One Viral Video Turned a $300 Prototype Into $2B Deal
Before he sold his VR headset to Meta for $2 BILLION... Palmer Luckey was just a teenager tinkering in his garage. Until one video of his goofy prototype caught the eye of a powerful person. Here's how a single post turned a $300 project into tech history:
Q1 Review Highlights Emerging Risks for Global Markets
Always good fun to talk all things markets with my good friend @MrMBrown as we look back at Q1 and what might lie ahead in terms of risks for global markets and the economy https://t.co/byl3LqaH3U
Tariffs Boost Inflation, Stall Growth, Offer No Trade Gains
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
Costco, Adyen, and Netflix: S‑Tier Corporate Cultures
What are some s-tier corporate cultures? Costco, Adyen, and Netflix make the list for me
Economy Thriving: Record Gains Amid Minimal Recession
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. This week’s ADP payroll report was better than expected. The retail sales report was also better than expected and the January report was revised higher. The ISM Manufacturing report was positive for the third month in a row,...
Inbound Content Attracts Brands, Cold Pitches Fail
Cold pitching brands is a losing strategy. Response rates sit in the low single digits, and brands ignore generic emails. Inbound flips the script by making you discoverable through SEO, problem-solving content, and organic brand mentions. Warm inbound leads close at higher rates...
Brent Oil Surges to $141.37, Highest Since 2008
Physical oil hits its highest level since 2008 *DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 https://t.co/OkcbcnE3kg
Tech Founders and Execs Are Returning to Hands‑on Engineering
Founders + C-level folks who come from a software engineering background are all getting back to it. Never seen eng leaders get hands-on with a previous technology at so many different places.
AI-Enabled Goods Lead US Imports in 2025
AI-enabling goods were big drivers of US imports in 2025. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/hsx98RbAJP
End Nepotism: Stop Paying Friends $200K for Fake Jobs
How about stop hiring your friends for bullshit made up jobs at 200k+ a year
Tariffs Cut Trade Deficit to Lowest Since 2020
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020 https://t.co/xhTU8KRbPU https://t.co/pDi3O4iYwF
Hire a Chief of Staff, Reclaim 20 Hours Weekly
Want more time? Fire yourself from 80% of tasks. Hire a Chief of Staff. • Delegate email • Delegate scheduling • Delegate content distribution Save 20 hours a week. That’s 1,040 hours a year of your life back.
Trump Boasts Rapid US Takeover of Venezuela, Sparks Criticism
Trump on the US capture of Venezuela in his address to the nation: "American troops took the country of Venezuela in a matter of minutes...it was quick, lethal, violent & respected by everyone all over the world.” IS THIS REALLY WORTH THE...
Medallia Loan Collapse Erases $5.1B Equity, Media Silent
Medallia loan value continues to decline, with latest marks at 69. With the term loan in distress, the $5.1 billion of equity has certainly been vaporized. This -100% private equity loss surpasses any private credit loss by an order of magnitude. Where's...
Private Credit Strain Could Spike Borrowing Costs, Stall Tech Boom
The Economist: "As private-credit funds’ woes intensify, they will raise the cost of borrowing for firms across the economy, at a time when the Iran war is weighing on companies’ margins. The cost of debt in public markets has already...
S&P 500 Mirrors Intraday Treasury Yield Swings
$SPX is tracking intraday peaks and troughs in Treasury yields very closely as macro correlations remain elevated #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/9bi1kaFWxh
Python Reduces Portfolio Optimization to Four Lines
Stop trading with Excel. Start trading with Python. Portfolio optimization is literally 4 lines of Python code:
Key Metrics to Watch for Tomorrow’s Jobs Day
If you're trying to figure out what metrics actually matter for Jobs Day tomorrow, check out this valuable piece from @PrestonMui and @_vikasbp: How The Fed Is Tracking Jobs Day https://t.co/zWQYamKDaT https://t.co/NeRpIroGPi
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Black Women Entrepreneurs Surge, yet Remain Severely Underfunded
Black women are the fastest growing group of entrepreneurs, and also the least funded. A lot of us aren't just chasing a dream, we're escaping a workplace that didn't value us, didn't see us, didn't make room for us.
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Fix Post‑click Funnels, Turn $1 Into $4
Most businesses think scaling = increasing ad budget. But in reality, 80% of growth comes from fixing what happens after the click. We’ve seen brands turn $1 into $4 just by improving funnels + follow-ups. Traffic gets attention, but systems...
Iran's Strait Fees Threaten Global Shipping Costs
Iran. Will impose fees for using the Strait. How long will the fees last? Financial impact for all the affected shippers/receivers for the different vessel and end use markets? Will some supply chains collapse?
Trump’s Tariffs Echo Nixon, Yet Turn Grimmer
Trump’s protectionist Nixon redux takes a darker turn than the original This is truly the outstanding column on the anniversary of Trump's April Fools' Liberation Day Tariffs. Must read by Alan Beattie in @financialtimes https://t.co/tQg3yTTDU5
Quick Score Reveals Hidden Gaps in Unpredictable Pipelines
Pipeline feels unpredictable for a reason. • Month to month swings • MQL vs quality debates • No clear root cause Usually not one issue. A few small gaps across the system. We built a simple score to spot them fast. Takes 5 minutes. Shows where...
US Soy Exports to China Slightly Up, Q1 Plummets
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...
Strategy Decisions Must Be Rooted in Real Data
One thing I’m relentless about in strategy work 👉 Nothing gets recommended unless it’s grounded in data or market research. Brand decisions. Messaging direction. Funnel structure. Channel mix. All of it ties back to real inputs: → Stakeholder and customer research → Peer and competitor analysis → Patterns...
Newsletter Services Rebrand as Full‑fledged Creator Platforms
All these newsletter platforms have flipped to calling themselves creator platforms. This is great though and makes sense!
Turkey's $40bn Lira Defense Mirrors 2025 Intervention
Factoring in gold, I estimate Turkey has intervened to the tune of $40 bn in March 2026 to defend the Lira. That's the same as in March and April 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, an episode that ended...
Attribution: From Credit Scoreboard to Coordination Engine
Attribution was supposed to tell us which channels deserve credit. It mostly told us which teams should fight about it. Frans Riemersma and I just published The State of Marketing Attribution 2026 (sponsored by CaliberMind), and the finding that hit hardest...
Big‑Stake Decisions Turn Money Into Deployable Ammo
The moment I started making $100M decisions, money stopped feeling like ‘real’ money to me. Sounds impossible to understand until you've been through the conditioning process that leads up to it. By the time the stakes are genuinely terrifying you've already...
Deep Discounts Drive High Redemption Tenders in Blue Owl Funds
Blue Owl Credit Income (OCIC) with 21.9% tendering for redemption and Blue Owl Technology Income (OTIC) with 40.7% tendering for redemption makes sense as both have publicly-traded "sister" funds that trade at large discounts to NAV: Blue Owl Capital $OBDC trades...
OpenAI CEO Informs Disney CEOs About Sora Shutdown
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called both former Disney CEO Bob Iger and new Disney CEO Josh D'Amaro to tell them about the decision to shutter Sora. "I get it," D'Amaro told Altman, the tech exec said in a new interview.
When Executive Presence Behaviors Undermine Leadership Effectiveness
What exactly is "executive presence"? Maybe you know it when you see it. But can those behaviors you learned to lead and operate at the upper levels actually backfire? I found this @HarvardBiz article useful ... https://t.co/G1rGO62gR0 https://t.co/2jPN0IhIF7
Fast‑track Growth Cuts Easy Costs, but Adds Risk
Surya Ramkumar says we are taking the fastest path forward, cutting costs in the easiest parts, which comes with risk. https://t.co/dEEbdckc0d #TPSS #IoT #sustainability #AI #digitaltransformation #PeggySmedley #podcast
UK Leads 35‑Nation Virtual Talks to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
"UK to host talks with 35 countries on reopening Strait of Hormuz," @Reuters https://t.co/Hp8s7zc1T7 British foreign minister Yvette Cooper will chair the virtual meeting of about 35 countries including France, Germany, Italy, Canada and the United Arab Emirates around midday in...
Sovereign Spreads Lag Behind FX in Pricing Fundamentals
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
Markets Hold Steady Amid Iran-Oman Hormuz Protocol
IRAN: DRAFTING PROTOCOL WITH OMAN FOR HORMUZ STRAIT TRAFFIC Interesting that the stock market holding steady today after yesterday's address by President Trump. When stocks stop going down on bad news, worth paying attention.
600
She dropped a 600-word equity research note in 2007. It erased $369B in market cap, ousted a CEO, and made her a Wall Street legend.
Middle Managers: Stay Visible, Turn Forgetfulness Into Influence
How Middle Managers Can Avoid Becoming the Forgotten Middle (or Turn It Around) - CX Journey™ https://t.co/mIzhWR4SGC #middlemanager #management #culture https://t.co/MC3Kz6dBgf
61% of Americans Anticipate Recession Within Year
The latest Ipsos Consumer Tracker finds that 61% of Americans expect a recession within the next 12 months. While recession storm clouds are gathering, a slowdown is BAKED IN THE CAKE. https://t.co/uijU8le8FD
Success Comes From Inner Work, Not Just Harder Grinding
The female founders hitting $500K to $1M aren’t grinding harder than you. They’ve just gone deeper. The inner work, the body work, the identity work. That’s where everything shifted for them. You’re one decision away from going all the way in on yourself.
Private Credit Redemptions Surge, Confirming Multiples Prediction
On the Julia LaRoche show 1 week ago I predicted the next round of Private Credit redemption requests would be a multiple of the last one (which led to gating in some cases). Check out today’s headlines.
Core Truflation Below Headline Signals Consumer Spending Cut
"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase." https://t.co/AZWaQ8HgmF #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/3Qh0AXdqub
Activists, Including Kanen Wealth, Pressure XPOF for Sale
Another activist has joined the fight against $XPOF. Kanen Wealth (owns 4%) is pushing for a sale. The fight won’t be easy, despite activists now owning close to 23% of equity. The board is staggered, and insiders own 40%.
10‑Year Yield
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
China to Curb Gas Power, Replace LNG with Coal, Renewables
China’s exposure to the loss of Middle East LNG China will likely reduce its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in response to the loss of supplies from the Middle East and higher spot prices mostly by curbing gas-fired power generation and...
Europe Gas Rises on Middle East Risks; US Prices Fall
European natural gas prices (TTF) are up 6% to about $17/mmbtu on fears that a prolonged disruption in the Middle East will curb supply 🇪🇺 US gas prices (Henry Hub) are down nearly 1% to $2.8/mmbtu as shale production keeps...
EBITDA Compares, Not Values: Beware Cash Flow Gaps
Charlie Munger famously said: "every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the words 'bullshit earnings'." He's half right. (yah look at me contradicting the eternal god of wisdom) But for real investors mess up when they try and use EBITDA...
Trump's Trade War Threatens Universal Tech Standards
"The global trade war that Donald Trump launched one year ago didn’t just temporarily raise tariffs. It may have also broken the global system that lets technologies like Bluetooth work everywhere." https://t.co/NbTovpYALy