Cyclical Job Loss Spreads to Education and Health
Over the last 12 months basically every cyclical industry but construction and leisure/hospitality has negative job growth. The new news today is the negative Education/Health, but the cyclical economy has been weak for a long time. https://t.co/TdUz4KvRxm
Current Monetary Policy Fails; Need Easier
If only there were a monetary policy regime that made it easier for central banks to navigate such trying times… oh wait https://t.co/XA5Pw2bVIi (1/2)
Watch Fed Rate‑Cut Signals After NFP Miss
A fundamental thread to keep an eye on after the NFPs miss: the implied FOMC rate cuts through Fed Funds futures overlaid with the $DXY Dollar index. CPI and PCE next week. FOMC rate decision the Wednesday after next https://t.co/Rslg81c0CC
WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
Sales Leaders Must Coach in Real Time, Not Just Track
One thing Jason Williams and I talked about on the podcast is something a lot of sales leaders avoid. Getting in the field with your reps. Listening to their calls. Watching how they handle conversations. Coaching them in real time. It’s uncomfortable. It takes time....
NFP Shows Sharp Industry Swings; Health Care Near Zero
NFP swings by industry between Feb 2026 & prior 12M average. Couple of notes: 1. Even adj for Kaiser strike, health care was near-0 in Feb, a large swing down from its prior +36K/M average. 2. Big down swings in Leisure &...
Compass Merger Triggers 110 Layoffs; Anywhere HQ Available
If you work for #Anywhere in #MadisonNJ, you might want to polish up your resume. Merger w/#Compass costs 110 jobs at combined #brokerage giant. 270KSF Anywhere HQ up for lease. #realestate #MandA #mortgage #NJ #layoffs #JLL #RobertReffkin https://t.co/4SsKTtsrg2
Start at the Funnel Bottom for Rapid Pipeline Results
If paid media is set up correctly, you should start seeing a qualified pipeline within 30–45 days. Here's how we achieve that for our clients: Many B2B teams end up running paid media backwards. They start with awareness, build an...
Offshoring Drug Discovery Could Create Massive US Trade Deficit
Jake puts it crisply: >If discovery and early development move abroad, the nation risks locking in a massive trade imbalance: Foreign countries develop the drugs, and Americans pay the bills.
Feb US Jobs Miss Marks Largest Downside Since 2021
US #NFPs dropped in February by -92K vs +70K expected and +126K added in January. This was the biggest downside 'surprise' (-162K) since the pandemic shutdown (specifically Aug 2021) https://t.co/HgS3Y8EA9t
Google Warns Disavow Tool Is More Harmful than Helpful
From Barry: "As a reminder, John Mueller of Google often says that disavowing links is a waste of time. Heck, like Bing, Google may remove the disavow tool at some point. In fact, Google said the disavow tools hurts many...
Iran-Israel Clash May Trigger Worldwide Power Showdown
The Iran–Israel war is not just a regional conflict. It may be part of a much larger global escalation cycle. The latest analysis looks at the wider strategic picture and how the current war could evolve into a broader confrontation involving major...
Stack Collapse Will Transform Low‑Margin Service Industries
agree with this thesis - collapsing stack (of talent, process, and economics) in almost absurd ways in a specific vertical will birth the next generation leaders in services. these traditionally people-intensive, slow, low margin businesses will look entirely different
Stagflation Signals Emerge as Oil Rises, Jobs Push Cuts
At a time when markets are pushing back Fed cut odds because of the oil spike, seeing jobs data that demands rate cuts leaves everyone unhappy. Stagflation, directionally. Not there yet but pointing that way.
Context Is the iPhone Moment for GTM Success
A couple weeks ago @ParthGujare_ Senior Product Manager at Ramp posted about their internal revenue stack and what they had built for it. “A customer data platform “processes millions of records, internal, external, crm data daily”, A unified action layer with...
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Iran Could Spark Global Oil Crisis via Hormuz
I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a big chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to cause a global crisis. Thanks to @SoumayaKeynes for having me on...
Young, Black, Hispanic, Asian Americans Face Rising Unemployment
Important point: February was a dismal jobs report. But look closer at who is suffering the most in this frozen job market... Young people African Americans Hispanic Americans Asian Americans These are the groups that have had the biggest uptick in unemployment rates. https://t.co/zszvNZ2Xv3
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
Cattle Prices Surge Ahead of Other Commodities Amid Inflation
So do the cattle look at the inflationary trade taking place and go higher or do they look at the equities and the consumer being hurt by higher energy products and a slowing economy possibly and come under pressure....
February Sees Job Losses Across Nearly All Sectors
Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov't -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining -2,000 Social assistance +9,000 Finance +10,000 #jobs
February Jobs Data Deepens Fed Split over Rates
February's jobs report will certainly stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials are highly concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation,...
Current Curve Rerating Signals Faster Resolution Than 2022
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
Risk‑off Sentiment Keeps Dollar Flat Despite Weak Payroll
If things were normal, the Dollar should be falling sharply right now. We just got a -1.9 standard deviation surprise on payrolls, which should be weighing on USD. But nothing about today is normal. We're in a massive risk-off and...
Slugfation Ahead: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation
After seeing the weak jobs data, my view is ever stronger that "slugfation" (sluggish economic growth coupled with sticky inflation) lies ahead. @thestreetpro @dougkass @tomkeene @ferrotv @business @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @pboockvar @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @WhitneyTilson @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick
Build the Right Operational Foundation, Not Just Harder Work
Sometimes the breakthrough doesn’t come from working harder, it comes from building the right operational foundation.
EU Bond Yields Converge; Ideal Moment for Euro Debt
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
Hormuz Delay Boosts VLCC Rates, Atlantic Shift Looms
They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong? ▶️Baltic Exchange’s MEG-China VLCC index reaches new high of $485,959 per day; MEG-Singapore VLCC index is at $507,709 per day ▶️VLCCs are loading Saudi crude at Red Sea pipeline...
Daily 3‑minute Habit Builds Massive LinkedIn Audience
Anyone can build a massive LinkedIn audience in 2026. Here's how: Publish 1 piece of writing per day. To do this, you don't have to be a prolific writer. Just use this simple 3-minute habit (it's how I never run out of ideas to...
Job Losses Surge, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Revisions subtracted 69,000 in December and January from previously reported job growth, leading to negative job growth in December.
February Jobs Miss Sharply, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
February Non-Farm Payrolls prints at -92K vs expected 58K - previously 126K Unemployment ticks up to 4.4% vs expected hold
Your Failure? No System. Build One Now.
You were lazy? No. You were busy? No. You were inconsistent? No. You just lacked a system. Now go build one.
Jeff Green Poised for Major Announcement After $150M TTD Purchase
Expecting a big tout today from the Jeff Green , CEO of $TTD , after his $150M buy of $TTD https://t.co/8KUt1JKoTZ
Jobs Data Sparks Early Volatility Across Crypto, Oil, Tech
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Cutting Cycle Ends
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Byron Allen Buys 10.7% of Starz for $25M
Byron Allen Acquires 10.7% Stake in Starz From Steve Mnuchin’s Investment Firm for $25 Million https://t.co/uuDK84OBQW via @variety
Iran's Threat to Oil Tankers Could Trigger Market Crash
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will...
Talent‑First Strategy Powers Decades of Private‑Equity Returns
I started preparing for a research episode on a top private equity firm ($3B+ in AUM), and here are some of the notes I’ve taken so far: >Talent drives returns. >Their model is driven by the search for outlier investment talent. >Most of...
War Fuels Market Turmoil, Dollar Nears New High vs Yen
The War Continues to Roil the Markets: The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen,...
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Cut Toxic Envious Friends; Small Circles Fuel Success
The saddest thing about success is realizing how few people actually wanted to see you succeed. They smiled to your face but secretly hoped you’d fail. Learn to recognize quiet envy. Cut those people from your life. Small circles create...
Google's AI Shift Redefines SEO: Fewer Links, New Landing Pages
SEO Video recap covering Google volatility, AI Mode recipe links and cards, ChatGPT search with fewer links and AI-generated search landing pages to take over https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTXftNIRC-M Sponsored by BruceClay
Job Applications Now Demand Absurd Personal Data Overload
This might be the most obnoxious job application I’ve seen in a while. Slide deck. Personality ratings. Grades from high school and college. Your current life goals. Your podcast list. Just. To. Apply. I’m surprised they didn’t ask for your Spotify Wrapped and a reference from...
Ask Three Questions Before Building or Using APIs
A client messaged me frustrated last month. They'd spent 3 months building something from scratch... that an API could have handled in a week. I've seen the opposite too. Teams so dependent on third-party APIs that one pricing change broke their entire business model. Both...
Dow Plunges as Supply Chain Enters Cardiac Arrest
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
S&P Holds Support; Jobs Data Could Shift Momentum
$SPX :6775 is active support, then the lows of the week at 6710. Jobs report at 8:30 could change the picture — the street is modeling ~+55k, and in-line or a little stronger would be better than a miss. https://t.co/qIBCw3h3lN
Google Unveils Hidden Workspace CLI for AI Integration
"Greasing the wheels for OpenClaw users". Also includes provisions for MCP integrations -> Google has quietly released an unsupported Workspace CLI, making it easier for agentic AI tools to access Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Docs, and other apps "The Google Workspace CLI...
Most Sites Don't Need Link Disavow, but some Do
Google's @johnmu says most sites don't need to disavow links but that is not all sites https://t.co/cliyEKeuoM https://t.co/Bsc0HcEkY2
Inelastic Demand Fuels Strong Futures; Grains, Energy Steady
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."