Debt Woes Could Spark Bond Market Revolt, Says Wilson
"If we don't find a way to grow out of the debt problem, the bond market will revolt... but I just don't see that right now." 🎙️ Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson https://t.co/6SRBAtt9a2
Deep Cash‑Flow Modeling Beats EPS for True Value
The senior analyst at a Tiger Cub who trained me on financial modeling back in '08 (shoutout Chris Laporte) walked me through the importance of deeply detailed cash flow builds. So much of the world is focused on EPS (certainly...
Science Meets Trend Following in New Moving Average Handbook
The Ultimate Moving Average Handbook: Bringing Science into the Art of Trend Following. Valeriy Zakamouline, a long-time contributor to the AA blog, has a great new book. High recommend for quant/trend geeks. https://t.co/LaMjdSaO6V https://t.co/GhX4f7qsBA
Mutual Export Controls Harm US, China—Time for Careful Rollback
As I have noted in several posts over the past year, there is a growing recognition that both the US and China have pushed export controls to levels that are damaging to each other’s economies. A Deal Waiting to Be...
Stocks Rise, Doubt Grows: Unprecedented Bullish Paradox
Building on what @fundstrat said about fuel in the tank... AAII bulls at a four-week low and S&P 500 at ATHs? It happened this week and it has NEVER happened before. Stocks are going higher, yet doubt is increasing. That's a...
Wholesale Diesel Plunges; Retail Lags—Buy Cost‑plus
Diesel wholesale rack prices have dropped $.70/gallon in the past week and could drop another $.50 -.70 gallon over the weekend. Meanwhile, retail diesel has only dropped $.15/gallon since last week and if past trends hold the truckstops will be...
Ten‑day Ratio at 1.68, Below 1.97 Threshold
Sorry, we're not. Using today's intraday data the ten-day ratio is 1.68. Threshold is 1.97.
Misguided Hot Takes Misrepresent Indonesia's Nuanced Foreign Policy
No kidding, really? Folks with all the nutty hot takes this week about how Indonesia has "jumped in bed with Washington" and is "booting China" from Southeast Asia in some American game of 463D chess have clearly never actually set...
Gold Jumps 19%, Bulls Eye Key Resistance
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Surges 19% - Bulls Test Key Resistance https://t.co/Vjtj8eVXWs $XAUUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ssUIryqB5v
Half of Global Markets Rebound Amid Iran Conflict
"Looking across 46 different country ETFs since the start of the Iran war, the global picture looks far more resilient than headlines and the chattering media's pundits would suggest. Nearly half of the world's major markets -- 20 out of...
Strait of Hormuz Reopens, Physical Oil Prices Converge to Futures
The blockade called Iran's bluff and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in response is a remarkable success in very little time. Physical oil prices (white) will now converge down to futures prices (orange), a scenario most didn't think...
Mid‑range Homes ($400‑500K) See Strongest Growth
More buyers at lower prices? Don't sleep on the trend. We're seeing the most growth right now in the region between $400K to $500K. More on my blog. https://t.co/k8PxYYpcrC https://t.co/ImgNJtdh6D
Global Fertilizer Shortages Will Worsen Before Easing.
Energy & fertilizer shortages will likely still become greater before they ease, with prices needing to bring down demand to the new supply levels after damage assessments. We'll likely see lower fertilizer levels globally over the coming year, although it...
JOJO Delivers Income via Actively Managed Tactical Fixed Income
$JOJO seeks to deliver income while actively managing credit risk. Tactical fixed income that rotates based on real market signals. Ask me about it. @leadlagreport https://t.co/NFC6i1OOBG
Quad Four: Historically the Bullest Phase of the Cycle
This feels like a Quad Poor rally. Does anyone know if we are in Quad Four right now? That historically is by far the most bullish of all the Quads.
War Slashes Growth in Middle East, Low‑Income Nations
The impact of the war on the global economy as measured by revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook: a very significant hit to the Middle East itself and Low-income Developing Economics. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in...
Exited Short Position Just Before Breakout Confirmation
...and just like that, I'm out of that extra short stocks exposure playing the range top test. Looks like we have a breakout - no need to stand in front of the train. Now let's see if this holds
You Can Simultaneously Long and Short the Same Market
Going long & short the same mkt is neither a myth nor a cop-out. #USDJPY #forex https://t.co/nltrE65m4U
Foreign Value Stocks Surge, Advisors Finally Warm Up
After being up around 30% last year, foreign/emerging value is up another 15-20% this year. You're seeing the narrative shift with advisors a bit, ever so slightly. It seems to be moving from "don't even bring up foreign stocks, they've underperformed...
Oil Dip to $60 Could Lift S&P 10%
While oil gurus and geopolitical experts were opining with confidence on the potential outcomes we said we don't know shit. Here is our DSR from 3/22. https://t.co/268Hkj6EKA Herein we just considered scenarios and how they play out in macro based...
MSTR Squeeze Triggered: 146.25 Spike Sparks Massive Rally
Had been eyeing $MSTR as nice squeeze play, 146.25 trigger yesterday, insane follow through today https://t.co/7MouHIuqKf
High‑Spread LSTA Merger Arb: Big Reward, 35% Risk
$LSTA merger arb for the brave👇 Spread just blew out to 48% on a cash offer. Tender postponed, buyer is hunting for financing at "better terms." Buyer previously licensed LSTA's drug. They know the asset. They want it. This is a definitive...
Leveraged ETF Buying Likely Absorbs Market Stall
Seller but jeez. The "Stall" and leveraged ETF buying will likely absorb. Of course deep call rolls at the close is delta for sale. https://t.co/RXUSfWqvTr
Unwarranted $13 Oil Drop Likely Manipulation, Prices Set to Rebound
🪔🩸The current $13 decline in oil prices is unwarranted and appears to be pure market manipulation with the announcement being made ahead of the market open. Fundamentals haven’t changed meaningfully since yesterday. Expect oil prices to recover soon
War's End Relieves Treasury Funding, Swap Spreads Expand
With the possibility of war ending, US Treasury funding pressure looks to be easing helping swap spreads widen. Nice move today https://t.co/q4hDJXSsiz
China's GDP Growth only Loosely Mirrors Real Economy
CER: "There is obviously to some extent a relationship between China's GDP growth number and the real economy. Although we don’t know exactly how closely those two things match." https://t.co/ARbicIVAH8
411k FHA Borrowers Face Equity Risk in Weak Markets
Doing a little more deep dive on FHA borrowers. How many people are "at risk" with low or negative equity and higher mortgage rates? About 411,000 since mid-2022. Many of the biggest FHA markets, like Phoenix and Houston, have had the...
U.S. Imports More Crude yet Remains Net Petroleum Exporter
GUIDE: U.S. crude oil and petroleum product trade balances. The United States is BOTH a major importer and exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. These trade patterns allow the U.S. system to balance. But the devil, as always, is in...
Housing Hope Delayed One Year, Still On Track
Good housing read from @conorsen. Housing hope delayed a year but not totally derailed feels about right. https://t.co/3R3f8NDfvG
Gold-Oil Ratio Soars, SPX Tied to Gold
Since Trump 2 Inauguration in January 2025: Left chart: Gold/oil ratio (red), oil (blue.) Right chart: SPX (blue); SPX priced in gold (red.) Trump keeps calling everything "golden"; maybe he's trying to tell us something🤔 https://t.co/0AihVavwpP
Selling Early Is Just One of Six Tape Strategies
I did sell my BOS tier buy, a bit early- but that's only one of Six time frames we go over to approach the tape
Simplify Your Taxes: Avoid Complex Investments to Cut Costs
"Simplify. If you have sticker shock when you pay to have your #taxes prepared, it may be because you have made your tax life unnecessarily complicated. Heavy trading in stocks or commodities makes your return prep more expensive. Cryptocurrency transactions and...
McDonald's Potato Chips Outproduce NVIDIA's Silicon Chips
In the mid-1990s, J.R. Simplot, McDonalds' biggest potato supplier, was on the Forbes 400. His main source of wealth was that he wrote a big early angel check into Micron.
Senior Deduction Falls Short of Tax‑free Social Security Promise
The senior deduction goes a long way toward fulfilling Trump’s campaign promise of no tax on #SocialSecurity, but not all the way for higher-income seniors. Tom O’Saben, an EA and director of government relations at @NATPTAX says that if he sees...
High Earners Cut Taxes with Short‑Term Rental Strategy
If you made six figures at your W2 last year and still felt personally victimized by your tax bill… Just know you’re just playing a game no one taught you how to win. One of the only ways W2 high...
Bull Market Surge Continues: Stocks Hit New Weekend Highs
I'm set to join @FrankCNBC on @CNBCClosingBell at the top of the hour (3pm ET) today with @AAmoroso_1 to discuss this bull market and what could be next. Name a better way to coast into a weekend with stocks at...
Contrarian Arbitrage: Long $TEAM, Short $SNDK
$TEAM Daily. AI star $SNDK set to replace bludgeoned software $TEAM in the Nasdaq-100 on Monday. A contrarian "arbitrage" pair trade would be Long $TEAM (or calls) and Short $SNDK (or puts). https://t.co/fVLrRiEHFK
Geopolitical Tensions Revive Value Investing, Future Uncertain
This week in value: The Iran War Has Fired Up Value Investing. But What Next? (Bloomberg) A century of value investing (IFA) Why Value Investing Works (And Why It Has to Stop Working First) (Safal) Third Avenue Management: Small-Cap Value Strategy Overview and Insights...
Dow’s Top Gainers Prove Index Still Thrives
The Dow isn’t just about “old companies”… it still moves. Here are some of the top performers this year: • CVX → +30.1% • CAT → +27.8% • VZ → +23.3% • JNJ → +18.6% • HON → +17.5% • MRK → +15.6% • WMT → +12.2%
Trump Claims Iran Clearing Hormuz Sea Mines
US President Donald Trump says Iran is "removing" all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz
WTI Oil Slides Below $90, Approaching $78 Benchmark
WTI oil back below $90 and nearing the key Landman Billy Bob benchmark: $78 https://t.co/9eqlZpaiPw
Never Trust Oil Price Forecasts, They’re Always Wrong
Just to be safe I'm going to assume every time an energy analyst predicts $200/barrel oil they will be wrong for all of eternity
Milwaukee Leads Home Price Gains; Austin Trails Losses
#NEW Home price shifts across America's 50 largest metro area housing markets Tightest: Milwaukee, WI (+5.7% YoY) Weakest: Austin, TX (-5.9% YoY) MoM = Month-over-month YoY = Year-over-year Without seasonal adjustment Analysis via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/Q58oWthGbA
Don’t Short $CAR When Nasdaq Gains 1%
I will not short $CAR on a day the Nasdaq is up 1% I will not short $CAR on a day the Nasdaq is up 1% I will not short $CAR on a day the Nasdaq is up 1% I will not short...
Netflix's EPS Beat Fueled by Breakup Fee, Not Growth
Netflix 'crushed' earnings last night: $1.23 EPS vs $0.76 expected, a 60% beat. Revenue $12.25B, up 16% year over year. The stock is down 10% today at $97. Why? Because the beat was fake. $2.8B of that EPS came from...
XLK Rallies 20% in 13 Days, Nearing Record
XLK up more than 20% in the past 13 days, something we've only seen at: Covid lows 2009 lows 2002 lows And a handful of times in the dot-com bust/decline. Biggest difference is none were even CLOSE to an all-time high, which XLK is making...
Closed Ally and Carvana April Call Spreads
sold to close $ALLY Apr 42 calls and $CVNA Apr 24 Exp 352.50/382.50 call spreads
Equity Risk Premium Near 4% Validates Current Valuations
With credit spreads still well-behaved and operating margins making new highs by the week, the valuation picture for US stocks remains justified, especially after the drawdown of the past few weeks. The chart below shows that the “fitted” equity risk...
Eight‑Dollar Spread Signals Diverging Crude Market Narratives
WTI crude settled at $91. Brent bounced back above $99. An $8 spread between global and US benchmarks is not noise — it's signal. The crude market is telling two different stories at once. Which one do you believe? https://t.co/oQckA8E8yd
Nasdaq 100 Posts 13th Straight Gain, Rare Since 2013
With the gap higher on the open, the Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its 13th straight session's advance. Last time we had a move comparable to this consistency was July 2013. Haven't really seen runs like these (consistency) historically where...