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Home Robots Won’t Arrive Until 2025, Data Shows

I heard this a lot this week at CES. The robots for the home are at least two years away. Probably five, many say. Met with @BradTempleton who was an early genius working for @waymo. He reminded me again that I was over my skis when it comes to Tesla Robotaxi. But I did tell everyone my date is April and not end of year like Elon once promised. He hates when I talk about dates and gave me a good class in why no one knows when Autonomy is fully solved. I do have data about what the fleet is doing. Which is why I am always on the Tesla community spaces. And have the best Tesla list here on X. Lists are about to get a lot more important. Think of them as ground truth. You see it all. Keeps you grounded to reality. @GaryShapiro did a gracious stop and talk to me for a few precious moments in the hallway. He runs the show and has always been a gracious man. I can’t imagine a better leader for the tech industry. And his show kicked off the autonomous age. Mercedes gave me its first ride in its first AI vehicle here years ago. Gary deserves credit for supporting autonomous vehicles from the beginning. But Brad has me thinking through the difference between intuition and knowledge. Reevaluating everything in the knowledge category because mistakes were found in my thinking. I know of breakthroughs inbound. But I do have to admit that I don’t know when Tesla Robotaxi will be turned on without humans on board. Data solves all arguments. Elon will be forced to slow down until he has enough data. He can’t afford to see the system make a mistake, Brad told me that’s why he doesn’t see it shipping soon. The lawyers won’t let it ship until it is done. Truth is everyone on the team realizes it has to be perfect when turned on. Or very very close.