Ground Beef Prices Surge Over 20% YoY, Hitting Affordability
Ground beef prices CONTINUE TO SOAR. Prices are higher than during the pandemic and up over 20% from a year ago. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/20cGSN0AIn
Unlock Early 401k Access for Tax‑Free Retirement
Many finance influencers say "get your 401k match, then invest in a brokerage" Main argument is that you can retire early with brokerage I disagree because you can access your 401k early with 72t SoSEPP, or Rule of 55. If you're a high...
VIX Returns to Pre‑War Levels, Signaling Calm
VIX signals worst of the war is over. All three (VIX, futures and VIX of the VIX) back down to pre-war levels Could shift back higher (of course) but currently, back to normal https://t.co/q54gbzBIYf
AI Scares Investors, but SaaS Moats Still Offer Buying Chance
SaaS companies are being crushed due to the perceived loss of moat from AI threat. Personally I am staying away from them. However, if you have deeper understanding of some of them and know that their moat is not lost,...
Non‑residential Investment Barely up 2.4%
Non-residential investment increased at just a 2.4% rate in the 4th quarter. Good thing Trump keeps talking about that $18 trillion in foreign investment coming in, otherwise no one would know anything about it.
Hidden $28 Brent Spread Signals Market Danger
The S&P 500 just posted its 7th straight gain. The Dow turned positive for 2026. Everyone is celebrating the ceasefire. But there's a number hiding in plain sight that should terrify you: physical Brent crude is trading at $124.50 while...
Markets Poised at Critical Levels Ahead of NY Open
Markets are sitting right at those make-or-break levels before the NY open. Everyone's watching to see which way we break. Tomorrow we'll be tracking these key zones live with the DOTS indicator to catch the moves as they develop. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
Gurgaon Real Estate Now Driven by Holding Power, Not Demand
Pricing in Gurgaon is not driven by demand anymore. It’s driven by who is willing to wait. Most people track buyers. Smart money tracks holding power. Because markets don’t move on transactions. They move on who refuses to sell. Here’s the shift no one is talking...
SMH Rockets From Collapse to All‑Time High in Week
$SMH - From Failed Breakdown to All Time Highs in a week. Ricky Bobby Level Shake N Bake for Semis.... https://t.co/7WTLTI8n0f
Energy ETF Rebounds, Narrowing Gap with SPY
$XLE vs. $SPY - Good to see energy giving back some relative performance.... Wrote a little bit about this two weeks ago if you missed it. https://t.co/p4Mh0JYSAb
Fragile Ceasefire Sparks 6865 S&P Target
A Fragile ‘Ceasefire’ & 6865 $SPX Price Target This morning's premarket rant - before coffee. I should have said $6845. After we hit it + given $184M in Sept $6900/6910 calls were sold today, my VIX 19.29 bounce level is likely in...
Ignore Indices; Find Opportunities in MAG7 Stocks
MSFT Swing went 300% this morning from yesterday. I was happy about that. One thing I’ve been challenging myself to do lately is not focus so much on the indices when price action is nasty. There will always be opportunity...
Camp Hustle Turns Travel Into Lasting Business Connections
You know that feeling when you leave a conference and think "...why did I fly across the country for that?" Well, you won't be thinking that at Camp Hustle. Campers leave with deal leads, co-investors, and friends they're texting a week later....
NYSE A/D Line Defies Doom, Bull Market Persists
I know all the market breadth experts said the end was near this time two weeks ago, but the NYSE A/D line simply pulled back to a longer-term trend line before accelerating higher. Will it make a new high? Yes, as...
S&P 500 A/D Line Holds, Hinting at Bullish Turn
Nine days ago we pointed out how the S&P 500 A/D line didn't make a new low, even though price did. This bullish call wasn't popular at the time, but this is consistent with potentially better times ahead. https://t.co/HIoWdB8H7c
7‑Day Wins Historically Signal Strong
The past 20 years that saw a 7-day win streak also saw the S&P 500 higher for that full year 95% of the time and up 18.8% on avg. The only year this didn't work was 2000 and the tech bubble....
Wealth Comes From Normalized Earnings, Not Quarterly Spikes
Most investors obsess over next quarter's earnings. The ones who actually build wealth ignore them entirely. Intrinsic value runs on normalized earnings, what the business earns in a normal year, not its best year. Peak profits are a trap dressed up as a...
GraniteShares Launches Weekly Payouts; 22 YieldBOOST ETFs Exceed 100% Yields
GraniteShares just announced weekly distributions for 22 YieldBOOST ETFs — some with dist. rates above 100%. Read here: https://t.co/tiKKBQQ33w @WillRhind @GraniteShares
ISOs Offer Wealth Potential, But Tax Risks Loom
For clients receiving Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) as part of their compensation, the potential for wealth creation can be significant – but so too is the risk of adverse tax consequences if not handled properly. https://t.co/YA6mBVn0qA #ISOs
Live Talk: Iran War Ceasefire's Impact on Oil
Sitting down with @notthreadguy for a live conversation about the Iran War, the "ceasefire", and what it all means for oil. Starting now, tune in!
Broaden View: Compare Foreign Holdings Across All Sovereigns
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
Memory ETF DRAM Surpasses $1 B in First Week
The Memory ETF $DRAM keeps growing volume, now $1b in its first week, outside of IBIT & Co, it's the most successful launch in years. Came out of left field too, I def didn't see this coming. I'm still not...
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
Physical Brent Market Stays Robust; Prompt Oil Premiums Soar
The physical Brent market remains very, very strong, even if Dated Brent has come off from its all-time high reached on Tuesday (down around $15). Physical premia for prompt oil (or as my colleague @AlaricN calls it: “ASAP barrels”) are...
Adobe Shares Slump to 2018‑level Lows
New multi-year low for Adobe - back to prices last seen in late 2018 $ADBE
S&P Equal‑Weighted Index Holds Trend, Forward P/E 18.2
Taking a longer look, we can see below that the S&P 500 equal-weighted index is right on its rising trendline, while the forward P/E ratio is at 18.2x. It’s hard to accuse the market of being over-extended, at least in...
Leverage Aggression Leads to Sharp Market Reversals
This is One thing markets keep reminding us all; Don’t get aggressive with leverage. Silver fell ~30% in a single day. Crude Oil dropped ~20% in a day. Both happened after strong rallies, when sentiment was at its peak. Cont.
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Gold, Not Currency, Will Dominate Future Reserves
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
ARM Tight Near 10‑EMA After Catalyst, Watch Tomorrow
$ARM on the focus list for tomorrow. Tight on the 10ema post catalyst move https://t.co/MlqmQmpgdy
S&P Near Record Highs, Market Breadth Strengthens
S&P is 2.5% away from all time highs, this is not a bull trap. The path of least resistance is higher don’t fight it. Market breadth is improving & bad news is being priced in. Mag 7 also looking stronger
RMV Hits Zero at Critical Support Level
$YSS This RMV thing might just be useful... RMV=0 Yesterday near a key level while showing RS https://t.co/ynbiKA6tE9
Exiting MCD Amid Heavy Chop, Took Profits
$MCD too much chop in the name right now No green to red stop. Made some coin. All out for now
6830 Emits Billions of Gamma Rays—Few Knew
There are those that knew that 6830 had billions of gamma and those that did not https://t.co/lMQgrq5vbK
News Ignored Futures OI; Gold Up, Palladium Hits Low
News today did not lead to higher PM futures open interest (unless you count gold OI being 2.5k contracts off the bottom)... #gold 357k +2.5k #copper 228k +3k #silver 116k +0.6k #platinum 61k +1k #palladium 14.6k -0.6k new low
CAR Set for Wild 0DTE Trap Tomorrow
$CAR not letting up 0DTE tomorrow all they did was trap trap trap this week - going to be the craziest 0DTE day we've seen in quite some time lol
Iran, US Escalate Tensions Ahead of Ceasefire Talks
Both Tehran and Washington are upping the ante ahead of the ceasefire talks over the weekend. But raising the stakes increases the miscalculation risk: “We will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” Iranian...
Positive Breadth Amid Flat Volume Leaves Market Uncertain
Breadth is solidly positive (by a 9-5 margin) but upside volume and downside volume are dead even. "There's something happening here What it is ain't exactly clear" https://t.co/vYUbSQsVwb
Telus Slides 9% to 13‑year Low Levels
Telus $T $TU Canadian telecom still on the move and hitting levels first reached 13-years ago as the stock is -9.2%... getting to see the chart, almost feels like cheating to sidestep such mess, no? https://t.co/S4U5OCaTOh
Run Two Screens to Catch Dollar‑Mover Stocks
Building a momentum watchlist? You gotta run it twice. Most people don't, and that's why they miss the big ones. Screen 1: Full US universe. Top performers 3mo, 6mo, 1yr, YTD. That's where your % rockets live. Screen 2: Same exact screen...
Earnings Growth Drives Market Gains, Balancing Valuations
The forward earnings estimate has been growing at a robust 17% annual rate and the momentum has thus far not been affected by the headlines. This strength has beenenabling the cycle to become more balanced between valuation and earnings. As of...
Chart Signals Disney Buy Despite Personal Skepticism
$DIS sometimes I have to cover the name and buy because the chart says it is time. I am not a big fan of the company. I did like the chart. I don't own in my...
Mexican Startups Overtake Brazil in Q1 VC Funding
Mexican startups outperformed their Brazilian counterparts in the first quarter, raising a total of $404M compared to Brazil’s $240M. Historically, Brazil has been the powerhouse in Latin America for venture capital funding. But it’s not the first time in recent quarters...
Investors Bet Wrong AI Layer; Profits Flow Elsewhere
“The layer you’re investing in may not be where the profits end up.” On the latest @excessreturnpod, we sit down with GMO's Tom Hancock to discuss their excellent recent paper Hype vs. High Conviction. We cover: ☑️the 4-layer AI stack and where...
Emerging Markets Leapfrog Oil, Embrace Energy Tech
Emerging Markets are Leapfrogging Oil and Gas ...just like the Global South leapfrogged landline phones and rapidly adopted cellular at scale. With @KingsmillBond of ember_energy. #uspoli #cdnpoli https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/emerging-market-are-leapfrogging
Fed's 2% Target Deemed Myth; No Near-Term Hikes
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
Rosenblatt Cuts Meta Price Target to $1,015, Keeps Buy
Rosenblatt today lowered its price target on Meta Platforms $META stock to $1,015 down from $1,144 while maintaining its Buy rating
VIX Breaks 2026 Trend, Signals End of Market Chop
The $VIX just broke below its 2026 uptrend line. Combined with positive gamma, this market may be exiting the chop. Time will tell.
Keybanc Cuts Meta Price Target to $760, Stays Overweight
Keybanc today lowered its price target on Meta Platforms $META stock to $760 down from $855 while maintaining its Overweight rating
S&P 500 Swings 4‑5% Weekly, P/E At
The S&P 500 index has continued to fluctuate in an elevated range (4-5% per week), as markets try to find their footing amid the conflicting headlines. The trailing P/E ratio is now 23.3x and the implied equity risk premium is...