Nike Shares Dip Despite Beating Earnings Estimates
.@Nike is running low today even after jumping over the analyst estimates on top line and bottom line. #PunsIntended https://t.co/Kd0tq71cgi
S&P 500 Approaches
Well, the S&P 500 came within 1% of the 38.2% Fibo.. More from me on @stockcharts... https://t.co/qdLp18p3Jz https://t.co/ZHuf3ajHqq
S&P Barely Down 4% Despite Multiple Crises
The S&P is down less than 4% in 2026. This is despite a war, an oil spike, extreme levels of anxiety about AI disrupting every industry on earth, rising interest rates, private credit worries, and big tech companies moving either...
Trump Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez
President Trump removes Delcy Rodriguez, the head of the Venezuelan government, from the U.S. sanctions list https://t.co/TUZyRVdQUV
NVIDIA's CUDA Lock‑in Faces Erosion, Ending Its Edge
Right now, NVIDIA is the only company here that has a network effect (due to CUDA lock-in). That seems likely to change over the next 1-2 years, as CUDA lock-in erodes, reducing NVIDIA's margins. It may be that eventually none...
Bottoms Form When Everyone Dismisses Below 200‑DMA
Market bottoms tend to occur when everyone starts telling you that nothing good happens below the 200dma $STUDY $SPX https://t.co/Nx5cZTCFrv
Office Availability Drops 12.6M Sq Ft Across Top Markets
The Office Market is Healing New York was just the beginning. Office market tightening is now sweeping through San Francisco, Houston, and Boston as availability declines. Q1 2026: All top 15 office markets saw declines in availability totaling 12.6M sq. ft New York...
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across EUR, JPY, AUD
Interesting FX Option Expirations Tomorrow 1.4 bln euros at $1.1650 $1.7 bln JPY159 and $1.5 bln at JPY160 A$1.14 bln at $0.6900.
Iran Sees Conflict as Chance to Expel US Influence
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's position in the war: "Iran is seeing these events... as an opportunity to change the whole geopolitics of West Asia. To invert it completely, to remove the US... and its whole infrastructure of finance...
LLY Breaks Out: Potential Bottom or Dead‑Cat Bounce?
$LLY great move from support to resistance. Many charts like this -- if this was dead cat bounce, it's almost over. If it's real bottom on fundamental shift on ending war, then real work begins by grinding thru...
Green S&P Sectors Led by XLI
current S&P sectors of the 11 9 are green lead by $XLI $XLK and $XLB
Tax Attorney Secures AI Startup Deal via QSBS Strategy
Today I spoke with two founders who launched an AI powered consulting business that builds industry adjacent applications and software. Q1 Revenue: $300K Why did they want to speak with me? I am a tax attorney and they were referred...
Crucial Final Half‑hour After SPY Rally, Retreat
Feels like an important final half hour here.. given yesterday's rally and this afternoon's retreat $SPY @stockcharts https://t.co/87IFBBks6S
Markets Already Factored In Trump’s 9 PM Speech
Trump speaks at 9PM. SPX +3%, VIX near lows, oil <100… What’s already priced in?
Renewables Cut Electricity Prices; Fossils Drive Them Up
Which lowers electricity prices, more renewables or more fossil fuels? More wind, solar, geothermal & hydro correlate with lower electricity prices worldwide and across the 50 states. More fossils, nuclear & biomass all independently correlate with higher prices. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yI9vlrRSc7w
Brent Slides Despite PMs' “Batten Down” Warnings
Why is front month Brent oil down on the day both Australian and UK prime ministers gave 'batten down the hatches' addresses to their nations?
OCIC Drops 5.2% Ahead of Outflow Reveal
With @GZuckerman on the edge of his seat waiting for @BlueOwlCapital’s Q1 outflow numbers for OCIC, it’s interesting that today the stock is down 5.2%, or 4% more than peers. One would think plenty of employees already know the number.
Silver Futures Contango Widening Resurfaces
The spread is waking up again Renewed widening in the contango between #SHFE Silver Futures and #SGE
Bullish March 2027 Short Straddles Gain Traction
Directional (bullish) Mar. 2027 short straddles been an interesting new strategy to emerge in several key names the past week into the correction
Growth Stocks Lag as NDX Hits Resistance, Breadth Weak
A number of growth stocks not participating in today's Day 2 short-covering rally in the indices. Normally, breadth is very strong at the start of a durable advance. $NDX $QQQ now bumping against overhead resistance (November-low), next few days will...
Three Levers to Financial Success, Not Just One
There are three levers for best financial outcomes and most firms only focus on one. 1. Consulting: Increase income and compensation negotiation. For business it’s growing properly. 2. Tax planning: keeping more of that increased income and structuring tax efficient exits. 3....
Use 65‑Minute Basing to Unwind Intraday Signals
$GOOGL 65 min. Why 65min? 6 equal periods in a trading day. If you use the H1 or the 60 min there are 7 candles one is a 30 min and the rest are 60 min in each...
Trump’s Slip Could Derail Xi Meeting’s Trade Agenda
How will Trump’s “mistake” affect his meeting with Xi? What does it mean to the agenda, expectations, and outcomes? Starting with trade, supply chains, and logistics. Taiwan?
Profiting without Catching Day‑1 Oversold Bounce
you don't have to catch an oversold bounce on Day 1 to do very well. i highlighted $MU in the pre-market meeting because it had only bounced $30 after a quick $160 decline. it was #1 long on desk today and more...
Markets Dump on Return to Crime Scene
They dumped it right at a return to the scene of the crime...markets are so damn mechanical https://t.co/ScXAyQhxMF
GOOGL Daily Chart Updated: 65‑Minute Outlook Preview
$GOOGL daily chart updated. The 65 min with some education and what I see coming next. https://t.co/QSkUPVCFqw
Economist Warns: War's Hidden Costs Outweigh Oil Prices
Yes, I'm an economist. And yes, I'll talk about oil and gas prices. But still, I wonder whether (and why) we're avoiding talking about the bigger costs of war.
S&P Forward P/E 19.2x; 8 Cheap Growth Stocks
The Forward P/E for the S&P 500 is now sitting at just 19.2x. 🧵Here are 8 stocks trading even lower with double digit earnings growth:
Apple’s AI Future Unlocks Upside for Investors
Happy Birthday $AAPL. After 50 years of thinking different, I believe that Apple’s most profound feature is still in the making: personalized AI. Apple + AI remains appears to be one of the most underappreciated opportunities in tech. Glad to be an...
Portable Alpha Gains Momentum Amid Liquidity Challenges
State of the Portable Alpha Landscape I sit down with Shane McCarthy of LAB Quantitative Strategies for a deep dive into the portable alpha and return stacking landscape, including fresh survey data on how allocators are approaching this space today. 00:00 Welcome...
Learn From Hormuz Crisis: Rethink Gas Export Strategies
The reshuffling of gas and LNG exports as the Hormuz crisis move to its second month is an experience that we need to learn form.
Soybean Bears Face Disappointing Day as Bull Spreads Flip
This is turning out to be a very disappointing day for the bears in the #soybeans. Bull spreads have even turned.
IWM Puts Cheap—Sell Now for Pre‑weekend Hedge
Near dated $IWM puts are way too cheap given my view of the probability distribution of outcomes over the next week. At a minimum you can probably monetize them tomorrow into pre-weekend hedging if you don't want to own them...
CAT Poised for Breakout After Reclaiming Key Levels
$CAT gap-up and go? Previously one of the strongest name on the market before the recent correction. Stock reclaimed key levels this week. Watch for a breakout towards 1,000!
Beijing’s 2002 Strategy Exploited US’s War on Terror
Left: "Much of Beijing's current strategy toward the US was laid down in 2002, when the CCP concluded China faced an unprecedented 20-year 'period of strategic opportunity' [due to] the GWOT distracting US leaders." Right: Cover of this week's The Economist...
March Hurts Long‑short Equity; April Rebounds Sharply
March was a challenging month for long short equity hedge funds as junk stock shorts materially outperformed (+7bps on the month). The GS VIP Long vs GS Most Shorted basket fell -7.6%, dropping its YTD performance to -14.4%. That said, April is...
Yuan Replaces Dollars for Iran Strait Transit, Signaling Currency Clash
Ships paying Iran for transit thru the Strait. In yuan. Not dollars. An indicator of a coming currency battle? And roiling supply chains and maritime?
Asia’s Coal Resurgence Driven by Gas Shortages and Geopolitics
Asia is being FORCED BACK TO COAL to keep the lights on. Gas shortages are leaving countries with no other alternatives. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/h4FiiSWzHr
Banks Play IPO Auditions as OpenAI Valuation Soars
"Don Corleone, I am honored and grateful that you have invited me to your daughter's wedding. And I pledge my ever-ending loyalty." — Luca Brasi The big story beneath the story of OpenAI's $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation is...
SpaceX IPO Defies $1B Revenue Ceiling, Aims Massive Scale
Pretty momentous day when SpaceX files for possibly the largest IPO ever. I remember when VC colleagues used to say this company had stalled at $1B or so of revenues, and that a space taxi company could only be *this* big,...
Earnings Estimates Surge 19% Amid 9% Market Drop
For me the most interesting thing last week was that earnings estimates not only held up despite the turmoil, but accelerated higher. The 52-week rate of change for the 12-month forward EPS estimate is now up to 19% despite the...
Quarter to $100K Lifetime Option Earnings, Top Tickers Revealed
Quarter way of $100,000 in lifetime option earnings. This year has been slower in option income due to some assignments. But we live and we learn everyday. Top 3 income tickers: 1. $SOXL - $2703 2. $HIMZ - $2360 3. $OSCR -...
Buy Gold Pullbacks on Upward‑Sloping 40‑Week Trend
Gold with a picture perfect pullback to the upward sloping 40-week (approximately 200-day MA). One thing about bull markets, you want to buy the 😱pullbacks. https://t.co/dxUq52rzEQ
Monitor Options Activity to Spot Market Manipulation
watch the options activity ahead of this to see how they think they can manipulate us and our markets
QQQ Chart Signals Bull Appetite Litmus Test
$QQQ 590 chart @MarketSurge #IBDpartner will be real litmus test of bull appetite as supply hits https://t.co/3YeTTRQAQh
Aluminum Supply Hit; KALU, Kaiser Set for Breakouts
$KALU Daily. Clean, multi-year breakouts for aluminum plays $AA $CENX today. Kaiser is a "catch-up" long idea. Plenty of aluminum supply destroyed in Middle East. https://t.co/zyVemyS1cJ
Markets Await Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
EU Defense Small Caps Poised for Decade-Long Gains
Interesting to see recently listed EU defense small caps Gabler $X4K and Vincorion $V1NC not participating in the recent sector rally. On the other hand, nobody knows them yet. Both rapidly growing, profitable, good b/s, decent valuations. Doesn't matter whether Trump will exit...
Toll on Hormuz Likely Raises Prices, Cuts Exporter Profits
Question for incidence-knowers: If post ante regime is one where ships can transit Hormuz as long as they pay a toll, will the end result be --higher prices for final consumers --lower profits for non-Iranian Gulf exporters --rough mix (any split within 1/3-2/3 of...
Nvidia's Valuation Outstrips GDP of Most Nations
Nvidia's stock market valuation has now exceeded the GDP of all but 5 countries on Earth? That single company's AI chip dominance is worth more than the annual economy of France, Canada, or Italy. We're witnessing wealth creation at a...