UST 5s30s Struggles Above 100bps, Steepeners Fade
UST 5s30s having trouble holding above 100 bps which makes sense. It has been a nice ride for steepeners the past few weeks so a nice round number spot to lean against 5s here https://t.co/Z59ZwWo3hI
S&P Hits Fresh High, but only 2.4% Stocks Follow
Not a lot of confirmation by individual stocks in yesterday's new high in the S&P 500. Just 2.4% of stocks made a new 12-month high as well. $SPX https://t.co/lrAHiepiR3
PLTR’s Bullish Candle Signals Bottom, Targets $145
PLTR: Price action is golden. The bullish candle printed on Friday validated by volume was a powerful bottoming signal I analyzed here for everyone. After the current +11% rally, $145 may serve as a consolidation zone. Software is coming back....
Tesla Call Volume Hits 5th‑Highest Ever at 3.95M
yesterday was the 5th highest TSLA call volume ever. 3.95mm contracts #1 was 4.86mm on election night 11/8/24
TIG Poised for Value Boost Amid Strategic Sale
I think we might see some action on $TIG soon. They have been pretty quiet so far, while normally the full financials would already have been published. $TIG is undergoing a strategic review, basically intending to unlock the large SOTP value...
Structural Bull Market Emerges Amid Post‑War Inflation
In the face of heat, you get to invest and buy at lower prices - but can we overcome our problems and head higher? What should we be aware of, and how should we position ourselves to take advantage of...
Open Hormuz Now to Stabilize Global Oil Markets
I'm so, so ready for this war to be over, for shipping traffic through the Strait to resume, and to spend the next month or two tracking the nitty gritty of how the short-term shock rippled through the global oil...
Berkshire, Walmart Diverge Sharply Nov‑Feb, Biggest in 5 Years
Berkshire and Walmart have typically had a similar “shape” of relative performance vs the S&P 500. Nov-Feb was easily the biggest divorce in past 5 years. $BRK $WMT https://t.co/NP54QHbFzJ
Russia Seeks Escape From Steepest Three‑year Contraction
Russia looks for a way out of its sharpest economic contraction in three years https://t.co/qV7fi62bZB
Nygren Sees Adobe Undervalued, Buys at Discount
Bill Nygren buys $ADBE in Q1 "We believe that the company retains durable competitive advantages across multiple growing markets, and that recent skepticism has created an opportunity to invest in this highly profitable and well-managed category leader at a meaningful...
IGV Stocks Lag Behind Tech and S&P 500
software $IGV stocks have been (known) laggards... still downtrending vs. technology $XLK sector... still downtrending vs. S&P 500 $SPX... https://t.co/CSVF7yxoha
J.B. Hunt Q1 Earnings Surge on Cost Cuts, Volume Gains
New blog post - J. B. Hunt Q1 Earnings Boost By Cost Initiatives & Higher Volumes https://t.co/sGDzdAk30f Nothing fancy - I figured I'd mostly share quotes that I found interesting and also a few bits from Stifel's Bruce Chan's note on...
Recession Fears Dispelled: Jobs, Manufacturing Surge, Markets Soar
FEAR WAS WRONG. THE DATA JUST PROVED IT. Everyone was screaming recession… but something weird just happened. The jobs numbers came in strong. Manufacturing surged. US, UK, China & Australia all beat expectations. $SPX just hit fresh record highs 🚨 The fear was loud....
Hamptons Home Prices Hit Record, Surge over 30%
Lots of bonus cash, too little supply: "The median sales price for the Hamptons surged 18.3% annually to $2.4M, highest on record, Average sales price also surged 31% to $4.3M, the highest on record -@jonathanmiller
SPX Climbs 10.7% in Just 11 Days
New Daily Post for subscribers about the 10.7% $SPX gain in the past 11 days. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/XAvMer9tik
Big Chocolate Makers Likely Buying the Cocoa Dip
who's buying the dip in cocoa prices? (i mean i hope @Nestle @Hersheys are)... https://t.co/57SRUqV4cu
Oracle Set for Strongest Week Since $455B RPO Announcement
Oracle poised for its best week since its $455 billion RPO announcement in September $ORCL https://t.co/DkWELLGfV6
Iran's Job and Inflation Data Drive Oil Analysis
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage...
Mean Reversion Strategies Outperform SPY, Up Over 40% Since Inception
Mean reversion (MR) for subs. Since inception: -#ES_F bonus MR +44.7% (May 21, 2025) YTD +15.7% -Bonus MR+momentum: +3.5% (October 9, 2025. YTD +3.4% -Main MR strategy: +38% (June 27, 2023) YTD +5.2% - $SPY YTD +2.9% Link in profile (Daily mean reversion signals) 🔽...
File Now—Penalty for Not Filing Beats Penalty for Not Paying
Missed Tax Day? File anyway. Failure-to-file penalties > failure-to-pay penalties. Even if you can’t pay yet, filing today can save you money.
Volatility Mean-Reverts Faster than Ever Before
We know that volatility mean reverts, but the difference is that we're now seeing this process happening faster than ever https://t.co/CvF1jnIYd0
FT Live Q&A on U.S. Financial Dominance & Trump Challenges
Neither of us are really "experts" but Toby and I are doing one FT's live "Ask An Expert" sessions for readers with questions about America's global financial dominance and Trump-shaped challenges to it. You can check it out here:...
Netflix Leads Portfolio with 24% Gain Buffer
Netflix $NFLX is our biggest #AllINsync position at ~7.4%... sitting with +24% cushion of gains heading into the report after buying off the late February lows... https://t.co/xqDQwmdagV
Price Caps Risk Shortages; Pay‑more Ensures Fuel Access
Forget the oil & gas profits debate, I’d like to be reliably able to fill up my family vehicle and price caps at the pump are a slam dunk recipe for shortages Fuel is a global commodity, and those willing to...
US Blockade Shift Signals War De‑Escalation, Not Market Overreach
The most common comment I hear from policy makers at this week's IMF/WB meetings is that markets are way too early in pricing de-escalation. Disagree. It's clear the US wants wants to end this war, hence the shift to a...
Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Concerns, Robust UK, China Growth
Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP: (A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May...
US Banks Post Record Q1 Trading Revenue, Stocks Surge
The 6 biggest US banks posted a record $45 billion in trading revenue during Q1, up 17% YoY. Their stock prices have soared over the past year... $C: +110% $GS: +81% $MS: +78% $BAC: +46% $JPM: +34% $WFC: +27% https://t.co/iQiw72CVNW
US‑Iran Talks Lift Latin American Commodity Exporters
Now that Iran and the US are negotiating, fear that war may escalate out of control is leaving markets. That's lifting EM oil and commodity exporters, especially across LatAm. Good news for Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. A replay of 2022...
Option Volume Jumps 17% as Calls Outpace Puts
From @Cboe: Wednesday's option volume of 79.1M contracts was 17% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 298 and lower for 157.
Underpriced Inflation Risk: 2021 Gas Surge From Refill Delay
Still think this is an underpriced inflation risk, not due to the ME situation per se, though it doesn't help. In 2021, gas prices rose strongly too in the latter part of the year on the eve of the...
IMF Growth Forecasts Too Pessimistic, Revised Upward After Conflict
One year ago, the IMF put out its growth forecasts (blue) right after Liberation Day. Those forecasts were far too pessimistic and were revised up 6 months later (red). It's the same with this week's forecasts if the war -...
Crude Rally May Echo 2022 US Gas Decline
Crude Surge Could Track Falling US Gas Akin to 2022 Big green quarterly candles in Brent crude oil to roughly $120 a barrel have marked peaks and shifts to enduring red reversion since 2008. Has this pattern changed? Full report on the...
Fewer Decisions, More Conviction Drive Real Success
It's easy to conflate activity with progress 76% of family offices expect to make ten transactions or fewer each year Warren Buffett famously told business school students to imagine a punch card with only 20 slots, representing every investment decision they'd be...
Corn's Tight Range Signals Potential April‑May Price Peak
Range-Bound Ags Ripe to Move - Is Up Sustainable? The agriculture sector may be guided by corn -- its most significant commodity -- which hasn't ended a quarter outside a per-bushel range of about $4-$5 since 2Q23. That managed money (hedge...
TSMC Defies Slow Critiques, Shows Strong Earnings
Some say TSMC is too slow. But earnings today show it’s stronger than ever, even as a bold new entrant joins the chip race. CC Wei 🐢 @elonmusk 🐇 https://t.co/mrlSHR8taT https://t.co/FtqYRRTCxQ
Silver's 2.3x MA Premium Signals Pullback to $50
Normal Silver Retracement Toward $50, Then $34 Not since 1980 has silver's price and volatility been as stretched as they are now, with reversion implications. My graphic highlights the metal at a 2.3x premium to its 20-quarter moving average on April...
Consensus Mirrors Management, Yet Big Firms Miss 15%
"The numbers are revealing. By mid-March 2025, at the conclusion of Q4 2024 reporting, 188 S&P 500 Index companies had issued full-year EPS guidance. At that point, sell-side estimates were, on average, within just 0.3% of the midpoint of guidance....
Spirit Airlines May Cease Flights This Week, Sell Assets
Spirit Airlines Could Stop Flying This Week And Sell Off Its Assets - View from the Wing https://t.co/145CNkriZg
Aleph Bets on Early-Stage, Capital‑efficient Contrarian Investing
And this is why @aleph remains focused on early stage investing and cares about capital efficiency. Today, that is 100% Contrarian and non-consensus.
Can Private Data Platforms Sustain Eka Ventures’ Pre‑Seed Edge?
Do VCs with private data platforms find the best pre-seed deals? Eka Ventures was early with proprietary tools, but can it keep its edge? https://preseednow.com/p/eka-ventures-camilla-dolan
Energy Leads YTD Gains; Health and Staples Lag
the strongest YTD sector is energy $XLE +24.7% and it sits right beside health $XLV & staples $XLP as being below the 50-day average...
Next Bull Run: 18‑Month Cycle, Top Opportunities
🚨 WEBINAR ALERT: The Long Short Report “Sweet Tooth – Sweeter 2026: Riding the Next Bull Run” 📌 Is the correction over? What’s driving the next 18-month cycle? 📈 Where are the biggest opportunities (metals, agro, energy)? ⚠️What risks still matter (rates, dollar, geopolitics)? 🎯Nifty outlook:...
Early Withdrawal Taxed on Interest You Never Received
A real gotcha: Someone withdrew money early from a NatWest fixed-term savings account. NatWest applied an early closure charge of 90 days interest. So they didn't receive 90 days-worth of interest. But they were still taxed on it! Whose fault? And...
Dubai Offers Hedge Funds Flexibility Amid Iran War
Dubai is moving quickly to give hedge funds flexibility to navigate Iran war-related disruptions. An open-for-biz approach, alongside tax advantages and access to capital, had lured hedge funds to Dubai and neighboring Abu Dhabi in the first place. https://t.co/m9DiSMStwP
SPX Hits New Highs, Greed Signals Yet Consolidation Likely
SPX: Fresh all time highs and the price has just entered early greed territory. The RSI is not yet overbought, and the upper B. band suggests continuation. The bull train could offer soon a consolidation since market participation was low,...
India's LNG Importers Snap up Spot Shipments Despite High Prices
India’s LNG importers have accelerated purchases from the spot market, taking advantage of a recent dip in prices 🇮🇳💰 Several shipments were purchased for April-May delivery around $15/mmbtu (that's still 50% higher than pre-war prices) https://t.co/IuRfMTrXqs
Eurozone's 2.5% Inflation Becomes New Normal
An in the Eurozone 2.5% is the new 2%; it was before the war in Iran. I think this can be explained in part, by a simple macro framework via the interaction between looser fiscal and tighter monetary...
Mega‑caps Control Nearly One‑Fifth of S&P 500
Every S&P 500 Company in One Giant Chart Key Takeaways: 👉 This chart shows all 500 companies in the S&P 500, sized by market cap and grouped by sector. 👉 Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft alone make up about 18% of the $57.6 trillion...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% Amid Tech Surge
China collapse fans will not be pleased.... China's Q1 2026 GDP just came in at 5.0% YoY — beating expectations, matching full-year 2025, fastest pace since Q2 2025. Services surging, semiconductors up 20.6%, industrial robots up 24.4%. Yes, property still a drag. Yes,...
SPX Futures Up 6
$spx futures +6. Make sure to trim and trail on Day#12 to book some gains if ur active