Markets Underestimate Iran Conflict’s Oil Shock Potential
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it. They did during the Ukraine war and Covid. Countries will switch to coal, change behavior, et al. That's what Jim Cramer was saying as well, he said he just couldn't imagine Iran controlling something important, just bomb them to the stone age, he said. Then I listened to @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway conversation with @Rory_Johnston and Johnston noted that this view is the conventional wisdom in the markets. That makes sense. Recency bias is that shutting Hormuz is manageable, just as shutting off Russian oil exports was manageable. in 2022. The markets will realize this situation is different, but it'll take a bit more time. Then when something serious breaks, they'll panic. There will be the pre-panic era, which we're in now, and then the post-panic era. The world will look fundamentally different.
Wide-Beamed Bristol
Here’s a peek at the recovery vessel. She’s not especially yar, but is very wide of beam, with clean spaces and, definitely, ship shape and in Bristol fashion https://t.co/pP9vklQCLt
Tesla Aims for Hundreds of Cybercabs Weekly, Scaling to 10K
the production line is probably around 10K per week at scale. *hundreds* will be initial production next month. $TSLA
Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Flow, Spikes Food Prices
My take on the CONSEQUENCES of the WAR IN IRAN: "About 33 percent of the world's fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Some people realize this is a BIG DEAL." UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR = HIGHER FOOD PRICES. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney on...
Fast All‑Cash Fund Closes Retail Deals in 35 Days
A broker recently asked me how we’re different than all the other value-add retail buyers he hears from. Fair question. Well, we’ve been doing this since 2006. We’ve purchased 45 of them. We buy every deal all-cash. We can close anywhere in the US...
Metro Ad Suggests Relativity Space's Unexpected Strategic Pivot
Saw this ad on the Metro this morning and thought for a second that Relativity Space had made a very sharp pivot. https://t.co/MWdZhHXmrq
NYC’s Ultra‑Luxury Condo Turns Wealth Into Playground
Inside #NYC's most secretive #condo project #80Clarkson overlooking the Hudson+its 'sophisticated fun house.' Where being rich means indulging your inner child. Also #Zuckerburg's new #Fla pad, #Napa+more. #realestate #mortgage https://t.co/LMkqpwmmCt via @WSJ
Hormuz Closure Threatens Markets, Fuels Inflation Surge
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
AI Simplifies EU Procurement Rules Under New Accelerator Act
#tradeXpresso: the proposed EU Industrial Accelerator Act triggered a lot of reactions, as it may impact access to public procurement. Navigating international rules on public procurement is not always simple. But we can easify things. 👇 “AI meets IAA” https://t.co/5QdEEcLoAS https://t.co/SMUwtZTxrj
Intermodal’s Cycle Persists, Yet Remains Freight Backbone
Intermodal is cyclical — but still essential. On Talking Transports, I speak with @stglogistics' CEO Geoff Anderman about restructuring, rail trends, the UP–NS merger, cost discipline & preparing for freight recovery. 🎧 Listen: Apple: https://t.co/BFGLBPxVbm Spotify: https://t.co/qSsGXCEHTb iHeart: https://t.co/t1eLhkFXoB https://t.co/eCb5WV066Z: https://t.co/eA06OJWsu4 Bloomberg Terminal: https://t.co/Ju1Vv2LsIE #Freight #Intermodal #Rail...
Gulf War Three Falters, US Faces Strategic Setback
Dan’s subhead: “Gulf War Three is not going well for the United States”. I believe Dan Drezner knows more than I do about what is currently going on with the Epstein-Netanyahu-Trump War on Iran, so I turn the microphone over to...
Estate Planning Must Address Digital Access Challenges
Many assume estate planning is handled once documents are signed, but DIGITAL estate planning does not behave that way. For many clients, the real issue is an ACCESS problem: email, cloud photos, financial logins, business accounts, and Terms of Service...
Housing Starts Beat Forecast, Yet Momentum Questioned
Housing starts surprised to the upside in the latest report, rising to a 1.487 million SAAR and coming in above consensus expectations. On the surface, the headline suggests renewed momentum in residential construction. However... https://t.co/1r862BDOdv
From Crowded MATS Line to Modern Trucking Evolution
The line to get into MATS in 2000 The US trucking scene has evolved a lot in the past 25 years https://t.co/cIoMImK7Xe
Trump Dismisses Iran Risk, Claims Instant Devastation
He thinks this is a game. I warned early and often: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN Trump says "we could do a lot worse" to Iran. "We could take them out by this afternoon. In fact, within an...
Defining a Lunar Base: Landers, Proximity, Night Survival
This does get to the question of what is a “lunar base”. Is one CLPS lander the first element of a lunar base? Two, near each other? Do they have to survive the lunar night??
U.S. Navy Unready to Escort Tankers
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 United States says Navy is not ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It would be 'suicide'. So the war wages on while Trump sends ameteur AI videos from the WH to evoke fake gamer...
Agency Client Lands on Bestseller List, Celebration!
It was so exciting yesterday to see an agency client hit the bestseller list. ❤️❤️❤️
Housing Construction Stalls as Permits Show No Real Rise
The honest truth is that not much is happening in housing construction until permits start to rise with some kick, but this is really going nowhere, aside from monthly volatility. https://t.co/Nw9k88N1fn
Nevermined AI: The Original Slim Shady of Payments
Watch this space. @Nevermined_ai is the OG Slim Shady of AI agent payments All the other Slim Shadies will need to sit down.
Port Firefighters Quell Two Tanker Blazes at Once
Look at that, having proper firefighting capability in a port can actually extinguish not one, but two ship fires simultaneously.
Trump Bought Just 20M Barrels Amid Low Oil Prices
It's pretty amazing that the Trump administration only bought 20MN barrels of oil given oil averaged in the low 60's.
Future Overregulation Will Eclipse Dodd‑Frank’s Limits
FWIW - The wave of overregulation ahead is going to make Dodd Frank look like feeble.
FCC Chair Delivers Package to Amazon After SpaceX Spat
D.C. Memo: In an Unusual Move, @FCC Chairman @BrendanCarrFCC Drops the Package at @Amazon’s Front Door; Carr reacted negatively to Amazon’s attack on @SpaceX’s effort to build a massive data center satellite constellation in low Earth orbit https://t.co/HSMxGLeUuw
One‑Third of Gen Z Prefer In‑Store Shopping, Matching Boomers
This was an interesting stat given by Petco in their call last night, “Industry data tells us that 34% of Gen Z customers shop exclusively in stores. Interestingly, this group’s preference for an in-store experience is much higher than Gen...
Join Nick Cook for Exclusive Military Tech Dinner
The Blind Spot is hosting former aerospace & defence journalist Nick Cook, author of The Hunt for Zero Point, for an exclusive dinner in West London on March 25. Expect conversation on advanced military tech, disclosure developments, audience Q&A, and book...
Inside the CNN‑CBS Merger: Power Shifts and Trump’s Influence
NEW: The CNN–CBS Marriage Plot: • Will Bari Weiss expand her remit? • Who will actually run the network? • How much will David Ellison cut, and how will he cut? • And where does Trump factor in? https://t.co/BuiVS0srnq @PuckNews
German Manufacturing Orders Plunge 11% Amid Green Policies, Sanctions
The WSJ reports that German manufacturing orders fell 11.1% in January compared with the previous month. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA HAVE PROVEN TO BE A DEADLY COCKTAIL FOR GERMANY. https://t.co/sqcs2lQvqA
Denver Airport Illegally Solicited Gift Cards for TSA
Denver Airport Asked Passengers To Drop Off Gift Cards For TSA Screeners — That Is Illegal - View from the Wing https://t.co/xuXYrsYhrJ
GHA Discovery’s Paid Status Match: Underrated Deal
GHA Discovery is offering a paid status match promotion, which could be a great deal. This hotel loyalty program often flies under the radar, but it shouldn't. https://t.co/T5X03Pjogw
1984 Federal Preemption Turned Cable Rights-of-Way Into Monopolies
This. Folks might want to go back and see how localities leveraged access to ROWs for cable to get franchise fees and PEG (and how fed preemption in '84 created cable monopolies with crap service.)
Civilian Tech Now Fuels Military; AI Will Speed It
Up until roughly the 1970s, most civilian technological progress was downstream of military technological progress. The trend has since inverted. Today most of the modern (e.g. Ukraine) military playbook comes from consumer tech from the past two decades. With AI entering...
Escalating War, Markets Unmoved by IEA Oil Release
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
AI Pre-Visit Chat Delivers Concise Summaries for Doctors
A very important prospective (!) study from Google and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center about using AI before a new ambulatory primary care visit. The patient talks with a conversational AI that will summarize every important detail for the physician by...
Iranian Threats Freeze Hormuz Shipping, Spiking Insurance Rates
Last week, shipping ground to a halt due to the threat of attacks based on Iranian past actions. This caused insurance to reset and increase its levels. This week, it is the actual attacks and threats that are holding the ships...
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Halts Global Shipping
Good point. There s no viable workaround for the Strait of Hormuz. Ships and supply chains are at a standstill.
Iran Claims Tanker Attack, Shipping Risks Surge Globally
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement...
Flatbed Rates Surge While Reefer Cools, Van Stays Steady
Spot rate momentum is currently mode-specific: Reefer (slight cooling) - seasonality factors Van- stable Flatbed - very strong https://t.co/1SCZy23TF9
Pierre Fabre, ATRA to Meet FDA on Ebvallo CRL Soon
Pierre Fabre and $ATRA said FDA meeting to discuss the Ebvallo CRL has been scheduled. (Likely occuring within the next month.)
IEA and AfDB Align on African Clean Cooking Priorities
Pleased to host @AfDB_Group President Sidi Ould Tah at @IEA HQ for a discussion on key African energy priorities – including clean cooking & ensuring African countries benefit from their mineral resources Looking forward to working together on @IEA’s Clean Cooking...
Critical EDGAR
The world's most important website is in shambles. What the heck is going on with EDGAR? https://t.co/pKsJXrmAal
Denver Airport Asks Travelers to Tip TSA Amid Shutdown
Amid a partial government shutdown, Denver Airport is asking passengers to bring grocery store and gas station gift cards for TSA agents. While well intentioned, what a sad state of affairs... https://t.co/387QJl1j5T
Flatbed Rates Surge Nationwide After Regional Spike
Flatbed rates continue to firm across the US. A few weeks ago, we saw the rate pops concentrated to the rust belt and Texas. Now we are seeing sharp flatbed rate increases take over most of the country. Map: shows...
After 10 Days, 500M Barrels Loss Seen as Acceptable
10-11 days into this it feels like a good-ish outcome would be getting out of this with only 500 million barrels of lost oil production?
AI RAN Allocates Exact Resources, Eliminating Waste
Ankur Kapoor @TMobile on service-aware RAN. "If you only need X number of physical resource blocks [for the] application you're using, it will automatically allocate you only that. You'll have a fantastic experience, but there'll be no wastage".
Open‑source MCP Servers Give AI Agents Real‑world Call Control
AI agents need hands to get things done. That's exactly what the open-source MCP servers bring to VoipNow. 🧠 AI decides. 🤖 MCP acts. 📞 VoipNow connects it to real communications. Watch the step-by-step installation of the VoipNow MCP servers necessary to connect AI...
U.S. Not Ready to Escort Tankers Through Hormuz
Energy Secretary Wright says U.S. ‘not ready’ to escort tankers through Strait of Hormuz yet. CNBC
Eleven Nations Seek Ukraine's Aid Against Shahed Drones
Interesting interview with Oleksandr Kamyshin. He says 11 countries in the Middle East, Europe, and U.S.A have requested official assistance for Shaheds recently. Also Ukraine offered last year.
Oman's 0.7 Mb/D Oil Exports Risk Disruption
Another problem if Oman's ~0.7 Mb/d of oil exports are also interrupted even though outside Hormuz
FDA Cracks Down on Misleading GLP‑1 Telehealth Marketing
The FDA is targeting telehealth marketing of GLP-1 drugs. Who’s prescribing them? Medical groups face ‘tricky’ questions when partners make misleading claims via @KatieMPalmer https://t.co/pf4Fwa7W7r