
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx

The $USD is mostly little changed. The focus is on $JPY. Beijing stepped up export restrictions to ostensibly curb Tokyo's remilitarization and PM Takaichi reported pressed BOJ harder not to raise rates. See https://t.co/kOoSATxYUA https://t.co/1osffkrwvk
Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm

Atlas' Burden Shifting to $6 Copper? Bitcoin's Gravity Pull - Copper may need to remain above $6 a pound or else. If the economically and stock-market-sensitive industrial metal follows falling Bitcoin, iron ore, crude oil and Chinese government-bond yields, it...

A Lot Riding on Copper Remaining Over $6 - Copper, the S&P 500 and US Treasury 30-year yield on the same scale may emphasize the implications of some normal reversion. That the metal hasn't had a year since 2021 without...

Is Copper a Prudent Short? Next to its industrial commodity and inflation companions -- iron ore, Brent crude oil and Chinese Government 10-year Bond yields (CGBs) -- copper might be too hot. From a base of 100, starting with our iron...

TANKER RATES for chartering vessels to carry crude (or other dirty products such as fuel oil) have surged to the highest for more than three years as the United States and Iran edge towards war. The Baltic Exchange dirty tanker...
Successful stock picking isn’t just picking winners. It also means picking out the losers in your portfolio. The greatest advantage in public markets is “You can sell”. But you must know when to sell. https://t.co/iL6AHqtOyR

The number of core goods in the PCE basket with >2% inflation is clearly on the rise https://t.co/zfnw5c3Qnr

Norway central bank seen delaying the next rate cut to the 3rd quarter https://t.co/DQxoj354TR via @ottummelas https://t.co/jKYdw66YUF

Your current journal tells you how much you lost. @tradesviz shows you how you could have won. 🤯 You can re-run past trades with different exit rules to see what would have happened. Look at a side-by-side comparison of a losing system...

Shorts The Process remains Bearish on these Bombs $MSFT $AMZN $META $JPM $TSLA That's where your risk should have been managed https://t.co/MykLEB8Umh
#TPX raised Guidance and says has momentum. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 9.3 falling to 7.9; could be cheap still. I don't hold.
#BTG (used to be #BEG ) "in line with expectations". "Challenging" backdrop helping them. ShareScope has fwd p/e 10.8 falling to 10.2 with fwd Divvy 3.8% rising to 4%; lot to like. I don't hold.

#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: While the US builds tariff walls, India opens doors. India has just revised its tax treaty with France and lowered dividend taxes for investors. https://t.co/CWxHPKVvRY

"We are already starting to see stress build in the derivatives market. $SPX fixed strike volatility has risen by roughly 1.5 vol points across the curve, while $SPX put call skew remains near its year-to-date highs" @t1alpha https://t.co/wXfaVxC4VW
Question for traders and investors: During the darkest periods of drawdowns in your capital, what was the best thing you did to manage your mental health? ⬇️
A 50% win rate with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio and solid risk management is all you need to make money trading over time. 50 wins × $600 = +$30,000 50 losses × $300 = -$15,000 100 trades with a 50% win rate and...
New traders tend to set themselves back with one of these: A big irrational revenge trade. Doubling their position size due to greed. Ignoring their stop loss due to ego. They give back weeks of progress in hours. Emotional weaknesses are expensive...
Your trading system must be designed for consistent execution with an edge, not perfection with every trade.

While we're short the Financials $XLF , liquid High Yield $HYG hasn't signaled get out yet https://t.co/NhKXuZMmrb

Software stocks have lost a third of their value since the end of October. https://t.co/gSO2zdCAMQ

SECTORS: we remain short of the Financials $XLF and $XLY during a MONTHLY #Quad3 https://t.co/VUVE8GW3B6
Huawei’s revenues surge to US$127 billion as it continues to defy US sanctions Wait, thought controls were "working"?... https://t.co/fueavLdQgI
The Court of First Instance of Hong Kong has granted the Securities and Futures Commission a worldwide interim injunction order in legal proceedings against Mr Chan Ching Wa, a former staff of the Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Limited (HKEX),...
EUR/USD neutral; testing 50‑day SMA/61.8% fib at 1.1769. Momentum weak after brief post‑SCOTUS dollar selloff; tariff uncertainty persists. Insight: short below 50‑day SMA to 1.1670–1.1650. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Hits Japanese Firms With Export Bans—Move marks another escalation in economic campaign against Japan over prime minister’s Taiwan comment @wsj_douglasj https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5 https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5

#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...

European auto sales fall even as EV demand cushions the drop https://t.co/MRYjYElcs2 via @MonicaRaymunt https://t.co/fVEMCkDkcZ
SCMP: "Consumer spending during China’s Lunar New Year rose modestly this year, according to early official data, as authorities extended the holiday and stepped up stimulus measures to support domestic demand." https://t.co/d5LzFaVd4V via @scmpnews
The irony is that to reduce trade imbalances, tariffs should mostly substitute for currency devaluation, in which case a single, universal tariff is likely to be far more effective than a hodgepodge of bilateral and sectoral tariffs. https://t.co/QVpoGNLwuH

So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. https://t.co/phOREv8G8z
🔴This is one of the WORST starts for the S&P 500 to the year in HISTORY: S&P 500 is lagging the rest of the world equities by 8 percentage points, the worst start to a year in at least 17 years. The...

The opening range breakout strategy does not perform the same on every market. Backtesting the 3 minute ORB on Nasdaq futures versus Gold futures showed a clear difference. Nasdaq produced a higher win rate and a smoother equity curve with consistent expansion...
.@dunne_insights: “China controls roughly 70 percent of rare earth mining and over 90 percent of processing capacity. Without a thriving domestic EV industry creating sustained demand, America lacks the economic incentive to build the…supply chains.” https://t.co/hU5loovdzh
Exactly. I’m not sure real people are selling stocks anymore, just algo driven slop driven by news headlines tagged to “Anthropic”.
1/7 Reuters: "China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses." https://t.co/BDS9UWJaXO
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...

#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: At the margin, the world is making a Pivot away towards India. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = MAKING LOTS OF US ENEMIES. https://t.co/3H8maAoa62
So the Citrini piece is looking for about a 38.2% retracement by mid 2028 after an October '26 peak. Fibonacci is everywhere. 👀 @JC_ParetsX https://t.co/Ppnb1uG5Xl

Turtle Soup · Sweep High = Short · Sweep Low = Long Wait for the fakeout, then enter opposite.
Tech is getting hammered on AI worries, but is this really just another opportunity to buy solid companies when they are cheap? We think so. https://t.co/YjUXwZUJx9
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
The software industry's payroll has been flat since ChatGPT launched. The AI productivity boom may be eliminating the workers who created it first. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/xRx5vLZILo
I've been a bit quiet on here for a while. I'm still busy over at @smartkarma. Over the weekend I published two pieces on TICO (Toyota Industries Co (6201 JP)) which is currently undergoing a Tender Offer by Toyota Asset...

The most worrying stat of the month: Pending Home Sales falls to lowest level lowest level ever recorded.
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
Throwback to when the iBuyer model was going to take over the real estate market.