Automation Protects Human Judgment, Not Replaces It
One of the sharpest thoughts I’ve heard about AI did not come from a founder, consultant, or conference speaker. It came from a Ryanair pilot I train BJJ with. He said that in aviation, automation is not there to replace human judgment, but to protect it. I think that is true far beyond aviation. Good automation does not compete with people for the right to think. It clears noise, friction, and overload so real thinking remains possible.
Crude Spot Markets Reach Unprecedented Tightness, Spreads Near Whole Dollars
It's not a great sign when you start simply rounding crude timespreads to the nearest full dollar per barrel Brent prompt spread at $10/bbl, WTI at $14, Dubai at $17 (we normally talk about term structure in cents...) Crude oil spot markets have...
Memory Supply Chain Faces Growing Constraints, Market Unaware
The memory point is not the only interesting comment here, but we have had a range of supply chain chats on memory, and I don't think the market fully grasps what's coming. We are stacking constraints at this point. This...
War's End Determines Brent Spot vs Futures Direction
This is the spot Brent oil price (white), the Brent March futures that just expired this week (orange), the current Brent June futures (yellow) and WTI (green). If war ends quickly, white converges down to yellow. If war drags on,...
Easter 2027 Promises Double Jesus Resurrection at Box Office
Just fitting that it’s been revealed on #GoodFriday that we will have a #Jesus double bill at US #BoxOffice, very likely, on #Easter 2027. Series #TheChosen Season 6 will hit #PrimeVideo from NOV 15 till DEC 6. But its Finale will...
China's Energy Storage Boom: Watch Inventory Data
China's energy storage market is booming. One Chinese analyst thinks you should look at the inventory data . Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/ck3zk49kBX https://t.co/sA0TPeUWMc
Planetary Society Warns FY2027 NASA Science Cuts
Statement from The Planetary Society about the new FY2027 proposed budget cuts to NASA's science programs: https://t.co/qDYyJ2dGOB
Trump Targets NIH Funding Amid $1.5T War Spend
Trump once again going for draconian cuts to NIH, though not as catastrophic as he sought for the last round (and didn't get). Meanwhile, he wants $1.5T for war. I doubt he'll be any more successful with NIH cuts than...
New WRTV-ABC Owner Faces Calls for Apology
Great, so where does @wrtv-ABC's new owner DuJuan McCoy go for an apology, @jstewartIndy, @AGomezFCC?
Truckers Leverage Pricing Power, Spot Rates Outpace Fuel Costs
Lots of questions about whether the surge in diesel is the reason trucking spot rates are also surging. First off, truckers are able to pass off the increased cost of fuel because they have pricing power. This is caused by...
Bernie Sanders' First‑class Seat Given to Aide
First Class Passenger Next To Bernie Sanders Downgraded To Coach Middle — Then An Aide Took The Seat - View from the Wing https://t.co/qK0cDV0O3A
China Releases Draft Ethical Review Guidelines for AI
Notice from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments on Issuing the "Trial Measures for Ethical Review and Service of Artificial Intelligence Technology" https://t.co/S6lAEoicuu https://t.co/rf6ZaQxqZY
Frontier AI Halves Expert Task Time, 5.7‑month Doubling
Here’s an independent domain extension of METR’s famous time-horizon analysis, applying it to offensive cybersecurity with real human expert timing data Similar to METR: 5.7 months doubling time. Frontier models now succeed 50% of the time at tasks that take human...
Russia Tested Its Own Drone Line Initiative Last Year
.@kriegsforscherD and I have a new post about Russia's experiment with its own Drone Line initiative and employment of UAS from last year. https://t.co/XCslVa4HzU
Engineer Gave Away Billion-Dollar Invention, Reshaping the World
In 1959, a Swedish engineer at Volvo patented what would become one of the greatest inventions of all time Volvo stood to make billions. But after a meeting with Volvo's President, he decided to give it away for free -...
MrBeast’s Head of Virality Shares My Uncommon Surname
TIL that @MrBeast has a "Head Of Virality," and his name is Chucky APPLEBY. Our last name is nottt terribly common... and we both work in content & virality... SOMEONE FIND ME MY LONG LOST BROTHER. https://t.co/7NS7hZpmLG
Live Deep Dive: Notch vs DLSS and GPU Hardware
I wanted to use Notch's criticism of DLSS to talk a little bit about GPU hardware, so I did an impromptu livestream last night. VOD is here if you're curious: https://t.co/rqlLnjNvmi
China Unveils Imaginative Robotic Beasts
Engineering Meets Imagination: China’s #Robotic Beasts Take Shape by @China_Fact #Robotics #MachineLearning #ArtificialIntelligence #ML https://t.co/1JwCNWkoIm
FAA Issues Certification Conditions for ZeroAvia’s Hydrogen‑Electric Powertrain
ZeroAvia has this week celebrated a “major step” towards certification of its ZA600 hydrogen-electric powertrain, after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration published special conditions to certify the system’s electric engine component. https://t.co/rtB9kLHKnG #GreenWing
Meta Ads Hit Record Low Performance, No Outage
I'm not one to talk ad performance on Meta but yesterday may have been the worst performance day I've seen on Meta in a long time that wasn't involving an outage. Confirmed now with multiple others.
Acquisitions Often Driven by Ego, Not Strategy
What if the OpenAI-buying-TBPN deal is not a signal of anything but just the egos involved, similar to CBS buying The Free Press? Because-they-can sometimes is the simplest, best and the real explanation.
I’m Building My Own Media System, Not for Founders
I’m not building a media system “for founders” as the starting point. I’m building it for myself. Because I want my own products to grow through a real system around: signals, scripts, UGC, content workflows, memory, and distribution. But I think other founders will be able to take pieces...
Fuel Crisis Pushes Indonesia Toward Perilous Policy Trade‑offs
A terrific piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @sdjaffrey on how the fuel crisis is forcing politically perilous trade-offs in Indonesia. As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation,...
Target 150bp Yield Spread Over Market Cap
How private equity firms analyze deals: Most important metrics: 1. Stabilized cap rate (yield): Since we focus on value add, the entry cap doesn’t matter much, as long as we can service our debt The stabilized yield matters because it shows the intrinsic...
Iran Claims Hit on US Rescue Helicopter Searching for Pilot
Iran says it struck a US helicopter on search & rescue mission for downed F-15 fighter jet pilot.
World Witnesses US Combat Rescue's High‑Risk Operation
Today the world sees the gigantic balls U.S. combat search and rescue has. Extremely high risk operation we hoped we wouldn’t have to see.
Three Artemis‑II Cubesats Show Successful Perigee‑Raise Burn
Three of the four Artemis-II cubesats have now been cataloged; orbits are 149 x 70247 km, 492 x 70228 km, and 61 x 70276 km. Suggests at least one made a successful perigee raising burn, but waiting for more data...
Iran's Oil Revenues Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
US Fighter Jet Downed over Iran; Rescue Underway
U.S. fighter jet shot down in Iran, search and rescue operations underway for crew — Axios
Global Trade at Crossroads: Autonomy Replaces Win‑Win
#tradeXpresso: Global trade is at a crossroads. Tariffs 📈. Weaponised dependencies. Collapsing WTO norms. The win-win logic is replaced by strategic autonomy & zero-sum thinking. Three futures for global trade. Which path are we on? https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb #TradePolicy30 https://t.co/2eDwAvKjMM
Streaming's Financial Bubble Predicts AI Labor Debates
I remember during the strikes where actors and writers wanted more money, I pointed out that streaming was in a bubble and was already unsustainable without raising costs by paying the talent more. People were really upset with me for not...
Sheveluch Eruption Forces Temporary Asia‑North America Freight Diversions
The Sheveluch Volcano in Kamchatka Peninsula causing flight diversions on Asia to North America air freight routes. Expected to be temporary, mostly just sharing bc I like volcanos. https://t.co/06aAWpuJCr
Jobs, Not Free Rides, End NYC Dependency
Free rides are nice. Know what’s better? A job that makes the ride irrelevant. NYC decided subsidizing the symptom is easier than fixing the system. Cheaper politics, more expensive outcomes. Imagine if we created pathways to income instead of permanent dependency on...
Cover Art Triggers Impulse Buys Despite Low Ratings
Seeing a jewel case on the shelf with anime cover art for a game I've never heard of and deciding it's an absolute must-buy even though it's a 6.5/10 at best.
Health Insurance Waiting Periods: An Unjust, Normalized Scam
Waiting periods for health insurance is such a scam. Where else is it normalized for you to pay for something you can’t actually use for months?
F‑117 Downed, War Unchanged; Rescue Crew Now Priority
Serbia shot down an F-117 in 1999. That didn’t change the outcome of Allied Force. I hope the pilot and WSO are alive and can be extracted soon. Beyond that, it’s one aircraft.
Low Promotion, High Churn, Substack Still Boosts Revenue
yep; I almost never share my Substack link and yet revenue from Substack increased ~80% YoY and is now ~20% of my overall revenue. Even if churn is high, I have no doubt that it has been certainly net positive...
China Solar Cell Prices Drop Third Week Amid Cost Easing
China solar cell prices fall for third consecutive week as upstream costs ease #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/Oawb2A3W9W
Manual Counts Cause Shutdowns; Automate Inventory Management
Warehouses battle inaccuracies with manual cycle counts and annual physical inventories. These time-consuming shutdowns require all hands on deck, highlighting the need for efficient inventory management. #WarehouseManagement #Inventory https://t.co/0mOkHp34Rc
World’s Largest LNG Export Plant Offline for a Month
The world’s biggest LNG export plant has been offline for a month 🚢 ⚠️ Let me explain why you should care about that 👇 https://t.co/Ywo3ZK9mac
Wars Boost US Freight Demand and Economy
Unpopular opinion. Wars are good for the American economy. Freight demand across all modes is ripping and firming up in recent weeks. https://t.co/RUvpTXWcFl
Semiconductor Industry Faces Tighter DUV Limits and Talent
Latest: Tighter restrictions on DUV litho; Arm-IBM dual-architecture; power device trio; Irish fab; 1.4nm AI chip; heat islands; 2nm & below; 300mm fab equipment; 67k IC jobs unfilled; HBF wins; photonic chip packaging.. https://t.co/hPeWF8CmnV #semiconductor #2nm #1nm #HBF
China's South China Sea Base Threatens the Philippines
China. Looking to build military base in South China Sea where they have forced run-ins with The Philippines. A threat to whom?
Builders’ Rate Cuts Mask Deeper Housing Supply Misalignment
If it weren't the builders paying down rates, housing permits would be worse today. We will never build housing the way people want because we aren't a supply-first economy; the demand curve needs to align with it, and rental vacancies...
Rail Carloads Jump 4.2% Amid Broad Freight Surge
Freight volume surge is not just a trucking story. Industrials are ripping across traffic modes Rail carload traffic +4.2% YoY The recent traffic strength has caught rail execs off guard which expected a down to flat year. https://t.co/a6UpG8CwWp
Operationalize AI: From Pilot to Organizational Core
AI is no longer a side project. It’s becoming the operating system of modern organizations ⚡ But most companies are still stuck between pilots and real impact. Here’s an updated framework to build a truly AI-driven organization: 🎯 1. Set...
Inside the Real Work of Investment Bankers Daily
NEW ODD LOTS: This is what investment bankers actually do all day. @tracyalloway and I talk to Scott Bok, former longtime CEO of Greenhill & Co, to understand better what the industry does and why companies pay up for their services https://t.co/bLORIQJ8Oq
AI Is Reshaping Legal Research, Resistance Inevitable
“Al is already changing how legal information is accessed and applied at scale. The only real question was whether that shift would be resisted or structured” 👀 https://t.co/iu12fpk15G
BritBox Success Reshapes Global British TV Strategy
BritBox CEO on How Success for BBC Studios’ U.S. Streamer Is Impacting Global British TV Strategy https://t.co/c96KZwHUp6 via @variety