You Can Learn to Fly Without Crashing, Build Without VC
You don't need to crash a plane to learn to fly ... and you don't need VC to build a business.
Finish Small Tasks Inst
Small tasks piling up? Try the 2-Minute Rule: If a task takes less than 2 minutes, do it immediately
Embrace Silence; Let Buyers Reveal Their True Needs
The most underused weapon in sales: Silence. After asking a powerful question most sellers rush to fill the silence. Don't. Sit in the discomfort. The buyer will fill it. And what they say in those uncomfortable seconds is almost always the most valuable thing they share...
Equity Risk Premium Near 4% Validates Current Valuations
With credit spreads still well-behaved and operating margins making new highs by the week, the valuation picture for US stocks remains justified, especially after the drawdown of the past few weeks. The chart below shows that the “fitted” equity risk...
AI Agent Costs Are Turning Into Enterprise Payroll
Your AI tool costs went from $20/mo to potentially $500K/quarter. And most companies haven't updated their budgets yet. Here's why AI agent billing is the next enterprise crisis 🧵👇 1/ A year ago: AI = autocomplete. Quick prompts, quick answers, flat subscription. Budgetable. Today:...
Ownership Mindset Demands Equity, Not Extra Hours
A Gen Z employee working at a start-up logged off at 7:00 PM every day. The founder was not happy with this. He spoke to the employee and said, "You need to move beyond the 9–5 mindset. You should think like an owner and...
Small Firms Must Invest Like Giants to Survive
A few years ago I would have told you that a small scrappy company had a big advantage. I've since changed my mind and I understand the big advantages that larger companies have. Once you get a machine rolling down...
Reducing East Asia Surplus Key to Global Economic Balance
Global adjustment really does hinge on bringing down East Asia's surplus -- and of course also brining down the deficit of the US and the UK The second China shock already solved for Germany's surplus https://t.co/CQ5w2tBmTD
Inflation Already Embedded, Set to Accelerate Post‑War
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how inflation was ALREADY BAKED INTO THE CAKE: “Inflation was accelerating before the war, and it will keep accelerating after the war’s over and oil prices fall.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
Strait of Hormuz Reopens—Durability and Ship Commitment Key
The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is undoubtedly a welcome relief for the global economy. Needless to say, its true impact depends on the durability of this reopening, which will require sustained confidence-building measures from all three...
Distribution Is Just Sales in a Different Voice
Distribution and sales are not different departments. They're the same conversation at different distances. Every piece of content is either moving someone toward a decision or away from one. There's no neutral. The cold emails that get replies don't sound like cold emails. The content...
Management Executes; Leadership Chooses the Right Path
“Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.” ― Peter F. Drucker
Ericsson CEO: North America’s Mix Importance Will Decline
"While I think North America will always be important, from a mix point of view it will be less important going forward," said Börje Ekholm, Ericsson's CEO https://t.co/x7vq53PjRy via @iainwmorris
Six‑Month Iran Deal Raises Strait‑of‑Hormuz Uncertainty
Europe and Gulf leaders thin six months for Iran war deal. If so, will the Strait stay open? For all?
Judge Rejects Claim CFTC Sole Authority over Sports Contracts
PM Lawyer: “Whether 40.11 bans sports event contracts is a matter for the CFTC to address, not a matter for Nevada to address.” Judge Nelson: “That can’t be a serious argument. It’s self-certification. You can put up anything you want.” Via @Dan_O_Boyle https://t.co/HrzTVlnaJ9
Hormuz Reopens, Markets Surge as Oil Plummets
STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN. WAR IS OVER?! Iran reopens the Strait. Oil down -13% $SPX at record highs. $NDX logs its longest win streak since 2009. Dollar easing, gold and $BTC ripping The single biggest lock on markets just cleared. US-Iran...
Observations Reveal Uncomfortable Truths in Challenging Times
I will start off by wishing you well in these challenging times and by saying that the picture I paint in the following observations is not the picture I wish to be true; it is the picture that I believe...
CFP's Logo Tweak: Barely Noticeable, yet Intentional
Takes subtle to a new level 👇 Why the College Football Playoff Decided to (Barely) Change Its Logo https://t.co/gYv2sWPIRp via @sportico @DanielLibit
Podcast Appearance Urges Urgent Debate on Fixing Imbalances
Thanks Michael -- I hope my appearance on the podcast of the great @SoumayaKeynes puts some urgency back into the debate over how to fix imbalances --
AI Defies Disruption Theory: Startups Must Rethink Strategy
Disruption Theory's been a staple of startup strategy, but it does not apply to AI. Incumbents do not regard AI as “just a toy,” and are not waiting around while startups to disrupt them. So, startups need a new strategy. https://t.co/9zku0mmxLZ
Gulf Oil Loss Hits Half‑billion Barrels, 900M‑barrel Cost
As of today, just more than a half billion barrels of oil that were supposed to be produced in the Gulf this year have not been thanks to the closure of Hormuz and forced shut-ins. Using the optimistic assumption that Hormuz...
Leadership Must Evolve Amid Ongoing Human‑AI Work Redistribution
Existing firms, especially those not yet digital-first in any deep sense, will not simply install autonomy as though it were an upgrade to a software package. They will have to live through a prolonged re-distribution of work between humans and...
Tin Prices Surge, Prompting Barons to Eye Cash Flow
If the Strait is open does that mean the tin barons can chill on studying East African diesel logistics and inventories and just stare at the simple cash flow model at these tin prices for AlphaMoon $AFM.V and smile? Asking for...
Google's Dan Taylor on AI Mode & Evolving Marketing Measurement
In this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast, I speak with Google’s Dan Taylor about AI Overviews, AI Mode, the evolution of marketing measurement as platforms like PMax have gained a greater share of spend, Google’s UCP protocol,...
Accelerators Often Not Worth It; Consider Before Joining
I went thru an equity + capital focused accelerator and frankly, I’d advise most people not to do it. If you think an accelerator is a good fit for you , happy to answer questions from my perspective.
Saudi Arabia Accelerates Sports Investments, Sells Al Hilal
Saudi Arabia doubles down on its sport ecosystem development as asset disposals commence Al Hilal has been sold, LIV Golf could be next, will Newcastle United follow? https://t.co/D7nWjAQ9l9 @Fire_and_Skill #Geosport https://t.co/EuFvnPPD0q
Netflix's TikTok‑style Feed to Boost Engagement and Ads
All the $NFLX bears are not pricing in a addictive TikTok-style video feed coming out at the end of April. This means doomscrolling clips from shows, movies & video podcasts. How it benefits Netflix: • ad revenue (big one )...
Achane Poised for $59M, Four‑year Extension
Coming off of a career year (1,838 scrimmage yards, 12 TDs) and entering a contract season, #Dolphins RB Devon Achane currently projects toward a 4 year, $59M extension according to Spotrac's model. https://t.co/FCnmzzKA0s
Private Equity's College Sports Deal: Profit Mystery, Not Hype
blogged about the learfield sale, which I don't think warrants a OH MY GOD PRIVATE EQUITY IS COMING TO COLLEGE SPORTS type reaction but I do kinda wonder how this becomes profitable for everybody https://t.co/q2bQ1lNVca
Oil Prices Plunge 9% After Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices tumble more than 9% as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open: CNBC https://t.co/mYD8fplFVa
Bet365 Expands to Michigan, Now Active in 17 States
With today's bet365 sports betting launch in Michigan, the book is live in 17 states: Arizona Colorado Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Michigan Missouri New Jersey North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Tennessee Virginia
Germany's Trade Deficit Deepens, Hurting Growth
Hello from Germany, where foreign trade remains a drag on growth, w/the trade balance with both China and the US continuing to worsen. https://t.co/q2j2YDHBdM
Analyzing Crisis Outlook,
The world's greatest macro podcast is back. This week: 1) Is the market right to look through this entire crisis? 2) What are the longer-term implications? 3) What do central banks do next?
Diversify Globally for Outsized Returns Beyond the US
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 15 months later: South Korea +179%, Peru +121%, Poland +98% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/FgV3vruQ0G
NorthStar E&S Targets $300M Valuation in SPAC IPO
Space-based space situational awareness co @NorthStarEandS to IPO on @NYSE via merger with SPAC #VikingAcquisition. Minimum gross proceeds of $30M, pre-money valuation $300M. @SpireGlobal @LuxSpaceAgency @CartesianCap. https://t.co/coJbF6PboG https://t.co/leePWtbfAm
US Offers $20 B to Iran for Uranium Surrender
FinancialJuice @financialjuice · 5m https://t.co/jyvyxdXqey US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of...
AI Empowers Financial Advisors, Not Replaces Them
Why ChatGPT Is No Threat To Real Advisors: The most likely legacy of ChatGPT and AI for financial planning is not to replace financial advisors, but to help them increase their productivity by streamlining more of the middle and back...
Influence Is Everywhere, Yet Brands Can Still Connect
Brands are competing for influence. At Marketecture Live, Joanna O'Connell, Chief Intelligence Officer, @OmnicomMediaGrp , broke down how consumer decision-making has fundamentally changed: - Influence now comes from everywhere: friends, creators, AI, communities - Trust is shifting away from institutions toward people and...
From Speaking to Advisory: Prioritizing High‑Value, Low‑Volume Business
I rarely do this, but I thought I’d try a short business update and share what’s working, etc. For the last 3 years, I’ve rebuilt my business from a road-heavy speaking business (which was the largest thing I’d ever built...
Netflix Slides 8% as Hastings Exits, Growth Doubts Rise
$NFLX dropped 8% after hours: Reed Hastings announced his departure. Guidance disappointed. When the architect of a business exits at all-time market highs, the market asks — is the easy growth behind us? https://t.co/PEVEHLTezO
Meta Editor Auto‑adds Related Media, Risk Unintended Publishing
Meta media buyers, LOOK OUT 👀 If you go to EDIT an ad, even just to look at an ad's setting without changing anything, the system automatically adds Related Media. It won't publish automatically, buuuut, it will queue to publish the next...
Immersive Map View Videos Revolutionize Google Ads
If you focus on the ad side of Google, you should be following Anthony. Here's just another great find, which is super interesting. "Immersive map view videos in ads".
Shift to a Career, Then Launch a $40k Side Hustle
I escaped Wall Street when my little side hustle reached $40k/month. Here's how you can do the same: First, there are 3 ways to earn money in the world. 1. Jobs A job is where you trade dollars for hours. For example, you're a Starbucks...
Simple Spreadsheet Turns $600K Biz Into Scalable Growth
My digital business generates $600K/month. And I run it with this simple spreadsheet: It takes me less than 10 minutes per week to fill out. But in my first 3 years of business? I made EVERY decision based on "vibes." This works for a while. But...
Use Cash Flow Forecasts, Not Past P&L, for Future Decisions
Here's the question I want you to ask about your financials. Can you actually make next month's decisions from them? Your P&L and statement of cash flows both look backward by design. They tell you what already happened last period. For next...
Netflix Q1 Solid, Stock Dip Overreacts to News
My Thoughts on $NFLX The Q1 results are generally solid, although revenue growth has slightly slowed to +16.2%, which is still a strong growth rate. The stock dropped 9.6% after the earnings report, and in my view, this is an overreaction...
Exploring Economic Forces in Planet Money’s New Book
NEW ODD LOTS - THE PLANET MONEY/ODD LOTS CROSSOVER EPISODE @TheStalwart & I speak with @planetmoney's @mdc and contributor Alex Mayassi about their new book "Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life" https://t.co/no4aqQgefa
Validate Your Market Thesis Free with Kimi AI
Kimi AI can now pressure-test your market thesis like Chamath Palihapitiya picks his $1B bets (for free). Most founders think they have a big market. Almost none have actually stress-tested the TAM math. Here are 12 Kimi AI prompts that expose whether...
Closures to Save $233M, Yet $87M Maintenance Backlog
AAFC is projecting the closures will result in annual operational cost savings of $27 million within three years, and a total of $233 million in savings over the next decade. Affected sites also have around $87 million in backlogged maintenance requirements.
Building Community Over Numbers: Impact Beats Revenue
4 years working on Exit Five (the worst feature on LinkedIn is how anyone can spam DM me congrats on your work anniversary so I’ll see you next year) We will reach 12M marketers through our content this year. Two...