U.S. Stocks Naturally Trend Up Over the Long Term
The path of least resistance in the U.S. stock market is up long term. 📈 https://t.co/iSglzoKrCN
Pay Yourself First: $500 Monthly Boosts Finances
Consistently depositing $500 a month into your trading account will transform your finances. Learn to pay yourself first.
Blockade Aims to Crush Iran’s Economy, Force Negotiations
The goal of the blockade is to collapse Iran's export revenues and make it impossible for the regime to import anything. That should lead to deep recession, devaluation and hyperinflation. Ultimate goal is to bring the mullahs to the negotiating...
T‑Mobile US Outshines Deutsche Telekom as Better Buy
Think the parent company is the better buy? Think again. Analysis argues T-Mobile US is now a more attractive investment than its owner, Deutsche Telekom, due to its pure-play on faster U.S. growth. investing
IMF/WB Summit Likely Triggers Further Oil Price Drop
The IMF/WB meetings are happening this week in DC. My best guess is that they'll be a catalyst for oil prices to fall further. A lot of people are coming to DC from across the world and will realize the...
Rich's Disciplined Microcap Strategy Ranks Top 1%
Rich doesn't do many interviews. He brings a very disciplined approach to microcap/smallcap and ranks in the top 1% of all US equity strategies since inception. Worth a listen.
Investing: Markets Don't Return Your Affection, Valuation Matters
"The stocks we buy don't love us back". At the end of our first financial year @CapitalmindMF, I'm interviewed by @imNavneetDubey in a summary of our investing approach, how we approach markets, and our view on valuations: https://t.co/DqSkWotEiV
Shipping Surge, Iran Nuclear Pause, Israel‑Lebanon Talks Signal Hope
🔥 FINALLY SOME GOOD NEWS FOR WORLD WAR 🔥 34 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on 12 April. Highest since this war began. Iran offered to suspend nuclear activity for 5 years. Israel and Lebanon to hold negotiation talks in the...
FIIs Misread India: Growth Potential Undermined by Taxes
what this article shows is how wrong the FIIs can be. When they thought India was the only game in town in 2 yrs it was not- now they think other countries are the only game in town so... Reality is...
Close LEG Merger Arb Now: 14% Return in 11 Days
Great outcome for $LEG merger arb, 14% return in 11 days. Def. agreement reached, only 3% spread remains. Closing out now makes the most sense. Reg. risk is real, and the offer likely won't be bumped (exchange ratio was already increased)👇...
Buy SPX Monthly During Market Corrections, Ignore Fear.
It’s always good to post this during a corrective move when the networks try and scare most investors out. Always put your $spx monthly inflows in! https://t.co/NxhlFQ7K3r
PROC Shows Strong Cash, Falling P/E, Yet Not
#PROC "ahead of exams". Net Cash up to £4.4m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 17.8 falling to 12.6 and fwd Divvy 4.7%, 2 years out. Seems in good shape after pandemic woes. I don't hold.
PRV Holds Steady, Worth Considering Despite Minor Weaknesses
#PRV in line. Some weakness in Autos bit but small part. Lumpy orders in Aerospace. ShareScope has fwd p/e 16.5 falling to 15.5 and fwd Divvy 1% each of next 2 years. Good business and worth considering. I don't hold.
Skip IGSB ETF; T‑Bills Give Similar Yield, Lower Risk
Thinking short-term bonds? Analysis says skip IGSB ETF for now. Re-inflation risks could hurt returns, while T-Bills offer similar yield with less risk. Investing
ITRK Jumps 11% Amid Strategic Split Review
#ITRK strong start to year and reiterates guidance. Launch of Strategic Review which may split the company up. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14.4 falling to 13.3 and fwd Divvy 4.5% rising to 4.8%, BEFORE 11% jump today. Very interesting business....
IEA Predicts Global Oil Demand Decline in 2026
IEA: “Global oil demand is expected to fall by 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, revised down from growth of 640,000 barrels per day seen in last month’s report. The pace of decline will subside in our base case...
China's GDP Obsession Fuels Persistent Overcapacity
1/9 Very good FT article on why overcapacity is structurally embedded into the Chinese economy. It quotes one (anonymous, of course) investor who notes that "Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity." https://t.co/uKm2LNhqXd via @ft
Indonesia Ditches Diesel, Saves $2B with Solar Power
Indonesia on the move: Its electricity monopoly moves to retire 2,396 diesel generators across 741 locations > Will replace them with solar + storage and micro-hydro, slashing 200,000 barrels of oil imports/ day > Saves $2b in avoided oil imports every single...
Sudan's Pound Ranks 6th Worst, Down 26% Amid War
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 26% against the USD over the past year. Given Sudan’s brutal civil war, it’s surprising that the pound hasn’t depreciated by more....
Europe Must Match Asian Prices to Secure LNG
If Europeans want to avoid gas shortages, they need to pay competitive prices — or their LNG shipments will keep getting diverted to the highest bidder in Asia. Map from @Kpler https://t.co/BUf2kkzmNN
2026 Super‑El
Let me clarify: - Upstream ops benefit from higher CPO price initially - In severe El Niños, lower output counteract the positive effect from higher CPO prices - Malaysia will be less impacted by droughts than Indonesia - The B50 fuel mandate in...
Hormuz Tensions Shift Oil Prices: Spot vs Futures
The Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market: Spot vs. Futures – A Straightforward Classroom Explanation https://t.co/T7wjTKmYFV
1979 Oil Demand Peak Decoupled Growth From Fossils, Not Power
NEW ANALYSIS: @ember_energy just dropped new report on how the 1970s energy crises decoupled economic growth from fossil fuels but not from electricity. Global oil demand per capita peaked in 1979 and has never recovered. Makes for a fascinating reading. https://t.co/Ehd4UR5bJl https://t.co/Z1XLOJcrkK
Beijing Turns to Credit Subsidies to Revive Demand
1/7 Interesting Caixin article on Beijing's plan to support the economy by further subsidizing credit: "In a more forceful push to boost China’s sluggish domestic demand, policymakers are trying to make fiscal policy do more of the heavy lifting." https://t.co/4e1cuLLgF4
Leaders Launch Emergency Group to Address Middle East Energy Crisis
IMF Managing Director @KGeorgieva, @WorldBankGroup President Ajay Banga & I met in Washington for the inaugural meeting of our Emergency Coordination Group on the impacts of the Middle East conflict on energy markets, the global economy & the most vulnerable...
CRPR Edges Out Danger Zone, EBITDA Question
#CRPR good to see them inching out of the danger zone …not sure EBITDA is the correct measure in an asset heavy indebted business but I’m old fashioned like that https://t.co/ioDi7MeZfx
Acquisition‑driven Growth Often Ends with Surprising Exits
#ABDP Dr Routh left a suprise https://t.co/ldjsQSeRcK Acquisition driven growth often ends this way https://t.co/2cHFTHOvPH
Intel Poised for Agentic AI Surge, Nvidia Also Benefits
I wrote on $INTC on March 29th as a new idea based on Agentic AI requiring more server microprocessors per gigawatt versus chat-based AI. Though the stock is up over 50% already since then, I think there is more upside...
Timeless Value Investing Beats Every Market Shift
The market changes every decade. The principles don't. New asset classes. New technologies. New narratives. But buying below intrinsic value? Still works. Margin of safety? Still works. Patience? Still works. Ben Graham figured this out in the 1930s. Mr. Market still hasn't gotten...
Pakistan's Foreign Aid Dependence Stalls Economic Growth
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan lives on foreign handouts. That’s one of many reasons why its growth lags WAY BEHIND India and China. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/sz9RmfWeXZ
FT Unveils China's “Sock 2.0
My work on this earth may be nearly over -- or at least my work of the last 4ys could be in its final chapter. The FT's Big Read is on the China sock 2.0 (one of my favorite phrases) and...
China’s New Bank Lending Slows as Household Credit Halves
Caixin: "The slowdown in China's new bank lending was driven largely by household credit, which rose 490.9 billion yuan in March, nearly halving from 988.8 billion yuan a year earlier." https://t.co/8VQxfrVL2I
Three Confluences Make Every Trade High‑Probability
You should have at least 3 confluences before entering a trade Market structure, supply and demand, and confirmation. That could be a key support and resistance level, a liquidity sweep, or a breakout and retest. When multiple factors align, your setup becomes stronger. That’s...
P/E Drops 18% as EPS Growth Accelerates
Nice charts from Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley on earnings. P/E multiple down 18% (pretty rare) and EPS growth continues to trend higher. Quite the bullish combo. Thanks @dailychartbook for sharing it in tonight's report. https://t.co/2wvXsU1CWb
China's Tech Surge Outpaces West, Threatening Portfolios
Jason Huang explains how China is likely outpacing the West in tech generally. Well worth watching the full Lex Fridman podcast for the deeper insights whether you are a risk management student, or just a personal investor. This stuff is...
China's March Exports Strong Despite Modest Trade Surplus
China's March trade numbers are stronger than they appear at first glance. Strong imports pulled down the trade surplus, but export performance was actually strong -- last year's March base created a high hurdle for the y/y comparisons 1/ many https://t.co/OmqlCGNNNd
Staples Lagging S&P Signals No Imminent Bear Market
One of the bigger clues we were never headed for a bear market and things were quite contained was the action in Staples. Staples have lagged the S&P 500 on a relative basis since mid-February. If the end was near like...
NVDA Poised for New Highs After False Breakdown
Mag 7 is coming back, just as everyone couldn't get rid of those names fast enough to buy Staples at 25x. Seriously, that happened just a couple weeks ago. Nice one from @scottcharts in his report this AM that shows NVDA...
Stable Breadth and Calm Credit Spreads Signal Near New Highs
Many are wondering how stocks could be one good day away from new highs again. There have been many clues things weren't as bad as they were telling us, but my two favorites are A/D lines and credit spreads. Breadth never broke...
Rising Chinese Imports Squeeze Margins, Price Hikes Looming
China imports rose +23%YoY for Q1 2026 and March rose 28%YoY. Meanwhile, exports slowed to 2.5%YoY. In other words, Asia terms of trade is deteriorating and even is supposedly immune but you can see from PPI and now imports that costs...
Media Misstates Rial, Actually Up 8% Since War
Since Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, frequent media reports indicate that the value of the rial has plunged. WRONG. Today, the rial fell just 0.3% vs the USD. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, the rial has gained 8%...
Analysts Forecast S&P Earnings Double 30‑Year Average
Wall Street analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth at double the 30-year average. They're more bullish than the bulls. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/F5lhKKAzl8
WM Senibong IPO: Bet on Singapore’s Land Scarcity
The upcoming RM500 million IPO of WM Senibong isn't a signal of Malaysia's domestic property strength—it's a massive, coordinated bet on Singapore's shrinking land space. While the headlines focus on the target valuation of more than RM2 billion, there's a...
TLT Trading Volume Hits Three-Year Low, Signaling Waning Bond Interest
TLT is a good proxy for bond market interest. And interest (volume) is now at a 3+ year low. * $TLT's volume today was 12.720M shares, the lowest daily volume since January 2023 (and this INCLUDES holidays) * The 5-day average volume...
Weekly Technical Patterns Highlight Diverse Short‑Term Strength Leaders
List of short term relative strength leaders (quite a diversity of industries, not just semis). Study the weekly patterns that are technical drivers with these: HOG, STT, SPG, INTC (most all semis), ALAB, MRVL, AMZN, PCAR, CMI, KMX, TEL,...
Dated vs Prompt Brent Futures Spread Widening
Dated Brent crude vs prompt Brent futures Normally pretty tight, but not right now. Mind the gap. https://t.co/sTrTsmJpQs
Super‑El Niño 2026 Threatens Asian Equity Markets
A super-El Niño is projected for 2026. This will have serious consequences for Asian equities: https://t.co/pmx3AfkBgQ
Goldman Predicts Modest 2026 Price Rise, Many Regions Fall
Goldman Sachs' latest forecast expects U.S. single-family home prices, as measured by Case-Shiller, to rise +0.7% in calendar year 2026 In that type of environment, around 35%-45% of regional housing market post outright annual nominal declines https://t.co/D37QmxUgc9
Home Sales Plummet as Supply Peaks, Condos Hit Record Low
Single-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly. https://t.co/B5wK4sU0lw https://t.co/jYisYhV9je
North Korean Won Plummets 62%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 62% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON = THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/dxHRFaYUhS