Sector Churn Fuels Equity Rally Amid Narrative Hype
Can we just stop this please ... Spoos/NDX closing in on new highs, so everyone is just backfilling a narrative to support that. I am here for a discussion whether equities are delusional, or otherwise. My view: sector churn is helping a lot, for now. 1/2
Meta's Low Valuation Meets Rapid Growth, Poised for Ad Supremacy
$META trades at 21.7x forward earnings. $AAPL trades at 29.7x on 9% growth. $TSLA trades at 173x. Meta is growing revenue at 27%. About to overtake Google as the world’s #1 ad platform. Full deep dive: https://open.substack.com/pub/dralexkoh/p/meta-deep-dive-the-discount-nobodys?r=4zq7nk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Strong Growth, High Cash, but Overvalued Post‑IPO
#TBTG "Revenue and Profit growth exceeding expectations". Net Cash £40.8m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 19.8 falling to 14.2; quite low rating if cash stripped out. Recent IPO and interesting. I don't hold.
Only Two Times Since 1990: Record Close, Few 52‑Week Highs
Just 2 sessions since 1990 with fewer S&P 500 constituents at 52w highs when the benchmark index closed at a record than yesterday: -Nov 13, 2020 -March 21, 2000 (h/t to @scottcharts for the inspo) https://t.co/52dt1frKOz
AVG Secures £10m Nuclear Orders, Shares Surge 7%
#AVG won "more than £10m" in Nuclear orders since Jan 1st. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 19.1 falling to 15.5 and fwd Divvy 0.9% each of next 2 years, BEFORE 7% jump today and the News. New ATH and a chart...
Stuck in US‑Iran Standoff: No Fighting, No Peace, No Oil
At risk of repeating myself, still in the "no-fighting, not-peace, and (certainly) no-oil" phase of the US-Iran war.
BOOM's Growth vs High Forward P/E Raises Rating Doubts
#BOOM Update reads well with decent growth in Revenue and Profit. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 39.3 falling to 27.4, and no Dividend. Does it justify the rating? I don't hold.
Energy Prices Far Below 2022 Peaks, Economy Remains Stable
On a serious note, this utter nonsense from Luke doesn’t pass the simplest of reality tests. If you look at weighted prices across oil, gas, electricity, etc. in the West, we remain miles below peak 2022 prices - and those prices...
Lee Jae Myung Redirects Housing Funds to Boost Industry
1/9 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to... https://t.co/KKRJiuWb4E
Rupee Surge Makes 250 Crore Worth $1.2 Billion
Good to know that INR has strengthened so much that 250 crores is approximately equal to $1.2 billion
EasyJet Predicts Larger H1 Loss Amid Middle East Conflict
EasyJet warns of bigger first-half loss, lower bookings as Middle East war upends business https://t.co/FeDiVpr1tN
Investors See War Relief, Yet Market Remains Uncertain
While no one has a crystal ball to foresee the exact future outcome, investors seem to be starting to think that the worst of the US-Iran war is over. As evidenced by yesterday's S&P 500 closing price. That said, I...
Implied Moves Reveal Today's Earnings Winners and Losers
This is the implied move for the stocks of today's reporting companies: $TSM $PEP $ABT $SCHW $PLD $BK $TRV $USB $CFG $MRSH $NFLX $AA $FNB $CNS $SFNC $INDB $LAKE https://t.co/PVJ72KjMaD
Build Enduring Assets in a Short‑attention World
"How do you build a 40-year asset in a world with a ten-minute attention span?"
China’s New‑home Prices Dip 0.21% in March, Easing Pressure
1/3 Bloomberg: "New-home prices in 70 cities in China dropped 0.21% in March, the second consecutive month of easing pressure and the smallest decline in 11 months." https://t.co/OQEWA9QELf
No Viable Alternative: $2 Trillion
There is no alternative (TINA). Or put it another way, where would you hide USD2trn? Not in HSI...
China's Q1 2026 Imports Surge 19.6%, Exports Rise
1/4 On Tuesday China reported that the total value of exports in the first three months of 2026 was RMB 6,846.7 billion yuan, up 11.9% year on year, while the total value of imports was 4,991.3 billion yuan, up 19.6%. https://t.co/5TDMdkLpCw
BOE’s Greene Confirms Traders Correctly Cut Rate Hike Bets
BOE’s Greene says traders were right to trim rate hike bets https://t.co/TDPziGklgr via @irinaanghel12 @flacqua https://t.co/UsKWcSk4T7
Turkey's Loose Money Policy Drives Lira to Record Low
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The lira hit a record low of 44.7/USD — down 17% over the past year. Turkey's M3 is growing at 39.9%/yr, well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey’s inflation target. TURKEY’S MONETARY POLICY IS...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5%, Growth Imbalance Worsens
1/8 China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0%, faster than the 4.8-4.9% most polls suggested, but the composition of the growth was more unbalanced than ever, especially in March. https://t.co/Wa8M2mo1rR
Allergic to Construction: Costly Lessons From Founder-Led Firm
#MNGS my allergic reaction to the construction sector has arguably cost me dearly over the years…no more so than with this impressive founder led business https://t.co/ly4TY6lfDn
Stocks Near Breakout: Position Now for Bull Run
If you’ve been following me even for the last 2–3 months, you’ve seen the updates. First — stocks were forming a base. Then — bases got stronger. Now — many stocks are on the verge of breakout. I didn’t just say it, I invested...
Margin Expansion Remains Core Strategy for Companies
Holy GMs. I have said this many times but the main storyline for many companies remains — margin expansion.
India Overtakes US for Second Spot in Solar Growth
Market Share: While China remains the undisputed leader (accounting for over 60% of global additions), India is set to secure the #2 spot for yearly growth, overtaking the United States.
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
Sell on Panic, Buy After Media Hype
The easiest trade on Wall Street remains the same: sell when the first panicans show up on X, buy when Bloomberg gives them an hour-long podcast to explain why the world is ending.
ECB Officials Likely to Keep Rates Steady in April
ECB officials are said to be leaning toward an April rate hold https://t.co/EdJESl5bdm via @jrandow https://t.co/68cFQ4Gs2V
Low Multiples Offer Expansion; High Multiples Invite Compression
Guess what, when your portfolio trades at 37x cash flow, multiple compression is a major risk. That’s why my portfolio trades at 3.7x cash flow, so multiple expansion is a major opportunity.
China Threatens Vague Retaliation on Foreign Firms Before Trump Summit
China Sharpens Retaliatory Tools Against U.S. Ahead of Trump Summit—Beijing responds to Washington’s trade pressure with broad but vague threats aimed at foreign businesses @ByChunHan @yoyominnie https://t.co/itS181EOEe https://t.co/itS181EOEe
Election‑Driven Sector Tug‑of‑War Fuels Market Volatility
Markets are already trading the 2024 election. Analysts warn of a "tug-of-war" between sectors based on potential policy shifts, driving volatility. Time to watch sectors, not just stocks. Investing
Speculative
When you know if it were 2021 this entire internet would be calling for $600 dollar oil, jumping over each other to share Zoltan Pozsar latest note, and warning of a 'molecule crisis' every hour but you just can't...
Seeking Interest for Weekly Shadow Activist Stock Analyses
Who would like to see regular Senjin Capital analysis of “shadow activist” ideas? That is, where existing activists are involved, but may not have said anything publicly about their thesis? I have seen some complaints that there aren’t enough actionable stock ideas...
US Crude Inventories Drop, First Since Iran Conflict
Today, the EIA released data on crude oil inventories held by US firms. Since the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, inventories have declined. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/sc7GCwRvTK
Taiwan Emerges as Global Economic Powerhouse
Three facts worth storing in memory: -Taiwan’s stock market is now bigger than the UK’s -Taiwan is on track to be a larger source of US imports than China. -Eight of the world’s ten largest companies rely on Taiwanese (#9 & #10...
Healthcare Splits: MedTech Down, Biotech Outperforms Amid Rising Rates
Despite SPX back at new highs, Healthcare has proven dismal this year, & the bifurcation in this sector w/ Med Tech turning down while Biotech outperforms is not dissimilar w/ what happened in Technology early in the year. Given my expectations...
Treasury Direct: The Only Safe Bet (TINA)
There is no alternative (TINA) for US Treasury. I am personally an investor via treasury direct :-)
Consistent SIP Beats Higher Returns Over Time
₹1L SIP ~ ₹22.6 Cr ₹1.25L SIP ~ ₹28.3 Cr ₹1.5L SIP ~ ₹33.9 Cr ₹1.75L SIP ~ ₹39.6 Cr ₹2L SIP ~ ₹45.2 Cr ₹2.25L SIP ~ ₹50.9 Cr ₹2.5L SIP ~ ₹56.5 Cr Assuming 10% return for 30 years. Same market. Lower return. Still massive wealth. Lesson: Return matters…...
China's Q1 GDP Masks Weak Consumer and Investment Demand
China Q1 2026 real GDP is STRONG at 5%, but details show that consumption and investment are very weak. Nominal retail sales are soft at 1.7% for March and for the quarter it's only growing 2.4% nominally, which means REAL RETAIL...
Foreign Share of US Treasury Demand Likely Overstated
The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update. Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?” https://t.co/qUbusfuVOx https://t.co/HYoQrWI8cP
EURUSD Near Bearish Weekly Order Block – Await Confirmation
📊 EURUSD – Weekly Time Frame Insight 🔎 EURUSD is currently near a key Bearish Weekly Order Block (OB) 📉 🎯 This is a critical zone, and every trader should understand: 👉 We cannot take buy or sell entries without confirmation ❌
US Says Blockade Stopped Chinese Iranian Oil Purchases
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the blockade is believed to have halted Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, will not renew the Russian oil waiver, and stated that two Chinese banks received Treasury letters warning of potential secondary sanctions.
Triangle Pause Marks Top of 240 Uptrend
too many nice charts to post this past week...but small triangle pause at top of uptrending channel on 240 = pretty. https://t.co/pj0gyUXbW8
China’s Outperformance Driven by Excess Liquidity Recycling
China’s outperformance is symptomatic of its liquidity glut, said @Trinhnomics , a senior economist covering emerging Asia at Natixis in Hong Kong. “That excess liquidity is being recycled into high-quality Chinese credit.” https://t.co/3rIShLlAgS
Taiwan's Market Cap Overtakes UK at $4.14 Trillion
Taiwan’s stock market total market cap just hit $4.14 trillion - now exceeding that of the UK
Invest Your Salary, Retire Early with Passive Gains
Last year, my portfolio made me more money than my old job at Deloitte. I worked 55 billable hours during busy season vs just buying ETFs like $VTI and waiting for the same $$$ gain Turn your active income into investments so...
S&P Hits Record, but Breadth Hits Historic Low
Today was truly rare. An all-time high for the S&P 500, but only 12 stocks in the index made a 52-week high. Since 1999, we've only seen five readings that weak or worse https://t.co/tSKV0sCpsn
Asian Markets Set to Hit New Records Amid US Rally
US stocks at new record. The war trade continues unwinding. Which markets in Asia will likely make new highs/2026 high? Most probably same ones pre-War. •Spore - already near record •Japan - testing 59K •Thai - reopens today after long holiday •S...
Wealth Preservation Is a Teach‑able Skill, Not Luck
Most people who come into a lot of money lose it. Not because they are careless, but because nobody taught them how to keep it. Wealthy families spend generations passing down how to preserve and grow wealth. You do not...
Australian Fuel Crunch Deepens After Refinery Fire
Australia's fuel crunch is set to get worse 🇦🇺🚨 A major fire at one of Australia’s only two oil refineries will shut some of its production. The refinery supplies 10% of domestic demand Australia’s petroleum product supplies were already really tight due...
DRC Copper Climbs 10%, Cobalt Shipments Plunge
DRC copper output rose 10pc in 2025 as major mines expanded, while cobalt shipments plunged under export controls. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/drc-copper-output-growth-accelerates-as.html