Significant Portion of S&P 1500 Still Oversold
we remain oversold on a % of stocks > 10-day EMA basis using the broader S&P 1500... https://t.co/GmeGzMjJWb
Iran's 70% Output Cut Predicts Oil Price Decline
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
SNB Urged to Act Now to Weaken Franc
The SNB must be in the market ‘right now’ to weaken the Swiss franc, Sarasin’s Junius says https://t.co/0XhL08pNpx via @bbenrath https://t.co/IVfxoI9Dv0
Tech Funding Dwindles as Market Torpedo Approaches
Now some see it. I presented to clients a full week ago: "Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds" Update here: There's A Torpedo Headed For The US Stock Market But It's Not The One You Think https://t.co/zzV2LfHfgz
VIX Must Settle Before Equity Buy Signal Triggers
my volatility $VIX vs. S&P 500 $SPX model is "into the zone" and now will require the $VIX to settle to fire a buy signal for equities... https://t.co/SP0txifsUA
U.S. Gas Prices Hit Highest Since Summer 2024
The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024 @WSJmarkets https://t.co/6mDhre9ozD https://t.co/UVDG3Mq2Rd
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
ES Futures Slip to 200‑Day MA, Brief Bounce
$ES_F down to the 200 day MA and a bounce for now. TBD where it ends up... https://t.co/bWFRDuQQ4U
Buy Gold Above $5200 as Dollar Strength Persists
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Market Fear Peaks: Gap Widest Since 2000
Either the crash the market is pricing in arrives — or this is peak fear. Why? VIX at 32. SPX moving at 14%. The gap between fear and reality is the 5th widest since 2000: -Jan '09 (GFC): +24.4 -Jan '21 (Meme...
S&P 500 Weekly RSI Oversold—Selling Now Likely Too Late
the S&P 500 $SPX is RSI(5) oversold on the weekly chart for the first time since the Mar/Apr '25 period... we typically see this happen once/year... a reminder that suddenly becoming negative at this(that) point and selling all your stocks,...
VRT Joins S&P 500 After Friday Close
$VRT was added to the S&P 500 after the close last Friday. Chart courtesy of @marketsurge @IBDinvestors #IBDPartner https://t.co/nBBYFdAKO8
Iran Conflict Could Halt Grain Surplus Recovery
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
Hormuz Closure Threatens India's Energy Supply
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
Proposed Bill Could Halt Rental Construction, Raise Rents
Are elected officials about to pass the "Rental Inflation bill?" The requirement to sell future Build-to-Rent homes to homeowners within 7 years will effectively stop the construction of rental homes, decreasing new supply and thus increasing rents. https://t.co/SEU7Kc03c3
Prolonged Hikes Risk Pushing Economy Into Recession
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Central Banks Stay Hawkish
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
Discussing How to Bring Oil Below $100
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
Vanguard ETFs Net $7B Inflow as Others Lose $5B
Flows were def risk-off-ish last week, which caused net number to slow drastically, led by the trading crowd faves $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $HYG. The Vanguardians however didn't blink. Get this: Vanguard ETFs took in $7b last week, the rest of...
Simple Technical Trade Plans for SPX and Gold
Following the YouTube analysis , here are my simple technical trade plans on SPX & Gold (as of now)
Back-to-Back Quad3s Signal High US Equity Volatility
In today's Early Look: "Flying F-Quad3s" We’re now in what we affectionately call the F-Bucket of US Equity Volatility with an updated Quarterly Nowcast for back-to-back #Quad3s in Q2 and Q3 of 2026 What do you do with that? You fly these...
Recurring Collapse Patterns Reveal True Market Drivers
3 patterns that repeat every single time a growth stock collapses, and Tesla, Bitcoin and Palantir are all showing them right now. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis tells you the market gets the pricing right. I have spent decades showing why that...
From 57% Plunge to 400% Gain in 11 Years
17 years ago today the S&P 500 bottomed after losing nearly 57%. That started an 11 year long bull market that gained more than 400%. https://t.co/yorh6ENKeo
U.S. Becomes Net Energy Exporter, Yet Oil‑Price Sensitive
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
Stay Calm: Regular Investing Beats Market Volatility
Been on bbcnews explaining why financial markets are going haywire due to a spike in energy prices. If you have a pension or other investments don’t panic, keep calm and carry on as bouts of market volatility are usual for...
Brent Surge Drives Spike in VIX Correlation
BIG OIL MOVES = FUEL FOR HIGHER CORRELATIONS Front-month Brent up ~55% over the past month. VIX contingent on Brent front-month futures +/- 50% in 1M: Median: 33.9 Average: 44.4 Max: 76.5 Min: 27.6 Current: 32.2
German Gas Prices Surge to €60/MWh, Sixfold US Cost
Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US. https://t.co/4kxjaKHMGh
Save 1‑3% of Home Value Yearly for Repairs
If your roof needs a $45,000 repair 20 years from now, that means you should be saving $2,250/year, or $187.50/month Do you do this? Almost nobody does A shortcut: Save 1%-3% of the price of the house -- PER YEAR -- for...
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
China Approves $4 Gas Price Hike Nationwide
China gives the all-clear for retail gas and diesel prices to rise in its regular price review. State media said it's likely to mean an additional ~RMB25 / US$4 to fill a tank https://t.co/x9kKlWXOn3
G7 Reserve Coordination Eases Market Shock, Dollar Firm
Reports G7 will discuss coordinated release of strategic reserves is helping to stem the worst of the markets' reaction to the weekend developments. Still, USD is mostly firmer, rates higher, and equities lower. See https://t.co/4OVnPnHNHB https://t.co/PN5lizMKsV
Positive VIX Spot‑Future Spread Signals Bearish Market
Here's the spread between spot VIX and the front month future. Positive spread is bearish. https://t.co/598aRc7d3r
Low Rates Trap Sellers, Stalling Housing Turnover
Symptom of the low mortgage rate golden handcuffs narrative that’s keeping housing market turnover depressed
US Stocks Just Starting to Sneeze, Put/Call Signals Downturn
US equities are only starting to sneeze. When it does, droplets fall everywhere, and you get infected. S&P500 and the CBOE Put/Call ratio. #SP500 #PutCallRatio #StockMarket $SPX $SPY #GlobalMarkets #PutCallRatio #TechnicalAnalysis #indiacharts https://t.co/hkGs4mAlj7
California Gas Prices Spike, Prompting Trump EO Talk
Californians: what prices are you seeing at the pump? Could be the right moment for @realDonaldTrump to issue $SOC EO. Getting oil through Hormuz past the Iranians easier than getting it to California past @CAgovernor et al.
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
Spotting the Bottom and Trading Tech Amid Fear
A short video, sharing my view on: 1. What will make this market bottom 2. How to trade technology stocks when fear is in the market. https://t.co/g39ErSlEhI
1990
log real oil in 2026 dollars. persian gulf, early 1990s at ~$73, in 2026 dollars. underlying is PGCRARLT INDX DES https://t.co/ZaA76mNpOi
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Fossil Fuel Prices Surge While Renewables Remain Unfazed
Another Monday morning, more energy market turbulence. After fossil fuel prices stabilised somewhat towards end of last week they are reaching new highs. Renewable electricity does not as the sun & the wind don’t care much for what happens in...
Qatar Delays LNG Expansion to 2027 After Drone Attack
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
VIX Futures Reverse After Testing 30, Volatility Looms
$VX 30 was tested overnight but VIX futures reversed from there. May still be a spicy day ahead of us. https://t.co/NDJwW1XZhG
Iran War and Oil Surge Amplify US Labor Market Risks
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
23 Years of Dividend Growth Amid Volatile Uptrend
Couple of impressive aspects to #CKN - 23 years of Dividend growth and ShareScope showing the Share Price Chart in an Uptrend for 23 years (coincidence?). Quite wide swings in the Uptrend Channel though. I don't hold.
Master Gamma and Throttle for Pro Risk Management
GAMMA @t1alpha If you don't know where Gamma and its Throttle are, you really don't know how to manage risk like Macro Pros @Hedgeye do https://t.co/fU17MkB83v
FTSE's 5‑Wave Decline Signals European Bear Market
Is the European Bear Market officially here? A 5-wave decline on the FTSE is currently underway, which will confirm the major trend reversal: Check the exact chart structure link: https://t.co/4oJ2BVaD7J #FTSE100 #UKStocks #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis $UKX https://t.co/hEs6rEDuGu
IEA Stockpiles Insufficient Due to Low Release Rates
About any IEA oil stocks release: ✔️ Volume may not be an issue. At 1.2 billion barrels government stockpiles and 0.6 bil barrels commercial stockpiles, the volume is enough *in theory* to offset the loss of 20 mil b/d for 90...
Oil Prices Hit $100, Crisis Likely Deepens
"This may be a war but it's also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we've ever seen in modern history:" Mizuho's Jordan Rochester. "Oil is now on a $100pb handle and it might be there to stay," with greater likelihood...
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)