Nike at $43: Buy Signal After Fire‑Sale
Full Deep Dive Thesis - Is #NKE a BUY now at $43? I have been receiving DMs. Nike’s stock has been hammered. The brand everyone thought was untouchable… now trading at fire-sale levels. Even Tim Cook just loaded up. So the question everyone’s asking: Is this the moment to buy? I ran the full story through my 7-level decision tree, the same framework I use before putting my own capital on the line. The verdict? It’s right here below.
AI's Second Inning Promises Explosive Growth, Not a Bubble
Are we in an AI bubble? Andy Jassy gave his take in the $AMZN annual shareholder letter: “I’ve followed the public debate on whether this technology is over-hyped, whether we’re in ‘a bubble,’ and if the margins and ROIC will be...
Israel-Lebanon Talks Boost Treasury Gains, Optimism Rises
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
Accountant Launches AI Tax Startup, Secures $12M Seed
In 2023, Dave Haase was a CPA who had been running his own firm in the San Francisco Bay Area for several years when he saw a live demo of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Upon seeing the AI agent successfully file a...
Learn Macro, Trade Oil Retraces, Earn $100 Daily
Told yall what to do as oil retraces This trading thing becomes easier the more macro you learn $100 a day keeps poverty away 📉📉📉 I’ll see some of you inside TBL 🫱🏾🫲🏻
Cameco Poised to Break $120 Resistance Amid Quiet Uranium Sector
$CCJ Daily. Uranium miners been quiet but Cameco shaping up nicely. Trying to break higher from falling channel pattern. Watch back over $120 long to confirm https://t.co/lnHsjzIHhu
Brazil's Real Yields Match Hypothetical 12% US Rates
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Wedge Break Signals Clear Tech Market Direction
This is the kind wedge pattern break that offers clear resolution for tech observers... $DXY Dollar Index: https://t.co/MwWVvohhYo
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
Gold's Clean Rising Triangle Signals Potential Breakout
This rising triangle that has developed on the Gold chart over the past two weeks is remarkably clean... Plenty of scheduled and unscheduled event risk to kick this into a breakout in either direction https://t.co/BgNWHjDL4n
Iran Ceasefire Sends Prediction Markets Into Turmoil
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9
France's $15B Gold Pull Signals Global Reserve Shift
My remarks w/ @DailyCaller on the French withdrawing $15B in gold from the US: “The risk of having foreign reserve assets frozen in the US came up when the US & its allies froze Russian central bank assets in Feb. 2022.” I anticipate...
Prediction Market ETFs Could Become Viable Investment Tools
"On this episode of Trillions, Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber interview Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise and one of those filers, about why prediction market ETFs might make sense" Prediction Markets May Be Coming for ETFs https://t.co/hRoSJZ6Jb2
When Debt Outpaces Income, Fiat Currency Weakens
Throughout history, all fiat currencies eventually face the same pressures. When debt grows faster than income and money needs to be created to fill the gap, the value of that money changes. This isn’t a prediction—it’s a pattern that has repeated...
Dana Soars to ATH, Trim with Trailing Stop
Macro: Dana hits ATH $36.28; 1yr +202%, mkt cap ~$4B. Key: Q4 rev $1.9B beat; Dana2030 $10B target; UBS Buy/TP $40. Risk: beta 2.04, trading above fair value—high volatility. Trade insight: trim into strength; use trailing stop. — Viktor Kopylov,...
Washington Housing Supply Surges 64%, Prices Set to Tumble
What's going on in Washington State? housing supply is skyrocketing, now up to 17,580 listings. That's 64% above the long-term average for March. It seems like there's an exodus of sorts playing out, with metros like Seattle and Spokane spiking on supply. Home...
Rokos Fund Gains 2.1% Monthly, 4.7% YTD
Several people asked for Rokos, so here it is: His hedge fund returned about 2.1% last month, taking the year’s advance to 4.7%. +Discovery: -4.1/+5.7 Full list: https://t.co/AJGsR9CjHg
WASDE Raises Corn, Wheat, Soybean Prices; Trims Soybean Exports
Biggest WASDE changes this month were bumping up corn and wheat prices by a nickel a bushel and increasing soybean prices 10 cents a bushel, but cutting soybean exports slightly.
Missed Google Pivot, Cut Losses at New Low
I did screw up the RDR in $Googl around $315 pivot. That additional new low this morning got me out. I didn’t re-visit Can’t kiss all the babies.
Master Apple Card: Move Money, Fund Cash, Boost Rewards
Just joining the complex Apple Card ecosystem? It's smart to learn how to move your money around, including funding your Apple Cash. Here's a primer that explains how everything interrelates and how to maximize your rewards: https://t.co/ZPP9OBmb9Y #applecard #applecash #banking...
Oil Volatility Soars as US‑Iran Ceasefire Uncertain
Volatility remains exceptionally elevated for oil today. Back and forth in the headlines around whether the ceasefire will hold between US-Iran. The 10-day ATR has 'settled' at 9% - which very volatile. The US-Brent spread is still positive - which is...
Using RDR
VTF saw me play $TSLA for the first time in while. Just a RDR style tactic for cash flow. Booked some gains. Trailing last Third for more perhaps
Live in 45 Minutes: TRACE Reloaded Reveals Market Truth
We are going live for TRACE Reloaded in 45 minutes. Don’t miss your chance to see what’s truly behind today’s market: https://t.co/hA4hvasgi0 https://t.co/vHA7nAA2q6
Global Wheat Stocks Surge, India Drives Surprise Boost
Much larger-than-expected global wheat stocks from USDA this month, mostly based on larger supplies in India per its own govt stock report. Chinese soybean demand was unchanged. Corn supplies were a bit larger than expected. https://t.co/oVsPwLsIX7
From California Mill Idea to $1B Blue Moon Surge
Seeing Blue Moon $BMM $MOON.V flirt with a C$1 billion market cap, the Koala again looks at the US listed tungsten comps and chuckles... What started as a "well, what if we bought this instead of trying to permit a mill...
US Natural Gas Prices Drop to 18‑Month Low
In the middle of what some have described as the worst energy crisis ever (worst than 1973+1979+2022 combined), let me tell you that US natural gas prices are falling toward a 18-month low of $2.6 per mBtu. (And yes, North...
Netflix Nears $100 Hold After Recent Highs
$NFLX recent highs 102.69 a move and hold over is the next level I am watching for stop changes. $100 finally hold today? https://t.co/aGHh7dOTKV
SPY and QQQ Hold Gap Pivot, Spark Rally
Soooo. $spy and $qqq both held yesterday’s gap pivot and rallied. How did u do? #630club
USDA Holds South American Crop Forecast Amid Agency Updates
USDA left South American production alone this month. Interesting after seeing some increases from other agencies on Argentina's corn and Brazil's soybean crops. Conab will be out with its estimates on April 14. https://t.co/2Up1v7VTJr
March Sales Volume up, Prices Slightly Down
March had slightly stronger sales volume this year and slightly weaker prices. I'll have over ten counties of data on my blog tomorrow. What stands out to you? https://t.co/1K0bqpjivW
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
USDA Lifts Wheat Stocks to 938M, Corn and Soy Steady
USDA raised its domestic #wheat ending stocks by 7 million to 938 million bushels, while leaving #corn and #soybean stocks unchanged. #oatt
Avalyn Targets Hard-to-Treat Lung Disease, Prepares IPO
Chasing a tough-to-treat lung disease, Avalyn plans an IPO https://t.co/743svTKTS4 by @gwendolynawu #IPO $AVLN $BMY $ABBV
Visible Market Zones Act as Key Decision Points
It's all about how a market acts in these most visible areas: resistance, partial fill, or full retrace. These visible areas are a form of "decision points". https://t.co/lg9H4G02y9
Marvell Exemplifies One-Time Framing in Extended Stock Runs
I have quite a list of stocks currently on extended runs up. Marvell is also an example of "one time-framing." https://t.co/uOS5Tjya5k
Selloff Was Repricing, Upside Capped, Downside Risks Remain
If you use fundamentals to supplement your technical work as I do, here's what this selloff actually was. We didn't crash. We repriced to fair value. The low landed almost perfectly on the current multiple levels. 21x $305 = 6,405. From here, the...
SPs Rally Eight Days Post Wide-Range Reversal Buy
SPs - now on day 8 of extended run up after Wide Range Reversal Buy at bottom of the swing..... https://t.co/s8IEMHPoQr
Iranian Traders Swap Gold for Bonds Amid War
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
Luck Beats
Sometimes better to be lucky than good. Trailing the all morning short pop on $BOIL, get up to get lunch. come back and throw a new trail for the dub. #TradingLife https://t.co/wtD7BJL7HR
When CEOs Spend Millions Buying Low, They Trust Their Stock
5 signs a CEO actually believes in their own stock: 1. Open market purchase not option exercise - they chose to buy with their own cash 2. Purchase size over $1M - real money not a gesture 3. Stock is near 52-week low...
CTAs Set to Flip $34B Into S&P This Week
"CTAs are currently short $30b S&P 500. Our model suggests that at current market levels CTAs will buy $34b of S&P 500 over the next week (closing out shorts and flipping long)." After yesterday’s move higher in the S&P...
US Market Depth Keeps Dollar King Despite Global Turmoil
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
Balance Spending and Giving: Avoid Selfish Extremes
Once you have enough savings and are on the right path, spend some money, give some away. Don't wait until you're 90. It's okay to buy some luxuries and especially okay to give today instead of waiting for your kids...
Rising Bond Supply Threatens Tight Spreads, Rotate Funds
Bond issuance is surging. More supply into already tight spreads. That math doesn't work forever. When the dam breaks, you want a fund that rotates. $JOJO. https://t.co/rq34u6KTHX
AI Boosts $NOW Amid Wild Drawdown and Mispricing
$NOW drawdown is wild. AI will accelerate its business meaningfully. The SaaS repricing is real, but this one is now wildly mispriced and underestimated.
Six Straight S&P Gains Forecast 11% Median Return
Six for Six S&P 500 up six days in a row and up 6%? Above average returns across the board, with a median return of another nearly 11% 3-months later. https://t.co/bM6BsGKqAZ
Protect Your Family: Estate Planning Beats 40% Tax
If you die without a plan... - The government takes 40% in tax - Probate court costs $100k+ - Your kids get the scraps If you love your family, here's every document you need to protect them: (from a CPA & father of two)
FHA Delinquency Spike Mostly Reporting Artifact, Not Borrower Weakness
New paper argues that 92% of the increase in FHA mortgage delinquencies between Sept. 2025 and Jan. 2026 "is driven by how an FHA policy change is reported rather than increasing financial fragility among FHA borrowers" https://t.co/uRxP5BtOQO
Turkey's Central Bank Loses 128 Tons Gold Amid Lira Pressure
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Mid‑South Generates Double Texas Wealth with Fewer People
The Midsouth (TN + Carolinas) have 24m people combined Texas has 32m And yet, the 3 states of the Mid South picked up 2x as much wealth as Texas ($11b vs. $6b) The mid South is the next great economic region...