BA Wage Premium Plummeted During Pandemic, Rebounded by 2025
What's interesting is that if you align on experience [left], comparing entry level workers with a BA to younger non-BA workers with little/no experience, the BA wage premium was stable for decades then fell precipitously during the pandemic, only rising again in 2025. 1/2 https://t.co/v5mv8qYyxh
Quarter of Global LNG Supply Offline After Attacks, Cyclone
And just like that, a quarter of global LNG supply is offline 🚢 ⚠️ Hormuz/Iran attacks have disrupted deliveries from Qatar and UAE Cyclone temporarily knocks out plants in Western Australia (Nice graphic from IEA’s Greg Molnar) https://t.co/ymJmTrTZGx
Women-Led Panels Needed: The Rise of “Femanel”
For years, we’ve had “manels” (all-male panels) at medical conferences. Today at the @AmerGastroAssn Women in GI Conference: a full panel of women on leadership and career advancement. Turns out there’s a name for this: “femanel.” Whatever we call it, we need more...
Israel-Iran Strike Threatens Global Supply Chain Stability
Israel’s attack on Iran while there were attempts at “peace” negotiations may have compounded the supply chain and maritime problems that are bordering on supply and economic catastrophe. IMHO
Offer Fresh Insights, Not Louder or More Posts
The fix isn't posting more. The fix isn't shouting louder. The fix is having something different to say that your audience doesn’t know they need to hear.
Consumer Sentiment Hits Dec‑2025 Low Amid Gas, Market Turmoil
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
AI Halves Time-to-Value, Redefines Market Competition
Founders think they’re competing against other products. Most are actually competing against a shrinking clock. Every market has an expected Time to Value. And that expectation keeps compressing. I call this The Halving Principle™. The Halving Principle™ is the observation...
Qatar's Largest LNG Plant Offline, Losing 1.5 Mt Weekly
Reminder that the world’s biggest LNG plant in Qatar — which is currently offline — has no alternative route to get the gas to market It is stuck. And every week it’s offline, the world loses 1.5 million tons of LNG
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Culture Must Accelerate or Lag Behind AI
The AI age will not wait for legacy thinking. If your culture cannot move as fast as your technology, you will fall behind. https://t.co/OQtv0uANYA
Boost Revenue per Seller by Building Skill Capacity
We're past the growth-at-all-costs era. The new modern revenue leader's flex? Maximize revenue per seller. Not bloated headcount. Not massive but inefficient orgs. The highest-leverage lever to grow revenue per seller? Skill capacity. Your tech stack is full. Your skill stack is empty. Fix that.
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Turn Hidden Infrastructure Work Into Visible Value
When you've spent 80% of your time fixing invisible infrastructure bugs, while the dev who builds flashy UI buttons gets the Impact Award. HOW TO MAKE INVISIBLE WORK VISIBLE (AND GET PAID FOR IT):
Family Offices Can't Venture Alone, Need Partnerships
Can Family Offices Do Venture Alone? Friday's newsletter looked at VC and family offices Direct deals, fees, control, all things VC Airing the family laundry in public The seminal book on venture The best private banks in the world Our new...
AI Automation Risks: IP, Taxes, and Market Uncertainty
I can’t wait to read the Risks section of your IPO Prospectus and future SEC filings Risks: within the next 4 years we expect to completely recreate all processes and procedures in each organization to optimize the replacement of humans with...
Energy Crisis Deepens Strain on Emerging Economies
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
US/EU Push Permanent E‑commerce Exemption, Threatening Developing Nations
WTO e‑commerce moratorium may lapse: US/EU seek permanent exemption; some developing states oppose losing tariff revenue. Risk: higher digital trade costs, fragmentation. Trade: overweight big tech. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Close Incident Loops with Recap, Ownership, and Gratitude
After the crisis, close the loop with a short recap, clear owners and dates, lessons learned, and a thank you to the people who raised the bad news early. #ITSM #ITOps https://t.co/a4Q8PTsrKE
Higher Oil Fuels Dollar, Yields; Stocks
“complete loss of confidence” = USD crashes with stocks with bonds. My MONEY GOES HOME™️ warning. A slower crash is what we have now: Higher Oil -> Higher Dollar, Yields, USDJPY -< Lower Equities & Bonds
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Empowering Female Founders to Reach Seven‑Figure Success
Helping female founders grow to 7 figures and that’s the way I like it! 🎶✨
Simple Habits Let You Outwork 97% of People
Most people don't realize that being productive is f*cking easy. 1) Time block your day 2) Kill every distraction 3) Do your hardest task first Do this for 6 months and you'll outwork 97% of people.
Stop Waiting for Perfection; Start Building with Reasonable Bets
A lot of talented people get stuck because they keep waiting for perfect alignment before they move. Perfect title. Perfect timing. Perfect confidence. Perfect plan. Meanwhile the people passing them are just making reasonable bets and building as they go.
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Mining Metal Supply Crisis Needs More Than Prices
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Facebook Affiliate Program Launches with Amazon, Shopee, eBay Soon
Focus on affiliate marketing? I shared the other day about Facebook's new affiliate partnership program that was announced on 3/26. The launch partners are Amazon and Shopee. One piece I missed was that eBay will be included in the coming...
Great Stories Make Leaders, Managers, and Speakers More Effective
If you are a leader, manager, executive, sales professional, or keynote speaker, you are more effective when you tell great stories and use good examples. #salespresentations #businesspresentation #publicspeaking
Choosing Purpose Over Funding: Founder Aims $100M Exit
I jumped into the swamp of fundraising. I prepped so good that I had ~100 warm intros lined up ready to fire. And I decided it’s not what I want to do. Had a few calls to warm me up...
Deal's Allure Fades when You Crunch the Numbers
Why some business deals look amazing—until you do the math properly. https://t.co/1vSKngieRj #SmallBusiness & Deal Making #SMB https://t.co/wb8AmKBfnA
Keep Discovery Alive During Demos with Open‑Ended Questions
Most obvious learning, that I didn't realize my first year as an AE. DISCOVERY DOES NOT STOP during your demo. Demos aren’t your opportunity to put together the best show and tell and then get feedback at the end. It's about continuing the...
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
Larry Ellison's Net Worth Halves Amid Warner Bid
The collapse of Larry Ellison's net worth since the start of Warner bidding is something. It has fallen by more than half, and is down $60 billion this year alone. He's worth 'just' $188 billion. He's highly leveraged. https://t.co/NBLRzGFr91
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
YouTube CEO Vows to Curb AI Slop While Empowering Creators
YouTube's CEO about AI slop on the platform in a NYT video interview: Q: You’ve declared war on A.I. slop. But you are also handing creators tools to use A.I. How do you distinguish between a creative A.I....
Never Miss a Follow‑Up: Free All‑In‑One Application Tracker
The application tracker keeps every role, every follow-up, and every contact in one place. Stop losing jobs because you forgot to follow up. Free. → https://jupiterhr.myflodesk.com/applicationtracker
Secret Model Boosts Products, Triggers Unfair‑Fast Releases
ok, theory, a frontier model creator lands a real breakthrough, they won’t ship it to the public first - they’ll aim it inward. their own products get supercharged, & suddenly you see a flurry of releases in rapid succession that...
Writing Daily Turned My Wall Street Job Into 8‑Figure Business
One simple daily habit helped me: • Quit my Wall Street job • Become an entrepreneur • And build an 8-figure digital business The habit? Writing online. But when I first started out, I was a horrible writer. So I spent 1,000+ hours studying how to write...
9‑Step Checklist to Build Scalable Enterprise AI
AI Governance: The Hidden Infrastructure Behind Enterprise AI Success 9-point checklist leaders can use to begin building scalable AI governance https://t.co/qOnZQFry8w https://t.co/lADxvpSlE8
US Financial Markets Expose Vulnerability in Global Conflicts
The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private...
AI‑driven SaaS Valuations: NET Overpriced, ZETA Underval
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
LVMH Balances Cycles by Pairing Stable Spirits with Fashion
$LVMH laid out the strategy driving their acquisitions in 2002 Holding so many different luxury goods businesses would help to balance the cyclicality of each category. “Wines and spirits are stable businesses with long cycles” versus luxury fashion and ready-to-wear...
Use Sinking Funds in High‑Yield Accounts for Big Expenses
People always ask me how I plan for big expenses without blowing my budget. And my mentor taught me about sinking funds. Here’s how they work and why I keep mine in a high-yield savings account. 🧵
Windsor Slump Warns of USMCA Risk, Trim Canada Auto Exposure
Macro: Windsor's slump signals USMCA uncertainty. Key: tariff threats, cross‑border exposure, falling orders. Risk: demand pullback. Trade insight: trim Canada auto-supply positions. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Robust Systems Keep Business Running Without Founder
Two founders. Same revenue. One disappears for three weeks and things keep moving. The other misses four days and Slack starts melting. Systems Design > revenue alone.
Unexpected Metrics Derail Promotion Despite Stellar Delivery
You're in your year-end performance review. You're expecting the promotion you earned after shipping the flagship product on time. The manager slides a new rubric across the desk filled with metrics you've never seen before. Manager: "Great work, but to hit 'Exceeds...
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Rising Nominal Rates, Falling Real Rates Boost Gold
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
War Spikes Oil, Gold Falls, Bonds Surge Globally
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all...
Gulf Tensions Trigger Maersk Outage, Freight Volatility Surge
Gulf tensions rise, hitting flows. Maersk halted Salalah after crane damage; 48h outage. Risk: supply delays, Strait Hormuz disruption. Trade: hedge shipping via freight volatility. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
War Risks Clash with Aggressive Central Bank Pricing
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a