Tariff Confusion: Mixed Signals and White House Denial
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it. The crack team who brought you the trade war are now in Iran.
China's Export Surge Leaves Workers Facing Wage Cuts
Industrial policy FTW: "China's Tariff-Defying Export Boom Leaves Its Factory Workers Behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs." https://t.co/cIfJHANUgW https://t.co/ZIN1PXUzwE
Messier Starts Boost Idea Implementation to 80%
MIT: When teams began with higher clarity, their project implementation rate was ~50%, However, when teams began with lower clarity and worked through a messier and more chaotic process, more than 80% of their ideas were implemented https://t.co/tprVZxbr8B #Agile #Innovation
Align Tasks with Your Energy for Peak Productivity
Energy management is part of productivity. Match your task intensity to current mental state. Stop fighting your own biology.
OWD's Africa Fertility Forecast Wildly Outdated
Our World in Data is usually one of the best sites on the internet, but this chart is kind of garbage. It just assumes slow fertility drops and low growth in Africa, when the first assumption is being falsified by...
AI Adoption Without Purpose Boosts Productivity, Not Impact
“Some orgs. are deploying AI w/out a clear sense of the benefits it will bring—b/c they’re driven by herd mentality. They may end up w/ employees who are more productive yet their organizational contribution is unchanged.” 🔗 https://t.co/5j1dKP8sIs #leadership #management #HR https://t.co/48qplP9WO3
SaaS 1% Conversion Means CPC ≤ 1% of CAC
Most SaaS companies report about a 1% conversion rate - you need 100 visitors to make 1 sale. This means your maximum CPC should be 1% of your maximum CAC. Here’s how to calculate all these things: https://t.co/LXBj3k7vLd
Get AI and Google Visibility without a Wikipedia Page
Wikipedia is included in virtually every major LLM training dataset and I built something to help you set it up. When ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or Perplexity answer "Who is an expert in ___?" — Wikipedia and Wikidata are baked into how...
Repo Stress Forces UST Basis Trades to Unwind, Cut Duration
Macro: leveraged basis/swap trades in USTs unwind as repo stress. Drivers: regulation, supply surge, margin calls. Risk: disorderly USTs and deleveraging. Trade: reduce duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Nation‑states Already Using Store‑now, Decrypt‑later; Adopt PQC Now
"Store now, decrypt later" isn't a theory; it’s a nation-state strategy. If your 2026 roadmap doesn't include Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC), you’re already behind. The 9 realities CIOs can't ignore: 🔗 https://t.co/l36K8t0jnp #RSAC2026 #PQC #QuantumComputing #CIO
Winners Alliance Commits Additional Funding Post‑Bankruptcy
Winners Alliance wrote in a court filing today it plans to continue investing in Grand Slam Track when(if?) the track meet company emerges from Chapter 11. WA has invested already around $20 million in equity and debt
Target CEOs First, Then Users for Fast Wins
Founders: 'Bottom up' and 'top down' selling each have their place. But for your first 100 prospects: Direct to decision maker > CEO navigation > user groundswell Get the quickest path to closed deals.
Reopen Hormuz Strait, Not Ban Oil Exports
Want to understand what's going on with rising oil prices and Iran? I gave a full breakdown on @tbpn. The basics: • There is absolutely no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, whether through rapid victory or through a well-protected convoy. •...
CNN-CBS Merger Explained After Four Decades of Planning
🎙️ NEW @PuckNews: A CNN-CBS News tie-up is 40 years in the making... curious how it would work? @SamFeistDC, the C-SPAN C.E.O. and 33-year CNN veteran, breaks it down: https://t.co/mPte9ax0DE
Navy Halts Escorts, Raising Hormuz Supply‑Chain Risks
US Navy refusing to escort commercial ships thru the Strait. Saying the risk is too high. Is the end of the war not as close as some infer? Is supply chain risk escalating? Can a prolonged war fracture some of...
Find Purpose-Driven Jobs at LA & SF Hiring Events
If you’re looking for a job & want to do good in the world I’m hosting events in LA & San Francisco in April with incredible employers/ recruiters who are hiring ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ LA (April 11) bit.ly/lapavilion26 SF (April 24th) bit.ly/sfpavilion26
Iran Says Current Oil Disruption 4‑20× Worse than Past Crises
Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
GoogleStartups Canada Accelerator Launches with 14 Startups
Our team drives @google's global accelerators, and we've just kicked off the seventh @GoogleStartups Accelerator: Canada cohort. We chosen fourteen outstanding Canadian-founded startups for this class. Learn more about each one: https://t.co/K5sbIaA7Mw
Brazil's High Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Tillis Hopeful Fed Hurdles Cleared for Warsh Chair Nomination
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday he was hopeful that issues surrounding the Federal Reserve would be resolved, allowing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as central bank chair to move forward. https://t.co/7hUfth4Lf9
Mining Hormuz Could Reroute Global Trade Permanently
Iran. Laying mines in the Strait. Is there a point of too many mines that merchant shipping will avoid Hormuz post war? Time required to remove? Who will do it? Will the maritime risks force new ways to serve the...
SPX Reverses After 100‑Day MA, Lower Low Possible
$SPX - The rally continued today until it hit the 100 day MA, but then we had a bearish reversal and closed the day lower. The bottom isn't confirmed yet so there may still be a lower low this week....
Customer Journey Isn't Marketing Journey—Don't Linearize Growth
It's a pedantic but important point to say that the customer journey and the marketing journey are not the same thing, and the marketing journey is certainly not just a subset. When we decide to buy something, there's a certain...
Patreon CEO: Amazed by AI, Furious Over Unpaid Creator Contributions
Patreon CEO Sounds Off on AI: ‘I’m Both Amazed and Furious’: As a Creator, ‘I’m Angry That We Aren’t Being Paid’ for Value of Contributing to AI Models https://t.co/rYw6dV5WNW via @variety
Self‑employment: The True Security Beyond a Safe Job
A full time job feels like the safe option. It isn’t. @cindygallop breaks down why working for yourself can be the real security, and I couldn’t agree more. I took that leap as the main breadwinner for my family, moving from the...
Key CPI, US Budget, and T‑Note Sale Drive Tomorrow
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
High Commodity Prices Spell Trouble for Bonds
Assuming oil and commodity prices stay anywhere remotely close to current, bonds have a big problem. You should read @fejau_inc's piece.
Dollar's Downtrend Persists; Rallies Likely Temporary
The long-term outlook for the US dollar hasn’t changed. We remain in a major downtrend — something worth remembering during brief rallies like the one we just saw. The dollar is still sitting at a critical level, and these bouts of strength...
Bolivia's New President Seeks Crisis Recovery, US Alignment
President @Rodrigo_PazP is attempting to lead #Bolivia out of an economic crisis and realign the country's foreign policy with Washington after two decades of socialist rule. Our interview with him from #ShieldoftheAmericas on Sunday. @sergiomendoza01 https://t.co/wmaCT239QF
Milei’s Inflation Surge Outpaces Even Hanke’s Growth Benchmark
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
Oil Shocks Historically Slash Equity Valuations
Taking a look back to the 1930’s, we can see the various oil spikes over time. The top panel shows the 5-year CAPE ratio, and the bottom panel shows nominal oil prices in brown, and inflation-adjusted oil prices in purple...
Hormuz Tensions Spike Oil, Pressure Global Markets
Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
Stagflation Looms as Iran Tensions Test Market Resilience
With the conflict in Iran becoming seemingly more contracted, the markets seem to be pricing in a less benign outcome despite what has been a Goldilocks backdrop of robust earnings growth, rising margins and productivity, hefty capex spending, an easing...
Envoy Witkoff Explains Iran War Origins and Future Talks
President Trump’s Special Envoy for Peace Steve Witkoff spoke to us in a wide ranging interview about how the war in Iran started, what’s at stake and what’s next for Russia/Ukraine talks https://t.co/wsZJtL7srT
Trump and Israel Inadvertently Empower Iran
Required reading. Trump and Israel, in their infinite militant wisdom, have put Iran in a stronger position now than they were when the “combat operations” (can’t say “war”) started.
Join Expert Panel to Guide Emerging Entrepreneurs' Funding
Call for Experts: Small Business Funding Expert Panel – Harper College This panel will give aspiring entrepreneurs the opportunity to hear directly from experts about funding options, financial strategy, and real-world insights related to starting and growing a business. This is a volunteer engagement,...
Cross‑disciplinary, Inverted, and Creative Thinking Unlock Hidden Opportunities
How to see opportunities others miss: 1) Study a totally different field, then return to the original problem. Apply insights from other domains. 2) Invert the problem. Try to achieve the opposite. 3) Find ways to engage with hyper-creative people. Their thinking will...
Apoorva Joins Carnegie Endowment’s Team Asia
Terrific new addition to #TeamAsia at @CarnegieEndow and a great get for our @CarnegieSAsia program. Welcome, Apoorva.
China’s Rare Earths May Shorten US Iran Strikes
Could China’s rare earth supplies dictate how long US strikes on Iran go on? ..Washington had only two months of rare earths inventory, issue to dominate talks between Trump, Chinese President Xi. No duh. Not "Washington", dozens of US defind companies... https://t.co/NcUbH1CgJX
Your Vision Drives Product; AI and Users Handle Execution
AI writes your code. Users write your roadmap. The only thing you need to write yourself is the vision.
Custom AI Apps Inflate Costs, SaaS Still Wins
CIOs: Thinking of ditching your SaaS stack to build custom AI apps? Don't fall for the trap. The operational overhead of "AI-first" everything is a hidden budget killer. 💸 Find out where the real value lies: https://t.co/Se537FlJwE #CIO #Cloud #AI #EnSW
Röko: Undervalued Serial Acquirer Poised for Growth
The holding company that almost no one talks about, yet it might be one of the most efficient compounding engines. RÖKO owns 29 niche, traditional businesses, runs at 21% margins, generates 14.5% returns on capital, and keeps acquiring new companies every...
Kirana Owners Lose Hours to Wholesale Trips; We Automate
India has 12M+ Kirana stores, yet the average owner still spends 4-6 hours a week traveling to wholesale markets just to keep stock. We’re building [Brand Name] to kill that inefficiency. We’re hiring a Head of Supply Chain & FMCG Ops to...
Oil Prices Swing Amid Naval Escort and Mine Threats
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Container Diversions Jump 360% After Hormuz Closure
Container Shipping Diversions Surge 360% Amid Hormuz Closure. And the inland logistics to move all the loaded and empty containers? Including customs https://t.co/xjirN7c7am
Reality Distortion: 11 Years to Grasp Its Dual Nature
I named something in 2015. Called it Infectious Enthusiasm. Turns out I was only describing half of it. The other half took 11 years of watching founders use it well and badly to actually understand. Here's the truth about reality distortion.
Salesforce to Issue $25B Debt for Share Buyback
Salesforce $CRM is reportedly planning to sell as much as $25 billion worth of debt in order to fund its share buyback plan - Bloomberg
Housing Links Monetary Policy to Demand and Fertility
Ed Leamer famously argued “Housing is the Business Cycle”. This paper adds color to that claim by showing monetary policy ⇒ mortgage rates ⇒ house prices ⇒ home equity borrowing ⇒ aggregate demand. Housing also affects fertility, as @JesusFerna7026 noted...
ONE Nears Controlling Stake in Seaspan Ship Lessor
ONE Moves Closer to Controlling Stake in World’s Largest Ship Lessor Seaspan. Poseidon corp. https://t.co/5AykPtXZq6
Reddit Leads BOFU Queries, Becomes Enterprise Dark Funnel
Reddit absolutely dominates BOFU queries... And it's become the dark funnel for enterprise queries: https://t.co/kBPhUYd3Um https://t.co/pQ7EVmaGLD