SOFR Curve Signals Rate Hike, New Fed Chair Tested
With the SOFR curve now pricing in a rate hike instead of the three rate cuts expected earlier this year, it seems like incoming Fed Chair Warsh will be tested by the market, as often happens with leadership changes. Will Warsh insist on cutting rates, or at least not raising rates, and will that cause more beer steepening? The move higher in yields is very much a global phenomenon, as was the case in 2022. Will this force a directional change for central banks around the world?
Buy Select M&A-Exposed Apparel Winners Amid Brunt Deal
Brunt eyes >$1B sale/stake with JPMorgan; $300M sales, workwear gaining mainstream. Risks: valuation/execution. Trading insight: buy selective M&A-exposed apparel winners. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hormuz Disruptions Demand True Supply Chain Elasticity
The Strait of Hormuz has become a geopolitical pinball machine, disrupting 20% of global petroleum flows through a single chokepoint. From GPS spoofing to drone harassment, this is “attrition by algorithm.” Boards must stop planning for likely scenarios and build...
Amazon Connect Expands Beyond Call Center to Enterprise Touchpoints
Amazon Connect is no longer just a contact center solution. With new expansions into supply chain, healthcare EHR augmentation, and high-volume recruiting, AWS is targeting high-engagement touchpoints across the entire enterprise. Analysis here: https://t.co/sAseu3NKdj #CIO #Cloud #AI #CX #SupplyChain #HealthTech
Bond Market Sticks to Mid‑2% Inflation Amid Peak Oil Stress
The Oil Stress vs Inflation Expectations chart below shows the distribution of inflation expectations (10-year TIPS break-even) at the top and the distribution of oil “stress” (the scarcity premium) at the bottom. The bond market apparently believes that inflation will...
Simplify, Automate, and Delegate to Lighten IT Cognitive Load
#CIOChat Q3: Leading orgs are beginning to rethink operating models around focus, simplification, automation, decision reduction. What strategies actually work to reduce cognitive load for IT teams (org design, AI filtering, leads meeting, delegated authority, something else?) https://t.co/vRdY9iAxpT
Avoid These 5 Common Email Marketing Mistakes
Here are the 5 most common email mistakes I see: → Sending every campaign to the full list → Waiting hours to send the welcome and cart emails → Burying the discount or core offer below the fold → Shipping a mobile experience designed...
Essential Financial Models Every Pro Must Master
Top 5 Financial Models Every Finance Professional Should Know 👇 1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model – Used to estimate the intrinsic value of a company. 2. Three-Statement Model – Connects income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. 3. Budgeting & Forecasting...
New Algorithm Updates Set to Transform Search
Updated the algo update list. LOTS of interesting changes that will impact Search in the last few weeks. https://t.co/0KdmuSXKw2 https://t.co/42VrvaOOYx
BI's Rate Hike Aligns Money Growth with Inflation Target
To defend the Rupiah, Bank Indonesia raised interest rates by 50 bps. Meanwhile, inflation is 2.4%/yr. Indonesia's money supply is growing at 9.7%/yr. That's within Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%-10.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting BI's inflation target of 1.5%-3.5%/yr....
Tiny Market Share Merger Seeks Cost Synergies, Not Pricing Power
Some quick thoughts on AvalonBay + Equity Residential merger announced today. 1) Big names, but still small market share. About 0.5% of the market combined. Fun fact: The combined firm will have 180k units, which is less than Equity had at...
Simplify Roles and Expectations to Eliminate Sleepless Decisions
Someone asked me recently what decisions I’m losing sleep over. And there wasn’t one. For 4 years, I was anxious, grinding, and had no idea whether any of this would work. The stress was constant. But at some point...
Scale Only After Retention‑Driven PMF and GTM Fit
Just had a great conversation with Yaniv Bernstein on The Startup Podcast about one of the most consequential (and often most botched) decisions a founder makes: when to scale. A few things that Yaniv and I discussed on the pod:...
Customers Demand Continuous Truth, Not Quarterly Reviews
QBR in 2026: From Quarterly Meetings to AI Business Reviews https://t.co/yg4QW9YwEv @castdotapp Customers no longer want a QBR. They want continuous truth. https://t.co/jlNcsr04a6
GAAP Earnings Rare Gems in Adjusted-Number Market
The level of shock and awe at using adjusted numbers is surprising. I’m not endorsing adjusted earnings as a reliable valuation approach, but the entire market is priced this way. It’s the norm not the exception. Finding a good +...
Red Bull’s Debt‑Free, Culture‑First Growth Playbook
🥤 Red Bull didn’t scale by chasing growth. 💰 It refused debt. 🎯 It bets on culture over ads. 🛡️ It survived by never risking survival. The Red Bull Playbook is a masterclass in long-term thinking. Read here: https://michaelwmchugh.com/red-bull-playbook-without-debt/
ENHA's Zero‑Spend Launch Sparks 375M‑Reach Global Games
Another proof point that, with virtually no marketing spend, $ENHA has managed to build a global sports brand at record speed. Our inaugural @enhanced_games this Sunday, May 24, are attracting a full house of the world’s most followed digital creators and...
May 2026 Core Update Launches, Expect Bigger Impact
Here we go! The May 2026 broad core update is rolling out. I hope it's more impactful than the March core update. That was a dud IMO. :) I'll be posting updates based on what I'm seeing in the SERPs....
VCs Exaggerate Early Involvement to Boost Credibility
VC telling a story: "Back when we invested in the early days..." Narrator: "They did not, in fact, invest in the early days."
Fed Hikes Loom, Bond Market Right, Economy Stumbles
JUST IN: Fed meeting minutes show majority of Fed officials signaling interest rate increases. The bond market is also betting on hikes. And the bond market has been right more times than anyone wants to admit. Home prices are up 60%...
From $1.5M Startup to Fintech Empire Powering Half of Brokers
She launched a $1.5M trading startup at 29—then built a multibillion-dollar fintech empire powering half of online brokerage accounts.
AI Builds Full Revenue Site in Minutes, Not Weeks
I spun up a full AI revenue agent site in about 2 minutes. Not just a simple landing page. A complete site with a second page, conversion tracking pixels, a smoke test, and a deployed domain. That used to take weeks. Here's...
Jazz Owner Prioritizes Championship Over Utah Ties
Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith, on if he gives any bonus points to drafting someone with Utah connections after he, himself, held out to buy his hometown team: "[We're] going to draft whoever is going to put us closer to...
Full Hormuz Oil Flows Delayed Until 2027, Says ADNOC
Reuters: "Full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended now, the head of the United Arab Emirates' state oil firm ADNOC said"...
Idea Stolen, Still Built $44M ARR SaaS
Mark Abbott openly shared his SaaS idea. A competitor stole it and launched 12 months ahead. He still built Ninety io to $44M ARR: "Could I be an investor? Came back and said, no. So I actually started as EOS compatible in...
Hark Secures $700M to Build Next-Gen Personal AI
Today I'm excited to share that Hark has raised $700M at a $6B valuation When I use these AI models today, they feel basic. They should be able to listen and talk naturally, understand vision, retain persistent memory, and become deeply...
New Google Ads Updates and Account Penalties Announced
It's New 5/21: Big Google Ads News From Google Marketing Live and more with @gregfinn https://t.co/7TDxEvkCZ0 we are penalizing @mordyoberstein and @TheMarketingAnu
Building Lasting South Florida Neighborhoods Since Age 23
my conversation with David Martin, CEO of Terra on building one of South Florida’s most influential real estate development firms, launching Terra at 23 years old, & the philosophy behind creating neighborhoods that last TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:56 - From Selling a...
Warsh's Fed Chair Inauguration Signals Uncertain Regime Change
On the eve of Warsh's swearing in as Fed chair on Friday, here's our piece from last week about what he means by regime change and how likely he is to achieve that https://t.co/Oogluog4lM @nytimes https://t.co/ccMkLzKge2
China Counters German Engineering Surplus with Aggressive Industrial Policy
China didn't respond to Germany's "engineering" surplus by sitting on its hands -- it had a rather active industrial policy to substitute Chinese production for German imports (including by buying and digesting Kuka), and now it turbocharges its exports with...
College Football Budgets: Biggest Growth and Cost per Win Revealed
Good morning I FOIA'd (almost) every public FBS and FCS school, got their reported college football operating budgets for FY25, and put them in a table for you to read. Here's who grew the most from last year, who spent the...
Arsenal's Victory Highlights American Owners' Growing Influence
⚽ New Episdoe⚽ @JacobFeldman4 and @kbadenhausen pinch hit: Sporticast: What Arsenal’s Win Means for EPL’s American Owners https://t.co/XRemnPCbpX via @sportico
Trump’s Policies Drain US Economy Amid AI Boom
Some fun/depressing napkin-math from The Economist on how much Trump's trade & immigration policies - and chaotic policymaking overall - are costing the otherwise-solid US economy (thanks mainly to the AI boom): https://t.co/sAdCJvmSaF https://t.co/cDUJmNpHrW
Trust Beats Capital: Founders Choose Partners Over Funds
The question I have been asking myself and every founder I meet is the same one: What is your right to win? It sounds simple. It is not. The right to win is not a fixed asset. It is something you...
YouTube Launches Shoppable Ads via Universal Commerce Protocol
UCP Everywhere :) -> UCP Coming to YouTube: YouTube is enhancing its advertising capabilities by introducing shoppable ads that integrate a 'Buy now' button leveraging Universal Commerce Protocol https://t.co/abrXcgNBHm https://t.co/drDpt8vOvi
Fractional Executives Deliver Manufacturing Leadership in Weeks
Manufacturers don't have 6 months to find the right CEO or COO. Fractional executive leadership puts experienced operators on the floor in weeks – not months. https://t.co/n25yUWoHIh #FractionalLeadership #ManufacturingLeadership #FractionalLeadership https://t.co/XiX4cRBwwl
TikTok Launches AI‑driven Creator Search for Intent‑based Matching
TikTok announced Creator AI Search.🔎 The feature within TikTok One Creator Marketplace allows brands and agencies to find creators by entering a campaign brief and receiving a curated list of best-fit creators. This shift from filters to intent-based discovery aligns with...
CapCut Joins Gemini, Turning Chat Into Video Editor
CapCut is partnering with Gemini @capcutapp is integrating with Gemini so users can edit videos inside Google’s chatbot. The goal: idea → edit → export without constantly switching apps. Google is rapidly turning Gemini into a creator hub with Canva, Adobe and CapCut...
Google Unifies Ads and Analytics Advisors Into AI Agent
Google Ask Advisor brings together Ads Advisor and Analytics Advisor into one AI-agent advisor https://www.seroundtable.com/google-ask-advisor-41354.html #google #googleads #googleanalytics #googlemerchantcenter #gml
US Economic Data Signals Slight Slowdown Across Sectors
Economic Calendar for Thurs May 21 8:30am - Building permits (prelim) for April: Expected 1.383M; Prior 1.363M - Initial jobless claims: Expected 210k; Prior 211k - Housing starts for April: Expected 1.419M; Prior 1.521M - Philly Fed manufacturing index for May: Expected 12; Prior 26.7 9:45 - S&P composite...
Predictable Pricing Beats Complexity for Enterprise SaaS
🚀 New SaaS CFO Podcast episode with Ankur Goyal from Fibr AI! We covered fundraising timing, enterprise SaaS sales, and why predictable pricing still wins with large customers. Watch here 👇 https://t.co/eyhoZxRelQ #SaaS #AI #Startup #B2B https://t.co/xNRqSzPBTf
Fed Rate Cuts Expose Fragile Risk Asset Dependence
Sock Puppets to Stocks? Crude, Gold, Commodities, Bitcoin, Bonds The Federal Reserve's 2025 rate cuts, despite the most inflated stock market vs. GDP since before the Great Depression, may have reinforced how dependent most risk assets are on the beta tide...
Fed Delay May Ignite Inflation Like 1928 Bubble
Adding Fuel to Inflation Fire May Not Fare Well Federal Reserve easing in 2025, despite the greatest stock market inflation since 1928-29, may be a top force buttressing consumer prices and what parabolic rallies in gold and silver sniffed out. History...
Esports Boom Goes Global—Act Now or Miss Out
Our recent book reflects the global nature of a fast burgeoning esports economy. China, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Denmark and now Thailand (see tweet below). Some countries are asleep and will miss out on first mover advantages. More to this...
Metal Branding Beats Expensive Meta
Liquid Death went from $3M to $333M in revenue in under 5 years by branding water like a metal band — and locking in a Live Nation deal that puts cans at 120+ music festivals. Meanwhile you're paying $30 CPMs to...
World Cup Sponsorships Reveal Deep Global Political Agendas
The Hidden Politics Of FIFA World Cup Sponsorships Brands are not just logos or a matter of business, they are set in the context of bigger global issues https://t.co/l69zabkNHi @Fire_and_Skill #Geosport https://t.co/8NlkIvGJk8
Great Leaders Recalculate, Not Punish Wrong Turns
Google Maps may be a better leader than most leaders. Take a wrong turn and it does not panic. No blame. No drama. No “let’s unpack this in a meeting.” It just recalculates. And, I love that. Because in work, especially with AI, wrong turns are...
Bond Market Pressures ECB to Hike Despite Credibility Doubts
🇪🇺 Olli Rehn is basically giving up to the idea that the ECB "needs to hike" to "preserve credibility". The bond market is doing part of the heavy lifting for the central bank, but it’s also forcing their hand because...
Japan's Take‑Private Deals Turn Hyper‑Competitive Amid Activist Pressure
As the number of take private deals in Japan continues to DOUBLE year on year, the nature of some of those deals is undergoing a tectonic shift. What we are witnessing in some cases is the dismantling of traditional, friendly,...
SpaceX Hires Top Engineers for AI, No Experience Required
SpaceX is actively hiring world-class engineers/physicists for SpaceXAI, even if you have zero prior experience in AI. Smart humans figure it out fast. Please send an email with ~3 bullet points demonstrating evidence of exceptional ability to ai_eng@spacex.com.