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Geopolitical Analysis: China Challenges SpaceX Dominance with Massive LEO Governance Strategy

China has submitted ITU filings for roughly 203,000 low‑Earth‑orbit satellites, marking a strategic shift from technical catch‑up to regulatory flooding. By exploiting Equivalent Power Flux Density limits, Beijing aims to reserve large portions of the interference budget, forcing rivals such as SpaceX and Amazon to redesign systems around “ghost” constellations. The approach contrasts with SpaceX’s vertically integrated model, relying instead on a state‑backed, distributed manufacturing network. If China can launch within the ITU’s seven‑year window, it could reshape LEO dominance by the early 2030s.