Powell to Stay on Board Until Investigation Concludes
Powell says he has no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is over. And beyond that, he says he has not decided whether or not he will remain on as a Governor after is his term as chair.
Powell’s Tepid Stance on Energy Prices Delays Rate Cuts
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
Powell Vows to Remain Fed Chair if Warsh Unconfirmed
Fed Chair Powell confirms he would stay on as Fed chair pro tem if Kevin Warsh isn't confirmed by the time Powell's term as chair ends. Also adds: "I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is...
Powell Stumped by Rising Services Inflation Amid Soft Job Market
Powell did not have a good answer to the question of why non-housing services inflation has been moving the wrong way if the job market is actually "not inflationary"
Powell Admits Uncertainty on Oil Shock’s Economic Impact
Fed Chair Powell says we "just don't know" what impact of oil shock will be. "The standard learning is that you look through energy shocks, but that’s always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining WELL ANCHORED." "The US economy is doing pretty...
Three Weeks of Strait Closure Sparks Ongoing Chaos
Approaching 3 weeks of Strait closure and no end in sight. Crazy things are happening out there.
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Hits 206 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.31% Same day last year: 6.78% 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.25% Spread today: 206 bps
Powell Shifts From Labor Market Weakness to Downside Risk
Interesting catch where Powell corrects himself from saying "weakness in the labor market" (objectively wrong) to "downside risk in the labor market" (maybe wrong but at least defensible)
When Leaders Feel Understood, Coaching Works
Feedback from one of my coaching clients: “No, seriously. You do get it.” One of the best pieces of feedback I never get tired of hearing. It’s hard to work with a coach, especially at the leadership level, if you don’t...
Fed Holds Rates, Warns No Cut Without Inflation Progress
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth. Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.” https://t.co/d1jJR0aFr2
Fed Chief Warns Inflation Expectations Could Unanchor Amid Shocks
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Unilever, Kraft Heinz Eye Condiment Merger,
Vertical integration of fry sauce Unilever and Kraft Heinz held talks over food merger uniting ketchup and mayo - FT $KHC $UL
Fed Should Treat Inflation Shocks Like Oil Companies
Powell says US oil companies won't raise production unless they believe oil price shocks will be persistent and they don't believe this. Why can't the Fed say the same?
Powell Says Now Is Time to Abandon SEP
Powell embraces the SEP to observe that there was "a meaningful amount of movement" toward fewer cuts and then later leaves the SEP by the side of the road. If there was ever going to be a time to skip...
Fed Holds Steady, Awaits Middle East Clarity
The Fed's stance appears to have changed very little. A simple interpretation: The Fed wants to wait and see what's happening in the Middle East. There's no point taking a strong view until reality becomes clearer. (Powell just described FOMC members...
IRR Overstates Private Equity Returns, Shows 20% ≈ 12%
The most important concept for allocators to understand in private equity is that IRRs are numbers used in marketing and not representative of investor retuns In the below example, a 20% "IRR" is actually equal to an 11.9% annualized return (and...
Powell Hints at Skipping SEP, New Chair Needed
Powell: if we ever were to skip an SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), this would be a good one. We just don't know. Um, the Fed does have the power to skip the SEP. But I gather it takes a new...
Powell’s Frustration Signals Moderately Hawkish Stance Amid Stubborn Inflation
At the Fed press conference, Powell reflects some frustration that inflation hasn't moved more sharply toward target, as tariff-fueled prices are still working their way through the system. This is a moderately hawkish presser, for reasons that largely pre-date the...
Tariff‑induced Inflation Likely Not Just a Temporary Shock
There's not really any reason why we should think that tariff driven inflation shocks need to be seen to be proven they are temporary.
Overemphasizing Supply Shocks Fuels Policymaker Fear
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
Powell Predicts Inflation Progress, Anticipates 2024 Rate Cut
"The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation...we should be seeing that" --Powell, on why there's a rate cut projected for this year
Powell: Five Years Off‑Target Guides Oil Surge Tolerance
In response to a question from @colbyLsmith, Powell acknowledges that 5 years of missing the inflation target will help inform the degree to which the FOMC can look through the oil price surge.
Navigating Complex Regulated Training Growth in Foodservice
NEW: How do you grow a #training #business in a regulated industry? (Hint: It's not easy.) Learn how one CEO navigates complexity + change in the #foodservice world, as I talk with Andrew Tyndall of @ResponsiblTrain, on the Talented Learning Show▶️https://t.co/W1XrgoamHc #lms...
Services Inflation Accelerates Across Broad Range of Categories
Don't know why he said this, services inflation is also accelerating across a broad range of categories
Powell Skips Service‑sector Disinflation Comment From January
Powell just OMITTED this line about "disinflation in the service sector" (vs January press conference) https://t.co/knGJ2D4YW2
Fed Says Supply Shock Shouldn't Trigger Rate Hikes
The Fed disagree with markets on this (and I largely agree). A supply shock -- especially one that doesn't really move core inflation -- should not automatically lead to higher rates. https://t.co/V0LS0P6sGE
Trump’s Economic Metrics Plummet, TSLombard Shows
According to TSLombard, Trump’s numbers are horrible on just about everything, but on the economy it is looking really bad. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/Ro8tuPfMZk
AI Bots Free Doctors for Patients, Not Just Tech
Dr. Selene Castrejon doesn’t run a tech company. She runs a medical practice. Every hour she spends on admin is an hour not spent with patients or growing her business. Inside the AI Business Lab® Mastermind, she built trained AI bots...
GenAI Startups Crash by Ignoring Token Cost Math
Most GenAI startups are scaling into bankruptcy and don't even know it. Not because of bad product. Not bad team. Not bad market. Because they never ran the token math. Here's how a single model choice can cost you $1M/month: ↓
Markets Rally as Fed Turns Less Hawkish than Expected
Last year markets sold off on less dovish than expected Fed. Today they find relief on less hawkish than expected.
AI Permission Fatigue Creates Hidden Security Risks for CIOs
Devs are getting numb to AI permission prompts the same way everyone ignores Terms of Service. Those "approve" clicks can open doors to security, data privacy, and compliance risks CIOs will own. #CIO #AI https://t.co/p18hdtdbZn
Fed's Projections Remain Low, Ignoring CPI and P
It is (too) low. Guessing some of the Fed officials were not willing to fold in Feb CPI data into their projections. And certainly not today's PPI data
2026 Dot Rise Missed; Haw
Those predicting the 2026 dot would rise to no cuts just didn't do the math. What did happen is the 3 Most hawkish reduced from a protest hike to a pause (less hawkish) 3 middle doves got modestly more hawkish And Miran the...
AI Valuations Likely Overinflated, Reset Imminent
VC Bill Gurley sees a reset coming in AI. His point is simple. When a real wave hits, a lot of money is made quickly, and that’s usually when excess builds up. The question isn’t whether AI is real. It’s whether valuations...
FOMC Inflation Forecast Rises for 2026‑2028
The distribution of the FOMC inflation outlook shifted to the right (higher) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 https://t.co/6hxNK4fUdP
Leaders, Not Gemba Walks, Determine Success
Gemba Walks Don’t Fail. Leaders Do. https://t.co/nqZ1wbhGKm Executed correctly, #Gemba walks are one of the most powerful tools #leaders have to understand reality, surface friction, drive meaningful change. When executed poorly, they become expensive theater. #employeeexperience https://t.co/Gkk0VGdoBe
Fed Sees Optimism: Growth up, Jobs Down, Inflation Easing
Fed SEP shows a lot of optimism with GDP growth picking up, the unemployment rate coming down and inflation easing.
Core PCE Above Target, Fed Still Plans Rate Cut
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target). Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides) No downside changes to u3 or output gap. Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year....
Fed Sees Modest Iran‑driven Inflation, Limited Cuts Ahead
Take a look at the Fed's new projections: 1 rate cut in 2026 1 rate cut in 2027 Higher inflation forecast **Slightly higher GDP forecast** --> this signals they are NOT projecting "stagflation" Unemployment rate staying around the current level (4.4%) Bottom line: Fed currently signaling...
FOMC Keeps Short‑Run Rates, Raises Long‑Run Growth Outlook
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Excelling at Your Job Can Stall Career Advancement
The best salesperson I ever hired never got promoted, and it’s because he was too good at his job. But leadership didn’t want to lose him where he was. Skills get you noticed, but strategy gets you out of the role you’re...
Fed Holds Rates, Forecasts First Cut Only in 2026
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
Talent Engineering Is the AI Speed Bottleneck
A good heuristic for whether your company is moving fast enough for AI: Append "engineering" to every function. Then rate it. GTM → GTM Engineering ✅ | Product → Product Engineering ✅ | Talent → Talent Engineering ❌ Talent is where it breaks....
Bootstrapped Founders Can Attract VC Love Beyond Capital
When my friend raised $6M and I told him I was sad to lose another bootstrapper to the VC dark side, he said something that totally dumfounded me. Him: “We're building a generational company and not planning on raising any...
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Fed Holds Rates, Core Inflation Forecast Rises
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
Producer Prices Surge, Undermining Fed’s Rate‑Cut Gains
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem. Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods https://t.co/bCQedto2Yy https://t.co/l9dugS4fI2
Define Clear KPIs to Replace Gut‑Feeling Management
“Davie, something feels off but I don’t know what to do about it or where it is coming from…” I get told this all the time by founders who can’t pinpoint a specific issue in their business but they still feel...
San Francisco: Unmatched Era for Builders Today
In all of human history, there’s never been a better place or time to be a builder than San Francisco right now.
Job Gains Skewed to Healthcare and Education, Masking Contraction
Nearly all net job gains are in healthcare and education. Strip those out and the labor market is contracting. The headline number is a mirage. https://t.co/OY4R3G58U5