Maxing 401(k) 15 Years Yields Near‑Retirement Savings
If tou mqx out 401k for 15 years most people will have almost retirement money.
High Volatility Overprices SPX Calls, Hedging Impossible
A three month 7250 SPX call costs 30. In two weeks if SPX is 6950 it will be worth 45-50. Vol is simply too high to hedge either direction.
Clear, Value‑added Investment Process Beats Noisy Fin TV
Masterful and value-added presentation this morning by @dsaleminvestor ... a thoughtful discussion of investment process and execution (done in a succinct and easily understandable manner). What a contrast to consensus Fin TV. @KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @HedgeyeDJ @hedgeye
Intel’s $51 Level Becomes Critical Short‑Trade Trigger
$51 level on $INTC now important in the other direction. Still willing to play this short but have to see a failed break setup emerge first. https://t.co/mLj03VcO8n
Soybean Speculators’ Long Stance Fueled by Rising Crude
Bullish Soybean Specs May Depend on Higher Crude At about 19% of open interest, soybean complex managed money (hedge fund) positions are the most net long in roughly three years. Are speculators too optimistic despite a supply glut from Brazil? My...
Global Shift: Gold and Yuan Rise as Dollar Recycling Declines
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
Corn Speculators Near Peak Longs as Prices Hover $5
Corn Revisits $5 With Specs Long, Gas Falling At about 15% of futures open interest, net-long corn speculators may be overly optimistic for higher prices. My graphic shows spec longs approaching last year's 1Q peak near 18% -- about when the...
Family Offices Shift to Fractional Talent, Cutting Costs
Bill Ackman replaced his $1M family office legal counsel with a fractional alternative This signals a wider trend in the family office world Families are embracing a hybrid / virtual models Fractional talent Small central teams Lean costs
Oil Spike Threatens Market; SPY Holds Key Levels
📺 THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM: THIS MARKET CAN FLIP FAST Today is a big geopolitical event for the markets. We either see escalation (oil spikes → market drops hard) or de-escalation (ceasefire, partial reopening of Strait of Hormuz → relief...
Unexpected Twist Challenges Narratives on China's Gold Sales
Big non-sequitur to multiple narratives in March about official gold selling & China's level of desperation. 👇
Grab’s Stock Slump Masks Stronger Business Transformation
The Investor's Paradox: Grab's stock is down 43% since September 2025, yet the business is arguably stronger than ever. ✅ Profitability? Check. ✅ AI efficiency? Check. ✅ FinTech scaling? Check. Is the market missing the transformation? I think so. Read...
Magnificent Seven Shed $1.1 Trillion in Market Value
"as of early April 2026, the Magnificent Seven giants have collectively lost $1.1 trillion in market cap." https://t.co/9cSOg8GBjC
Global Trade Will Outgrow Reliance on Hormuz
The future of global trade won’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz via @FT https://t.co/Xiqe7HbQuN
U.S. Industry’s Shift to Natural Gas Cuts Global Price Exposure
The US was far more reliant upon petroleum in the 1970's for industrial fuel and products than we are today, compounding the price shocks of the embargo. Natural gas is more prevalent for industry today and US natgas prices are...
Brazilian Stocks Remain Deeply Undervalued Compared to Global Markets
What an outstanding chart from my friend @RonStoeferle Brazilian equities remain historically undervalued particularly relative to global equities. Some of my favorite LatAm companies here: https://t.co/0uJrl7UKoA https://t.co/GGfYESXC0g
Defensive Tape Calls for Smaller Positions and Patience
Intraday Strategy Note: Defending Capital in a Risk-Off Tape 🧐 We are stepping into a heavily defensive tape today. The broader market is in a definitive risk-off posture, and the energy narrative is completely taking the wheel as we count down...
DRAM ETF Posts Record-Breaking Early Trading Volumes
Was expecting zzzz but Shocker instead.. $DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) traded $250m in first to days, and $10m pre-market today. That makes no sense, esp for a theme ETFs. They prob lined invs up, but even still that's bonkers, Top...
Ethnic Grocers Fill Gaps Left by Legacy Chains
Shoppers closes in Capitol Heights. New Grand Mart leases the 34,000 SF within months. Legacy grocers are shrinking. Ethnic and international grocers are expanding into exactly the spaces they leave behind. Is your retail asset positioned for who’s actually growing...
Start a Roth IRA Now, Millionaire by 50
How high school kids can set themselves up to be a millionaire. 1. Get a job 2. Open a Roth IRA 3. Start contributing $300/month By their mid 50's they'll have a 7 figure account.
VOO Regains Lead Over SPYM in YTD Flows
$VOO back on top after $SPYM had a few days with more YTD flows.. I had a feeling it wouldn't last as VOO's "and I took that personally" > SPYM's "you killed my father, prepare to die" altho the battle...
Dark Shipping Boosts Hormuz Oil Flow to 12 Mb/D
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is up. You don't see that in publicly available data like these from Bloomberg, because ships now transiting are travelling "dark." I'd say we're now at 12 mb/d out of the Persian...
Expect QQQ Bounce to 585 After Trump‑triggered Dip
market started dropping in trump's truth social post. i held the $QQQ bid at 583.25. look for retracement back to 585.
Oil Peaks, AVGO Gains, Markets Brace for Volatility
12 hours until the deadline on the war, Oil hits new highs and futures are at the overnight floor. $AVGO gets a nod with a $GOOGL partnership deal and health care stocks celebrate a better than expected Medicare Advantage deal. $IBIT...
Upper‑middle Class Pays More, Gets Less
The upper middle class is caught in a trap, and many of them don’t realize it. The houses are getting smaller, the lounges more crowded, and the schools pricier. My latest on how the upper middle class is paying more and getting...
China's Fuel Export Ban Threatens Australia's Jet Fuel Supply
Note that the Chinese readout doesn't mention energy security at all. Elephant in the room is China's fuel export ban. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China last year.
Charts Signal Market Victory or Deal Ahead
US stock market charts are predicting a victory or a deal of some sort given the recent price action https://t.co/ynapD94C4E
Wealthy Investors Overpay for Underperforming Managers
96% of wealthy investors are confident their portfolio did well last year. 84% of their wealth managers actually underperformed. On a £5m portfolio, an underperformance gap of 3% costs £7.67m over 20 years. You're taking the risk. Someone else is...
Market Success Lies in Reaction, Not Prediction
This is very true I would just add that not only can you never "do" anything to the market but the only intelligent action in the market is reaction rather than prediction https://t.co/oOyO02Go7K
Dollar Flat vs G10, Krona Drops on Soft CPI
On the Edge of the Abyss: The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are...
Oil Gains Threaten Tech, Boost Market Volatility
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 7, 2026 🚨 Macro + geopolitics in focus today — watch oil and volatility as the Hormuz deadline looms 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Durable Goods Orders (Feb): Exp -1.2%; Prior 0% 0830 - Core Durable Goods...
UK, Japan, Euro Periphery Lose Fiscal Space
What countries are running out of fiscal space? To see that, you mustn't look at absolute 30-year government bond yields (lhs), as those are up everywhere. Look at 30-year trade-weighted differentials (rhs). The UK, Japan and Euro periphery are in...
Zimbabweans Celebrate New ZiG Notes, Restoring Currency Pride
Zimbabweans are LOVING the new ZiG notes… And yes, they got them from ATMs… And Yes, President @edmnangagwa returned the pride & dignity of Zimbabweans by re-introducing the local currency…. ED2030 Woye 🔥🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/eykvrLwJN7
Brent Bulls Bet on Escalation, Buying 22M Barrels
Brent bulls focus on escalation not mediation Investors remain exceptionally bullish about the outlook for Brent as prices grind higher and the United States and Iran show no indication of ending the conflict that has slowed exports from the Persian Gulf...
Food Prices Stable Now, Risk Rising Post‑2026 Conflict
Food prices are stable for now, supported by sufficient availability & high stocks, with only marginal inflation across major economies. But if the conflict persists, risks shift forward: higher input costs or shift to other crops will push prices up...
Boost SPR Now to Hedge Future Conflict‑Driven Oil Spikes
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Approximate capacity 714M barrels Current Status 415M barrels Just a thought, next time military actions might have consequences that may disrupt or otherwise cause the prices of Crude, fuel, gas to spike, you should increase the SPR...
Only 30 Stocks Generate 43% of Market Gains
From Hendrik Bessembinder's updated report: Only 30 stocks (out of 29,000) have produced 43% of wealth creation since 1926 Some will say this is why you just buy a market cap weighted momentum index like the S&P. I would say it proves...
401k Caps Limit; Real Estate Offers Unlimited Growth
A 401k caps your contribution at $24,500 a year. Real estate has no cap. One was designed for the wealthy. The other was designed for employees.
Family Wealth Conflicts Are Inevitable—Here’s How to Resolve
Money talks, but family bonds speak louder. Let me share why family fights about wealth aren't just normal - they're expected. And more importantly, how to fix them. 1/22🧵
His Position Sizing Defies Traditional Investing Rules
Derek Pilecki has compounded at 20%+ annualized over the past five years. In a recent conversation, he broke down his core position sizing rule... and it challenges one of investing's most repeated principles. Here's what he does differently.🧵
US Deadline, Ceasefire Odds Sway Risk Assets, Dollar
The US deadline draws close. It hangs over market activity. It remains binary. A ceasefire will boost risk assets and weigh on the greenback. The opposite is true, as well. Meanwhile, undaunted, the PBOC set the...
Fiscal Strain Drives Rupiah to Record Low
Rupiah at Record Low of 17,080. It’s not just the war. Polisi fiskal memberi bebanan. Between 2025 and April 2026: •Rupiah jatuh 5% in 2025 •Deficit 2.92% of GDP, widest in several years. •Foreign investors sold off bonds •Bank Indonesia (BI) buys govt bonds...
China’s Coal‑Based Urea Shields It From Fertiliser Price Spikes
China produces ~80% of its urea from coal rather than (as most other nations do) natural gas. The method is insulating Beijing from rising nitrogen fertiliser prices. I wrote ⤵️ this @Opinion column about the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry last June. https://t.co/TQg6HHD3J8
US Tech Hyperscaler Valuation Premium Declines
GS: The valuation premium of the US technology Hyperscalers has fallen S&P 500 12m forward P/E multiple https://t.co/29BVbVl8AT
Governance Gaps Highlighted Amid Unanswered CEO Outreach
Just so everyone has the full picture, the Koala has never received a reply to any of these emails to TNR Gold $TNR.V $TRRXF Have never met with or spoken with the CEO (despite trying) Swapped DMs with his son the VP...
War‑Driven Food Prices Shift Slightly, Crisis Not Imminent
Key food commodity prices since US-Iran war started: 🍚 Rice: ⬇️ -6.3% 🌾 Wheat: ⬇️ -0.5% 🥫 Soybean: ⬆️ +0.6% 🌽 Corn: ...
Australian Coal Prices Surge 30% as Asia Shifts From Gas
AUSTRALIA’s coal export prices have risen by around 25-30% compared with the start of the year. Front-month Newcastle coal futures have averaged $137 per tonne so far in April up from $108 in January. Electricity generators across South and East...
US PEG Ratio Diverges From Global Benchmark
GS: The PEG ratio between the US and the rest of the world has re-set https://t.co/jWxIsm2v9R
Probability of Success Integrates Development Risk Into Biotech Valuations
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of. It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions. Here is a table of PoS values: #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus https://t.co/GA3LVSmWFZ
Broadening Forward Earnings Signal Bullish Market Momentum
"S&P 500 forward earnings continues to rise rapidly, while S&P 400 and S&P 600 forward earnings are also moving higher. The broadening breadth of forward earnings in recent months is a bullish development." -Yardeni
Tech's Relative Returns Hit 50-Year Low
GS: We have seen one of the weakest periods of relative returns for technology over the past 50 years Distribution of returns of World Tech vs. World ex. TMT, data since 1973 https://t.co/S5HpmcroXj