Clear Outcome Storytelling Secures Leadership Opportunities
When roles are at risk, the leaders who can clearly tell their outcome story win the next opportunity. #DigitalTransformation https://t.co/O0K0QkTUyt
Job Data Flips: Expected Gains Turn Into Losses
if you expected a gain of 55K jobs and the economy instead lost 92K and you thought two months ago the economy gained 48K jobs, but it turns out it lost 17K i mean what are we even doing here
Iran War's Ripple Effect on Economy and Markets
Great to have @Seawolfcap back for this week's "FND" on our WAWD @Substack. We discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the economy & markets & share some thoughts on $CVNA $AXP $APO #GOLD #ENERGY $RVI #privatecredit #AI...
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Asian Unemployment Surpasses Overall Rate in February
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
China Funds 168 Ports, Reshaping Global Trade
China providing money to 168 ports in 90 countries. Add the very large Chinese Cosco shipping firm. China and control of global trade and international logistics. The silent trade war.
Weekend Risk Fears May Trigger Volatility Crush, Buying GDX, SLV
I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due...
AI and Data Personalize Hospitality, Boosting Loyalty and Profits
Data, AI, and loyalty are converging to create truly individualized restaurant and hospitality guest experiences that drive measurable business impact. https://t.co/Z6AVdpOTbF https://t.co/6wO8l57slU
Redefine Success: Prioritize Impact, Fulfillment, and Happiness
Success metrics often ignore important aspects like impact, fulfillment, and happiness. Redefine what success means to you and ensure it aligns with your personal values and goals, not just conventional standards. 💡
Most Launches Fail; Focus on Daily Customer Acquisition
Launches sometimes work. It’s often news when they do, so you think they’re a good idea. It's just: (a) usually they don't work and (b) you need customers every day after and (c) it's a lot of time and energy. Which makes...
Founders Brag Revenue, Ignore Churn; I Expose the Full Picture
AI company founders: Love sharing monthly revenue Love multiplying it by 12 for an annual run rate Hate talking about churn I contribute to this culture by building Senja in public But I’ve tried to paint a more complete picture by talking about the challenges...
AI CFO and Back‑Office Revolutionize Business Banking
Interesting idea. If done right, this could change how banking works for business owners. An AI CFO that helps manage finances and an AI-native back office that speeds up things like underwriting could make the whole experience much faster and simpler.
Tracking Organic Visibility in Public AI Search Cases
It’s always a fun ride checking organic visibility for the public AI search case studies 😂
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
China Halts Fuel Exports as Oil Shock Spikes Prices
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
LevelTen Index Misreads Solar Prices, Not Actual Costs
Okay. I've been seeing this make the rounds. It is just a large misunderstanding of the second graph, to the extent that it's drawing the wrong conclusions. The price of electricity from solar and wind in the US *has* flatlined...
Value Shift: From Public IPO Gains to Private Pre‑IPO Stakes
2000-2015: most of the value in startups is captured by public investors post-IPO 2015-2025: most of the value in startups is captured by private investors pre-IPO 2026-…: public investors recapture value by investing in public VC firms holding private shares?
SPX Closes Weekly Sell‑off, Bearish Outlook Persists
SPX ( US500 ) Sells closed fully today to end the week. Although we still remain bearish on SPX , especially after today's "too bad" US jobs data but we also have to understand that indices can see sharp pullbacks on...
Gold Bulls Near Perfect Fundamentals; Dip Likely Brief
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
Rising $100 Oil Prices May Dampen Middle East Conflict
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
Policy Choices Cost US Rare Earths Dominance
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
China's Anger Grows as Oil Spikes, Summit Uncertain
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
Equities Show Less Volatility Than Commodities
Certainly less of a "shit yourself due to volatility" vibe to the equity basket than the commodity so far. https://t.co/jjg4da39Sf
Culture Mirrors Team Feelings: Get 10‑Ingredient Guide
Culture is a reflection of how the team feels about the workplace. It’s an output, not an input. I created a free PDF resource for leaders that dive into the 10 ingredients for a high-performance culture. Comment “CULTURE” and I’ll send it...
Oil Spikes 43% in Two Months, Trump Eyes Hormuz
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
Gulf Nations Reassess US Deals Amid Israel‑Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
Raise Prices Until Win Rate Falls Below 20%
Founders: Price testing framework: Phase 1: 10 deals at price X Phase 2: 10 deals at 1.3X Phase 3: 10 deals at 1.6X Measure: - Close rates - Sales cycle length - Customer satisfaction Stop raising prices when win rate drops below 20%.
Investors Fear Missing Post‑War Rally More Than Downside
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
Market Ignoring Looming Risks as SPY Nears Peak
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
Chase’s In‑person LLC Account Setup Fails, Email Works Elsewhere
@Chase tried to open a bank account for an LLC in person and it didn’t work. We couldn’t get through the NAIC chooser after almost an hour with your employee. Went to a different bank where we set...
Hedge Funds Stay Growth‑Focused as AI Tools Gain Traction
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: Fresh launches, team moves are keeping hedge funds in growth mode, while Middle East tensions prompt firms in the Gulf to review near-term plans and continuity playbooks. Meanwhile, AI agent workflows are moving from buzzword to toolkit https://t.co/jiiupziBYa
Microsoft Tests AI‑personalized Copilot Discover Feed
Like ChatGPT Pulse... and it takes a while to build -> Microsoft tests AI-generated Discover feed on Copilot web "Microsoft is testing a new Copilot Discover page that generates AI-personalized content feeds based on user history, moving away from MSN...
Servier Spends $2.5B to Expand Cancer Pipeline
Servier to build cancer drug pipeline with $2.5B purchase of Day One https://t.co/aH0z8jt9tr by @realJacobBell $DAWN #biotech
Limited Free Shipping Threshold Boosts Sales Over Unlimited
I've tested 50+ 'free shipping' thresholds. Here's the pattern: 'Free shipping over $50' got more sales than 'free shipping on everything'. Your assumption that customers want everything free is wrong. They want a clear goal. Trust nothing.
War Costs Explode: Iraq $8 Trillion, Iran Ahead
Remember the Iraq war? It was supposed to be a cake walk that would cost US taxpayers a mere $50 billion. IT ACTUALLY COST $8 TRILLION. The US taxpayer will face sticker shock when the bill for America’s war against Iran arrives. WARS...
Texting Over Apps: A Brilliant Design Choice
This is one of the smartest design choices I’ve seen in a long time. Most people are just building another app. But Hey Noah asked, “What if we just used texting?” I just joined the waitlist: https://t.co/is6PZuYF0b
Judgment and Adaptability Outweigh Titles in Leadership
What matters far more is judgment, adaptability, and the ability to lead through uncertainty, not just where someone has worked or which titles theyve held. #Hiring #CIO #CHRO https://t.co/5Ohw7w5l2f
Clean Energy Investment Nears Military Spending Threshold, War Delays
One of my predictions in our Climate Brink year end wrapup was that 2026 might be the first year where global clean energy investment exceeds global military spending. Unfortunately with recent wars we will likely have to wait a few more...
Product‑Market Fit Is a Spectrum, Not a Binary
Most founders think of product-market fit as binary. You have it or you don't. That framing causes a lot of unnecessary anxiety. PMF is a spectrum. You move through stages, and each stage has different work. The question isn't "do I have PMF?" It's...
AI Threatens Office and Finance Jobs, Spares Manual Sectors
this chart from Anthropic on AI and job displacement is basically the HALO trade visualized (the bet that physical economy stocks are the safe haven from AI disruption, coined by @Downtown) Construction, agriculture, transportation: barely touched. Computer & math, office &...
Iran Conflict May Prompt US to Lift Russian Oil Sanctions
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
Play to Your Strengths, Not to Be Well‑Rounded
People always ask how @tobi and I split the job of running @Shopify. The answer is simple. Tobi builds the instruments. He is one of the best product minds in commerce. My job is storytelling. Championing merchants and explaining why what we’re building...
Make Your Ads Bold, Iconic, and Unapologetically Cool
Who said watching an ad has to be boing? Your ads can be bold, truly iconic, and unapologetically cool, just like this one we did for Zenni 😎. Want your ads to stand out? Work with me! https://t.co/X6hPr0FQwZ
Liquidity Overpromises Trigger Cascading Outflows Crisis
My partner @kieranwgoodwin has been so right about this space for over a year which has really sharpened my vision. Outflows beget outflows. Gating begets outflows. Selling some of the underlying portfolio to meet minimum redemptions creates losses and begets...
Fed Rate Cuts Ahead Spark Explosive Metals Rally
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Category Fame Outperforms Household Fame in B2B
Why “Category Fame” Beats Household Fame in B2B Marketing - B2B Marketing Blog | Webbiquity - https://t.co/Xac64vxxFo Research from @LinkedIn
Outcome Ownership Becomes Critical as AI Shrinks Teams
Like many things, owning outcomes & shipping as a super IC has always mattered. I’ve personally seen it over multiple decades from Yahoo to Google to Twitter to Stripe and with people I’ve coached at other companies. It will matter even...
OT Cybersecurity Fails Governance, Not Just Terminology
OT cybersecurity is a governance failure masquerading as a vocabulary issue | Control Global https://t.co/ppRU4DoyMR
Yen Poised to Gain Whether War Eases or Escalates
Yen could be setting up for a win-win type environment. 1. War deescalates, oil down, dollar down. 2. War escalates and everything goes to shit, capital flight from US assets, flight to Yen safe haven. It's interesting to me because there's a...
DXY Near Peak as Metals Rise, USD Fundamentals Falter
Was looking for this dollar rally upon Iran invasion but now it is at a critical juncture. Metals showing life could be signal that this is about as high as DXY gets. Despite this squeeze higher, fundamentals for USD and...