Economic Upturn Threatened by Rising Oil Prices
Global leading indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed, will it slip in rising oil prices? https://t.co/bHBBQw0j9O, my latest blog post.
Hormuz Closure Boosts Russian Crude to Record Highs
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Commodity Exporters Rebound as Brent Spikes, EM Currencies Rally
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil to China Amid Conflict
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
US Oil Independence Shifts Gains to Industry, Hurts Drivers
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
Ecom Founders Turn Sundays Into Strategy Sessions
Everyone on Sunday morning: Sleeping in. Ecom founders on Sunday morning: Reviewing last week's ad performance and planning this week's tests. Different mindset. Different momentum.
Pac O'Shea & Hayyaan Ahmad Drive Round Treasury Conviction
Truth: Pac O'Shea and Hayyaan Ahmad were (and still are) the investment thesis behind our conviction in Round Treasury 🙌
AI's Uneven Impact on Jobs Revealed by New Framework
AI is beginning to reshape the labor market in measurable ways. New research introduces a framework to track how exposed different occupations are to AI capabilities. Early evidence suggests the impact will be uneven, transforming some roles while leaving others largely untouched....
Validate Demand First, Fund Production with Pre‑sales Deposits
Pre-selling funds your product before you build it. Tesla raised $276M in 72 hours from Model 3 deposits and used it to scale production. Oculus pulled $2.4M on Kickstarter and proved demand before a $2B exit. Set 5 to 10% refundable deposits, plan...
Organic Threads Buzz Drives 534 Monthly Visits
A number that keeps me up at night: 534. That's how many people visit BlackTwist from Threads every month. Not from ads. Not from SEO. From Threads itself. People on Threads are talking about us — without us asking. That's the kind of...
South Korea Mulls First Oil Price Cap in 30 Years
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
RTO Mandates Challenge Evidence‑based HR Leadership
Return to office (RTO) mandates: A test of evidence-informed HR leadership @TPShub https://t.co/ROuJEslcup #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #CPO #Hiring #Recruitment #PeopleManagement #Culture #Change #FutureofHR #HRCurator
Helium Concerns Overblown; Oil and JKM Drive Korean Stocks
This is very reminiscent of the “WDC is a zero because of neon gas shortage from Ukraine” episode. The impact of higher oil, or more importantly JKM prices, for Korean equities is a real discussion. This helium stuff is not though.
US Beef Supply Relies Heavily on Mexican Cattle
"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR
Emergence-Based Organizations Redefine Future of HR
Emergence-Based Organizations: A Vision of the Future @ty_weeks https://t.co/qpHvU1jEZx #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #CPO #Hiring #Recruitment #PeopleManagement #Culture #Change #FutureofHR #HRCurator
Stop AI Pilot Overload: Adopt One Clear Strategy
Most organizations rushed into AI with too many pilots, resulting in not enough production outcomes. It's time to define a focused AI vision, align governance, and communicate one clear AI strategy. #AI #GenAI #DigitalTransformation #CIO https://t.co/8OLLAWNSNL
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Nine Strategies to Unlock Gen Z Leadership Potential
If you want practical ways to recognize the strengths, motivations, and leadership potential inside Generation Z, my new book The Future Begins with Z offers nine strategies to help you lead this generation well as they reshape the workplace. Available now...
Hormuz Traffic Stalls; Iran Maintains Chokepoint Control
The Strait of Hormuz has seen virtually ZERO movement in the past 24 hours. IRAN CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE KEY CHOKEPOINT IN THE GULF.
Mediocrity Is Rewarded; Excellence Is Pushed Out
Mediocrity gets promoted. Excellence gets managed out. Competence threatens. The high performer is a mirror nobody wants to look into. So they hire the one who makes them feel safe instead.
Hire AI Apprentices Now, Avoid Looming Talent Crisis
If your AI strategy assumes "we'll just hire seniors later," you don't have a strategy. You have a countdown clock to a talent crisis. Build AI-fluent apprenticeships now, while everyone else is cutting back. #AI #Hiring #CIO #CHRO https://t.co/W7YbwP6jrL
Separate Trade‑offs: Speed vs Quality, Deadline vs Scope
Rather than “speed, quality, cost: pick 2”… My sense is: • speed vs quality -and separately- • deadline vs scope -and separately- • turning speed vs scale Thoughts?
Trump's Iran War Drains Nearly $1 Billion Daily
CNN reports that Trump's war in Iran is costing the US more than $890 MILLION PER DAY. WAR = MASSIVE COST = FISCAL PROBLEMS. https://t.co/NDO5P1kaiE
Productivity: Measure Finished Assets, Not Hours Worked
Most people “work” all day. But very few complete meaningful outputs. I think it's time we stop measuring by hours spent and instead measure by finished assets. Did you ship something concrete? If not, you were busy, not productive.
Israel's 1.8% Inflation Matches Golden Money‑supply Growth
Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU
Mexico's Inflation Aligns with Hanke's Golden Money Growth
Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
Define Policy Once, Enforce Everywhere with GenAI
Regulated orgs should target "define policy once, enforce everywhere," with genAI helping map policy to each provider's primitives. #Cloud #CISO #CIO https://t.co/vBzM21vM14
Markets Silence Geopolitics Until Crisis Strikes
I originally published this financial history article in January 2023, but its core point about how markets have a habit of treating geopolitical risk as background noise right up until the moment it’s not seems relevant again. https://t.co/KjyIjzqpnb
Deliver Double Value, Charge Half, Watch Profits Soar
The best businesses deliver $4 of value, charges $2, and costs them $1 to do it. This is what Figma did, and therefore why it was worth 50x ARR. And why their customers aren’t upset that they’re so profitable. You can too: https://t.co/HFQMWgThom
AI Bots Deliver CFO Insights, Save Hours for Doctors
Dr. Selene Castrejon runs a medical practice. She doesn’t have time for AI experiments that don’t work. Every hour matters. Inside the AI Business Lab® Mastermind, she built trained AI bots that now provide CFO-level insights and marketing strategy—saving hundreds of...
Bold Branding Beats Blending In: Liquid Death’s $1.4B Success
Liquid Death built a $1.4B brand selling water. They packaged it in tallboy cans with heavy metal branding. Did $263M in sales by 2023. Meanwhile you're trying to blend in with your category. That's the gap.
Revenue Swaps Undermine Trust, Lead to Shelfware
This has been happening for a long time. Often there is a potential legitimate reason to buy each other’s stuff, but…it more often than not ends up as shelfware. In diligence, I always compare new customer close dates to new vendor...
Trump Supporters Should Blame Jobs Decline on Weather
If the Trumpers were smart, they would blame the bad jobs numbers on the weather https://t.co/iTCQe8K3EY
Productivity Surge Driven by Deeper Capital Utilization, Not AI
@sffed updated their numbers Friday: Strong 2.6% labor productivity growth driven by higher utilization: deeper use of capital & labor, e.g. existing data centers exerting higher CPU loads. To be clear, this is real & it may be AI-related, but it's not...
US Manufacturing Slows; Iraq Conflict Could Deepen Supply Chain Strain
PMI shows US manufacturing softness. That means supply chains too. What will the Iraq war do?
Break Silos: Use Cross‑Functional Squads for OKR Success
32 Reasons Why OKRs Fail Reason #7: Functional silos. Department OKRs (per the org-chart) deepen fragmentation. What works: "x-functional squads/pods" Merge highly dependent teams into "OKR teams" like "sales/mareting", "prod/eng" Listen for more: https://t.co/FP8sxyXKnh
AI Boosts Productivity, but Also Fuels Fraud Surge
AI cuts costs. AI also cuts the cost of fraud. The same tooling driving efficiency is fueling the fraud surge. Financial services can't run an AI productivity strategy without a parallel fraud controls strategy. AI was meant to boost productivity. It...
U.S. Debt Outpaces Growth, Threatening Investor Portfolios
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
Junk Bond Drop Signals Real Economic Stress
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Iran Conflict Fuels Endless Oil‑price, Russia‑Ukraine Funding Loop
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
Kuwait's Forced Oil Shutdown Deepens Economic Crisis
Adding to Kuwait's economic misery, it has just been forced to shut down its oil production. Since the Global Financial Crisis, Kuwait's economy has tanked. Turkey's has boomed. And contrary to WESTERN PROPAGANDA, Iran's did not collapse, prior to the US-Israeli...
Buy‑the‑dip Mindset May Fail After Latest Shock
Following geopolitical shocks, investors have been conditioned to buy the dip. THIS TIME THEY MIGHT BE WRONG. https://t.co/rbiIiiZSzE
Algorithmic Authority: Essential Insight for Business Psychologists
What #Algorithmic Authority Is and Why it Matters for #BusinessPsychologists @ABPsychologists https://t.co/0Xf6VLBEFE #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #CPO #Hiring #Recruitment #PeopleManagement #Culture #Change #FutureofHR #HRCurator
Design a Resilient Productivity System Beyond Willpower
Motivation is unstable. Energy fluctuates. Life happens. Your productivity system must survive travel, meetings, bad sleep, and chaotic weeks. The Ultimate Productivity Workshop helps you build a realistic, resilient structure that works even when you don’t feel like it. Stop depending on willpower. Start depending on...
Referral Programs Outperform Ads: Let Customers Bring New Ones
Referral programs beat ads on cost and conversions. Your best customers drive growth when you give them a reason to share. Offer rewards for both sides like Dropbox and Uber do. Add simple links in emails, bios, and your site, then track referrals...
Marketing Spend Drives E‑commerce SERP Dominance
eCom is a low opex game. He who can spend the most on marketing wins the SERP. The 25>15>10% evolution is underway. https://t.co/MP1L7T7MZ5
Perfection Delays Profit; Imperfect Action Wins Clients
Too many people are waiting for: • The perfect offer • The perfect funnel • The perfect moment • The perfect message Meanwhile: Their imperfect competitor is closing clients with a Google Doc and conviction. "Perfect" is the enemy of "profitable"
Axel Springer Unlikely to Pursue Big Deals, WSJ Stays Murdoch
NEW @PuckNews: On heels of Telegraph acquisition, Mathias Döpfner told charges that Axel Springer was unlikely to make more big acquisitions in near future, noting that Murdochs were unlikely to sell The Wall Street Journal, which Springer couldn’t afford anyway. https://t.co/1NKCcK3NXz
Parenthood Turns Cyber Resilience Into Personal Responsibility
Cyber resilience feels different when you’re a parent. Security stops being abstract strategy and becomes something much more personal.
Bessent Likely to Lift Sanctions on Russian Oil
To avoid further panic in the oil markets, I anticipate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be forced to "unsanction" more Russian oil trapped in the sanctioned shadow fleet next week. SANCTIONS CREATE NOTHING BUT TROUBLE. IT'S TIME FOR BESSENT...