TMTB Morning Wrap
OpenAI disclosed it now targets roughly $600 billion in compute spend through 2030, a revision from the earlier $1.4 trillion infrastructure commitment that blended CAPEX and OPEX. The company’s push for additional AI‑compute power is hampered by the stalled Stargate joint venture with Oracle and SoftBank, which remains unfunded and leaderless. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo upgraded Alphabet to overweight and raised its price target to $387, citing Google’s aggressive AI‑compute capacity expansion. Together, these moves highlight a tightening race for AI infrastructure and capital allocation.
Nebius Price Target Lifted to $232 on $5.4B ARR Outlook
Nebius Group $NBIS price tgt raised to $232 at Northland Conservatively raising CY26 ending ARR estimate to $5.4B from $4B on strong 4Q25 incremental ARR and low end of CY26 capex plans. While we are not changing our...
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Tungsten Crunch Can Be Fixed Before Prices Spike Further: BMO
BMO Global Commodities Research warns that tungsten prices have surged fivefold in the past year as chronic under‑investment and tightening Chinese supply create a looming shortage. With China providing about 75% of global output, ore‑grade declines, environmental limits and export...
Fed Waller, Durable Goods Data Set Up Market Swing
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – Feb 23, 2026 🚨 🧠 Macro Headline: Markets digest Fed Waller + key U.S. data with durable goods and factory orders in focus. Growth vs slowdown narrative still in play. 📅 Economic Events: • 0800 – Fed’s Waller speaks •...
Avoid IDFC and UPL; Lower Circuits Signal Further Drops
🚨 2 Biggest Accident of the day 🚨 Hit Lower circuit in 2 stocks 🔻 1) IDFC first bank Ltd. (-16%) Down 2) UPL Ltd. (-14%) Down - IDFC first bank stock hit lower circuit due to fraud case of ₹590 Cr. -...
European ETF Market Wrap: Flows, Performance and Leaders | Week 8, 2026
European equity ETFs recorded a record €7.69 billion net inflow during the week of 16‑20 February, dwarfing all other asset classes. Materials and Industrials led sector inflows, while Financials suffered the largest outflow at €382 million. Geographic flows were dominated by Developed Markets,...
CNBC Moderator Pushes Conflict‑ridded Versus Warner Trade
Another beaut from @JoeSquawk . @SquawkCNBC Only on Fin TV can a moderator who works for a company (in this case Versant Media Group $VSNT (parent of CNBC)) suggest a pairs trade of being long Versant and short Warner....
Tariff Shock Sparks Bitcoin Drop, Metals Rally
Last weeks tariff news still has ripples reverberating through. While the volatility hit Bitcoin as yesterday saw 65k fall through. $NVO comes up short in a head to head trial with $LLY while the Gold and Silver trade looking like...
When Is the Spring Statement and What Might Be in It?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the UK Spring Statement on 3 March 2026, presenting the latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecasts. The OBR outlook on growth, inflation, unemployment and public finances will be published after the speech via the...
Temperament Trumps IQ in Investing Success
Warren Buffett: “Success in investing doesn’t correlate with IQ once you’re above a certain level.” Takeaway: Temperament outweighs raw intelligence. Most investors don’t fail from low IQ — they fail from low discipline. 📉
Waller Says March Rate Move Hinges on Feb Payroll
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
Australians Are Stuck in a Low Income Growth Trap
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
It Can Be Easier to Fall Victim to Fraud on Mobile than Desktop
Phishing emails that look authentic on a desktop become far harder to spot on mobile devices, increasing the chance of credential theft. The author received a Vanguard‑style phishing message where the sender’s email address was hidden and the link text...
It’s a Buyer’s Market: America Has 44% More Home Sellers Than Buyers—A Near-Record Gap
In January 2026 the U.S. housing market recorded a near‑record imbalance, with 44% more home sellers than buyers – roughly 600,000 excess listings. This buyer’s market, defined by a gap exceeding 10%, has persisted since May 2024 and follows a...
Global Buyout Firms Face Exit Challenges in China
Major private‑equity firms such as KKR, Blackstone and CVC reported no publicly disclosed full exits from mainland Chinese portfolio companies in 2025. The exit drought reflects strained liquidity, higher interest rates and depressed valuations that have throttled deal activity. While...
Indian DAP Stocks Fall Again in January
Indian DAP stocks slipped to just under 1.9 million tonnes in January, marking the fourth consecutive monthly draw. Imports plunged to 70,000 t while domestic production held steady at 342,000 t, and sales rose to 535,000 t, outpacing the three‑year average. Despite the short‑term...
Bharti Airtel Shares to Be in Focus After ₹20,000 Crore Capital Infusion in NBFC Arm Airtel Money
Bharti Airtel announced a ₹20,000 crore capital infusion into its non‑banking financial company arm, Airtel Money, to accelerate its digital finance push. The funding is expected to expand the company’s payments, credit and savings offerings across its telecom customer base. Following...
Thailand’s Hotel Reality Check: More Rooms, Tougher Competition
Thailand’s hotel sector is adding 43,067 rooms through 167 projects, with Bangkok, Phuket and Pattaya leading the pipeline. While demand continues to recover, supply growth now exceeds demand in many periods, tightening occupancy and ADR prospects. Luxury developments such as...
Uganda to Link New Railway Line to Tanzania, Opening up New Export Route
Uganda announced plans to connect its new standard gauge railway to Tanzania’s under‑construction rail network. The line would run from the Tanzania border through southwestern Uganda to Mpondwe on the DRC frontier, linking mineral‑rich regions to the port of Dar...
FRPT: Thinking Long Term To Beat Wall Street
Freshpet reported Q4 2025 earnings, with shares slipping nearly 4% as Wall Street focuses on slowing sales growth. The company highlighted an expanding pet‑parent market, now 36 million households, and its 4% share of the $38 billion dog‑food sector. Core “MVP” customers—2.4 million...
Analysts Overstate Global Copper Supply by Ignoring Strategic Reserves
I am seeing many market analysts include the accumulated copper stockpiles in the US in their global balance of copper stockpiles and therefore conclude that there are >1 million tonnes of available copper in global stockpiles today. I am not...
Dollar's Dominance Will Persist Despite Trumpian Challenges
Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His...
Comment Letter on Nasdaq’s Proposed Additional Initial Listing Criteria for Companies Primarily Operating in China
The Council of Institutional Investors (CII) submitted a comment letter backing Nasdaq’s proposed rule that adds initial listing criteria for Chinese micro‑cap companies, including a $25 million minimum proceeds requirement. CII applauds the effort to curb abnormal trading in the smallest...
Warsh Chairmanship Could Push Mortgage Rates Near Zero
How low can mortgage rates go with tariff ruling and Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair? https://t.co/eEzHs3zcYh
USD Stays Flat Post‑SCOTUS, Defying Tariff‑Driven Drops
Big moves in currencies are made one small move at a time. The fact that USD didn't rally substantially after the SCOTUS decision is remarkable. After all, it fell a lot when reciprocal tariffs hit, so the fact that it...
Why Are Amphenol, Royal Caribbean, and Freeport Insiders Selling?
Insiders at Amphenol, Royal Caribbean, and Freeport‑McMoRan have sold multi‑million‑dollar stock positions despite recent price rallies. Amphenol CEO Adam Norwitt sold about $76 million after exercising options, yet retains roughly 2.8 million shares. Royal Caribbean executives collectively off‑loaded more than $168 million, including...
Waller's March Cut Unlikely; FOMC Odds Near Zero
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Colombia, Chile, South Korea Lead 2026 Emerging Market Inflows
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
Optiver and Virtu-Backed Optimal Market Technologies Options Execution Platform Launches
Optimal Market Technologies has launched a US listed options execution platform backed by Optiver, Virtu Financial, Akuna Capital and BSC Ventures. The FINRA‑approved broker‑dealer expects commercial availability later in Q1, initially serving retail options wholesalers, institutional broker‑dealers and large asset...
Short‑term Tariffs Won’t Drive Multi‑year Investment
A tariff that expires in 150 days isn’t a long-run industrial policy. Firms invest on multi-year horizons. If the policy is temporary, the investment response will be, too: mostly none. (This was recorded when the tariff rate was 10%; it's...
1970s Balance‑of‑Payments Deficit Returns Under Trump
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
Livestock Insurance Subsidy Harvest Costs More Than Direct Payments
New @nberpubs: "A Theory of Subsidy Harvesting in Livestock Price Insurance" https://t.co/a2BTA7aoME "The subsidy harvest is a pure rent and costlier than a direct payment because it requires administrative oversight and federally-subsidized delivery" https://t.co/gmAA7SjVyG
The Global Week Ahead
The Mexican army killed CJNG boss "El Mencho" near Puerto Vallarta, triggering fierce gun battles and an unprecedented U.S. military task‑force partnership. President Trump announced a new 15% tariff regime under Section 122, but it can only stay in effect for...
Local Content Rules Halve EV Subsidy Effectiveness
New @nberpubs: "Industrial Policies for Multi-Stage Production: The Battle for Battery-Powered Vehicles" https://t.co/DX6XB7e1R0 "local content requirements... drive up costs and reduce subsidy uptake, undoing more than half of the EV adoption stimulus coming from pure buyer subsidies" 😲
The FIRE Movement Is So Back Thanks To AI Disruption
The FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement, born from the 2008‑2009 crisis, surged during COVID‑19 and then waned as remote work became mainstream. In 2024‑2025 large firms began re‑imposing in‑office mandates while pouring billions into AI, prompting massive productivity gains...
Weekly Market Signals Beat SPX Six Weeks Straight
The Weekly Market Signals have outperformed $SPX for 6 weeks. +3.3% YTD (no leverage). https://t.co/WO1W4p4jFI $SPY $TLT $GLD $DBC $VEU $IEF $UUP
Waller Speaks as US Activity and Orders Dip
Economic calendar for Mon. Feb 23. 8:00am - Fed’s Waller speaks 8:30 - Chicago National Activity Index for December: Expected -0.08; Prior -0.04 10:00 - Factory orders m/m for December: Expected -0.6%; Prior 2.7%
4 Trade Ideas for Merck: Bonus Idea
Merck (MRK) is consolidating under resistance around $123 within a six‑month uptrend, with bullish RSI, positive MACD and low 1.2% short interest. The stock offers a 2.78% dividend yield and will trade ex‑dividend on March 16, while earnings are slated for...
Stock Movers: Gilead Sciences, Merck, Domino's (Podcast)
On Feb 23, 2026, Gilead Sciences announced a cash deal to acquire biotech Arcellx for up to $7.8 billion, aiming to broaden its oncology portfolio. Merck & Co. is reportedly preparing to split its pharmaceutical division into separate cancer and non‑cancer units ahead...
Live on Fox Business: Market & Tariff Outlook
I'll be on @FoxBusiness this morning with @MariaBartiromo today at 7:10 am EST, talking markets, recent tariff developments & what's in store
Dollar Holds Despite Weak GDP, Falters in Asia
When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done: The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure...
PGAV Establishes Strategic Global Presence Led by John Kasman
PGAV, a leading destination‑design firm, is establishing a dedicated international hub in Abu Dhabi to serve the fast‑growing immersive tourism markets of the Middle East and China. The expansion, overseen by principal John Kasman, builds on longstanding client relationships and...
Domino's Gained More Market Share Last Year
Domino’s reported a stronger‑than‑expected 2025, with U.S. same‑store sales climbing 3.7% and a one‑point gain in market share that lifted its pizza‑category share to 30%. The earnings beat sent the stock up about 5% in pre‑market trading. The company added...
Armenia’s Not Getting Off the Struggle Bus Just Yet
Armenia’s aging Soviet‑era nuclear reactor leaves the country on the brink of an energy crisis, and Moscow’s dwindling support after the Ukraine war has removed its traditional security backstop. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance recently signed a nuclear cooperation deal...
The Long Telegram Just Turned 80. Our Times Demand a New One.
The Atlantic Council’s Frederick Kempe marks the 80th anniversary of George Kennan’s Long Telegram, arguing that today’s geopolitical turbulence demands a comparable strategic blueprint. He highlights a simultaneous great‑power contest involving Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s assertiveness around Taiwan, and an...
USD Holds Steady Amid Volatility and Holiday Closures
Some volatility, yes, but net-net the $USD is little changed from the it settled at the end of last week. It was initially marked lower but is nearly flat now. Japan mkt were closed for a holiday, while a...
Armenia’s Landlocked Neighbors Limit Post‑Soviet Choices
Armenia’s landlocked position between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran has left Yerevan with few good options in the post-Soviet world. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/ZWXi1Pbh4h #armenia #geopolitics https://t.co/un8RUyVDaW
Renewed Sense of Confidence Feeds Through Into eBay Q4 2025 Earnings
eBay reported a full‑year GMV of roughly $80 billion, up 6% globally and nearly 10% in the United States, marking a return to double‑digit growth. Focus categories such as fashion and refurbished tech drove over 12% GMV expansion and now account...
How Is This Possible?
The episode dissects Tripadvisor’s shocking Q4 FY25 results, which sent the stock tumbling below $10—a historic low—following a 2025 merger that eliminated a controlling shareholder. Host examines activist investor Jeff Smith’s aggressive push for strategic change, highlighted by his pointed...