Pro Farmer Podcast | What's Next for the Dollar?
In the February 2 2026 episode of the Pro Farmer Podcast, host Davis Michaelsen and guest Bill Watts dissect the recent turbulence in the U.S. dollar and its ripple effects on precious‑metal markets. They attribute the dollar’s swings to shifting Federal Reserve expectations, geopolitical tensions, and divergent global growth outlooks. The discussion highlights how a weaker dollar fuels demand for gold and silver as inflation hedges, while also raising the cost of agricultural inputs priced in foreign currencies. Listeners receive actionable insight into navigating currency risk in farming operations.
Scarce Reserves
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh is pushing to restart quantitative tightening, signaling a shift toward shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet. This move comes even as the Fed recently expanded its holdings to ease strains in the funding market. Warsh’s...
Markets Say “Wrong Kevin”, Xiaomi & Ford Could Partner Up
Asian equity markets slumped after President‑Trump‑appointed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh signaled hawkish policy, prompting a broad risk‑off that also lifted the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the renminbi hit a 52‑week high at 6.94 per dollar even as commodity futures and semiconductor...
Running of the Bulls
The episode reviews recent market volatility, noting that despite modest index moves, asset class swings were significant and the S&P 500 closed January with a gain—a historically bullish signal that correlates with strong annual performance. It highlights the energy sector’s...
Money and Me: When Gold Breaks, AI Bites Back, and Japan Shakes the World
In this episode, host Michelle Martin and guest Simon Ree, founder of Tao of Trading, dissect a volatile market landscape where gold and silver have sharply retreated after a steep rally, and Microsoft’s stock fell despite strong earnings, raising concerns...
Plumbing Notes: A Global Compression
In this brief update, the host explains how the Federal Reserve’s recent liquidity injections have compressed the SOFR‑FF basis, pushing overnight SOFR rates to just a few basis points below the interest on reserve balances (IORB). Major banks, led by...
Interview with Jesse Day of Commodity Culture
In this episode, host Alasdair Macleod and guest Jesse Day of Commodity Culture explore the theory that China is amassing silver to eventually back the yuan with a silver standard, a move that could accelerate the dollar’s decline. They discuss...
No Glut in Sight: Why Oil Bears Remain Mistaken—Despite OPEC+ V8 Easing the Taps in April
The episode explains that recent oil price gains are driven primarily by sharp production cuts in the United States and Mexico caused by an unusually harsh winter, rather than by OPEC+ policy changes. Geopolitical tension, including rumors of a possible...
China’s Industrial Inflection
The episode examines China’s fixed asset investment (FAI) slump in 2025 and the government’s new policy push in January 2026 to shift spending from traditional construction toward smarter factories and digital infrastructure. It argues that this pivot could turn FAI...
Silver Suffers Steepest One‑day Drop Since 1921
January 30, 2026 . . . . Worst one day % drop in silver prices since 1921.
Who Is Trump's Fed Chair Pick?
In this six‑minute episode, host David Brancaccio examines President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. The discussion outlines Warsh’s background as a former Fed governor and his reputation for advocating low‑interest rates and a...
Report on Initial Public Offering Applications, Delisting and Suspensions (January 2026)
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange processed 474 IPO applications in January 2026, with 415 still under review and only 19 having reached listing status. No applications were rejected or returned, reflecting a streamlined review under the Enhanced Application Timeframe, which...
Inventories Before and During the Storm: A Reliable Predictor of… Nothing
The episode examines U.S. oil inventory data, highlighting that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has accumulated more barrels since early 2025 than the increase in domestic crude production. This discrepancy undermines claims of a true global oil surplus, as much...
The Messy, Tricky, Hairy Task of Economic Forecasting
In this 7‑minute episode, host David Brancaccio explores the reliability and usefulness of economic forecasting, debating whether such predictions are valuable or merely speculative. He discusses how fast‑moving news cycles can quickly render forecasts obsolete, yet argues that they still...
Understanding Peer Momentum
The episode explores "peer momentum," the idea that a stock’s future returns can be better predicted by the recent performance of its connected firms—not just its own past returns. Research shows that using industry‑level peer momentum yields annualized return spreads...
DIIs Buy Heavy as FIIs Sell; Put/Call Ratio 0
𝗙𝗜𝗜 / 𝗗𝗜𝗜 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆: 27th January ✔️#FIIs sold worth ₹3,068 cr and #DIIs bought of ₹9,000 cr in cash market. ✔️FIIs sold worth ₹784 cr in Index Options and sold Futures of ₹2,998 cr. 📊𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐮𝐭𝐬: 16.95 cr 📊𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬: 20.19...
The Changing Shape of Variation Margin Collateral
Variation margin (VM) collateral, long dominated by cash, is facing pressure from higher funding costs, stricter regulations, and market stress, prompting firms to explore non‑cash alternatives. A Risk.net survey of 114 collateral specialists shows 57% of sell‑side and 33% of...
Farmers Feel the Big Freeze
In this brief episode, Marketplace examines the severe winter storm that hit the Southern United States, detailing its impact on agriculture—from timber and sugar cane to crawfish and cattle. The segment highlights how freezing temperatures and ice have disrupted supply...
Profit Warnings Citing Global Upheaval Hit ‘Record High’
EY’s latest analysis shows 240 UK‑listed firms issued profit warnings last year, the lowest total since 2021 but the highest proportion citing policy and geopolitical uncertainty. About 42 percent of those warnings named regulatory flip‑flops, tariffs and wage hikes as profit‑dragging...
Asian Macro Initial Thoughts, Australia & India Re-Open. Currencies, Tariffs and Earnings on the Agenda as Gold & Silver Rally.
The episode surveys the volatile Asian macro landscape, highlighting Trump‑triggered tariff threats to South Korea, shifting US immigration policy, and Xi’s military purge, while noting strong performances in emerging‑market currencies like the ringgit and Singapore dollar. It reviews the earnings...
Pro Farmer Podcast | A Winter Wonderland
On the January 26, 2026 episode of the Pro Farmer Podcast, hosts Davis and Hillari examined how unusually frigid temperatures could jeopardize the upcoming winter wheat crop. They highlighted potential germination delays, reduced tiller development, and heightened disease pressure. Editor Bill Watts...
Modern Fed Chair
Asset‑management veteran Christopher Reider has surged to the front of the Federal Reserve chair race, positioning himself as the most suitable candidate for a fiscal‑dominant environment. Reider, a political outsider with no evident Trump connections, argues for lowering the policy...
Iraq’s January Oil Exports Surge: A Short Explanation.
The episode examines recent Kpler data showing Iraq’s seaborne crude oil exports jumping to an average of 3.457 million barrels per day in January, a rise of roughly 208 kb/d from December. It notes that pipeline shipments to Turkey have stayed steady...
Netflix: Waning Optimism
The episode reviews the author's evolving stance on Netflix, noting a recent 200‑basis‑point trim to the stock after several reductions throughout 2024, signaling waning optimism. Despite the cut, Netflix still comprises about 8% of the portfolio, reflecting lingering confidence in...
Deleveraging Operator Offers Compelling Yield
The episode examines a high‑yield note offering over 8.5% that is backed by a company aggressively reducing its debt, positioning it for a potential rating upgrade within the next two years. It highlights how the current spread reflects genuine compensation...
Repo Clearing: Expanding Access, Boosting Resilience
Repo clearing is gaining traction as market liquidity tightens and regulators push for more transparency. LSEG’s RepoClear head Michel Semaan discussed how mandatory clearing and new haircut rules could enhance resilience while potentially shifting liquidity. Buy‑side firms, including hedge funds...
China Weekly Wrap: Markets, Macro & Tech
The episode reviews the latest China market dynamics, highlighting a split performance where Shenzhen‑focused growth stocks outperformed while Shanghai mega‑caps and state‑heavy sectors lagged. Offshore Hong Kong showed modest gains with defensive sectors leading, and regional momentum was driven by...
E Ink (8069 TT)
E Ink remains the unrivaled supplier of e‑paper displays, controlling virtually the entire global market. The company trades at a lofty 16× price‑to‑earnings multiple, reflecting investor optimism despite modest growth. A breakthrough colour‑display technology is poised to expand its addressable...
Who Are the Frontrunners for the Top Fed Job?
President Donald Trump is expected to nominate a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the coming weeks, amid heightened political pressure for lower borrowing costs. The shortlist includes Kevin Hassett, a Trump‑aligned economist; former governor Kevin Warsh, a...
Gasoline Inventories Rise to Highest Level Since 2020
The episode examines the recent surge in U.S. gasoline inventories, which have climbed to their highest level since 2020, and explores the factors driving this buildup, including weaker demand, refinery outages, and seasonal storage patterns. Analysts discuss how the inventory...
How Much Money Does the UK Government Borrow, and Does It Matter?
The UK’s public sector net borrowing fell 38% in December 2025, a £7.1 billion reduction from the previous month. Over the full financial year to March 2025 the government borrowed £152.6 billion, with an additional £140.4 billion borrowed between April and November 2025....
High-Quality Real Estate Credit with More than Investment-Grade Spread
The episode examines a senior housing REIT whose current spread over the BBB index undervalues its credit quality, citing a strong net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio, ample liquidity, and improving rent coverage. It argues that the market misreads the issuer as...
Stale Data Watch: Construction Spending for October — More “Green Shoots”?
Construction spending for October rose modestly, with total nominal spending up 0.5% and residential construction up 1.3%. After adjusting for a 0.2% decline in material prices, real overall spending increased 0.7% and residential spending 1.5%, pushing both series close to...
Top Picks Update
In this early‑year episode, the host highlights a rapid shift in the housing market from tentative optimism to policy‑driven momentum, noting that mortgage rates are a key driver. The standout financial pick for 2026, Rocket Companies (RKT), has surged nearly...
How Your Brain’s “Break-Even” Bias Creates Mispricings
In this episode, Larry Swedroe discusses a new study by Jihoon Goh, Suk‑Joon Byun, and Donghoon Kim that uncovers how the “salience effect”—investors’ attraction to stocks with dramatic past moves—interacts with the “break‑even bias,” a tendency to take riskier bets...
Morning Market Brief
In this Morning Market Brief, Lawrence Fuller argues that geopolitical shocks—specifically the emerging US‑Greenland trade dispute and looming Supreme Court decision on emergency tariffs—are unlikely to derail the long‑term bullish market trend. He emphasizes that markets function as unbiased discount...
Fed Independence Goes Before the Supreme Court
The episode examines the Supreme Court case questioning whether a president can fire a sitting Federal Reserve governor, focusing on President Donald Trump's attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook. Experts discuss the legal precedent of presidential authority over other federal...
American Friction
The episode examines the fallout from escalating tariff disputes between the United States and Europe, which have prompted investors to sell U.S. assets and trigger a sell‑off in global markets. It highlights Japan’s bond market stress as yields climb to...
Assisted Thinking
The episode “Assisted Thinking” dissects the stark contrast between China’s massive reliance on coal—accounting for 58% of its primary energy in 2024—and the Western media narrative that paints Beijing as a climate leader. By examining data from the Statistical Review...
Annual Review of EU’s Gas Market in 2025 and the Outlook for 2026
The episode reviews the EU gas market in 2025, noting a modest 1.2% demand rebound after two years of decline and a sharp increase in LNG imports that offset a 15 bcm loss of Russian pipeline gas following the end of...
Discounting the Chaos
The episode “Discounting the Chaos” examines how, despite a torrent of geopolitical turmoil—from Venezuela’s leadership shake‑up to potential conflicts involving Iran and Greenland—the stock market remains a reliable, fundamentals‑driven gauge of future economic conditions. Recent data suggest the U.S. economy...
Are the Attacks on Kazakhstan’s Petroleum Sector Potentially Linked to Retaliation Against Trump’s Venezuela Strategy?
In this episode, A.F. Alhajji examines a sudden decline in OPEC+ oil output, focusing on recent attacks on Kazakhstan’s petroleum infrastructure and their possible connection to U.S. policy toward Venezuela under former President Trump. He argues that the disruptions may...
Practical Monetarism
The President is expected to announce his Fed Chairman pick this week, with former governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading contender. Warsh, a noted hawk, aligns his policy outlook with Treasury Secretary Bessent. He is best known for a...
IMF Warns of Trade Tension Risk to Global Growth
The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook projects global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up from 3.1%, but warns that trade tensions and a potential slowdown in AI‑driven investment pose downside risks. The report highlights the importance of...
Monday: Silver Slides as Iran Tensions Ease
In this brief episode, ANZ’s research analysts discuss the recent decline in silver prices, attributing the slide to easing geopolitical tensions with Iran. They note that reduced risk premiums are dampening demand for safe‑haven assets, while broader market dynamics and...
Weekly Indicators for January 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha’s weekly indicators for Jan 12‑16 highlight a normalizing yield curve and mortgage rates at three‑year lows, which are reviving the housing market. At the same time, gasoline prices have slipped to their lowest level in almost five years, creating...
The RMB Weakness that Wasn't
In this episode the hosts dissect the recent breach of the 7.00 RMB per USD threshold, a move they had forecast despite official resistance. They revisit their earlier stance against a "balance‑sheet recession" narrative, argue that the fundamentals still support further...
The One Measure that Can Tell Us a Lot About the State of the UK Economy
The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer shows a historic split after the 2024 election, with confidence soaring among under‑30s and under‑50s while falling sharply for those over 50. Younger optimism aligns with recent Bank of England rate cuts and a liberal‑left...
Counterparty Risk in Silver Exposed
The episode examines the recent price dynamics of precious metals, noting gold's steady rise to $4,606 and silver's rapid surge to $90.75, driven by heightened open interest on the COMEX. It highlights the emerging counterparty risk in the silver market,...
Industrial Production Sets New Post-Pandemic High in December - but Mainly Due to Utilities
Industrial production reached a new post‑pandemic high in December, climbing 0.4% after revisions added another 0.2% to prior months. The modest 0.2% rise in manufacturing was dwarfed by a 2.6% jump in utility output, which also posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year...