Duolingo Stock Mispriced, 132% Upside Target
New post: a detailed research report and writeup on Duolingo. We believe $DUOL is mispriced and offers asymmetric risk/reward from today's price. Our base case is around $210/share, or 132% upside. https://t.co/EWAe0WXpFI
S&P 500 Posts 7.9% Gain, 6th Best April Since 195
As we noted at the start of the month, things lined up for a big April, but this is even better than we could have imaged. S&P 500 currently up 7.9%, making it the 6th best April since 1950. https://t.co/jJIHkuF3eb
Trend Following Mirrors Delta Hedging, Yields ~8% Floor
Trend following is ~delta hedging. No surprise the payoff looks like a long straddle. Note the min PNL appears to be ~the expected annual return to equities at ~8%. Nice report from @larryswedroe, btw
SPX Futures Show Upside; Trim
No #630club on Fridays. I might do a quick 8:50 catch up to end the week.. SPX futures giving more upside follow thru to end the week.. Trim and trail and enjoy the weekend.. https://t.co/fH1CD4xBNZ
Peace Hopes Boost Turkey's Gold Reserves Amid Costly Peg
Prospects of peace are helping Turkey. The central bank's gold holdings rose for the first time in data for the week of April 10. Gold holdings are now down 123 tons since the start of the conflict, which is worth...
Apple Defies China Smartphone Slump, up 20% Year‑over‑year
Good news for $AAPL March quarter: China iPhone likely up 20% y/y vs expectations of up 15%. This is based on today’s Counterpoint data that I believe is directionally accurate. They report while total smartphone shipments in China declined...
GraniteShares' YieldBOOST ETFs Offer Weekly Distributions Over 100%
GraniteShares just announced weekly distributions for its YieldBOOST ETFs — some with distribution rates above 100%. Read here: https://t.co/Q5x1XPNPAg @WillRhind @GraniteShares
Long-Term Investment Thesis on HIMS and Peptides
This video shows part of my $RDDT investment thesis or you can click on this link for the full interview https://t.co/X7jWOIisLu I’ll be doing more interviews like this in the coming weeks… so I can walk through the investment thesis on...
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
Consistent Outperformance by Active Managers Is Rare
Very few active investors win consistently over time "While there some active money managers who “beat the market” over a year, two years or even five, very few are able to hold on to these excess returns as you lengthen...
Second‑Fastest Post‑WWII Rally Hits Overbought in 11 Days
Wild stat from BBG: - “One of the most powerful rallies since World War II” - Stocks took just 11 days to spike from oversold to overbought. - This was the second fastest rally in history, only surpassed by August 1982. https://t.co/PZmYgZTnSg
Crossing 7,000 Is Headline, Not Profit Driver
$SPY closes at 7,041 — the S&P 500 has never touched 7,000 before April 16, 2026. Round-number breakouts generate headlines. They don't generate returns. The question isn't whether we crossed 7,000. It's what you do the morning after. https://t.co/Bpn2GfpB2E
16 Trading Strategies + PSI5 Algorithm in One Package
Strategy Package: Rules for 16 trading strategies plus the PSI5 algorithm. Link in reply below 👇#tradingstrategy https://t.co/W6sONKYJo5
Indian Refiners Use Yuan for Iran Oil Purchases
Exclusive: Indian refiners pay for Iran oil in yuan via ICICI Bank, sources say https://t.co/jAwcjfRcHL
Record Treasury Leverage Threatens Global Fixed‑Income Stability
Hedge Fund Leverage in Treasuries at Record Highs. Torsten at Apollo ...any forced unwinding of these leveraged positions could send shockwaves through global fixed-income markets. https://t.co/vtq5KWmWLE
Yields Spike Three Months After New Fed Chair Takes Office
BofA Hartnett: Market usually tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts https://t.co/zn2zh9y9nl
SF $2k/Ft Homes Ripple Into Bay Suburbs
Single-family homes going for $2,000/ft in SF is going to have trickle-down effects, just curious whether it shows up more in Bay Area suburbs or the kinds of places SF people leave when they can’t afford to stay. @mikesimonsen @NewsLambert
NYC Pension Funds Allocate $4B to Citywide Housing
Big news: we just announced our plan to invest $4B of NYC’s pension funds in financing housing across the five boroughs
Aussie Dollar Hits Highest Yen Level Since 1990, Signaling Risk‑On
BofA Hartnett: nothing says risk-on more than Aussie dollar (cyclical FX) at highest levels vs. Japanese yen (funding FX) since Oct'90 https://t.co/5Xbt4PwZjW
Lower Power Prices Threaten Generators' Earnings, Reeves Warns
Rachel Reeves's comments raised concerns that lower power prices would hurt earnings for generators https://t.co/Bh5ZRHm2Oh
Analysis Right, Patience Wrong: Missed Nifty Target
Exited early from 24000 CE… and of course it went straight to target after that 🙂...Booked decent, but market clearly said “thoda aur ruk jaata toh better hota” Classic.🤣💥 Target was 415...420, it printed 424. Sometimes analysis right hota hai, patience wrong ho...
Critical 0‑90 Days Determine Food Crisis or Stagflation
The supply gap is just beginning. If a peace deal comes within days, we’re still in a critical 0–90 day window: markets could absorb the shock, fertilizer flows resume, and a global food crisis be avoided. If not, risks escalate...
Identifying the Market’s Biggest Threat Amid Uptrend
Hey @grok What could cause the stock market to reverse here and go lower? What is its greatest risk right now in this uptrend?
Buffett Says Stock Market Is Wealth‑Building Essential
Why The Key To Building Wealth Is Investing In The Stock Market According To Warren Buffett https://t.co/rGb9KmrsZ6
Decoding the Rally: How to Trade What's Next
Discussing whether the blistering stock market rally makes sense and how to think about trading what's next, today with @julesaly on @ausbiztv https://t.co/s01ngUXDJV
Netflix Slides 9% After Guidance Cut, Despite Bull Consensus
"Group Stink" has a foul odor on Fin TV... and cheerleading has a place on the floors of athletic events and not in the business media. After the close $NFLX reduced guidance and the shares fell by about nine percent (-$10). In...
Mark Mobius: Early Emerging‑Markets Guru Offers Timeless Investor Lessons
Mark Mobius was among the earliest to recognise the long-term potential of emerging markets. He was a true "Emerging Markets Guru"! His deep research, on-ground understanding & conviction offer enduring lessons for investors. https://t.co/nY0eK5KRBt @MotilalOswalLtd @Pun_ditry
Four-Step Model: From Liquidity Grab to Target
Entry model to focus on ↓ TS → CISD → IFVG → DOL • TS: Liquidity grab sets the trap. • CISD: Market shifts direction. • IFVG: Entry zone appears. • DOL: Confirms overall bias. Flow: Grab → Shift → Entry → Target #reelsvideo
Heavyweights Near 52‑Week Highs After Long Consolidation
S&P 500 constituents within 5% of 52w highs that haven’t had one in 50 sessions. This is basically your bull case: quite a few heavyweights here that have spent a long time consolidating. https://t.co/MznH2PfRs7
Infrastructure Investment Fuels China’s Q1 Growth Amid Weak Consumption
1/3 NYT: "Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year." This is exactly it. https://t.co/nM9A94Bq3q
China's Stagnant Imports Pose Bigger Trade Challenge than Exports
1/2 Soumaya Keynes notes that while China's surging exports may be a problem for many countries, they are the smaller problem. The bigger problem is that China's imports have barely grown at all. The more general point is that free trade...
Jardine Matheson Poised to Dominate Hong Kong Grocery Market
Jardine Matheson is in talks to acquire CK Hutchison's supermarket business ParknShop and merge it with Wellcome. Competition in Hong Kong's grocery industry would go down significantly, with the combined entity controlling >50% of the market. https://t.co/4MD3n7ptN1
South32 Bets on Copper, Zinc Amid Post‑2028 Supply Gaps
South32 is focusing on copper and zinc projects as it sees major supply gaps emerging after 2028. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/south32-copper-and-zinc-project.html
Rupee Weakness Drops India to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: When measured in dollar terms, India falls from 4th to 6th in global GDP rankings. This slip can be laid at the rupee's doorstep. With the rupee down ~11% in FY26, India’s GDP is smaller in dollar terms. India...
Q1 GDP Hits 5.3% Despite Sector Slowdown
1Q GDP (advanced estimate) 5.3% as projected. Slowdown seen across all sectors. By sectors (vs 4Q25): •Services 5.4% (4Q25: 6.3%), •Manufacturing 5.8% (6.1%), •Construction 7.8% (11.0%), •Agriculture 2.8% (5.4%) •Mining & quarrying -1.1% (+2.0%) Sumber DOSM Still good growth nonetheless. BNM full year...
Russian Oil Revenues Plunge 22% in April Despite Price Rise
MOSCOW, April 16 (Reuters) - Russian state oil and gas revenues, which account for about a quarter of budget income, are set to fall around 22% year on year in April, hit by a jump in subsidies to refineries despite...
Emerging Markets Set for Strong Post‑Conflict Surge
The coming wave for emerging markets will get stronger in the post-conflict era - #emergingmarkets #EM #dollar #capital #liquidity https://t.co/7DuKFyjwOx
Holding Cash Early Beats Desk Decisions Later
Seth Klarman proves that the best investing decisions aren't made at a desk, they're made years earlier, when you decided to hold cash while everyone else was fully invested. Preparation isn't passive. It's the most aggressive thing a value investor can...
Oil Dips on Trump's Israel‑Lebanon Ceasefire Optimism
Oil prices fall as Trump announces Israel-Lebanon ceasefire Oil prices retreated on Thursday after President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the prospect of ending the war with Iran, even as the broader energy market remained on edge over continued disruptions...
Nifty Call Rise Driven by Flow, Not Volatility
Holding Nifty 21 Apr 24000 CE, avg around 350.80. Spot above 24.3k, but IV still relatively muted near ~17. That tells me this move is more flow driven than vol expansion. From a GammaGrid Insights view, price is moving in a positive...
Expensive U.S. Cities See Sharp Housing Price Swings
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, March 2026. From “Mansion Shortage” in AI-bubble-epicenter San Francisco infecting mid-tier home prices, to Austin & Oakland prices plunging over 25% since 2022 https://t.co/gQYh2m0pnZ https://t.co/v3Kk4XR5CY
Netflix Q1 Beats Estimates, Margin Gains Surge
$NFLX Q1'26 Results: ↗️$12.250B rev (+16.2% YoY, +1.7% QoQ) beat est by 0.7% ↗️GM (51.9%, +1.9 PPs YoY) ↗️EBIT Margin (32.3%, +0.6 PPs YoY) ↗️FCF Margin (41.6%, +16.3 PPs YoY)🟢 ↗️Net Margin (43.1%, +15.7 PPs YoY)🟢 ↗️EPS $1.23 beat est by 61.8%🟢 Regional Breakdown UCAN ↘️$5.245B rev (+13.6%...
China Triples Export Controls, Turns Supply Chains Into Leverage
In a counterattack to America’s aggressive protectionist measures, China has nearly TRIPLED its use of export controls in the last 5 years. Beijing is turning its supply-chain dominance into geopolitical leverage. CHINA'S MESSAGE = IF YOU ATTACK US, WE WILL COUNTERATTACK....
Negative Electricity Prices Resurface in France and Germany
Negative electricity prices return to France, Germany #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/XO7eBWX6Nn https://t.co/0TW2dipTGo
Insiders Double Buys Globally, Korea Leads; Auto, Tech, Leisure Hotspots
Asia insider buying activity: 2x buys than sells in all major countries except China. Heavy insider buying in Korea in late March. Industry clusters in: - Chinese auto industry eg Geely - Technology hardware - Leisure & personal goods eg Anta Sports https://t.co/OjciIwJN3A
US Sanctions Backfire, China Gains One‑Third of Iran Trade
In 1995, China accounted for virtually ZERO of Iran's trade. Today, it accounts for 1/3. Ill-advised US sanctions on Iran have BACKFIRED. They’ve allowed China to increase its sphere of influence. https://t.co/JUoFF3ACJR
Middle East Conflict Triggers First LNG Export Decline in Decade
Global LNG exports are forecast to DROP this year for the first time in over a decade 🚢⚠️ This is a big turnaround. Analysts expected supply to rise by more than 7% in 2026. But now the Middle East conflict is...
Explaining Dual Consolidated Losses in Cross‑Border Tax
Today, I wrote an email explaining dual consolidated losses in the cross-border context. I feel like @adonnelly50 is the only person who would appreciate this tweet.
Tax Refunds Lose Value—Adjust Your W‑4
Zohran Mamdani released a copy of his tax return to reporters. His 2025 tax refund was $7,011... That means he earned 0% interest on it. He could've invested it throughout the year or earned ~$200 from HYSA. Tax refund isn’t free money. Adjust...
Free Money Show Talk on Green Line Breakouts
Dr. Wish @WishingWealth will be doing a special presentation on April 22nd at the Money Show. He'll be discussing the green line breakout setup and GMMA charts You can register for free here 👇 https://t.co/YdjHQcqvCP