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Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer

The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and convert it into urea. Urea is a natural gas-based fertilizer made primarily of nitrogen that you can spread in physical form, whether pellets or ground powder. This one facility in Qatar is responsible for about 11% of global urea production, the primary method that people use to apply nitrogen. Collectively, the Persian Gulf is responsible for between 30 and 35% of global ammonia production. And all of that has now gone to zero. Now, of the three primary fertilizer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), nitrogen is the one I am least concerned with in the short term, because it can be derived from either natural gas itself or oil. Here in the United States, we are a net oil exporter, have scads of natural gas, and can produce pretty much all the nitrogen we need. But now, due to recent attacks on Persian Gulf infrastructure, a large majority of the globe cannot do the same. In the short term - in the U.S. - we're likely to avoid massive shortages of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Yes, prices will rise, but we won't have actual shortages. But if you fast forward one, two, three, ten, or twenty years, the rest of the world will be in chronic nitrogen deficit. That's before you consider shortages of the other materials that are likely to manifest in the years to come. So, prepare for an environment where global food production stalls...and then crashes. #agriculture #farming #fertilizer #geopolitics