AI-Driven Layoffs: CEOs Cutting 20‑40% Staff Now
I get at least one text a week from a CEO planning to cut staff. Not small companies. $20M, $200M, $400M businesses. Block just cut 40% of its workforce — 4,000 people. Gone. Harry Stebbings from 20VC is saying the same thing: at least 20% cuts across the board. And these aren't panic decisions. These are calculated moves. CEOs are looking at what AI agents can do right now and doing simple math. The public narrative is "AI will create new jobs." And it will — eventually. But right now, behind closed doors, the conversations are about who to let go, not who to hire. The companies saying "we won't cut" on the record? Zero. I literally put that on the chart. Zero dots. This isn't a prediction. It's already happening. The only question is whether your company is cutting 20% or 40%. If you're an employee, the move is obvious: become the person who makes AI work, not the person AI replaces. If you're a CEO, stop pretending this isn't coming. Have the honest conversation with your team now before the market forces it. For more on AI, business, and marketing, just comment "newsletter."
AI Assistant Vellum Answers Calls and Handles Tasks
🚨 I've been using an AI that literally picks up my phone calls for me. Not a chatbot. Not another browser tab. An actual personal assistant that lives on my computer and gets shit done. It's called Vellum. Here's what it did for me...
Avoid Email List Mistakes to Unlock 7‑Figure Growth
👇Comment NEWSLETTER and I’ll DM you this week’s newsletter…we’re talking email list mistakes that are quietly killing your sales, the mindset shift separating 6 from 7 figures, and a few things I’m trying NOT to buy 😅
Core PCE Outpaces CPI Due to Weighting Differences
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
Practical UX Leadership: Influence Without Unlimited Resources
So I've been running workshops for Smashing Magazine for a while now, and each time I put one together I ask myself whether I'm actually teaching the right things or just covering the topics I find interesting. (Probably a bit...
Aramco Restores 70% Flow, Yet Critical 30% Still Blocked
Saudi Aramco resumed 70% of oil shipments via Red Sea pipeline. Markets celebrated. But 30% is still offline. And the Strait of Hormuz — the main artery — remains contested. 70% of normal isn't normal. https://t.co/8vfhBzo9cZ
CPI Meets Forecasts, Rate‑Cut Outlook Hits Low
Both US headline and core #CPI for February were both in-line with expectations and previous: 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Nevertheless, expectations for FOMC rate cuts through this year are the lowest since May 2nd (-30bps). That won't make Trump happy... https://t.co/9kJhHgDilS
Blog Content Fuels $4M ARR Without Sales or Ads
Joel Griffith's first big customers didn't come from sales or ads. They came from blog posts. One user brought Browserless with them to their next company. Then the next one. At nearly $4M ARR, content still drives almost all their inbound. https://t.co/rqTYeCejSm
CPI Understates Inflation; Core Services Surge, Fed Faces More Pressure
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
Media VC Deals Plunge 70% While AI Soars
.@thewrap looks at M&A so far this year: media VC deals are falling – 70% year over year – compared to AI which is soaring. Here’s the story in charts, in partnership with @PitchBook : https://t.co/dQDSQqFM6m
Join Hedgeye Live: Data‑Driven Fed, Economy, Market Talk
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/MHeVrqQao0 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/YcfP4M0qvV
Rebel Audio Debuts Invite-Only AI Podcast App, Adds Mark Burnett
AI Podcast Start-Up Rebel Audio Launches App With Invite-Only Access, Taps Mark Burnett as Adviser (EXCLUSIVE) https://t.co/C0nR4IG3VQ
Market at Fair Value After 4% S&P Pullback
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Europe Scrambles to Mitigate Prices After Trump’s Iran War
Europe rushes to deal with price fallout from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/khA8dhNhMj via @johnainger @donatopmancini https://t.co/3tcyP5Pu0U
Sick‑day Paperwork Reveals Employer Distrust Built by Hustle Culture
Somewhere right now, an employee is sitting in an urgent care waiting room - not because they need urgent care, but because their company needs a piece of paper. That paper, costing them a co-pay and half the morning, will confirm...
Test Investor Commitment Now, Not Just Bank Diversification
Founders: the real lesson from the SVB collapse three years ago wasn’t “diversify your bank.” It was this: find out now -- in good times -- whether your investor will wire money with no strings when everything breaks. Most won’t....
Rising Taxes Trigger Housing Supply Surge, Fuel Doom Loop
if you keep increasing the taxy levy without real benefits, eventually new supply (some forced) comes into market and lowers price, which then increases the tax rate burden as a % of asset that makes it very unattractive this is the...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Brent Upside Risk Despite Parity
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Lilly's CEO Pursues Sustainable ‘Exit Velocity’ to Reach Trillion‑Dollar Milestone
NEW: I took a step back in looking at Lilly's ascent to the trillion-dollar club, and CEO David Ricks' actions in attempting to find "exit velocity" in the pharma industry + stay there: https://t.co/pVIADCH8AU
Easy Financial's Collapse: Massive Losses, CEOs Flee
What The Heck Happened At Easy Financial? This Ain't Looking Good The parent company Goeasy Ltd. revised earnings for the last 2 years downward, declared spectacular Loan Losses, suspended dividends & the stock price dropped over 50% It's fishy for sure...
Middle East Conflict Squeezes India's LPG Supply, Spikes Black‑market Prices
The primary driver is the escalating conflict in West Asia involving Iran, Israel, and the US. This has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime gateway for nearly 90% of India's LPG imports. While the government has prioritized domestic supply...
Coaching Expectation Misfires: Managers Lack Time, Incentive
It was about 10-15 years ago I started hearing about managers needing to be coaches/mentors in tech. Outliers aside, this was a terrible expectation to set up. Managers rarely have the skillset/time for this and even if they do, there are too...
Official Inflation Rates Hide Everyday Price Surge
Everything is high as hell. Inflation is screaming “make it enough”.. The CPI report — “it’s not that high” Reality — lady goes into CVS and buys: shampoo and conditioner, six pack of toilet paper, and a birthday card. 4...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Crude and Gas Prices Mirror Each Other After Nine Days
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Fear of Numbers Stops Creatives From Hiring Bookkeepers
The number one reason creative business owners give for not hiring a bookkeeper is "I'm not sure I can afford it." But the reason they don't know if they can afford it is usually because they don't know their numbers. The...
Restaurant Prices Rise Faster Than Overall Inflation
Restaurant menu price inflation continues to run hotter than overall inflation. Today's reading shows FAFH CPI up 3.9% (!), with limited service prices up 3.2% and full service up 4.6%. The affordability crisis continues. https://t.co/c9SLvliOyk
Inflation Pops Up Unexpectedly Like Whack‑a‑Mole
Whack-a-mole inflation wasn't on my bingo card today, but it is what we are seeing.
Prolonged Middle East Conflict Will Spike Oil and Inflation
Everyone thinks this war will be quick, clean, and somehow end with peace across the Middle East. That’s fantasy. We’ve heard this story before. Iraq. Afghanistan. Politicians promise “mission accomplished” and the real problems start right after. Markets are still far too optimistic...
Goods Inflation 3% Above 30‑Year Average, Tariffs & AI Bottlenecks Driving Surge
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
Blended ROAS Hides SKU Performance; Track Collections, Monitor SKUs
Your blended ROAS is masking which products are actually carrying your account. We don't run SKU-level campaigns unless a brand has very few SKUs. We go collection-level. But we're always monitoring SKU data on the backend: https://t.co/Kha62DwjUl
Marketing and Sales Alignment: Essential for Growth
RT @VisionEdgeMktg 🔗 Marketing-sales alignment isn't optional. It's essential for growth. How aligned are you? https://t.co/7V4lLZ2Up8 #MarketingSales #Alignment #Growth
From Marathon to Sprint: Scale Software Fast
Building a software company was a marathon and now it requires sprinting the entire marathon distance.
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
In‑house Construction Risks Marginal Deals During Pipeline Lulls
As a value-add real estate operator or developer with a rapidly growing deal pipeline, can be *very* tempting to in-house the construction function. The upsides are: more transparency around pricing, more control and (if you do it well) some additional profit. However,...
Day 2 Highlights: Crowd Prioritizes Critical Infrastructure Security
Kicking off Day 2 at CS4CA in Houston. Great crowd focused on securing our most critical infrastructure.
AI Giant Issues $25B Debt to Boost Stock
The AI poster child is issuing $25B in debt to buy back its own stock. Not to invest in AI. Not to acquire capabilities. To support the share price. That's the strategy. $CRM
Success Requires Years of Unseen Struggle and Persistence
The “overnight success” you admire? It took: – 2 years of unpaid learning – 17 rejected applications – Countless unfinished projects We see the launch. We don’t see the loneliness. Stay long enough. Your time will come.
ZIRP Turned Emergency QE Into Permanent Financialization Policy
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t...
Rate Cuts Surge, yet Long-Term Yields Climb
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Pitch by Showing Less Work, Not Brilliance
Next time you’re pitching anything to anyone, remember this. They’re not thinking about how brilliant your idea is. They’re not thinking about the money. They’re not thinking about the glory. The only question on their mind is simple: How much more work is this going...
Worst Loans Hit First as Credit Cycles Collapse
FWIW - As the worst loans are made at the very peak of the credit cycle, credit cycles invariably burst on a LIFO basis. The worst always go first, and frequently through a high-storey window leaving no skid marks.
Century AI Hits Product-Market Fit, Signals Success
Bright green flags Century AI reached "Product Market Fit" 🙌 Yesterday someone left this comment; (btw @whoop you can still buy us for €1m)
Benign CPI Masks Deeper Inflation, Limits Fed’s Options
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
Fed Overstates Shelter Inflation's Impact on Target
The odd part is that Fed officials have made a big deal about the importance of falling shelter inflation apparently without remembering it has a smaller impact in their actual inflation target.
AI Determines Who Advances or Gets Replaced
AI is reshaping which leaders get hired, promoted, or replaced. Are you telling a powerful AI impact story about your work? #AI #Career https://t.co/mIefOcbMM8
Too Many Screens Scare Away Genuine Candidates
Validating whether or not a candidate is real by subjecting them to a battery of assessments and screening layers seems like a great way to lose real candidates.
Synthetic Recruiters Will Set Recruiting Back Decades
Apparently the best response to “synthetic candidates” is synthetic recruiters. This whole fiction is going to set back the profession by decades.
Finance Lessons From Disney+ Launch: Forecast, Retention, Board Clarity
The surprisingly true story of launching Disney+ (as told by their finance team) 👇 Here are 5 lessons that stuck with me. 1. Even a beloved brand doesn't make the forecast easier 2. A good launch number can hide a...
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG