Startup Revenue Metrics Are Ambiguous; Trust Them Less
I find myself trusting founder revenue metrics less than at any point since I started investing. That includes 2021, which should tell you something. Only 1% to 2% of startups ever reach $100M in revenue. The headlines make it feel like that number is higher. It is not. But when everyone is chasing the next AI unicorn, standards slip. The real problem is not fraud. It is ambiguity. When a founder says they are at $1M ARR, I now have to ask which definition they are using. There are five: 1) LTM Revenue: Actualized revenue over the past 12 months. Most conservative, most defensible. 2) ARR: Guaranteed monthly revenue x 12, based on signed contracts. Predictable, contractual, real. 3) CARR: Signed revenue not yet realized. Pulls future revenue into the present. 4) Run Rate: Last month x 12, non-contractual. Sounds like ARR but carries none of the same guarantees. 5) Non-Binding: Verbal commitments, not contractual. Often presented with the same confidence as the others. Venture is giving equal credit to all five. That creates bad incentives. We are heading toward a reset similar to 2022. The fix is not complicated. Slow down enough to understand what the number actually means before pricing a round around it. The most important bet in early-stage investing is still on the person. But that bet requires trust. And trust requires honesty about what the numbers say.
Europe’s Startup Boom Shatters Funding Records
i'm German. Europe's startup ecosystem is MOONING right now the record for the largest seed round in european history just got broken twice in a row and the largest series c in european history just happened ...all in the past 2 months > largest seed...
Start Fundraising Early to Build Investor Relationships
Always start your fundraising efforts earlier than you think you need to. Building relationships and momentum takes time, so give yourself ample runway to engage potential investors and perfect your pitch. 🤝
From First Angel to $4B Spinout: Boomi’s Evolution
Boomi was my first Angel investment. We were their customer at Half dot com in 2000 and used their system to send / receive inventory and orders with sellers. Then eBay signed up. Acquired by Dell in 2010 then spun...
VCs Need Mentorship, Pattern Matching, and One Outlier
if you want to become a VC, here's what I've learned doing it myself: - it doesn't take a lot of skill nor intelligence, but there's tribal knowledge that's hard to assemble into a real sense for which startups to invest...
Early Backers Pay Off as Checks Grow
checks are bigger at @maniacvc now. grateful to the founders who let me in early with smaller ones. flywheel works.
Founders Must Distinguish Pilot, Bookings, Revenue Accurately
Here's YC's official advice about being truthful and precise about what is pilot, bookings, revenue and recurring revenue. Founders, particularly first time founders, need to sear this into their brains. Don't mistake one tier for another. Be precise, and always...
Invest in Proven Canine Cardiac Reversal Biotech
I co-founded @RejuvenateBio & have enjoyed the science from day one. Cardiac disease reversal in dogs. 3 years of safety data. Zero safety signals. They’ve opened a unique opportunity for the biotech community to invest & secure equity at this early...
First‑Time Founders Need Legal Guidance—Watch My Startup Channel
What I hear from first time founders: I don’t know what I don’t know Most founders want to work with me because of my 10+ years of experience working with startups. Well, did you know I have a YouTube channel where I post...
Investors Fund Proof, Not Pitches—Show Real Customer Data
Investors don't fund ideas. They fund evidence. Customers who paid real money. Problems you describe better than the people experiencing them. Early data from real transactions. The best pitches aren't inspiring — they're reassuring. Build evidence before you build a pitch deck.
Investing in Blackstar: Next Category‑Creating Venture
Our newest investment: Blackstar ✴︎ @DanielEdrisian is a product & eng savant. We invested in his last company, Alex, which OpenAI bought. When he called to say he was building something new, we said yes on the call. Blackstar ✴︎ is a...
Limited 100 Spots: Join Exclusive Deal Access
We are accepting 100 new members to https://t.co/6leeScCHo6 in Q2 I’ve been lucky enough to invest in great companies like @zipline @uber @RobinhoodApp and @calm over the years… and now I’m sharing access on a deal by deal basis with...
Keep Your VC Promises or Face Community Memory
Investors who verbally commit to lead the round and then back out - you should be ashamed of yourselves. This is a terrible way to do venture business and this community has a long memory. Do what you said you are...
Good Metrics? Push Back on Low Valuations
One of our founders successfully negotiated up a lowball valuation offer even though they were a bit hesitant to ask. If your metrics are good, do not be afraid to push back on valuation. VCs will work with founders of...
Public Venture Fund Opens to $500 Investors
Announcing my new thing: I'm launching a new public venture fund USVC is built by AngelList with @naval shaping our investment strategy in the technology companies building our future And unlike traditional venture funds, everyone can invest along with just $500:
Cursor AI Secures First Backer, VerdictCap’s Michael Fertik
Congratulations to @cursor_ai for landing the 🚀. And to @VerdictCap MD @michaelfertik for being their very first backer. 🦄
Founder Matters More than the Startup Idea
The best early-stage startup investment isn't actually the startup. It's the founder. When Joshua Sirota came through the Launch accelerator after getting rejected by YC, and my team, "I don't know if this startup works. But I know Josh is...
Nabla Bio Secures Seed Funding Directly at Conference
Some companies raise a seed round. Nabla Bio had one built at a conference. https://t.co/1xmbmuqA8p
SynBioBeta Fuels Boom Capital’s Top Biotech Deals
@SynBioBeta draws one of the densest concentrations of biotech investors of any conference in the world. So what keeps them coming back? Celestine “Cee Cee” Schnugg has the answer. Cee Cee is the Founding Managing Partner of Boom Capital, an early-stage deep...
Apply Now: A16z Speedrun Offers $1M Funding & $5M Credits
ok - dropping big dates/news for a16z speedrun: - starting TODAY, founders can apply for the 2026 program that runs July 27 to Oct 11 in SF here's the link: https://t.co/opkX4cIaCF - we will be investing up to $1M and funding 70+ companies...
Seed Managers Push SPVs to Co‑invest in Growth
There is a lot of truth in that statement. And also, many seed managers saying “wait, why don’t I also raise an SPV and invest alongside you in the growth stages.”
McDonald's Potato Chips Outproduce NVIDIA's Silicon Chips
In the mid-1990s, J.R. Simplot, McDonalds' biggest potato supplier, was on the Forbes 400. His main source of wealth was that he wrote a big early angel check into Micron.
Stendr Secures $5.4M to Build AI Drone-Tracking Tech
MyPOV: Stendr snags $5.4M in pre-seed funding to develop AI-native drone-tracking tech https://t.co/n6JlqaMl2E @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “It’s good to see a startup from allied nations entering the drone defense industry, which is a brand new field and already sorely needed,” - @holgermu...
Know Your Worth: Early Startup Equity Guidelines
How much equity you should ask for at an early startup? #tech #womenintech #founder #startup
36 Companies Max for 1x Return in Concentrated Fund
this makes sense all else held equal, concentrated fund = less risky bets we've found that 36 companies is the max number of companies we can fit into a fund while claiming that a single company at 1B exit can return 1x...
Aleph Bets on Early-Stage, Capital‑efficient Contrarian Investing
And this is why @aleph remains focused on early stage investing and cares about capital efficiency. Today, that is 100% Contrarian and non-consensus.
Can Private Data Platforms Sustain Eka Ventures’ Pre‑Seed Edge?
Do VCs with private data platforms find the best pre-seed deals? Eka Ventures was early with proprietary tools, but can it keep its edge? https://preseednow.com/p/eka-ventures-camilla-dolan
YC Remains Top Fintech Investor Despite Deal Decline
YC Once Again Tops Ranks Of Most Active Fintech Investors In Q1 Even As Deal Count Drops https://t.co/zmmPsTQOdx via @crunchbasenews
Investors Demand Proven Revenue Before Funding; Bootstrapping Essential
Investors are basically telling early-stage founders to figure it out first, then come back for money. I know how that lands, but after a month of conversations with founders, investors, and accelerators - it's hard to argue with the pattern. Investors want...
20% Seed Dilution Now Standard, Up From
Most founders will sell 20-25% in a seed round right now, up from 15-20% a few years ago. Selling 20% is reasonable 99% of the time.
Ignoring Insider Feedback Guarantees Fundraising Rejection
It’s rough when founders don’t listen to insiders during fundraising prep then go to raise only to find out external investors pass exactly because of the questions insiders raised. But it basically happens every single time when founders fail to do...
Seeking SF Connections: Teaching, Funding Dev Tools Startups
heading to SF tomorrow - teaching at Stanford on Tuesday 😳 also writing $100k checks for dev tools/infra founders + seeing new lps who should i meet?
Founders Can Earn Similar Returns Despite Later Exits
An early investment I made, I met with the CEO of a public company that wanted to buy them for $50m The startup hadn’t raised much, they said No Years later, they sold for almost $1B The founders made about...
Matium Seeds Efficiency in Trillion‑dollar US Plastics Market
the U.S. plastics market moves a trillion dollars a year on phone calls and spreadsheets. excited to lead Matium's seed round to bring structure, financing, managed logistics, and quality guarantees to this market. ~10% of the industry is already using...
Crucible Backs Three College Trading Teams to Launch Startups
random fact - Crucible has backed 3 co-founding teams that bonded over trading in college - @kaledora + @contrarianmarco, Harvard -> @OstiumLabs - @bavaria_kush + @wayne_nelmz, MIT -> @OrnnExchange - @harshavramesh + @cdeshpande17, Vanderbilt -> @PillarHQ LOVE OF THE GAME
Contracted ARR Definitions Vary Wildly Across Startup Pitches
A lot of "Contracted ARR" is being thrown at me in startup pitches these days. And it seems highly inconsistent in definition among founders...
Seeing Friends Profit From Your Startup Bets Feels Amazing
Been investing in startups for ~9 years now Occasionally convinced friends to co-invest alongside me Today I helped one of them get real liquidity from one of those bets I like building & investing, but seeing someone I really care about benefit from...
YC Backs Stablecoins, Reshaping Finance Beyond ACH
YC will invest in any YC company in stablecoins The new financial rails of the revolution will not be over ACH or wire
Answer Cash Amount, Not Valuation, when Asked Fundraising
I had back to back convos today where I asked a founder, how much are you raising? And instead of telling me the $$ amount they’re raising, they told me the valuation they’re raising at. So if someone asks, how much are...
Startups Inflate ARR: Not Annual, Not Recurring, Not Revenue
Startups misreporting ARR is frustrating as an infrequent angel investor who relies on trust (no time to inspect) ~Every startup claiming 0→$[X]M ARR in [Y] months always forget to clarify that it's either a) not really Annual b) not really...
How to Spot High‑Potential AI Startups for 2026
That’s a wrap on HumanX. 👏 Our CEO, @jagermcconnell, shared how to spot high-potential AI startups early, while our Research Lead, @geneteare, broke down the 2026 AI VC playbook and where capital is flowing next. Catch Jager’s full conversation. 🔗: https://t.co/yHSLy5M6ez
Essential Angel Investing Manual for Building Startups
I got to go through an early copy of this book and it is a solid resource. @somani_utsav has taken patterns he has seen from angel investing and working closely with India's top founders and made a detailed manual out...
Camp Hustle Turns Travel Into Lasting Business Connections
You know that feeling when you leave a conference and think "...why did I fly across the country for that?" Well, you won't be thinking that at Camp Hustle. Campers leave with deal leads, co-investors, and friends they're texting a week later....
Accountant Launches AI Tax Startup, Secures $12M Seed
In 2023, Dave Haase was a CPA who had been running his own firm in the San Francisco Bay Area for several years when he saw a live demo of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Upon seeing the AI agent successfully file a...
Offering Seed Funding for Offensive Cyber Startup via Signal
If anyone at Anthropic would like to build an offensive cyber company I will write you a seed term sheet pls find me on Signal
Inside the Realities of Running a Pre‑Seed Startup
📚Blog Post: What It’s Really Like to Run a Pre-Seed Stage Firm https://t.co/mMnEaI8qOF @2048vc // #startuphacks // #VC
No Numbers in Founder Updates Signal Trouble
From one of my advisors who is a long-time angel: "I’ve been writing down my portfolio each month with 'spidey sense' assessments of founders whose updates have been getting fluffy. No numbers in the update = not a good sign."