A Washout Bottom?
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) displayed a potential reversal on Tuesday, opening lower, slipping further, then rallying to close the session in positive territory. The move was reinforced by a bullish divergence on the 5‑day Relative Strength Index and trading volume that exceeded its recent average. These technical cues point to waning short‑term selling pressure and possible capitulation among bearish traders. The analysis is offered behind a subscription paywall, highlighting its premium nature.
More on China and the Middle East War
China has launched a high‑profile diplomatic campaign to halt the escalating Iran‑U.S./Israel war, calling for an immediate cease‑fire and a return to negotiations. Beijing emphasizes its flexible, interest‑based partnerships with Tehran rather than a binding alliance, underscoring that the Middle...
RFR Adoption in Cleared Rates Swaps – 2025 Update
The 2025 cleared rates‑swap data show that just over 62% of the $1,076 trillion notional is tied to risk‑free rate (RFR) indexes, leaving a 38% minority still anchored to legacy IBORs. Major currencies such as GBP, JPY and CAD have largely...
Core, Satellite, and Structural Premiums: PensionDanmark’s Approach to Emerging Market Debt
PensionDanmark has shifted the bulk of its emerging market debt portfolio from external managers to an internal team, now overseeing most hard‑currency and local‑currency sovereign exposure. The fund employs a core‑satellite framework, using the internal core for broad beta and...
Stick to What You Know
The article warns investors that geopolitical crises, such as the current Middle East conflict, trigger instinctive, emotion‑driven actions that clash with sound investing. It highlights the impossibility of forecasting short‑ and long‑term market reactions to such events. Instead, it reminds...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – March 4th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update shows EUR/USD slipping over 200 pips as investors flee to the U.S. dollar amid heightened Middle East tensions. Wave analysis suggests the pair is in a corrective phase, with the next bullish support zone around 1.0750....
Global Geopolitical Tensions Drive Capital Into Safe Havens:
Geopolitical tensions in 2026 have re‑emerged as a primary driver of global capital flows, prompting investors to seek defensive positions. Tens of billions of dollars have moved into money‑market funds, while traditional safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries, gold, and...
Major Pension Funds Accelerate Allocations to Alternative Investments
Pension funds worldwide are rapidly expanding allocations to alternative assets, with global pension assets exceeding $60 trillion. The Teachers’ Retirement System of Illinois alone approved nearly $1 billion for hedge funds and private‑market strategies, reflecting a broader move toward private equity, private...
Falling Approvals Shatter Housing Targets
The Australian government’s National Housing Accord, launched on 1 July 2024, set a goal of delivering 1.2 million new dwellings within five years. ABS data show that after the first 15 months, about 81,000 homes—27 % of the target—remain unbuilt, creating a sizable shortfall. The...
Reactions to Iran War; US-China; Two Sessions; DeepSeek and Qwen
China’s foreign ministry publicly condemned Israeli and U.S. military strikes against Iran, urging an immediate cease‑fire and emphasizing diplomatic solutions. Wang Yi’s call with Israel’s Gideon Sa’ar highlighted Beijing’s call for de‑escalation and protection of shipping lanes in the region....
TMTB EOD Wrap: Software Vs. Semis
Software equities outperformed semiconductors sharply, driving the IGV‑SOX performance spread to a 10‑year high of 14.70% on a six‑day rolling basis. This marks the largest spread since the index’s inception, with only six days in the past decade exceeding a...
California Legislature: Previewing the Year Ahead in California State Housing Policy
The Terner Center is hosting a March 24 webinar to preview California’s housing policy agenda for the 2025‑2026 legislative session. After a busy first year that delivered high‑profile bills on affordability, zoning and climate, lawmakers are expected to maintain an aggressive...
Projected Prices and Volatility Factors for 2026
The Risk Management Agency released 2026 projected prices and volatility factors for corn and soybeans after February’s price‑discovery period. Corn’s projected price fell to $4.62 per bushel, $0.08 below 2025, while soybean’s rose to $11.09, $0.55 higher than last year....
How Long Does It Take to Get a Reverse Mortgage in 2026?
The article outlines the typical 30‑to‑60‑day timeline for obtaining a reverse mortgage in 2026, detailing the five required steps from HUD‑approved counseling through closing. It highlights that well‑prepared borrowers can close in as little as 30 days, while common setbacks...
Vanguard’s Transfer on Death Plan Kit
Vanguard announced on September 20, 2025 that it now permits a Transfer‑On‑Death (TOD) designation for joint taxable brokerage accounts. The new option is accessed via an online request, a printable form, and a mailed signature, rather than a fully digital submission. Vanguard’s...
Opendoor Says It Will Offer 4.99% Mortgage Rates to Its Home Buyer Customers
Opendoor announced a beta mortgage product that will provide a 30‑year fixed rate of 4.99% with no points or fees, roughly a full percentage point below the current 6% market average. The discount is achieved through reduced margins, automation, and...
Critical Minerals in Focus as Major Toronto Mining Conference Underway – by Ian Bickis(CTV News Northern Ontario – March 2,...
The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto, drawing over 27,000 attendees, has placed critical minerals at the forefront of its agenda. Industry leaders warned that geopolitical fragmentation is heightening supply‑chain vulnerability for metals such as copper,...
NEW POD! How Credit Markets Shaped a Nation with Sarah Quinn
In the latest Net Interest Extra episode, sociologist Sarah Quinn discusses her book *American Bonds*, which argues that credit markets have been a foundational force in shaping the United States. Quinn traces how borrowing practices influenced industrial growth, urbanization, and...
TMTB: Gitlab (GTLB) Buyside Bogeys
GitLab (GTLB) heads into its quarterly earnings call at 4:05 pm, with an implied 15% price move priced in by the market. The stock has tumbled 50% since the end of October and now trades at roughly three times forward revenue,...
The Boomer Upsize
Baby Boomer retirees are increasingly outbidding families for large homes in prime suburban districts with top schools. Recent examples from Biloxi, Mississippi and St. Charles County, Missouri show seniors relocating to be near adult children and grandchildren, driving rapid sales...
What We Just Learned About The Dollar
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
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Model Factsheet Update [February]
Tematica released an updated suite of model factsheets covering a broad range of thematic, core, targeted, and dividend income strategies. The new AI & Data Center, CHIPS Act, Cloud Computing, Digital Infrastructure, and Nuclear Energy models reflect emerging technology and...
February Update - Tematica Select Digital Infrastructure Model (DIGI)
On March 3, 2026 Tematica released its February update to the Select Digital Infrastructure (DIGI) model, which tracks firms that build and operate the backbone of the hyper‑connected economy. The revision expands the universe to include edge‑computing, 5G tower, and submarine‑cable operators,...
Cell Tower Valuation Model (Updated March 2026)
The article introduces a new Excel‑based Cell Tower Valuation Model designed for telecom infrastructure underwriting. It highlights how 5G rollouts, rising data usage, and new operators are turning cell towers into high‑demand, inflation‑protected CRE assets. Valuations are driven by cash‑flow...
Headline Risk Rises Again – Defensive Market – Bearish Patterns in Tech
The provided page is a subscriber‑only login portal for TrendInvestorPro, a service offering systematic trading strategies, market timing models, and ETF analysis. No substantive market commentary or data is visible without a paid subscription. The page lists features such as...
Submarket Spotlight: Denver, Brighton & Northern Colorado Industrial Market
Colorado’s industrial warehouse market is fragmented into distinct submarkets, each driven by functional priorities rather than aggregate metro metrics. In Denver’s infill and core corridors, limited land and high labor proximity sustain strong demand for small‑bay, last‑mile spaces, while Commerce...
BTQ Technologies Added to WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund
BTQ Technologies Corp. has been added to the WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund (WQTM), a U.S.-listed ETF that targets pure‑play quantum hardware, software and infrastructure firms. The fund, launched in October 2025, manages roughly $26.4 million as of February 27 2026. BTQ’s inclusion highlights its...
Frontier AI Economics
Frontier AI model developers operate under highly speculative economics, with valuations suggesting they will capture strong net‑profit margins over time. The range of possible outcomes remains broad, from modest profitability to potential monopoly power, as illustrated by a hypothetical Anthropic...
Diesel Prices Rise Sharply, While Gas Increases Remain Modest Across the U.S.
U.S. diesel prices jumped 10 cents to $3.809 per gallon for the week ending Feb. 23, with the Midwest posting the steepest regional rise of 13 cents. The West Coast continues to lead in absolute cost, averaging $4.465. By contrast, gasoline...
Jack Lifton Interviews James Deckelman on Deep Sea Minerals and the Strategic Push Into Seabed Critical Minerals
Jack Lifton interviewed Deep Sea Minerals CEO James Deckelman about the company’s push into polymetallic seabed nodules as a new source of critical minerals. Deckelman highlighted a projected doubling of demand by 2040, a widening supply gap, and soaring copper...
Day 4 Iran Update: Hormuz BLOCKADE Incoming: Reinsurers CANCEL All Gulf Coverage + Qatar LNG SHUT DOWN | Rapid Read...
On March 3, 2026, coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continued to degrade Iranian command, missile and naval infrastructure while collateral damage caused civilian casualties. Major marine reinsurers issued 72‑hour war‑risk cancellation notices for the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters, effective March 5,...
Brownfield Exploration Gives Copper Supply Breathing Time
The rate of discovering new copper deposits has fallen by half over the past decade, driven by a roughly 60% drop in grassroots exploration funding. In contrast, brownfield and mine‑site exploration has supplied four times more copper than greenfield discoveries,...
Disastrously, Mexico’s 2025 Investment Was OK
Mexico’s government hailed 2025 capital investment as reaching historic highs, but the underlying data tells a different story. Year‑over‑year growth was roughly 2%, a modest rise that barely nudges the long‑term trend upward. Critics argue the figures are underwhelming and...
75,000 “Relistings” Could Hit the Market, But Inventory WON’T Explode?
Housing market analysts note that roughly 75,000 single‑family homes are being relisted, representing about 11% of active inventory. De‑listings surged to 60‑80% of new listings during the holiday season, reflecting sellers pulling overpriced homes. Most relistings stem from owner‑occupiers waiting...
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
The Permabulls and Iran
On Monday the S&P 500 closed essentially flat after permabulls rushed in on the opening dip, echoing Michael Burry’s “greatest buy‑the‑dip generation” claim. The optimism was short‑lived as escalating tensions in Iran prompted a market rethink. The author warns that...
India’s Iron Dome: The Multi-Billion Dollar Shield
India is negotiating to acquire Israel’s Iron Dome and Iron Beam systems to plug a critical short‑range gap in its multi‑layered air‑defense architecture, known as Mission Sudarshan Chakra. The plan emphasizes sensor‑fusion, centralized command and cost‑effective interception of drones, rockets...
Economic Implications of the Iran Attacks
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to announce a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil chokepoints. The move threatens to halt commercial traffic, immediately spiking crude prices and prompting insurers to...
Federal Reserve Revenue: Cutsinger’s Solution
The Federal Reserve sets its own operating budget and remits any surplus to the Treasury, but it lacks a residual claimant who would benefit from cost savings. Because officials do not capture saved dollars, there is little incentive to minimize...
Gold Daily Call for March 3rd, 2026
Midas Touch Consulting issued its Gold Daily Call for March 3, 2026, projecting that spot gold will initially trade sideways before turning lower. The technical chart highlights a near‑term support zone around $2,050 per ounce and resistance near $2,150. The note cites...
Avoiding the Echo Chamber: Kraft’s Playbook in Tighter High-Yield Market
Kraft Fondene’s high‑yield funds posted double‑digit returns in 2025 despite a market shift toward tighter spreads and lower dispersion. Leveraging a strong 2024 portfolio, the team rotated out of over‑compressed positions such as Heimstaden Bostad and reduced exposure to subordinated...
![[Update & Reveal] John Wood Group: Buyer Lock-In via Lending Pays Off: Double-Digit Gains Since January](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B5NZ!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32978d04-1cd9-421d-91c4-d4ab686c7abd_577x577.png)
[Update & Reveal] John Wood Group: Buyer Lock-In via Lending Pays Off: Double-Digit Gains Since January
John Wood Group’s merger with Sidara has cleared all antitrust and regulatory hurdles, confirming the buyer’s lock‑in strategy that began with a $250 million loan injection. The regulatory green light on March 3 triggered a share price rise to 28.70 pence, delivering double‑digit...
Tidan Deepens Volatility Arbitrage Expertise
Tidan Capital has appointed Laurent Keller as Senior Portfolio Manager, bolstering its volatility and options arbitrage platform. Keller brings over a decade of quantitative experience in equity volatility relative‑value, dispersion and correlation strategies from a large Swiss institutional investor. He...
Sugar’s Bounce Has a Problem: The Surplus Story Has Not Moved
White sugar prices barely moved in May 2026, closing at $407.7/tonne, as futures steadied above $400 after a five‑year low. Despite the tactical bounce, surplus projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 dominate market sentiment, limiting upside. Brazil’s modest output dip and...
What To Do If You Can’t Afford Your Student Loan Payment
The article outlines practical steps for borrowers who can’t afford their student loan payments, starting with switching to income‑driven repayment plans that cap monthly outlays at a percentage of discretionary income. It highlights deferment or forbearance as short‑term pauses, while...
Asia Wrap: The Strait, The Semis, But Mostly The Invoice Korea Could Not Ignore
Korea’s KOSPI slumped over 7% on its first post‑holiday session as oil prices spiked amid heightened Hormuz risk. Roughly 70% of Korean crude comes from the Middle East, linking oil shocks directly to trade balances, inflation and currency pressure. The...
Qatar’s LNG Crisis: The Massive Geopolitical Risk Premium—And How You Can Profit From It
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, faces a supply crunch as regional geopolitical tensions and export‑capacity constraints tighten the market. The disruption has injected a hefty risk premium into spot and forward LNG prices, pushing contracts up 15‑20% year‑over‑year. Buyers...
TOBAM - Filing for Period Ending 12/31/2025
Tobam, a Paris‑based hedge fund, reported $1.236 billion in discretionary assets under management for the period ending 31 December 2025, serving 28 institutional clients. Its latest 13F filing shows $407 million in managed securities with a 21.34% concentration among the top ten holdings, led...
REFLECTION ASSET MANAGEMENT - Filing for Period Ending 12/31/2025
Reflection Asset Management (RAM), based in Isle of Palms, oversees $164.95 million in discretionary assets for 67 clients and reported $140.68 million in 13F‑registered securities for Q4 2025. Its portfolio is heavily weighted toward NVIDIA, which alone accounts for 33.78% of its top‑ten...