CAPE Predicts 10‑year Returns Slipping to Single Digits
However, the CAPE model (which holds that today’s 10-year P/E ratio determines the 10-year forward return) suggests that a secular peak may not be that far away. As scary as it sounds, all the CAPE model is predicting is that the 10-year CAGR will moderate from 15% to somewhere in the single digits.
Asian Q1 Trade Surplus Rises as Chip Exports Soar
Rather large increase in the trade surplus of a couple of important Asian economies in the first quarter. Weak oil and gas import volumes in March, but mostly surging chip exports https://t.co/LP5kTo4Nfs
Burry Abandoning His Big Short Would Change Everything
Imagine if @michaeljburry gave up on his big short thesis on the first short squeeze. https://t.co/PmWJhvZ8Ss
Slight Price Dip, Spring Surge Revives Sellers Across 12 Counties
Prices are down a little from last year, and we’re seeing a spring uptick in 2026. Both things are true. And sellers have been coming back to the market. Some perspective and stats for 12 counties on my blog today. https://t.co/mTNHN4Zkh3...
Weekly One‑Idea Episodes on The Options Trench
Thanks for the share 🐴 Erik and I actually release an episode every week. We're about 6 weeks into it. Each one is organized around 1 idea. It's a podcast and YT channel called The Options Trench 🫡
Small‑cap Growth Outpaces Large Caps, Defying Value Expectations
FT: "US small caps are outperforming big caps by a whopping 8.5% YTD. That’s a lot, especially given the chronic underperformance of small stocks over the past six years or so...Given the environment we are in (energy up, software down,...
AI Chip War Sparks Investor Risks in US-China Trade
AI Chips Are A Looming Battlefield In U.S.-China Trade. What Investors Should Know. https://t.co/FcrSZnqDwz $TSMC $AMSL $INTC $MU $NVDA $TSLA
Introducing MAX Factor: Next Evolution in Factor Investing
Investment professionals have long relied on factor investing—strategies built around characteristics like value, momentum, and quality—to generate returns beyond the broad market. Now we have MAX factor... by @larryswedroe https://t.co/DZtxWXTd85 https://t.co/ymSaV8Pukv
Watch AVGO December ER Gap for Next Price Move
$AVGO watching the December ER Gap for next levels if price wants more. Basing on the daily would be beneficial soon.
2026 European Gas Shock Pales Beside 2022 Crisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
Nasdaq Extends Rally Post‑V Bottom, Inverse CL Correlation Persists
NAZ on extended run up for now after V bottom. Indexes still invers correlation to CL on the intraday charts. https://t.co/YxtwQfvRaC
Morgan Stanley's 30 Picks to Grow Competitive Edge by 2027
Morgan Stanley recently revealed the 30 stocks they believe will expand their competitive advantages through the year 2027. Here is their full portfolio of stocks:
Gulf Shut‑ins Suggest Negative Prices, Futures Mislead
Here's something to think about and chew on: The mass production shut-ins across the Gulf (~13 MMbpd) imply effectively negative crude prices West of Hormuz—otherwise they could and would still be selling to someone. But futures markets are "implying" (as far as...
Q1 ETF Launches Surge, Set to Smash Flow, Volume Records
256 ETF launched in Q1, which is 6% ahead of last year's record pace. They're also on pace to break last year's flow record by 30% and volume record by 50%(!). Still a lot of game left but man, unbelievable....
IGV Slides to Critical $73‑74 Support Zone
$IGV (software) down another -3% today after being down -4% yesterday... now down -37% in the past 6 months with many smaller software names down 40-60% in the same timeframe. Looking at $IGV on the daily chart... it's already sliced through...
CPI Trend Indicator Remains Bullish for S&P 500
Today's CPI report was in line, with the core better than expected. Our long-term CPI trend indicator doesn't care about economists' expectations or excluding short-term moves in volatile sectors. It simply compares the headline CPI to its 6-month average. It...
Chicago's Post‑COVID Boom: Housing Soars, Nightlife Thrives
I can't figure out why the switch flipped but Chicago is in boom times right now. Home values are skyrocketing (in the nice neighborhoods) and even on weeknights bars and restaurants are humming. I've lived here since 2009 and I...
Uranium Stock Shows Strong Cup‑Handle Breakout, Awaiting Peace‑Talk Fallout
$UUUU Daily. Strong open for uranium/rare earths play with massive "handle" on cup & handle pattern which may as well be the Big Dipper. Could get traction next week if peace talks fall apart. https://t.co/SWvjRhH1Of
Canadian Rents Plunge, Oversupply Threatens Landlords
Canadian Rents Have Gone Down 18 STRAIGHT MONTHS & More New Construction Rental Supply Is Coming Than Ever Before In History Yeah, Mom & Pop Landlords who bought units in the last 6 years knew things were bad But in some Canadian...
Quants, Commodities and Long Vol Outperformed Amid Macro Reversal
This week: March showed how fast macro can turn. Crowded trades unraveled, discretionary funds were hit and the winners came from a very different mix: quants, commodities and long vol https://t.co/mab8WrSfpa via @LinkedIn
Secular Bull Market Persists, Setting Fresh Highs and Lows
The chart below shows that the secular bull market remains firmly in place, with a clear series of new highs and new lows. https://t.co/QhqNCfk4Bw
Dollar Slides, Commodity Currencies Surge as War Winds Down
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
60/40 Portfolio No Longer Works in Today's Market
"Remember the old days? When bonds rose and provided an offset to weaker equity returns? The days when the “60/40” portfolio was built to better withstand short-term fluctuations in volatile market conditions? That’s so yesterday." Our latest quarterly...
Software Crash Amid Unprecedented S&P 500 Surge
Software is crashing again today. The two-day move from Wed-Thursday was a complete outlier. We've never seen the S&P 500 up that much with software down that much. https://t.co/D51WWe6WwH
Gas and Diesel Prices Rise Despite Trump's Oil Rhetoric
US gas price increase. Trump talks of US oil. So why are gas— and diesel — prices increasing like this?
Semiconductor ETFs Hit All‑Time Highs Defying Weak Tech Narrative
new ALL-TIME highs for semiconductor $SMH stocks... don't be fooled by anyone pitching the broad "technology stocks are weak" narrative... https://t.co/HjCgXLzXdd
KBE Displays Classic, Common Chart Setup Today
$KBE - Went through a lot of charts this morning... This is a very common setup... https://t.co/CuzFyU3Ijk
2026 Charitable Deductions Available With Standard Deduction
IMPORTANT: in 2026, you can deduct charitable donations even if you take a standard deduction (up to $1,000 for single, or $2,000 married) Please track all your cash donations in 2026. They could help save on taxes (whereas you had to...
CDNL Secures First Data Center Contract, Estimates Look Promising
Added $CDNL to @GeoInvesting infrastructure and data center screens, on its first data center contract win today. At first glance.. not crazy cheap, but estimates look good and this opportunity probably isn’t in estimates. Worth tracking. @InfoArbMonitor https://t.co/690KfBGtyX https://t.co/vI99XC51TC
Bean Oil Leads, Watching 3‑Bar Breakout
BEANS: Area of interest (currently on 3 bar breakout mode). (bean oil RS leader) https://t.co/XpOkJOA0dK
OPEC+ Supply Chains Crippled, US Fuels Global Allies
So, the oil and gas infrastructure of major OPEC+ producers in the Gulf and Russia is being blocked, disrupted, and damaged... While China is forced to halt exports of petroleum products, and the US is supplying fuel to satellite countries like...
Cash Balance Plans Offer $250K Tax Deductions for High Earners
There’s a lesser-known retirement plan for high earners that almost nobody uses If you’re earning mid six figures or higher, this plan can potentially unlock a $250K+ tax deduction each year Here’s a simple explanation of how a cash balance plan works:
Brazil Real Surges as Markets Sense Ukraine De‑escalation
As soon as markets decided Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn't going to lead to WW3, Brazil's Real began rallying hard. It's the same now. The US is clearly eager for a ceasefire and trying to de-escalate. The Brazilian...
Bond P/E Triangle Signals Potential 4.5% Yield Spike
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
Quarterly Return Stacked® ETF Commentary Now Available
Our quarterly commentary for the Return Stacked® suite of ETFs is now available. https://t.co/s2N4agfveH https://t.co/fjJfOvDSSc
Use RSI as Context, Not a Standalone Signal
RSI isn’t the problem… your usage is. 📉 Most traders get stopped out because they treat RSI like a signal — not context. Fix this one mistake and everything changes. 👇 Comment “RSI” and I’ll send you the free indicator + full setup...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Reduce Fed Urgency on Oil Shocks
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
TLT Faces Mid‑Range Resistance, Signal to Sell
Swing chart of TLT shows resistance in middle of prior range, currently on a sell. https://t.co/mtjHPXt3sa
S&P 500 Eyes Best Two‑Week Rally Since Oct 2022
The S&P 500 could post its best 2-week rally since the bull market's beginning (Oct 2022) +7.2% so far. https://t.co/ojdbObVpIp
Software Hits Feb Lows, RSI Shows Positive Divergence
Nice one from @FrankCappelleri in his note this AM. Software is back to the late February lows, but positive divergence with RSI. https://t.co/G96kkZXR5P
TSLA Poised to Break 349, Target 350‑354 Today
$TSLA doesnt feel like a long til it can break something out. 349 is set up as that break today with room to 354 if the 350 level isnt too much trouble on a friday. #TradingStrategies https://t.co/LdIOJQ5Vup
Why Top Flippers Skip Banks for Funding
Why would top fix & flippers like @abrahams.jonathan NOT go to a bank to fund their projects? Several reasons. #fixandflip #newconstruction #realestateinvesting #privatemoneylender
USDA Confirms 2025/26 Soybean Meal, Corn Export Deals
USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales for delivery in 2025/26: ▪️100,000 metric tons of soybean meal to Italy ▪️125,640 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations
Natural Gas Buy Day Begins, Seasonal Window Opens April 13
NAT GAS: Buy Day today. It starts a long seasonal window April 13 courtesy MRCI research. https://t.co/Ei34TuCMVk
Bonds Unfazed: Inflation Still Poor, Outlook Deteriorates
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
AMLM Poised for Rebound as Technicals Cool
Disseminated on Behalf of American Lithium Minerals Inc $AMLM $AMLM has been actively announcing acquisitions to build a diversified portfolio (Lithium, REE, Gold, Silver, Copper) in mining-friendly areas. It's also mentioned interest in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization for its projects (gold,...
Consider Trimming $SNDK Positions, Not Initiating New Longs
So many nice set ups in $sndk the past two weeks. I’d think today is a better trim/sale. NOT start a fresh long https://t.co/oHwOKAnc4c
Mag 7 Valuations Slip to 25x Forward P/E
Even the Mag 7 have come way down in terms of valuation, following their 17% drawdown since last October’s high. The cohort is now trading at a modest 25x forward P/E. https://t.co/EotkZU3iSu
Bullish Outlook: Positioning vs Seven-Day S&P Rally
When I ask others for the bull case from here in stocks, by far the most common answer is positioning and CTA buying. I have trouble squaring that idea with the fact that the S&P 500 is up 7 days in...
POC Levels Are Interest Zones, Not Unbreakable Barriers
Regarding the "point of control" largest volume node in $SPY that I retweeted, keep in mind it is simply a level of interest, not an impermeable barrier. Look at the similar level for $QQQ $SMH $IWM, markets blasted thru them https://t.co/9wft3GF3zO