Strait Disruption Could Drop 2026 Oil Demand Below IEA Forecast
The @IEA projects that the world would use ~104 million barrels per day in 2026. With the disruption in the disruption in the Strait we are already predicted to go down to an average of 100mbpd for 2026-- maybe lower.🧵
Inventory Climbs, Listings Far Below Crash‑era Peaks
Surging inventory 😏 … New listings were 77,000 last week. During the housing crash years, weekly numbers ranged from 250K to 400K per week for years. We likely won’t reach 100K during the upcoming peak weeks, which will arrive soon...
Solid Breakouts Ahead, Watch Consolidation Signals
Solid breakouts, be mindful of consolidations: #GOOG: Overbought RSI & Stochastic, $319 first gap #AAPL: Overbought Stochastic, RSI is ok, no gaps, some indecision #ORCL: Overbought RSI, Stochastic and Bollinger breached (big time), first gap at $172 💚🔁 for more
Invest $5k in AI’s Core Infrastructure Bottlenecks
Thoughts? I break down how I'd invest $5,000 in the critical bottlenecks powering AI: water and cooling infrastructure ($1,000 in VRT and PHO), energy solutions ($3,000 in nuclear via Oklo and CCJ), and compute ($1,000 in IonQ and Nvidia). These...
Learn From Mistakes, Seize Dips for Future Gains
I can’t throw rocks at @CathieDWood for making a stupid investment move. I sold my Apple in 2003 when I took a job at Microsoft. I doubled my money, thought I was brilliant. It was the equivalent of something like $.25....
VIX Fell 44%—One of History’s Biggest Crashes
My broken market neutral brain sees this and thinks if I bought VIX and stocks on a 3 beta which is a totally reasonable idea ex-ante I won given the market move
Amazon’s Overbought Signals Hint at Impending Pullback
AMZN: Upper Bollinger Band breached + overbought RSI have preceded notable pullbacks for Amazon. While the $213 may remain open (like $176 from 2025's bounce), other gaps are active magnets ahead of earnings: $250, $240, and $233. #QQQ
Nornickel Boosts 2025 Earnings on PGM Gains, Asian Sales
Nornickel lifted 2025 earnings as stronger PGM prices and rising Asian sales offset nickel market weakness. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/nornickel-2025-earnings-rise-as-pgm.html
Permanent Death‑tax Relief Paves Way for Full Repeal
This is what two generations of steady work gets. Lesson for other issues. Now death tax relief is permanent thanks to the Working Families Tax Cuts. As a result, it’s much easier to kill the death tax now compared to...
Industrials Now Outpace S&P 500 with 4.6‑point Premium
Industrials now trade at a 4.6-point premium to the S&P 500. Historically, they've traded in line or below the broader market. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/hOtouHjlPA
Rakuten Cashback: Two Key Tips for Easy Money
Cashback sites are my favourite dead easy money win. *Rakuten* is one I sleep on sometimes - but it has 2 things worth knowing.
Microreactors Go Public, Target $1/kWh with Military Orders
These are microreactors and they are all going public… @oklo @RadiantNuclear Valar Atomics Aalo Atomics Antares Nuclear They start at $1/kWh and will need orders from the US Military bases to scale up production and get costs down to something reasonable.
Invest when Stock Earnings Yield Exceeds Risk‑free Rate
Buffett doesn't check the ticker every morning. He checks whether earnings yield still beats the risk-free rate. When stocks yield more than bonds, you're being paid to be patient. When they don't, patience has a price. Do the math. Then do it again.
NASDAQ 100 Posts Longest Rally Since 2013, Miners Surge
Narratives 1. NASDAQ 100 EXTENDS RALLY TO 13 DAYS, LONGEST STREAK SINCE 2013 2. Return since October Silver Miners $SIL +56% Oil Services $OIH +47% Copper Miners $COPX +46% Gold Miners $GDX +45% Natural Gas Equities $FCG +28% Uranium Sector $URNM +26% Mag7 $MAGS 0.00%
Avoid Absurd Tail Risk for Sub‑SOFR Yields
I don’t think taking absurd tail risk to earn yield below SOFR is a good idea but that’s just me https://t.co/qw0D0qMyP9
China’s EV Surge Fuels Bullish Lithium Outlook
China’s EV production capacity: >20 million vehicles/year Actual EV production (2024): ~12.9 million China exported >1.2 million EVs in 2024 Everyone should go long Lithium…
Easter Bounce Vs. Rate Cuts: What Drove Recovery?
Was it lower #mortgagerates or the Easter holiday rebound that caused a quick recovery in the data? We take a look at that with this weekend's tracker. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Superstar Cities Thrive While Others Face Steep Decline
Japan is an advanced case of trends present in nearly every developing country and it seems like: (a) superstar cities will be fine, (b) second tier cities/regional hubs will struggle, and (c) everything else -- smaller cities, towns, rural areas...
INTL ETF: Active, High‑Quality Global Core Alternative
Looking beyond the S&P 500? The $INTL ETF offers a concentrated, active take on global stocks, focusing on high-quality companies abroad. A potential core alternative to passive int'l funds. Investing
US Oil Exec Would Slash Capex Amid Hormuz Price Gap
If I was a US oil exec witnessing how Hormuz’s closure for 7 weeks (& counting) has left US oil prices far below global prices while E&P stocks (XOP) have underperformed SPX since March 2, I’d cut 2026 capex, lay...
NVDA RSI Overbought Signals Potential Bullish Continuation
NVDA: The RSI is overbought for the first time since Oct2025. Next week will be key: Will the overbought condition persist, as in 2023, 2024, and 2025, or was this a "one-off" move before a decline similar to last October?...
IMF Underestimates Growth After Major Economic Shocks
IMF growth forecasts are much too pessimistic when they come right after big shocks. It was that way in Apr. 2025 after "Liberation Day" and it's like that again now. I talked about this on this morning's live stream that...
Four Picks Deliver 33‑68% Gains Since Last Talk
Enjoyed the interview with @moneytalkstweet. Revisited 4 stocks from my last Money Talks appearance (Nov 2025): $HPS.A Gain: 33%, Argan $AGX Gain: 68%, Viemed $VMD Gain: 53%, Cipher Pharma $CPH Gain: 37% - detailing current ratings + we talk...
Wholesale Diesel $2 Cheaper—Truck Stops Won’t Pass Savings
The spread of retail to wholesale fuel is almost $2.00 a gallon. This is the second-highest spread we have ever measured. What this means: Large carriers buy their fuel on wholesale rack arrangements and pay a floating index price (OPIS)....
Elasticity Fuels Wild Commodity Bull Market
A top bull market in commodities is elasticity. The front US natural gas future made an up about 100% to down 30% round turn in 1Q. Crude oil may be next. https://t.co/f9xXlI5GLv
QuidelOrtho Mispriced: 2026 Cash Flow Bet Could Double Shares
QuidelOrtho stock is down ~70%, but a new analysis says it's mispriced. The bet? If management's 2026 free cash flow turnaround works, shares could double. High-risk, high-reward play. investing
Better Spread Levels Keep Mortgage Rates About 1% Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels of 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.39% today, not 6.29%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.02% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
Iran Shifts Tactics: Stock Manipulation Over Oil, Gunboats Attack
Can Iranians be pumping and dumping stocks instead of oil? Iranian gunboats fire on tanker after Strait of Hormuz closed again.
Scorecards Reveal Key Metrics for NBIS and CRWV
Scorecards for $NBIS and $CRWV Subscribe my substack for more deep dive insights and analysis
Recent Dip Fuels Multi‑
The past 3-6 month provided opportunities for all 6 accounts. 401k 403b 529 lower prices helped long term average cost. BOS account carved out 7% Swing account got active again when $SPX & $qqq reclaimed the 8/21day Active account is active same...
MSTR Bounce Highlights Overvalued Price versus 200WMA
$MSTR bounce right in center of the zone. Low odds this plays out like last cycle, I'd just say when everyone was big braining 'btc yield', 10K hours of study et price was already 500% above the 200wma. ...
Market Wizards Reveal Post‑Correction Trading Tactics
How do Market Wizards Trade After a Correction? I just published a compilation from my interviews of key clips from top traders discussing how they positon and find market leaders Featuring @Upticken @markminervini @OliverKell_ and @dryan310 https://t.co/X2qEqRb2oW
Companies Overpay Now, Ignoring Munger’s Cheap‑Buy Warning
Munger didn't sugarcoat it: companies bought almost nothing when stocks were cheap. Now they're buying hand over fist at the top. Capital allocation is where management tells you the truth about their judgment. Most are failing the test.
Most Bond Investors See Credit Spreads Overvalued, BofA Says
BofA: The large majority of bond investors think credit spreads are overvalued $LQD $HYG https://t.co/Q8Lsx1wWCz
Learn VWAP Futures From Top Trader on May 9
Austin Silver @austinsilverfx 10+ years of trading experience and one of the most respected voices in VWAP futures trading 📊 Learn from the world's top traders on May 9 https://t.co/0B9XQYYWxC
Conventional Financing Dominates While Cash Share Stays Small
Just in case you woke up wanting to see financing and cash since 2009. Check out how dominant conventional financing has been (brown). I think many people think cash is that prominent. https://t.co/duZai0iwSs
S&P 2002 Bottom Yields 1156% Gain, Gold Lags
Since the bottom in the S&P 500 in 3q 2002: SPX Total Return (blue): Up 1,156% SPX Total Return priced in gold (red): Down 17.5% https://t.co/Ar8IPnAqOe
Brazil's High Money Growth Fuels Inflation Above Target
Brazil's March inflation is 4.14%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3%/yr inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Intel's Packaging Wins Set Stage for Wafer Deals
Intel has made great strides. I was one of the only analysts that gave them a shot when the company had been written off for dead by most. They’re definitively getting advanced packaging from big XPU players. I called this...
NYSE Advance-Decline Hits Record High, Signaling Weak Breadth
Stock market breadth is so weak the NYSE Advance-Decline line just hit new all-time highs.
Raising Cash in a Bull Market Costs You
See what happens when you decide to raise all that cash during a raging bull market? You lose.
AMD Hits New ATH; Next Target $295 Resistance
$AMD - Made a new all time high this week. The next upside target is the 1st yearly resistance at $295. https://t.co/rbGWY99L42
SPX Beats 2025 High, Yet Valuation Is Cheap
SPX has soared above its October 2025 price peak, but its P/E ratio is way lower now.
Senate Bill Lets Institutions Buy Fixer‑Uppers With 15% Repair Spend
Institutional investors could still buy single-family homes needing major repairs under the Senate housing bill—will they? It still allows institutional SFH resale acquisitions if they spend >15.0% of purchase price spent on repairs ResiClub PRO https://t.co/Xk3ZCcdQcW
Oil Prices Likely Stay Above $80 Amid Iran Conflict
$USOIL - Closed the week below the 10 week MA confirming that it made an intermediate term top in early March. Crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated(above $80) as long as the conflict with Iran isn't solved. https://t.co/BicUp8rpN4
Iran's Hormuz Control Threatens Global Energy Security
Security of Global Energy System Hinges on Iran If Iran asserts sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the dominoes begin to fall as other supply chokepoints are contested. PS - This morning, Iran resumed control of tanker traffic in the Strait #iranwar https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/security-of-global-energy-system
Good News Hits Open Markets, Bad News Follows Closed
The concerns I expressed about unanswered questions proved to be unfortunately prophetic. This week gave us yet another example of the pattern of good news while markets are open, followed by the real news coming as soon as they're closed.
Tech Leads Rally as Few Stocks Hit 52‑Week Highs
You can look at the market's rally to new highs in a couple ways: 1) Less than 10% of stocks at 52wk highs 2) Tech has resumed its leadership (sector rotation), and is in the early innings of the next leg higher Here's...
Know Your 401k Vesting Schedule Before You Quit
If you have a 401k, you need to understand vesting rules. It means how long you need to be employed to receive your employer’s match (your money is always yours) Common vesting schedule is ~33% per year for 3 years Check your vesting...
Price Drives Narrative, Not Just Reflects Reality
I wrote something internally awhile back about reflexivity, given what's taking place in software. Everyone knows the idea, price doesn't just reflect perception, it can shape it. When a stock is working, the questions / work is much more optimistic....