Business Owners Reap Tax Perks Denied to W‑2 Workers
“There are just a lot of tax benefits that come with owning a business that are just not really available to somebody working a W-2 job... It’s just a reflection of how Washington works, right? There’s no ‘regular person’ lobby.” https://t.co/h1SX37oXMu @BSteverman
IMF Adds Olive Oil to Its Commodity Basket.
I just realized the IMF has expanded the basket of commodities it tracks, adding olive oil (among others). I think my job is done here.
Buy Fundamentals, Not Predictions, During Market Dips
I never make short term price predictions I don’t make claims about tops and bottoms No one knows that for sure But… I keep investing in fundamentally sound companies and especially when they have drawdowns
Stress‑test Your Model Before Investing, Not Just During Booms
Mr. Market is generous in expansions and brutal in recessions. Your valuation assumptions should already know that. If your model only survives the good times, it isn't a model — it's a mood. Stress test first. Invest second.
Housing Yields Sweet Spot: ≤6.25% Thanks to Spreads
The sweet spot for housing over the past few years has been 6.25% and under, with duration. The only reason we have a shot here again is due to the spreads this year
Six Bullish Triggers That Could Defy My Bearish Stance
I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong 1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's 2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal...
SPX Repeats Rare Back-to-Back 1% Rally After Lows
Odd market stat of the day. In 2025, the $SPX's first back-to-back 1% advances happened after the low: 4/11-4/14/25. In 2026, the $SPX's first back-to-back 1% advances after the low JUST happened the last two days: 4/13-4/14/26....
S&P 500 Posts Biggest 10‑day Rally Since 2020
The S&P 500 is up 9.83% the past 10 trading days, for the best 10 day gain since coming off the COVID lows in March 2020. https://t.co/iPKDHL8E1N
Only Chase Passion if It Pays the Bills
Another piece of advice I'd add: Do not follow your passion unless your passion is becoming not broke.
S&P 500 Inches Within 0.2% of Record High
This is how far off of a record high the $SPX's close is today....less than 0.2%. You can smell that YOLO in the air again... https://t.co/46zbHTLg3m
EWY Gap Fill Pending: Pause or Surge to ATH
$EWY South Korea gap fill in play.. will she pause or bust through to ATHs? @stockcharts https://t.co/pLhBGqVXTt https://t.co/ucpng2vOUR
Accurate Oil Bottom Forecast Highlights Demand Overestimation
We essentially nailed the exact bottom in our coverage at @RealVision and Nowcast IQ, largely thanks to our nowcasting, which showed that conditions had stabilized and, in some cases, were already beginning to improve. Oil futures are now already below pre-blockade...
Iran Conflict Fuels Massive Commodity Price Surges
Since the start of the Iran war... Sulfur: +67% Jet Fuel: +66% Urea: +51% Diesel: +50% Heating Oil: +40% WTI Crude Oil: +37% European Natural Gas: +34% Gasoline: +32% Fertilizer: +31% Brent Crude Oil: +31% Coal: +14% Palm Oil: +10% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +4% S&P 500: +1% $VIX: -8%
EV Tariffs Fall Short; Europe Uncovers Chinese FX Meddling
Indeed -- EV tariffs (CVDs) also were clearly an insufficient response (lower than China's old WTO bound 25% auto tariff on Tesla and BYD, easy workaround with plug in hybrids) And Europe only now discovering Chinese intervention in the fx market
Low‑risk Portfolio Gains ~9.5% YTD with DS Strategies
100% Allocated DS GlobalBeta up 7%YTD. I've been 80% invested basically. Up 5.6%. DSAlpha which buys/sells options using my AUM as a resource has PNL of 3.9% of AUM YTD. Yes you can add them. Total is...
S&P 500
#SP500 Up Candle near ATH 7002. Support 6790, 6740, 6600. RSI 61 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band 7013. Midpoint Line 6715. Bottom Band 6425.
Candy Prices Rise Even as Cocoa Prices Plummet
I really don't understand how candy/cocoa prices at the store are so darn high... cocoa prices have literally crashed. I mean, I get there's labor, transport, marketing costs etc.. but jeez prices are way up since 2024... when cocoa was $12k/ton...
Portfolio Shifts to Cash, Short US Equities, and Put Spreads
On the close. Raised cash in Beta by 10% of AUM trimming commodities, gold, and US and ROW Equities. Up to 30% Cash. In Alpha went max short US Equities. Two and Six Month Put Spreads totaling 4%...
Take 5% Tiered Profits; Oscillator Signals Exit
Btw it doesn’t mean short the market or I’m calling a top. These are my guidelines on the BOS Account. Carve out at least 5% on each tier. Especially if it only takes a month. Oscillator is +75 and...
Transportation Index Surge Signals Strong Economy, Overlooked
The strength in the Dow Jones Transportation Index has been nothing short of spectacular. Should tell you everything you need to know about the underlying economy. Not sure why this isn’t getting more attention. $DJT $IYT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/YmdiJSd4Qx
S&P 500 Total Return Hits New All‑Time High
Including dividends, the S&P 500 is now up over 2% YTD with the total return index closing at a new all-time high today. $SPX https://t.co/oE5qym7Qb6
SF Buyers Pay Premium for Move‑in Ready Homes
The other factor here is that it is already remodeled. Buyers are afraid of the time and cost to remodel in SF so they’re paying big premiums for completed work.
Record-High Live Cattle Prices Prompt Fresh Market Stock‑Up
Live Cattle record high @augurinfinity https://t.co/QegXc8T5en I better stock up on the $4.99/lb deal at @thefreshmarket https://t.co/fv3gfz6xdC
Volatility Clusters: Big Ups Follow Big Downs Near March Low
The S&P 500 rose 1.2% today, its 4th big up day (>1% gain) in the past 2 weeks. The V-shaped recovery off the March low is another reminder for investors: volatility cuts both ways and is not linear over time....
US Momentum Factor Hits 10-Day Rally, MTUM Record
The US momentum factor has also rallied for 10 consecutive days. Could be $MTUM's best streak since its inception.. not sure @augurinfinity https://t.co/LrS9XAM2sB https://t.co/gyhP3tzHnY
QQQ's 10-Day Rally Nearing Pullback Warning
$QQQ - 10th up day in a row. Closed above the 78.6% retracement of the recent downtrend. The next resistance is the ATH at 637. The 5 day RSI closed above 90. This happened only twice in the last 12...
Jet Fuel Shortage Looms for Year After Middle East Disruption
Even if the ceasefire holds, we are looking at a months-long shortage of jet fuel on a global basis, most heavily focused on the Southeast and Northeast Asian zone. The Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Saudi [medium-heavy sour] crudes that are favored in...
Post‑crisis Outlook: Fed Likely to Raise Rates
If the crisis blows over in the way most investors expect, i think the next Fed move will be a hike
High‑Risk $250 Short on $CAR: Not for Rookies
$CAR there's a $250 per share short trade on the back side. Patience and respect your stops. Not a trade for rookies.
Institutions Hedge Tail Risk as SKEW Near Resistance
SKEW is pinned just below 5-year resistance at 156. Institutions are quietly paying up for far out-of-the-money put protection. They're hedging a low-probability, high-impact tail event. That's not typically a buy-the-dip environment. Time will tell.
Nvidia’s Decade Return Dwarfs All, Outpaces Inflation
Last 10 Years NVIDIA $NVDA: +21,630% Bitcoin $BTC: +17,401% $AMD: +9,278% Tesla $TSLA: +2,071% Apple $AAPL: +919% Netflix $NFLX: +863% Google $GOOGL: +763% Microsoft $MSFT: +707% Amazon $AMZN: +704% Meta $META: +501% S&P 500 $SPY: +293% Gold $GLD: +280% US Inflation (CPI): +39%
SPY 8‑MA at 676, Trim Positions
SPY 8-MA way back at 676 now, quite extended near-term along with that NYMO, not a bad time to trim, take profits, write covered calls imo, annual outlook to start the year put out SPX 6350 as the BTFD level...
Nasdaq's Fast-Track SpaceX Listing Sparks Algorithmic Crowding
“We’re headed for what is going to be a very algorithmically crowded trade” - @DaveNadig on ETF IQ on why Nasdaq changing rules to add SpaceX only 15 days after IPO is gonna have unintended consequences. Good discussion/debate incl re...
Kering Q1 Stabilizes; Buy Dips at €260
Macro: Kering Q1 stabilized; Jewelry & Eyewear offset Gucci. Key: N.A. strength, FX/disposals. Risks: geopolitics, Gucci lag, rich valuation. Trade: buy dips to €260 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
True Diversification Means Minimizing Overlap, Not Counting Holdings
I respect what they have built over the years, but the portfolio construction always struck me as inferior, with too many overlapping bets. Diversification is achieved through minimizing overlap, not owning a certain number of things.
US Gas Gains Offset by Qatar Losses, Hurting Global Economy
I have to question some people's math. Qatar is down 8 bcm and the US is up 2.6 bcm. The issue here is the difference is not being made up and what is good for the US in the short-term is bad...
Simple Discipline Today Funds Generations of Wealth
Don't let social media trick you... - Act broke - Dress simply - Ignore judgement - Kill debt - Stack cash flow - Invest, invest, invest - Set yourself up for life A few years of discipline can fund a few generations of wealth.
Top Market Timing Chart From Legendary
Chart of the Year candidate from the Greek Demi-God of Timing The Markets (who shall name anonymous for compliance reasons but is well known to those in the... know). And if you don't know... now you know. https://t.co/dXexvP2w1l
Institutional Investors Expand US Housing Supply via Distressed Home Rehab
New @AEI case study finds that institutional investors boost US housing supply by buying single family homes in poor condition (thus likely underused/vacant), quickly rehabilitating them, and returning them to the market for sale to individual homeowners: https://t.co/oRNyDFJcil https://t.co/DswoYpfXZ7
Huge FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options that expire tomorrow 1.64 bln euros $1.18 2 bln euros at $1.1750 $1.5 bln at JPY158.85 A$2.1 bln $0.7125-30. https://t.co/SuL5KID8ce
Don’t Chase Dips; Average in Small, Stay Patient
Buying the dip works until the bottom falls out. Then you are out of cash as the market continues to fall. Average in with small positions and stay patient. We aren’t going back to all-time highs tomorrow.
IWM and VEU Surge Despite Weak Market Breadth
That doesn't look like great breadth, but $IWM and $VEU are soaring.. which matters https://t.co/PlPbLGi34t
Yttrium Prices Surge 140‑Fold Amid China Restrictions
ICYMI Rare earth yttrium hits new high, up 140-fold in 1 year on China curbs Crazy https://t.co/IlKp0JP6Ny via @NikkeiAsia
President's Sixth Year Boosts Markets, Best Since 1950s
We all know about how midterm years aren't that great for investors, but did you know that year six of a President's term is actually quite strong? Never lower going back to the 1950s. https://t.co/jxw9n7h2QT
Half‑price Eggs Create Massive Arbitrage—Ration or Profit
If you are selling eggs for half the price of the going rate, unless you ration the eggs, this is a massive arbitrage opportunity.
Hormuz Disruption Slashes Global Oil Flow, Tanker Trade Falters
Global Oil Flows Plunge as Hormuz Disruption Chokes Tanker Trade. A narrow take of what is happening. https://t.co/mROsy4L0Hr
US Blockade Takes Effect, First Ships Turned Back
U.S. Declares Blockade Effective as First Ships Turned Back from Iranian Ports. When will the Strait be open with ships and cargo flowing securely both ways? https://t.co/D3uHFpWCMS
SIDU Spikes 35% in Two Days—Momentum Ready
$SIDU +35% in 2 days… 🤯🔥 This is why we stay ready. Catch the move early → let momentum do the rest. Now all eyes on $6… 👀 Do we send it or stall here? 🤑💰 #trading #stocks #stockmarket #daytrading #momentum money investing
Quick Visual Scan to Filter Stocks Before Deep Dive
The old fashion way. I use my eyes to scroll a go-to list of names starting with the daily charts. I can tell in seconds if the chart interests me and then I put it on my homework...
Profit Spikes Aren't the Lesson—Focus on Strategy
From $400 to $1,300 in 2 Days… But That’s Not the Point #optionstrader #tradingstrategy #stocks #tradebreakdown