US Oil Imports Rebound to 1990 Levels, 2 M Bpd
US is still a net importer of about 2 million barrels per day of oil, roughly back to 1990 levels. https://t.co/p77J48rR7V
Over 400 Voting-Related Lawsuits Currently Active Nationwide
Here is what the Democracy Docket team is tracking today: Active Voting Rights Cases: 167 Active Redistricting Cases: 50 Active Anti-Voting Cases: 91 Active Pro-Voting Cases: 73 Active DOJ Lawsuits: 32 Support their work by subscribing today. bit.ly/4qmEiFz
Homebuyer Demand Index Slightly Up, Still Near Historic Lows
Reventure's homebuyer demand index inched up this week to a 9/100. This index tracks pending sales, mortgage apps, internet searches for real estate, and buyer sentiment. A "normal" reading on the index is 50, a level which we saw before the pandemic. Note...
Iran Opens Hormuz to Indian Tankers, Shifts Trade Route
"Indian Source Says Iran to Allow India-Flagged Tankers Through Hormuz as First Tanker Arrives" Looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be the new Bab el-Mandeb 🍻 https://t.co/370QXTDJC2
Higher Fuel Costs Crush Carrier Margins, Boost Brokers
I agree with this analysis. The gross spot rate that brokers are paying is stable, but the calculated net minus fuel (i.e. carrier margins) is getting crushed due to the surge of fuel prices. Paradoxically, higher fuel costs are...
Simon Peckham Reverses Trend, Investing in UK Businesses
London’s capital markets have been dominated by overseas firms snapping up UK businesses. Simon Peckham is pushing in the other direction. https://t.co/8UIULznzFQ
Finns Show Highest Defense Willingness in Europe
Finns’ willingness to defend their country also polls far higher than in most other countries, especially in Europe https://t.co/k9rSYzOhx1 via @liamdenning @loupalu @opinion https://t.co/cBY7bL9hp4
Costco Shoppers File Class Action for Tariff Refunds
Costco customers are joining a class action lawsuit against the company demanding their share of tariff refunds. Expect more lawsuits like this against other major retailers.
AI Data Demand Will Outpace US Spectrum by 2029
"without additional licensed spectrum, a third of data traffic from AI-enabled devices is projected to go unmet by 2029, undermining U.S. competitiveness in next-generation technologies." via @CTIA https://t.co/k9gWeYKA9j
Deutsche Bank Repeats Risky Credit Expansion Despite Past Missteps
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
MEG Shut-In Hurts Tankers, Fuels Oil Rally, SPY Overbought
Full shut-in of the MEG (AG) is obviously bearish for short- mid-term #tanker markers. The tanker stocks are betting this lasts *months*. Oil is partially reflecting, but $SPY is wildly bloated. Trade: -Bullish oil firms: $KOS -Mega bearish $SPY -Holding key tankers: $DHT $STNG
Innovators Unite to Advance ACORD and DTCC Data Standards
Technology data standards ACORD and The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) - A group of innovators: Yolanda Austin, Ken Leibow, Stephen Kilbon, Megan Cahill, Lisa Cavaliere, Patti Elliott, Jon Volper, Bali Bodeddula
New Deterrent Outshines Nukes, Redefining Global Power
Disagree. They have shown themselves and the world they have a solid deterrent, tbh. A nuke isn’t anywhere as usable as the deterrent they now provably possess and can improve on, and does not come with problems and existential fears of...
Hapag Lloyd Ship Hit in Hormuz, Crew Safe
The Hapag Lloyd container ship Source Blessing was hit by projectile fragments in the straight of Hormuz earlier today. Hapag reports that it was not a direct hit, all crew are safe, and they have extinguished the fire on...
Focus Features' 17‑day Windows Crush Indie Theatrical Releases
One of the things you guys are missing in the news: Focus Features windows stay at 17 DAYS This is why smaller films are getting BULLDOZED They already don’t demand theatrical viewing and here you are dumping them on streaming in less...
CEOs' Inaction Cost Theaters; Universal Extends Windows
This Universal-extending-windows news is fantastic for theaters but your lazy CEOs at the theatrical chains who did not DEMAND THEM back in 2023 when there was LEVERAGE is UNFORGIVABLE That temerity cost many theaters their existence
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Economy Across All Sectors
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Oil Surge Drives Canadian Mortgage Rates Above 4%
Mortgage Rates Go Up: As The Price Of Oil Goes Up So Do Mortgage Rates Unless the War In The Middle East ends quickly we will soon see most Mortgage Rates in Canada start with a 4 And ZERO chance of Bank...
Tesla FSD's First Cannonball Run Shows Driving's Future
The BTS of the 1st successful Tesla FSD Cannonball Run, and my take on the future of human driving. https://t.co/nmJtF5Cw0S
Unimpeded Tankers: Heading to China or Beyond Seiz
Would like to understand why these tankers are sailing unimpeded. Is it that they are going to China? Is it physically impossible to commandeer these ships like with Venezuela?
Oil Likely Tops Soon; Expect Retracement to $98‑$110
$USOIL - As I've already stated I think that a major top is already in, but whenever a commodity goes parabolic, it usually doesn't collapse in a straight line, but retraces a significant portion of the initial decline. The upside...
Coercive A&E Dominates $38B Software Maturity Market
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
Energy Efficiency and Domestic Production Boost U.S. Resilience
Summary of my argument: "Decades of investment in efficiency, domestic production, and renewable energy have made the U.S. economy far more resilient to global shocks." Therefore, let's keep implementing those energy policies --now is the worst time to give up on efficiency,...
OBDC's 25% NAV Discount Highlights Stale Marks
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...
Oil Near Record Close Despite Falling Short of Early Highs
Oil is still well below its highs from the extreme buying that we saw early Monday morning. But if it closed here for the day, it'd be its highest close yet.
China Poised to Join War Debate Soon
Looks like #China is about ready to enter the discussion on the War. You figured that was coming.....
Demand for Proof: Nuclear Build Not $9.3B Impact
I want to see a report demonstrating that the “construction phase” of a new nuclear power plant will NOT involve anywhere near $9.3 billion in “economic impact.”
UK Releases 2024 Estimate of North Sea Oil‑Gas Reserves
UK government estimates from 2024 of remaining oil & gas resources in the N. Sea posted today. Source: https://t.co/MdBiDA5rEo https://t.co/UWUhPViK5S
RFK Jr Promotes Unproven Peptides, BPC‑157 Lacks Solid Data
RFK Jr is trying to get 14 peptides, without data on safety or efficacy, licensed and approved by FDA. His favorite is BPC-157. "Only three small human studies of BPC-157 exist, for instance, the largest of which is a telephone...
Young Adult Homeownership Halved, Dream Becomes Elusive
She's not wrong. One reason "we're in trouble" is young adult access to the American Dream is so diminished--as evidenced, for instance, by this decline in home ownership.👇🏽 ✔️ 1980: 59% of young adults owned a home ✔️Now: 37% of young adults...
AI Amplifies Both Threats and Defenses in Cybersecurity
I got asked on the news today is Cybersecurity a field that is being impacted by AI or is it a safe field? I explained how I struggle with this personally as well - there's a lot of fear, uncertainty and...
Call for Federal Men’s Health Office Gains Momentum
Yup, as Dr Bernie says, public health is not a zero-sum game, need a focus on women's AND men's health/ Momentum builds for a federal office of men’s health focused on disease prevention https://t.co/ONPLMEzKWv via @statnews https://t.co/ASKuoMrJSO
Navy Unprepared Despite Promises, Takes Over a Month
I was assured by numerous naval sources that the Navy would be ready. I didn’t think the Navy would be ready. But I did think it would take less than a full month.
Switch to Clean Electricity to Avoid Future Energy Crises
The impact of the war in the Middle East on energy: We should fix the roof when the sun is shining not when there's a thunderstorm. Only when we shift energy demand from burning fuels to using electricity from clean power...
Danes Revel in Noma Founder Scandal, Media Glee
There's nothing the Danes love more than a good fall-from-grace story, so now that Noma's founder has been speared on decade-old accusations, the sanctimonious journalists at Politiken can hardly contain their glee and excitement. Yuck. https://t.co/01Bx0fKkHJ
Money and Relevance Fuel Endless Problem‑agitating Content
Spot on about clicks and views. That has been the conclusion I've reached after being closely involved in that space for almost a decade. The incentives are money and social relevance, which means that their content CAN'T actually solve the problem—it has...
Healthcare Costs Forcing Debt, Hunger, and Retirement Delays
Such a dismal conclusion. Taking on debt, skipping meals, delaying retirement, etc, etc, in order to cover healthcare costs. When does America come to grips with healthcare costs? Something has to give. https://t.co/L48u4W2CDG
Step‑up Basis Wipes Out Taxes on Inherited Gains
Step up in basis is one of the most powerful tax provisions and can wipe out a lot of taxes. Say your dad bought $200k of stocks in a brokerage account that are now worth $2M. He passes them down to you...
Single‑Family Homes Grow $3M, Not $100M
Buying single family homes is a great way to be with $3m. Brutal way to try to hit $50m or $100m+.
Build-to-Rent Criticism Stems From Misunderstanding Its Purpose
A lot of the criticism about build-to-rent on this app is grounded in ignorance about what BTR is, who builds it, who funds it, who lives in it, and why it's appealing to the small share of families who choose...
Housing Market Set to Grow if Rates Stay Steady
#Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaAFKo
Bezos Hosts Washington Post Masthead at Kalorama
tidbit: Jeff Bezos is planning to meet with the Washington Post masthead and some highly sought after reporters at his Kalorama mansion this morning/afternoon
GenAI Health Tools Multiply: ChatGPT, Claude, CoPilot
In January there was ChatGPT Health, Claude Health. Today there's Microsoft CoPilot Health. And more to come in the genAI -> health landscape https://t.co/TInH9YTvwA
Prediction Markets See WTI Futures Still Rising
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
Carriers Redefine Red Sea Disruption as Permanent Shift
Maersk. Treating the Strait as a long-term situation. The length of the war. How it ends? Iran’s position? Undoing the ship mess in the Strait and Persian Gulf?
AI Boom Fueled by Hundreds of Hidden Taiwanese Suppliers
Everyone talks about Nvidia and TSMC. But the AI boom is actually powered by hundreds of Taiwanese companies most people have never heard of. I built a massive list of the Taiwanese suppliers riding the AI wave. Only at Culpium. https://t.co/KUpxDMev6I
Disruption at Oman, UAE Oil Ports Could Spike Prices
All eyes & hopes rest on the 2 main oil ports of #MinaAlFahal in Oman and #Fujeirah in UAE if any of these continues to be impacted then it's serious for oil prices. ميناء_الفحل #ميناء_الفجيرة#
Korea’s March Exports Show Semiconductor Supply Still Robust
Korea btw posted strong exports for the first 10 days of March, so the semi-trade is NOT disrupted yet, and this notion that Helium is running out for Hynix and TSMC is so far 100% BS as they have 5-6...
AI Job Shock Could Threaten 10% of Australian Mortgages
When AI Hits Jobs: Macquarie Warns Mortgage Stress Could Ripple Through Australia's Banks AI-driven employment shocks could put 10% of mortgage payments at risk. Banks currently priced for "near-perfect outcomes" with minimal buffer. Australia's steady growth masks historical unemployment spikes: 11%...
Binary Labels Mask the Strait’s Complex Phases
At some point (idk when) "the Strait is closed/open" is going to be a bit like "we shut down/reopened the economy for covid" -- a binary that glosses over various phases of the process.