Chasing Returns Leads Most Investors to Lose Money
Even with such remarkable performance, the majority of Magellan Fund investors lost money during Lynch's time at the helm. They chased performance, piling into the fund after strong years, only to sell out during market downturns. This is a tale as old time.
AI Liquidity Surge Boosts Austin Real Estate Outlook 2027
My hot take is the AI liquidity events are bullish Austin real estate in 2027.
IRGC Lets Iraqi Oil Ships Through, yet Attacks Fields
So… the Iranian IRGC exempts ships carrying Iraqi oil and allows them to sail through the Hormuz Strait, but drone attacks on Iraqi oil fields continue. https://t.co/PoAWXPyVEz
Iran Declares Iraq Exempt From Hormuz Restrictions
My thesis is already aging well. "Iran says Iraq exempt from any Strait of Hormuz restrictions" https://t.co/VSTaM2D34T
Cheap US Gas Fuels Plastics Boom, Boosts Manufacturing
US natural gas prices have dropped by 30% over the past year, even as global natural gas prices have increased substantially in wake of the war in Iran. Why? We have an abundance. 80% of American made plastics and 80-90% of...
US and International Stocks Record Third‑Worst Year Start
US vs international stocks.. still the 3rd-worst start to a year in the last 30 @augurinfinity $SPY $VEU https://t.co/bv48hVPlK9
All Magnificent 7 Tech Giants Down Over 5% YTD
How are the 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks doing so far this year? 🔴 Microsoft MSFT -22.8% 🔴 Tesla TSLA -19.8% 🔴 Meta META -13% 🔴 Amazon AMZN -9.1% 🔴 Alphabet GOOGL -6.2% 🔴 Apple AAPL -5.9% 🔴 Nvidia NVDA -4.9%
Iran’s Island Chain Secures Strait of Hormuz Dominance
"The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz." Good analysis @WSJ https://t.co/Bq6iyg2c3C
Jones Act Tankers Shield Gas Prices From Market Volatility
Example #1 why the JONES ACT worke by providing long-term fixed rate tankers on dedicated service. What would gas prices be today if 55 Jones Act tankers were not in service but we had to compete for MR tankers on...
National Housing Inventory Growth Plummets From 33% to 4.7%
National Housing Inventory growth has slowed from the peak of 33% YoY last year to now, just 4.67% However, be mindful that the year-over-year comps are a big variable here. Just like it is with Florida's negative YoY inventory...
Cancel YouTube Premium Free Trial Before Billing
Tried the @YouTube Premium free trial for a month and aren't finding it's worth keeping? Not to worry, here's the fast and sure way to cancel service before the 💰 bill comes due: https://t.co/1AaZfLdsMV #youtube #youtubepremium https://t.co/UYsI7WD0vD
Condo Prices Falling, Buyers Struggle to Pay Developers
most see bubbles only in the rear view mirror... Drop in condo prices leave buyers struggling to pay developers https://t.co/GvcQJqp8TJ
Trump Era Mirrors Hoover: Market Overvaluation Sparks Gold Surge
Hoover 1929 vs. Trump 2026: Cycles Favoring Risk-Off vs. Risk Assets - The election of President Donald Trump in 2024 has a disconcerting parallel with that of President Herbert Hoover in 1928 -- US stock-market capitalization stretched to over 2x...
Netflix Valuation Too High, Await Pullback for Safety
Someone recently asked me about my scorecard on Netflix (NFLX). My current take: • Expected value: ~$104 • Upside: Limited at current levels It’s a great business, but not every great business is a great buy today. Price still matters. For now, I’m staying patient and waiting...
Italy Rations Jet Fuel, Cuts Short‑Haul Flights
As I highlighted last week, the jet fuel shortage crisis is already here. Jet fuel rationing in Italy has been declared — priority will be given to flights for medical purposes, government, and long haul. Airlines were told that short...
Market Pauses After Hedge Burn, Awaiting Next Fuel
The market caught its breath this week, burned off some hedges and worked off oversold conditions, now we'll see how much fuel is left in the tank. We discuss in this week's episode. $SPY $QQQ $USO $XLE $VIX Watch here: https://t.co/pQRRTne2Ml https://t.co/NonzTIzPU0
Better Mortgage Spreads Keep Rates a Full Percent Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.45% today, not 6.45%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.07% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
Choose Better, Not More: Long-Term Investing Wins
The secret to stock market success isn’t trading more, it’s choosing better. Learn how long-term investing and patient decision-making can help you outperform and grow your wealth over time.
Dragonfly Capital Forecasts This Week's Market Direction
Dragonfly Capital - What to expect from the stock market this week https://t.co/nYa6prRwe3 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $GLD $TLT and more https://t.co/XAP8Q37TwX
Goldman Sachs Warns of Oil Supply Chain Strain
Golman Sachs. Running out of oil? Supply of supply chains. Derivatives and distillates. How long? Cost? Jobs?
Prioritize Risk‑Reward Over Being Right in Trading
Some people have commented on my oil short last and maybe forget that I said I would not carry overnight risk unless I was at a good size profit and oil had a bad close. The trade already paid for...
RSI Near 2020 Lows, 2022 Scenario Likely, Target 6100‑6208
Reminder: Last week the 5 week RSI was nearly as oversold as in 2020 and 2025. While a V shaped bottom is not impossible, option 2 which is a May-June 2022 type of scenario is more likely here given the...
Markets Rebound Every Crash—Stay Focused Long Term
The stock market went down: • 49% in 2000 • 55% in 2008 • 35% in 2020 • 27% in 2022 • 23% in 2025 But it recovered every single time so far. There will always be short term volatility. That’s totally normal and healthy. Focus on...
Shipping Squeeze: Tanker Rates Surge Amid Iran War
OUT NOW - @ed_fin on historic squeeze in shipping: -Why tanker rates soar 2-10x+ on Iran War🛢️ -Strait re-opening = "feeding frenzy"; if not "crisis"⚓️ -Routes/vessels/stocks best poised 🚢 Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 https://t.co/3ZLXMZR8p2
Apple Poised to Hold, Target 100‑week MA
$AAPL - The most bullish big tech stock this year. Hasn't made a new low for the year since January when it hit the yearly pivot at 243. I expect it to hit the 100 week MA that is currently...
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
MSFT Nears Support; Above 200‑Week MA Signals Low
$MSFT - Closed the week higher after nearing the major support zone at 345-350. A weekly close above the 200 week MA(379) will be a good initial signal of an intermediate term low being in. There's still risk of a...
Quarterly Check: Have You Saved 25% Yet?
A quarter of the year is gone. If your goal is to save $5,000 this year, did you save $1,250 so far? If your goal was to pay off a $3,000 credit card, did you pay off $750...
Long‑term Investing Is Essential for Wealth Growth
Go out a year or more, and it's clear why staying invested is key to building wealth JPMAM https://t.co/MTyltd1yyP
Smart Investors Follow Capital, Not Price
Gurgaon real estate doesn’t move randomly. It moves in cycles of capital. Look closely: • When price rises → smart capital reduces exposure • When price corrects → smart capital accumulates • When liquidity peaks → retail dominates This pattern has repeated across cycles: 2000 → accumulation 2006...
VIX Futures Flatten, Term Structure Normalizes Yet Remains Elevated
Here's what I'm looking at. VX futures are more flat than backwardated when compared to 3/27 levels. And the futures "curve" is tangled up with spot VIX. This is obviously a big improvement but still not "bullish." Meanwhile, the @CBOE...
Review Beneficiary Designations to Boost Advisor Value
5 Beneficiary Designations For Clients To Review Now ➡️How financial advisors can add value for their clients by holding a beneficiary designation review meeting and by being aware of opportunities for changes as their clients' (and the clients' current beneficiaries')...
Gig Work Is Flexible, Taxes Are Complicated
Gig work is flexible. Gig taxes? Not so much. No 1099 doesn’t mean no reporting—and some new deductions sound great… until you realize there are rules attached. It’s one of those “simple until it’s not” situations. Here’s what to know: https://t.co/BXKJJZUpEQ
EU‑US Alliance Crumbling Before Our Eyes
We are watching the complete meltdown of the EU / US relationship in real time currently
Meloni Heads to Doha to Secure Gulf Energy Ties
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Doha Saturday as part of a 2-day diplomatic charm offensive meant to shore up ties with the Gulf and bolster energy supplies hit by the war in Iran https://t.co/qFF0IY3avN via @donatopmancini @ssirletti https://t.co/r8GavWDRH6
Trump Misreads Oil Markets: Global Pricing Overrides Independence
Trump thinks US energy independence protects Americans from Gulf shocks. But he FAILS TO SEE that global markets are pricing all barrels the same. TRUMP = CLEARLY DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE MARKETS FOR OIL. https://t.co/tp5LhHAisM
War Boosts Returns; Your Reaction Is the Real Risk
War actually isn’t a bad time to invest… • Large caps averaged ~11.4% returns • Small caps averaged ~13.8% returns • Volatility was lower than normal The real risk to your portfolio isn’t war It’s your reaction to it.
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports After Sanctions Eased
New Delhi confirms its buying oil from Iran (after US eased sanctions): “… Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports…”
Profitability Drives SaaS Premium Multiples Over Growth
SaaS valuations aren’t random — they cluster around growth + profitability Forward EV/Gross Profit vs NTM growth shows: • Higher growth → higher multiples (expected) • But operating margin is the real filter • Profitable names (green) consistently trade at premium $NET — 48x EV/GP...
Turn Income Into Active Rentals, Escape Tax Penalties
Most high earners think they have a tax problem. They actually have a strategy problem. The tax code does not punish you for earning a lot. It punishes you for earning a lot and doing nothing with it. The moment you buy a cash-flowing...
Middle East Conflict Still Drives Markets, WTI Near $112
Week Ahead: Its Still Mostly about the War: The Middle East war remains the dominant fundamental condition. There continues to be some indication that market participants are hopeful of a resolution soon. The May WTI contract settled near $111.55 last…...
Canada Seeks to Grow Financial Services in China
1/12 Bloomberg: "Canada pitched expanding its financial services presence in the Chinese market as the northern nation aims to increase exports to its second-largest trading partner in a push to diversify from the US." https://t.co/MifJtmoDWc
Time Wins: Markets Rise After Every Bear
Stick to long term plans. $spx monthly flows win. 529 plans can pay for college Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down." This chart proves it beyond any doubt. S&P 500. Every bull and bear market since 1949. Bull markets: → Average...
Iran's Conventional Strength Forces Global Trade Reset
I wrote this at the beginning of the war. I don't like to predict things, but it appears that the initial probabilities I'd spoken of have kinda sorta come about. The war will continue, but now there is an attempt...
China’s Urban Rail Investment Slumps 34% in 2026
1/4 Caixin: "Investment in China’s urban rail networks is set to plunge nearly 34% in 2026, the fifth consecutive year of declining capital expenditure, as local governments struggle with mounting operating losses and tighter project-approval requirements." https://t.co/s0B8GEvatW
Turkey's Gold Reserves Fall to Defend Lira Peg
There's 3 central banks that publish weekly data on FX reserves and gold holdings: India, Thailand and Turkey. Only Turkey has seen a sustained drop in gold holdings (blue) that have been used to lift FX reserves and defend the...
Live: Oil Prices, Weak Dollar, Central Bank Gold Sales
I'm doing a livestream this morning at 9 am (ET) to talk through: (i) the different oil prices floating around and how they all fit together; (ii) how the Dollar is trading weak, with yesterday's payrolls another example; (iii) central...
Global Markets Eye War, CPI Data, and RBI Caps
Week Ahead: Still mostly about the war. US and China report March CPI. China's PPI may have emerged from deflation. Canada reports March jobs data. RBI is relying on cap controls to support INR, not...
Copper's Resilience Signals Structural Demand, Build Positions Now
The remarkable resilience of copper prices given what we’re seeing across markets cannot be ignored. It’s striking how the metal is evolving from a traditional cyclical gauge of economic activity to one increasingly driven by structural demand and a tightening supply...
Market Near Bottom: Death Cross, Only 27% Above 50‑Day Avg
S&P down 7-8% from the January high. We touched -10% on March 27th and bounced. NASDAQ death cross confirmed. Only 27.6% of stocks above their 50-day average. We're in Scenario A. For now. https://open.substack.com/pub/dralexkoh/p/is-the-market-bottomed-in