Qatar's $600B Surplus Faces First Deficit in Decade
Qatar's accumulated current account surplus (which excludes capital gains on the QIA's investments) over the last 40ys is USD 600b give or take Qatar can afford a few months of deficits . But it still hurts https://t.co/zcG5etAkVY
Promote Your Book or It Stays Invisible
To sell books you will need to engage with your communities of interest and try to create some word of mouth sales. "Writing a book without promoting it is like waving to someone in a dark room. You know what have...
B+ Growth Masks Recession-Scale Deficit Mismatch
A B+ economy with a recession-sized deficit is like showing up to a Sunday barbecue in full scuba gear. Technically you’re dressed, but something doesn't add up. https://t.co/3BmlhUlHQr
High‑volatility, Uncorrelated Assets Boost Capital Efficiency
Most allocators miss this, because it’s counterintuitive, but a high volatility uncorrelated asset is more useful than a low vol one because it is more capital efficient (assuming expected returns are positive). So yes, this return stream could be useful in...
Retention, Not Traffic, Drives Million‑Dollar Brand Growth
Many $1M+ brands mistake revenue for scale. (D2C Skincare Brand) $1.5M/month… growth flat, repeat sales weakening. More traffic wasn’t the answer. Retention was. We rebuilt LTV systems → $2.2M/month.
UAE Central Bank’s Cash‑Equivalents Share of Reserves Fell
Alex hasn't quite internalized how bad my eyes are and how much I need BIG FONTS ... but this is super interesting -- the UAE has a ton of cash equivalents on its central bank balance sheet (the various bars). ...
Amazon's NBA Glitches Offset by Triple Multiview Feature
Amazon has had its share of issues with the NBA this year but I do love that they have a triple multiview option for tonight’s games.
Unstructured Data Security Hindered by Visibility Gaps
One of the biggest security challenges with unstructured data is the lack of visibility and lineage as information moves across systems, clouds, and teams." #DataLineage #AI https://t.co/PYomJYHDkY
Leaving a Toxic Boss Reveals You're Not the Problem
A toxic boss will make you feel like you’re the problem… until you leave and realize you never were.
Meta Turns Employee Activity Into AI Training Data
I talked with Meta employees about the company's move to track their computer use and turn them into training data. Is this the future of knowledge work? https://www.platformer.news/meta-mci-monitoring-layoffs-knowledge-work/
Apple's Future Under Ternus Won’t Be Just Hardware
I just published today’s Above Avalon Daily email. It took longer than expected to write, but I think it fully explains my view on where Apple stands and what things may look like with John Ternus as CEO. Much of what...
Tooze and IMF Overlook Exchange Rates in Imbalance Analysis
I cannot criticise Tooze for leaving out the exchange rate as a central variable when the IMF (... the IMF ... lest we forget, whose mandate is around exchange rates and the balance of payments) also left the exchange rate...
Banks Fill Private Credit Gap as Loans Surge 7.4%
Commercial and industrial loans made by banks are up 7.4% year-over-year, the biggest jump in three years: @PantheonMacro While this can indicate a pickup in capex spending, this time it shows how banks are taking the place of private credit...
One‑shot AI App Creation Is a Myth
The idea of "one shotting" an app using AI is a fugazi. If you had to describe my app and all the edge cases I have solved over the years, it would be a prompt the size of a small book,...
Congress' Massive Export Crackdown Fails to Shield US Chips
Tech war: US Congress rolls out ‘largest’ export control upgrade against China Let's be clear, this does nothing to "protect" the US semiconductor industry.. https://t.co/ic51dxC2bF
WGA Warns Warner‑Paramount Merger Would Be Disastrous
WGA statement on Warner shareholders approving Paramount deal: The proposed merger of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery would be a disaster for writers, the entertainment industry, consumers, and the country. While shareholders approved this deal today, this merger is far from...
Politics and Visibility Outrun Competence in Career Speed
A lot of people get frustrated watching less capable people move faster, but that is what happens when relationships, visibility, and politics matter as much as competence.
Adobe's Real AI Strategy Defies Market Skepticism
.@Adobe Summit 2026: Liz Miller Calls Out the Market on AI Strategy – and She’s Not Holding Back https://t.co/bbXv2HFi9W @cxtodaynews “When financial markets say Adobe doesn’t have an AI strategy, my answer is: you haven’t been paying attention. An AI...
Sustained High ROIC Defies Mean Reversion, Needs Complex Valuation
Michael Mauboussin on fade rates "ROICs regress toward the mean as the result of competition, changing market conditions, and luck. But there is a substantial body of research that shows some companies produce high ROICs for sustained periods, often measured in decades. This...
Trump’s Trade Policies Spark Heightened Commodity Demand
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why commodities are HOT: "Trump's tariffs and sanctions have disrupted the global movement of goods. There is risk and uncertainty as to what Trump will do next, and that increases a precautionary demand for commodities of...
Only 31% Chance of US‑Iran Peace Deal by May
According to @Polymarket, there is only a 31% chance of a US–Iran permanent peace deal by the end of May. TRUMP = FOREVER WAR = ANTI-MAGA. https://t.co/yzmYFnG1W9
Identify Your Leadership Path Before the Career Fork
At a certain point in a science or tech career, the path splits: lead the technical decisions or lead the people and organizational ones. Knowing which side you belong on before you're forced to choose is a real advantage.
Quantifying Brand Trust with AI Agents
How do you measure the “trust” and “credibility” of your brand with an LLM or AI Agent? https://t.co/YV3RT3pqcl @DLAIgnite #SocialSelling #DigitalSelling #Leadership #ArtificialIntelligence #AIAgents #AI #FutureOfWork #Strategy #Marketing #MarketingSuccess #MarketingStrategy #Branding
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
PE Interviews Demand Impossible LBO Modeling From Rookies
we need to broadcast PE associate interviews this way… like imagine David Sambur screaming at a first-year GS analyst demanding an LBO model with multiple cash sweeps, IPO and M&A exit toggles, etc.
Airline Mergers Stumble: From People Express to Spirit‑JetBlue
Just factually speaking People Express went out of business in 1986 and the Spirit-JetBlue merger was rejected in 2024 under the Biden Administration’s DOJ. https://t.co/v0tu3Hkd46
Betting Markets Predict Trump Will Acquire Spirit Airlines
Trump Says “I Think We Just Buy” Spirit Airlines — Here's What Betting Markets Expect - View from the Wing https://t.co/JpaaYmnOjS
SVB Rebrand Risks Losing Loyal Customers and Mission
Call me old school, but I'm not thrilled about the rebrand of SVB>>First Citizens. I know the *why*, but pretty sure that severing that connection to the past and the history of Silicon Valley is going to cause customer flight....
Voters Must Judge $1,700 Household Stadium Subsidy
An objection I'm hearing is that this deal is about more than economic return (though that's the chief booster talking point). So, let's vote on it. $1 billion subsidy spread across 585K Hillsborough Co households is $1,700 per HH. Let's...
Money Supply Growth Hits 3.5%, Far Below Historic Median
The collective money supply growth rate across the US, Japan and Eurozone is 3.5%, lower than 83% of all readings since 1997. The median is 4.9%. I don't want to minimize Hormuz, but as far as this chart is concerned,...
CAR‑T Turnaround: Kelonia’s LLY Deal Signals New Pharma Play
A VERY SPIRITED interview w/ Venrock VC Bryan Roberts re: Kelonia Therapeutics and its $LLY deal on this week's Readout LOUD podcast. A CAR-T biotech’s dramatic turnaround, and drugmakers’ tactics to drive more scripts https://t.co/600DsE1cBm via @statnews
Companies Prefer Backend‑Forward Developers Over 50/50 Full‑Stack
Most full stack roles aren't asking for a 50/50 split. A 70/30 backend-forward developer who builds with the frontend team in mind is exactly what a lot of companies actually need. Frame it that way.
From $50 Slack to $15M: Build Your First Digital Product
Ship 30 began as $50 for a Slack channel—and I refunded my first 60 customers. But since then, I've generated $15,000,000 with digital products. And on April 27th, I'm launching a bootcamp to help you build your first digital product. Hop aboard here:...
AI Cameras Become Essential for Modern Office Efficiency
Smart office tech is no longer a luxury. AI cameras and real-time intelligence are becoming a business imperative for better meetings and employee experiences. #FutureOfWork #CIO https://t.co/rNDUA2uhNx
Meta's Layoff Notice May Trigger Mass Job Searches
"Meta will notify employees who are being laid off on May 20..." Seems like that risks encouraging 1000s more employees than you intend to lay off to look for a new job https://t.co/kmiK5Q2kQ6
SaaS Brands Must Win Niche Creator Trust for AI Search
SaaS brands are about to compete for creator partnerships in a way I don’t think they’re fully aware of just yet. Lots of leverage in the hands of people with niche subject matter expertise owning their topics. Trust comes from...
Public Photos Fuel Potential Character Assassination of Patriots Coach
With basically everyone a potential photographer these days, and with Mike Vrabel being super recognizable & not exactly hiding while in public places, makes you wonder how many photos there may be. And those in possession of them could sell...
Private Credit Differs Yet Echoes 2008 Shadow Banking Risks
Two things can be true at once: private credit isn't identical to 2008-era shadow banking, and some of the same vulnerabilities may be creeping back. Similar enough to inspect closely.
Private Credit Masks Volatility, Echoes 2008 Shadow Banking
Private credit may hide volatility, but hiding it doesn't make it disappear. We learned that lesson with shadow banks in 2008. Is private credit just shadow banking with a new name? Partly yes, partly no. The honest answer is rarely...
Wisconsin Sues Major Prediction Markets over Illegal Sports Betting
NEW: The Wisconsin Department of Justice has sued prediction market platforms Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket and https://t.co/jeBmEO492C in state court over alleged illegal sports betting, seeks preliminary and permanent injunctive relief to halt sports-event contracts. https://t.co/MxLvGJoq4c
Only Green/Yellow Status Hides Risks; Need Transparency
Status reports showing only green and yellow? If there's no red or detailed risk mitigation, something's being hidden or overlooked. Transparency is key for project success. Executive teams need to know the risks to provide support. #ProjectManagement #Transparency https://t.co/Q5YAwF8kkg
Leaders Decide; Evidence Is Insight, Not Action
Stop asking insights to do the work of leaders. Evidence informs. Leaders decide. Organizations move or stall based on whether those roles are clear and enforced. Insight is evidence. Evidence demands interpretation. Interpretation demands decision. https://t.co/sQqOka4PcI https://t.co/qTcZsruswN
Turn a Layoff Into Startup Success and Happiness
If you’re laid off, create or join a startup — that’s the best path to unlimited upside and happiness https://t.co/VbsStEV0EN
Ari Emanuel's 2025 CEO Pay Soars to $67.4M
Ari Emanuel’s Pay Package as CEO of TKO Group Jumps to $67.4 Million in 2025 https://t.co/WHbgJ250rc
Most Leaders See AI Job Shift, Few Workforce Ready
87% of business leaders expect AI to reshape jobs within a year, yet only 29% believe their workforce is ready. https://t.co/2JDkhLaW2e #sustainability #AI #5G #cloud #edge #futureofwork #digitaltransformation #futureofwork @Kyndryl @WayneState https://t.co/QceC7obzhz
Explore Healthcare Benefits Insights in Podcast Transcript
If you care about HC benefits, read the transcript. Listen to the Pod It’s good https://lnkd.in/gfE2wJwz
Two Developers Outpace OpenAI on Product Hunt
Nothing to see here. Just 2 guys who built an app in 10 days casually beating multi-billion dollar @OpenAI on Producthunt. https://t.co/5eFwHLAlpC
Intel's Forward PE Skyrockets Compared to Nvidia, AMD
$NVDA at ~20x forward PE $AMD at ~40x forward PE $INTC at ~100x forward PE Makes perfect sense. 😅
USVC to Open Global Investing, Waitlist Now
The biggest "feature request" we have had so far for our public venture fund, USVC: How to invest if you don't already live in America While we cannot support this yet, we hope to roll this out very soon in the coming...
Replit Thrives After Swapping SF for Spacious Foster City
Two years since Replit left SF. 10x valuation and 200x ARR later we’ve taken over much of the old IBM campus in Foster City and we’re still expanding. There’s something poetic about it: IBM helped create the industry. We’re helping reinvent how...