2025 Year-End Bonuses Shrink, Uneven Amid Economic Slowdown
1/2 SCMP: "Long viewed by Chinese employees as a barometer of corporate prospects, industry momentum and even the broader economy, the year-end bonus packages for 2025 have become smaller, rarer and far more unevenly distributed, amid slowing... https://t.co/MFbnMtmZdY
Danaher Nears $10 B Acquisition of Masimo
Big deal scoop by @sindap and @mroliverbarnes - US healthcare manufacturer Danaher is closing in a $10bn deal to buy medical tech group Masimo. A deal could be announced as early as Tuesday provided it does not hit any last-minute...
China's Hidden Bank Interventions Hit $800B Annual Record
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
Speed, Not Scale, Drives AI Agent Advantage
OpenClaw proved that one person can out-ship billion-dollar labs on agents. What does that say about where the competitive advantage actually is?
Falling Rates Could Quickly Revive Builder Margins
Sales are weak. Inventory is tight. Builder sentiment is soft. If rates fall, incentives drop — and margins can snap back fast. The setup in homebuilders isn’t getting enough attention. Read more: https://t.co/AJREG4myee
Software's Toughest Challenge: Standardizing Messy Business, Not Coding
Yes, it's true: the hardest part of software was never the technical aspect. What software does it is it takes the messy reality of business and turns it into a series of standardized flows and processes. That's the hard...
Founders Obsess Over OpenClaw: Why It Matters
Why are founders SO OBSESSED with OpenClaw? The creator of the AI assistant, Peter Steinberger has moved over to OpenAI, sending waves of panic and trepidation across the developer community. We’ve talked for weeks about the advantages of the OpenClaw...
Low Builder Turnout Threatens Startup Weekend Women Event
I’m sad - I’ve been working so hard on startup weekend women here in columbus Ohio and because we have such a low amount of builders we might have to reschedule or cancel. I’ve never experienced this with an event...
Iranian Rial Plummets, Becomes World's Second Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
2026 Macro Outlook: Resilient Momentum Amid Inflation Leaks
New episode 🎙️ Rob Haworth (U.S. Bank Asset Management) joins me to break down 2026 macro: resilient momentum, inflation + earnings “leaking” through the system, tariffs, geopolitics, Fed uncertainty, and what to watch if rates spike. https://t.co/OPTdLbcGgJ
Europe Still Buys Russian LNG and Uranium, Despite Criticism
🧐This is nonsense hype from the Center for the Study of Democracy. Yet CNN did not bother to check the validity of their claims or ask other researchers. Here's why: 💥Many European countries, including France, buy LNG from Russia. 💥The US and...
Multiple Bidders Boost Leverage, Valuation, and Deal Success
A competitive sales process includes multiple buyers bidding against each other, each investing considerable time and resources to win the bid. This competition increases: * Your negotiating leverage * Your valuation * Your probability of a closed deal #founders #pathtoexit
Japan’s Nuclear Restarts Cut Costs, Boost Yen, Tame Inflation
Japan’s nuclear reactors continue to come back online. This is a major positive for consumers, businesses, and the environment, as it increases the supply of cheap energy, and reduces reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels. This dynamic should also support the...
Human Value Shifts to Distribution as AI Dominates Creation
As AI eats more of product building (autocompleting code -> writing 100% of code -> reviewing its own code -> deciding what to build in the first place -> judgement to know what is great), where will human brains be...
Dalio's Stage 6: 5 Stocks for the New World Order
Ray Dalio says the world order has broken down. His “Stage 6” post went viral on X. What does that mean for markets? I mapped his framework to 5 stocks positioned for trade wars, tech controls, rearmament, energy shocks & gold. Here’s the playbook: https://t.co/FrP3YuOJA9
SAP-Microsoft Integration Simplifies Adoption, Erodes D365 Edge
SAP integrating with Microsoft tools blunts any perceived strategic advantage D365 has. User adoption becomes easier when tied to products people already use. #PowerBI #SAP https://t.co/rkRNfWeI6s
When CEOs Outshine Teams, Hiring Is Failing
Early on, the CEO is “the best person at the company” at some things. Often sales (passion + knowledge) or product vision. But by 100 people, if the CEO is “better than everyone” at 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨, the CEO has hired poorly, and...
Future‑Ready Infrastructure Must Pivot With Market Shifts
Resilience today means being future ready. Can your infrastructure pivot as rates change, markets shift, or new competitors emerge? https://t.co/jCrVklXEuZ
Ship a Rough Prototype Today, Not Perfect Plans Tomorrow
Most builders spend 6 months perfecting their plan. Then ship nothing. A rough prototype shipped today beats a perfect product shipped never. Execution is the only strategy that compounds.
Pause, Listen, and Question Your Own Assumptions
Everyday Pauses: Resisting the impulse to speak. Keep your lips together. Listen to understand. Shifting to curiosity. Humility learns. Ego knows. Ask yourself, “What might they understand that I don’t?” Challenge your own wisdom.
2025 Profitability Snapshot: Sector Returns & Excess Gains
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
Private Credit Bets on Software Amid AI Uncertainty
Five private credit firms just provided $1.4B for a software buyout of OneStream valued at $6.4B. Same week everyone’s asking whether AI will make these companies obsolete. The market is telling you software is at risk. The lenders are telling you...
Recovery Plans Must Assume Active Directory Can Fail
If Active Directory is down, can you even log in to start restoring backups? A lot of recovery plans assume core services are intact but that's not always a safe bet.
In AI Era, VC Success Hinges on Taste
This. In a world in which AI can generate infinite everything — images, content, you name it — the key differentiator becomes curation, which requires taste to be done well. VC is the ultimate test of taste. I don’t think...
Only AI‑savvy Employees Survive; Let Resistors Go
We started the year committed to bring everyone at @singlegrain to Claude Code proficient levels. For new hires, they need to go through our ‘Beat Claude’ challenge, meaning that they can use AI to answer questions, but if they merely...
Choose the Letter: Prioritize Product Over Business Wrapper
Are you an envelope entrepreneur or a letter entrepreneur? Someone who's about the container, the business on the outside, or someone who's more focused on the letter, the product inside? You can be both, but I think most are definitely one or...
Start Crypto Agility Now Before Quantum Day Arrives
⏳ Data stolen today will be cracked tomorrow. Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) isn't a "next year" problem—it’s a multi-year migration that starts now. I’m looking for "Crypto Agility" on the floor at #RSAC2026. Are you ready for the Q-Day countdown? https://t.co/6PIC4o7OmO #QuantumSecurity...
US Tech Dominance Fades as Global Rotation Shifts
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now. 1. Global vs US rotation 2. Top in tech stocks For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change... https://t.co/6DhUXusR6C
2026: Scale AI Agents Safely with Checklist
If 2025 was the year of "launch an AI pilot," 2026 must be the year of "launch AI agents safely at scale." This 10 point checklist is built for that shift. #AI #CIO #DigitalTransformation https://t.co/1tg10UmJNv
Investors Shift From S&P 500 to Alternatives, Gains Accelerate
Rotation away from S&P500 (flat on the year) into other assets like foreign stocks, US value, etc up 10-15% seems to be accelerating...
Master These 5 SaaS Metrics for Sustainable Growth
Every SaaS leader should master these 5 metrics. Bookings, retention, margins, OPEX, and efficiency — the core numbers behind durable growth and valuation. 🎥 https://t.co/ViVeSCTLXx #SaaS #SaaSMetrics https://t.co/bvoRB24XES
Venezuelan Bolivar Plummets 87%, Becomes World’s Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 87% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE BOLIVAR AND REPLACE IT WITH THE US DOLLAR. https://t.co/dHtPzNew81
Weekly S&P 500 Chart Review Highlights Key Trends
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/B5a4uBC2Q4 Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @topdowncharts @dailychartbook @MauiBoyMacro @KobeissiLetter @StealthQE4 @HayekAndKeynes
Adjust ROI: Account for Estimation Errors in Task Prioritization
ROI is a good way to prioritize mid-sized tasks, but estimation errors (both in duration and in impact) can change the ROI by 2x-5x, so you need a system that understands that and causes you to select the right tasks...
13 Leaders Reveal Proven AI Skills Training Strategies
Recently, we shared great ideas from 12 leaders on how to drive workforce #AI adoption. Here, 13 more share their most effective methods for AI #skills #training. You'll see common ground: Smart strategies, resourceful thinking, strong results➡️ https://t.co/ftzVJt0OwH #learning https://t.co/WCm3YVzfVI
Sector Rotation Ends; Brace for Upcoming Volatility
Given I timed the sector rotation with precision in Nov & said it would likely run until Feb, and we are here, I'm gonna share what else I also told clients: IN LIEU OF SECTOR ROTATION, THERE WILL BE VOLATILITY™️😉
Trump's Presidency Keeps Oil Prices Higher, OPEC+ Cuts Production
The best—only?—argument that Trump is bearish for oil prices is that OPEC+ wouldn't have hiked crude production as aggressively last year in a world in which Harris was sitting in the White House.
Gold Overtakes Major Currencies as Dollar Reserve Share Plummets
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
Alphabet and Meta CDS Explode From Zero to Top Traders
A year ago, CDS on Alphabet and Meta didn't exist. Now they're among the most actively traded single-name contracts in the US market Nobody creates a default insurance market for fun... $GOOG $META
Eurogroup Sets 2026 Priorities, Boosts Euro’s Global Role
Back in Brussels today for the #Eurogroup meeting, where we discussed: 🔹 euro area policy priorities for 2026 🔹 the international role of the euro https://t.co/FAa7OvZiMt
AI Disruption Drives Widening Credit Spreads Ahead of Earnings
AI disruption is hitting IG credit spreads, not just stock prices. Concentrix: BBB-rated, 455,000 call center employees. Paid 130bps concession to refinance. Stock down 24% last week. Spreads doubled in February. Credit markets pricing obsolescence before it shows up in earnings.
Semiconductors Shift From Volume to ASP‑Driven Value
Modeled a range of scenarios, but showing mid-bull to make a key point. For the first time in semiconductor industry history, value creation is primarily an ASP story not a volume story. https://t.co/IoHFb65Gmq
Content Drives Hiring: 10+ Hires From One Episode
Talked to a @BananaCap_ portfolio company this morning who mentioned they hired 10+ people from their @ThePeelPod episode. Insane how much value you can add for founders when you get really dialed in on content.
Amazon's High Capex-to-FCF Isn't New, Still Managed Well
Working on my $AMZN growth thesis report for this week, and just helpful to point out, that this high capex to FCF is not uncharted territory for Amazon. I get there is more competition this time than e-comm but they...
Investors Buy Protection Despite Record VIX Short Positions
Does anyone have a good explanation for why equity skew shows investors are paying up for downside protection but also VIX futures are at near record shorts? Those seem to be contradictory. https://t.co/IWYZ9IHTYl
AI-Driven Redesign Lets Small Groups Shape Future Systems
Underestimated moment of agency/leverage is that many systems are being redesigned for AI & fluid for the first time in a long time (how do you hire? How does scientific publishing work?) That creates an opening for small groups to set...
Warsh May Threaten Fed Stability Despite Doubtful Capability
Good piece. Warsh would be a fundamental break from the Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell Feds if he carried out his views. Do I think he’s capable of pulling that off? Not really. Do I think he might try to and...
Seeking Causes Behind Hedge Funds' Rising Leverage Beyond
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
Analyst's Report Becomes VC Gospel, Raises Billions
This former analyst turned a single report into Silicon Valley gospel—then she raised billions to rewrite the rules of venture capital.
China's Surplus Doesn't Directly Boost US Treasury Holdings
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...