Fed Holds, Iran Shock Won’t Stubbornly Raise Inflation
Bessent says the Fed is right to wait and see how the economy handles the Iran shock but expects it will not seep into inflation expectations, allowing cuts to eventually resume. "If ever there was ‘Team Transitory,’ it’s this."
Indonesia's Ongoing Push Beyond ASEAN Through Multilateral Diplomacy
Indonesia has been flirting with ways to break out of an ASEAN box through several administrations, not just Prabowo’s. Can point to bilateral diplomacy like this Russia/US contrast visual, pre-Prabowo versions of the same, plurilaterals, and of course G20 much...
RSI(5) Overbought: Expect Sharp Pullback Ahead
if you opted to not buy the annual weekly oversold sale on stocks & also neglected the short-term daily oversold conditions and now wondering if it's too late, i'll point out that indeed, we're RSI(5) overbought after this rather sharp...
Cancel YouTube Premium Free Trial Before Billing
Tried the @YouTube Premium free trial for a month and aren't finding it's worth keeping? Not to worry, here's the fast and sure way to cancel service before the 💰 bill comes due: https://t.co/1AaZfLcUXn #youtube #youtubepremium https://t.co/S5rVD0f04F
DTST's Record Profit Driven Entirely by One‑time Gain
$DTST... highlighting record net income in their earning press release when it all came from a gain. This is the stuff that gives microcaps a bad name (well one of them 🤣)... Makes sure to always read press releases beyond...
Bumble Rebounds 50% to Rational 30% FCF Yield
Bumble up 50% from the lows. Turns out Mr. Market got a little extreme dumping $BMBL at a >40% free cash flow yield. Now priced at a fully rational ~30% FCF yield.
Closing Cards Can Spike Utilization—Keep Them if Needed
If you close a credit card, that credit limit comes out of your utilization calculation and can push your percentage up. Before closing a card, ask yourself: Do I still use it? Am I using it responsibly? Will closing it push...
Vanguard AI Moves Advisors From Assistance to Augmentation
Vanguard's Three-Phase AI Strategy: From Efficiency to Autonomy Phase 1 (Assisting): AI handles repetitive tasks, surfaces data Phase 2 (Augmenting): AI generates insights, recommendations, scenario analysis—current deployment Phase 3 (Acting): AI executes decisions autonomously within guardrails—future state Current tool = Phase 2. Practical features:...
Underwriting Simplified: Three Core Questions for Deal Success
A lot of people try to complicate the real estate underwriting process, but it’s actually pretty simple once you understand the basics Here are the central questions you need to answer during your underwriting: Question 1: “Can I capitalize the deal?” Question 2:...
Zero‑percent Euro/Yen Bonds Made 2021 Borrowing Bliss
Few things sweeter in corporate finance than borrowing at 0.000% by issuing fixed-rate notes in Euros/Yen during 2021 https://t.co/Wv6Z1zNz1S
Euro Hits Year‑High, Signals Broad Capital Shift
EUR/USD broke above 1.177 — the euro's strongest level in over a year. Dollar weakness + European resilience = a real structural move. When $EURUSD breaks out like this, global capital flows shift. Not just for FX traders — for every asset...
Amazon Call Spread Positioned for Earnings Swing
AMZN earlier a buy of 37,500 May 9th (W) $260/$290 call spreads targeting earnings adjusting June 225/265 spreads
Datacenter Power Scarcity Fuels Long Positions in CIFR, WULF
Energy and capacity are both still highly constrained. I continue to be long $CIFR and $WULF as I accessible datacenter power will to be in short supply. 💪🏻🚀
Investors Should Judge CEOs by Their Future Reputation
Buffett met Gianni Agnelli once. One line changed how he thought about people: "When you get old, you've got the reputation you deserve." Here's what that means for investors: 1️⃣ The market is short-term forgiving, long-term honest. 2️⃣ Management track records are lagging indicators...
Quantum Market Set to 10x by 2035, Stocks Cheap
McKinsey estimates quantum computing market to grow ~10x by 2035 Quantum computing stocks were crushed during the recent selloff and the risk/reward now looks good. https://t.co/Bgr7oW49kB
5‑Year Yields Rich Amid Front‑End
After a spirited front-end rally, 5s looking rich on the curve as intermediate-term slowdown bets dominate. Unfortunately, other tenors have their own issues. Fiscal concerns make the long end unattractive before May refunding and 2s have a here...
DRAM ETF Ranks Top in Flows, Surpasses Peers
$DRAM 11th in flows yesterday among all ETFs with $265m, now $680m on week which is also Top 20. And if we compare it to the 250 theme ETFs on market it is already 3rd in YTD flows. Unprecedented stuff...
Don't Cut China Supply Chain; De‑risking Brings Consequences
China. Do not reduce your China supply chain. Or face the consequences. The risk of de-risking.
Dollarizing Boosts Growth; Argentina Should Follow Suit
Ecuador and Montenegro both dumped their local currencies and “dollarized.” Stability and growth followed. Meanwhile, Argentina is plagued with the peso and lags behind. IT'S TIME FOR ARGENTINA TO DITCH THE PESO AND DOLLARIZE. https://t.co/KWvfRtgqwr
Profit‑taking In
IONQ: another gap and go play...profit taking in some of the mature RS leaders, rotating into shares that have not moved as much.... https://t.co/61F0h7P9JW
Avoid Chasing Bounces: Stick to Planned Dip Trades
Sometimes the dip buy trade is unpredictable. $INTC heavier than expected off the open. But no fighting it. There was one bounce, only add on the way up not down and when it rejected the prior days afternoon support easy...
Breakaway Momentum Signals Nasdaq Nearing 26K
Props to @WalterDeemer the DEAN of TA who called our attention to Breakaway Momentum Watch. While bears were pearl clutching all day he said we were setting up to go higher 💥👊 👏 now within striking distance of 26K on NQ!...
Geopolitical Risk Revives, Sparking Rapid Market Shifts
US-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend. Markets repriced oil, gold, and risk assets instantly. Geopolitical risk premiums aren't dead — they're just dormant between headlines. When they wake up, they move fast. $WTI $GLD $SPY — all in play. https://t.co/oTOb2cKuEy
Capstone Poised for Multi‑bagger as Growth Accelerates
I think it might soon be $CGEH time again. Def no chartist here, but I like what I'm seeing. Results are backing the story. Continued good revenue and profitability growth. Capstone is getting more and more traction. This will feed momentum...
Watch QQQ 9‑EMA Trend on 60‑Min Chart
day 5 trending on 9ema on $QQQ on 60min. If you are a very short term trader keep an eye on that trend. https://t.co/mz2kFf9prv
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Fifth Global Recession
the imf's worst case scenario for the iran war: oil at $110 this year, $125 next year. inflation hitting 6%. global growth falling below 2%. that would be a global recession — the fifth since 1980.
US PPI Hits 4%—Inflation Persists Despite Fed Easing
March’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) remains ELEVATED at 4.0%/yr—its highest reading since February 2023. As the Fed pivots away from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, it's having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/DCJ60m5pJO
Oil Shock Fleeting, Fed Should Ignore; Egg Prices Fundamentally Falling
An oil-price shock is “temporary” and the Fed should look through it. But egg price deflation is fundamental.
MSFT Shows Three‑bar Bullish Gap, Continue Long
MSFT: Gap and Go w bo from three bar. will be day 10 of extended run up (means only trade long side or trail stop on positions.) so many choice examples today but the initial three bars...
Measuring How Long Competitive Advantages Last
We have a new report out today on the concept of "competitive advantage period." A company’s anticipated value creation is measured by how much its return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeds its cost of capital as well as how long...
Lagarde Applauds Hungary's New Leader for Euro Entry Plan
Lagarde welcomes the new Hungarian leader’s plan to join the euro https://t.co/ccZ5XwRv1A via @flacqua @NickHeubeck @weberalexander https://t.co/6Ic3jaRRx6
Strategy Equals Wide Butterfly Plus Eight Strangles
i won't comment except to point out that this is algebraically equivalent to buying 1 really wide butterfly and 8 strangles (the butterfly is technically an "iron fly") Also, they used the word "deep" when traders say "far", so the target audience...
Mild Winter Triggers US Gas Price Plunge
U.S. gas prices plunge after exceptionally mild end to winter U.S. gas futures prices have slumped after the warmest end to winter for more than 15 years caused storage injections to begin earlier than normal, with the threat storage space would...
Peso Retests Swing High; Upside Likely, Pros Profit
swing highs and lows = the most visible chart point...Peso perfect full retest up. odds still favor upside, but pros often take profits on these highs. https://t.co/dO3FyDI6a1
Use $JOJO to Complement Bonds During Spread Expansions
$JOJO is a complement, not a replacement. Add it alongside your core bond allocation for tactical credit rotation. When spreads blow out, you'll want this in the portfolio. https://t.co/xlY97itNk2
Risk Appetite Soars as S&P Nears Record High
What Middle East crisis? Sticky inflation? Exacerbated existing economic uncertainties? None of this is competing with risk appetite right now. $SPX is within 1 percent of its record intraday high and sporting is second strongest 10-day rally in four years...
CGNT Hits High‑grade Copper; PEA Imminent Amid Demand Surge
$CGNT.v MD-060: 68m @ 0.97% CuEq inside 371m @ 0.53% CuEq. Higher grades at southern margin (141m @ 0.71% CuEq). Copper ~$6/lb on AI/electrification demand + supply deficits. 3 rigs drilling toward PEA. @Cu_Giant should attract some attention.
March Sees Mixed Fund Performance, Many Losses
More evidence of a tough March: --Moore Offshoot JJJ: lost 11% --Guo Feng’s Symmetry lost 2.6% --Greg Coffey’s Kirkoswald joined Rokos: + 0.23%, bringing returns for the first quarter to 11%,. Others: -Blackrock STA: +1.2%/+4.2% and D1 Stock Book: -6%/+2.7 (March/YTD) https://t.co/X8Ifaxd1Yi
China Cracks Down on Firms Ditching Its Suppliers
1/2 NYT: "As China’s mammoth trade surplus stokes global tensions, Beijing has enacted sweeping new regulations to investigate and punish foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers in response to political pressure at home." https://t.co/hHhm9lhuk8
China’s March Soybean Imports Slump Far Below Expectations
🇨🇳China imported 4.02 million metric tons of soybeans in March, well below expectations and the month's average (both ~6 mmt). Halfway through 2025/26, total imports were a 3-yr high BUT below the 5-yr avg on minimal US arrivals. 10+ mmt per...
China Halts Exports From Plastic Trinkets to Missile Magnets
Bessent: “China is stopping exports of various products” Products like “plastic trinkets”, or products like “the rare earth magnets we need to rebuild our missile stockpiles to continue our war v. Iran”? 🤔
Falling VIX Masks Ongoing Geopolitical Risks
$VIX spiked to 29.3 in late March. It's now at 18.75. The market is telling you the fear is gone. But is it? VIX dropping while geopolitical risk stays elevated and Q1 earnings loom is either a relief rally — or dangerous...
Cloudflare's Edge Network Powers Essential AI Infrastructure
Why I’m Bullish on Cloudflare $NET Cloudflare leverages its expansive global network to become critical infrastructure for emerging AI workloads — and it is the kind of infrastructure without which AI cannot function. Cloudflare operates a distributed network that delivers security, networking,...
Energy ETF Slides 12%—Buy‑the‑Dip Opportunity
12% pullback in energy stocks $XLE for everyone who was frustrated they missed the move and swore to buy back in on the next dip https://t.co/xeYc2YdVHI
Platinum Nears Breakout as RSI Climbs Above 50
Platinum $PLAT Is Platinum about to go orbital?! Last resistance before Blue Sky is its 50 dma with RSI above 50 and climbing ... https://t.co/pO5lz6jmzs
SPY Holds Near
As we chop around $690, exposure at $695 has been increasing since open on $SPY. $689-$690 is now support for me. The data has been on point :)
Momentum's Many Faces, Private Credit Benchmarks, Sovereign Blowup History
🔬 Research links: the many faces of momentum, benchmarking private credit and a history of sovereign blowups. https://t.co/4qQ2hYNCiI chart: https://t.co/Pm4rrurbzu https://t.co/IQhwf35scS
Rapid $50k Analysis
See someone did the math overnight on $50k tin for what the metrics are on AlphaMoon $AFM.V
Optimal Return Stacking Requires Defined Base, Objective, Constraints
One question I get all the time with return stacking is, "what does the optimal stack look like?" Without constraints, it's an intractable question. What's our base? What's our objective? What are our constraints? We explore this in a new blog...
Santa Monica Rents Fall 8% After Three-Year Decline
Santa Monica rents have gone down for 3 years in a row, down 8.1% in the last year LA rents also down Remember: Rents go up and down https://t.co/ohWuaQQoYT