Huge XLY Call Purchase Ahead
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) big buy 4000 March $116 calls $12.45 with Amazon a top component reporting, been weighed down by Tesla
PE Investors Chase Smoothed Volatility, Not Real Returns
Back in 2019 I launched a private equity replication ETF, which provided PE returns in a liquid vehicle. After hundreds of meetings with allocators, I concluded that the primary reason they allocate to PE is the mark-to-model and smoothed volatility. The product...
Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.38%—survey Your Tolerance
4.40% --> average mortgage rate on all outstanding U.S. mortgages: 6.38% --> average mortgage rate today Homeowners: What’s the highest mortgage rate you’d accept on your next home purchase? Take our annual Housing Sentiment Survey here: https://t.co/t2Yn9pawIo
Stocks Digest Oil's New Highs, SPY Stalls
$spy morning glance as indices and stocks try and digest new move highs in OIL https://t.co/ywBD1SxyHC
Central Banks Maintain Strong Q1 Gold Purchases Despite War
While this captures two months pre war and while gold has likely been a source of funds for some foreign countries post war, central bank buying still strong in Q1. https://t.co/vQDtnkXVdj
Oil Rally Pushes WTI Past $105, Spikes OVX Volatility
US benchmark oil (WTI) is above 105 on a more than 5% climb today. Brent is near 110. Notably, the rally is stirring a commensurate rebound in the OVX volatility index - similar to the Mar 25 - Apr 2...
Offshore Dollar Deposits Top $14 Trillion, Dominance Grows
Despite all the noise about de-dollarization, the FT reports that offshore dollar deposits just SURPASSED 14 TRILLION DOLLARS. The dollar is FAR AHEAD of any rival and its lead is INCREASING. KING DOLLAR = REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/A48y0RhHY4
Intel Surges 10% on Bullish Opening and OTM Alert
$INTC up 10% now as bull flow continues from early opening bell alert and yesterdays big OTM buy alert
Buy Mining Stocks on Bad News, Profit Later
My favorite time to buy mining stocks? When there's bad news. Production delays. Accidents. Setbacks. Other investors panic. I accumulate. Why? The gold is still in the ground. They're just digging it out LATER. And later = higher prices. Be patient. Be contrarian. MiningStocks #BuyTheDip...
War‑Driven Inflation Undermines BoC Rate Hike Effectiveness
Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt It's so simple, the War In The Middle East creates inflation The BoC...
OPEC+ Collapse Threatens US Shale with Price Volatility
Au contraire, @WSJ: A fractured or absent OPEC+ is a disaster for the US oil industry and foreign policy. No OPEC+ = Wild Price Volatility = Gut punch for high-cost US shale oil, the first victim when oversupply...
40% Home Price Drop Triggers Massive Distress Sales
History indicates that a 40% nominal national home price crash would necessitate significant distress sales. https://t.co/h46Wqa4NpK
Long‑dated Oil Contracts Hedge Compute Bottleneck Risk
Long longer dated oil contracts continues to be a great hedge to the compute bottleneck trade https://t.co/VSubfUuObP
ERC Refund Extensions, Capital Gains Indexing, Donor Disclosure Updates
Tax News & Views Zippy ERC Refund Extension Roundup Taxpayer Advocate explains new ERC appeal extensions. Capital gain indexing back in play? Donor Disclosure in the courts. Zippers. Link in replies.
US Petroleum Stocks Tumble, 13.3 M Barrel Draw
Thereeeeee sheeeee goessssss US commercial petroleum inventories fell by a headline 17 million barrels, PLUS another 7.1 million barrels of SPR crude draws. 13.3 MMbbl total crude draw (comm + SPR), 6.1 MMbbl gasoline draw, 4.5 MMbbl diesel draw. https://t.co/81Zl4NqhBb
Brian Niccol's Turnaround Validates “Back to Starbucks” Plan
Two years ago, Starbucks issued a disastrous earnings report that ultimately spelled doom for Howard Schultz's handpicked CEO. On Tuesday, Brian Niccol delivered a milestone quarter that proved his "Back to Starbucks" plan appears to be working. $SBUX https://t.co/5Q7A4A2xVb
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.23, 30‑Year High
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.23 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 42% spike over the last 9 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.23/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/Rw1sNI6MuP
US Crude Stocks Drop; Distillates Hit 5‑year Low
EIA: US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.2 mb to 459.5 mb Significant products draw Distillates inventories are below the 5-year range https://t.co/s54OTlsxtI
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
Purchase App Data Shows 2% Weekly, 21% YoY Growth
Purchase application data update: 2% week to week growth. 21% year over year growth https://t.co/0rJaQcBlPc
Emerging Markets Shift to Gold as Dollar Reserves Shrink
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “...
SOXX's Parabolic Surge Signals Unusual Market Momentum
"When you see the $SOXX, that's absolutely gone parabolic, like literally a straight line, over the last few weeks... that's not normal" https://t.co/tqy78j543v
Spot Winning M&A and Buybacks with 10 Essential Charts
Billions of dollars are wasted every year on bad M&A and poorly timed buybacks. Michael Mauboussin’s updated 2025 paper on Capital Allocation explains exactly why – and how to spot the winners before the market does. I’ve distilled his latest research...
Partial Short-Cover Initiated in Today’s Tactical Update
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: April 29, 2026 - Dust up..." First move today is a (partial) short-cover - via The Lyons Share https://t.co/FjyJMVoZD7 https://t.co/aJA1YVsFyf
Global Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Lifting US Rates
Global bond yields still a story. 10 yr JGB yield at 29 yr high, German 10 yr bund yield at 15 yr high, and 10 yr gilt yield at 16 yr high today. Dragging up US long end yields.
Gifts Like Farage’s £5m Typically Avoid Tax
Lots of people asking if Farage would have been taxed on the £5m. The answer is: likely no. Gifts generally aren’t taxable. (save IHT, not relevant here) https://t.co/9XCFgiOsqA
Top NIFTY50 Stocks Plunge Over 25% From ATH
🚨 Popular NIFTY50 Stocks down from ATH 🚨 Tata Motors (Passenger Vehicles) -52.9% Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) -34.0% Infosys -33.2% HCL Technologies -32.4% ITC -32.1% Trent -31.4% HDFC Life Insurance Company -28.3% InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) -27.4% Tech Mahindra -26.7%
Iran's Storage Capacity Far Exceeds Admin's Short‑term Estimates
This is the key calculation here - how much room in floating storage and in onshore facilities. Admin’s calc that Iran will have no room in a few days is clearly just wrong
Memory Stocks Surge; NVDA Remains Core Long
📺 MEMORY STOCKS ARE EXPLODING & WHY I’M STILL LONG $NVDA Memory stocks are exploding after $STX delivered a blowout quarter, triggering massive upside across names like $MU and $SNDK. This group has been trend-perfect — higher highs, respecting moving averages, strong earnings...
Most Case-Shiller Cities See Price Drops, Midwest Holds Steady
12 of the 20 Case Shiller cities are showing home price declines vs last year. LA and DC slid into negative territory this month. Nationally, thanks to very tight supply in the midwest, home prices are still barely above zero...
Investing Beats Saving: $357k Extra by 65
John saved $200/mo from 25 to 65 in a savings account getting ~3%. At 65, he has ~$190k. Bob invested $200/mo from 25 to 65 getting ~7.25%/yr on average. At 65, he has $548k. $357k difference between saving vs investing. If you want...
Higher Rates, Energy Costs Spell Trouble for Import‑dependent Currencies
Rising rates and high energy costs are going to be bad for any currency whose country is a net importer of energy Going long JPY (or EM FX for that matter) right now is effectively calling the top on global bond...
ZIM Dividend at Risk as Freight Rates Cool
ZIM’s dividend is looking shaky as freight rates cool. The post-pandemic shipping boom is over, and with new vessel supply flooding in, earnings are expected to drop. A dividend cut feels inevitable, and the risk/reward has soured. 🚢 ShippingStocks
Bonds and Yen Remain Market’s Critical Focus
Just released this week's Scouting the Tape that follows up on last week's bond and Yen discussion. Continue to believe this is the most important area of the market. There is a lot going on here.
Iran Threatens Military Escalation over US Naval Blockade
Ha! Exactly what we foreshadowed in the Vanda Insights client briefing note earlier today. Iran can re-escalate militarily in the face of a continued US naval blockade. @VandaInsights
Research and Timing Matter Beyond “Buy What You Know”
Lynch also eventually set the record straight, saying people took his “buy what you know” advice out of context. Buying market leading popular consumer facing companies like Blockbuster video or K-Mart at the wrong time would have been a disaster. Both...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Fertilizer Surge, Threatens Planting
Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices. Hitting countries at what should be planting times. Pending food supply shortages and high prices. Hormuz—a global supply chain disaster.
Fed Holds Rates Hawkishly, Blames Iran War
🚨 FED DAY PLAYBOOK 🚨 3 things we KNOW happen today: ✅ No rate cut ✅ Hawkish hold ✅ Powell blames Iran war for global uncertainty The wild cards 👇 ❓ Does he stay on as a Fed governor? ❓ Inflation worry vs. growth...
Meta's China Risk Low Despite $21.8B Ad Spend
What is Meta’s China exposure? China has ordered Meta to reverse its Manus acquisition, threatening technology transfers and advertising revenue. It invites an interesting question: what is Meta's exposure to China? Despite an estimated $21.8BN in advertising revenue in the country,...
Proposed Housing Investor Ban Halts Builders, Hurts Real People
The Senate-passed bill banning institutional housing investors isn't yet law but has already "stopped home builders in their tracks" by scaring off investors & lenders. An instant case study of bad policy harming real people, even when just for show 😡 https://t.co/h5oaq2IAYN...
Semi Market
Damned If We Do and Damned If We Don't 💫Semi Surge Seems Stressed 💫Semi Reflexivity In Full View 💫The Stealth Buyer Still In The Room https://t.co/ObymQYFfzf
Premium Brands Holds 75% Upside Potential
This morning, Alta Fox published a press release and full thesis deck on $PBH CN (Premium Brands Holdings), a business we believe is significantly undervalued with 75%+ upside in our base case. The materials outline our investment thesis and highlight...
Big Tech Earnings Spotlight AI Monetization and Capex
We expect a big few days ahead from the Big Tech world as investors focus on AI monetization trends, cap ex levels, and the overall tone of business from Mag 7 tech stalwart earnings with tonight the Super Bowl of...
AI-Linked Firms Now Represent Nearly Half of US Market
"AI-linked companies, from “hyperscalers” to chip makers and power providers, already make up about 45% of the U.S. stock market" --@Spencerjakab https://t.co/iiypmMavNI
Rare Market Divergence: More Lows Than Highs After Record S&P
On Monday, the S&P 500 $SPY closed at a record high. The next day, at least 1% more stocks hit a 52-week low than a 52-week high. In 70+ years of history, that's happened twice. Yesterday was one. January 3, 2000 was...
Financial Freedom Makes Life Exponentially Easier
Life becomes 1000X easier when you have: - No car loan - No school loans - No credit card debt - 6 months of expenses saved - Automated monthly investments
Deutsche Börse Downgraded to Hold as Upside Caps
Deutsche Börse’s strong execution is now fully priced in. At a forward P/E of ~22x, upside looks capped—downgrading from Buy to Hold. Quality business, but fair valuation limits the risk/reward. Markets
Higher Rates Raise Investors' Opportunity Cost in Value‑add Real Estate
Don't think I appreciated the full impact of higher interest rates on the heavy value-add real estate business when rates increased initially in '22. The problem for operators isn't just the higher exit caps. It's the increased opportunity cost for investors of...
Key Index Shifts: Semis, EM, Industrials Signal Sentiment
Important index changes we think you should know about, in this week's ETF video below. Semis, Emerging Markets, Industrials, and flows as a sentiment barometer. Thanks as always for watching. https://t.co/QbnBM1ljrD
Profit by Positioning, Not Reacting, in Bubble Volatility
Bubble Dynamics Create Opportunity as Volatility Between FOMO and Fear Accelerates Bubbles aren’t just price. They’re behavior. 📈 FOMO → chase 📉 Fear → flush Edge = ⚡Fade both ⚡Trade both The fractal breathes in… then exhales hard. You don’t react — you position for it.