Current Searches Show Less Slowdown Worry than 2022
FWIW - There's a noticeable difference in search trends today versus 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. While inflation searches are comparably elevating, there's nowhere near the concern about an economic slowdown today as there was then. https://t.co/QkWqRG0gXo
Fiction Newsletter Scales to $13k ARR, Targets $100k
My fiction paid newsletter on Substack, Commercial Fiction Club, is up to $13k ARR. Goal is to hit $100k ARR by end of the year. Subscribe here: https://nicolascolefiction.substack.com
Triangulate with Trustworthy People to Improve Decision Odds
My point is that you can significantly raise your probabilities of making the right decisions by open-mindedly triangulating with believable people. Even in a terrible situation, you can still raise your probabilities of making the right decisions by open-mindedly triangulating...
Iran Oil Shock Could Lift U.S. Unemployment 20‑40 Bps
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
We Built the Finance Tool AI Agents Use
Every finance tool is adding an AI chatbot. We went the other direction — we made @tryramp the tool that AI agents use. curl -fsSL https://t.co/dtP4f5DrW5 | bash
US Labor Market's Mixed Signals Signal New Normal
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
Broad Economy Dampens Shelter Inflation, Says QI Research
The Weekly Quill — Letting it Bleed Broad Economy Saps Shelter Inflation From @dimartinobooth and #JonathanBasile of QI Research https://t.co/OdXHMzZrUu #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #shelter #inflation https://t.co/wCt4RAq1nh
Ask Your Scaling Questions for Rapid Fire Answers
On a previous #TeawithGaryVee I was asked "I just wanted some advice on scaling the unscalable" If you have a question for me, drop it here https://t.co/Z96WkBZkB1 so my team can add it to the next Rapid Fire Q&A and follow...
Open‑office Noise Hurts Analysis and Spikes Software Bugs
The background noise in open offices, in multiple experiments, decreases the ability to do analytical work, increase bugs in software, and decrease the ability to find bugs. Open floor plans are just a bad idea for any solo work. https://t.co/Y2KX5HjIEd
Apple's Privacy Focus Limits AI Ambitions, Favors On-Device Models
I’ve argued that Apple is constrained by what it can do with AI by its privacy narrative. Apple *has* trained foundation models, and they have a proprietary ~3BN LLM available on device via Foundation Models Framework. They also offer other...
Export Ban Cuts Gasoline, Spurs Diesel, Jet Fuel Surge
The US has been toying with the idea of a US oil export ban. This might briefly lower gasoline prices in the US, but it would drive up diesel and jet fuel costs and worsen the overall energy shock. ANOTHER HAIRBRAIN IDEA...
Cultural Clash Fuels Innovation, Says Oura CEO
🚨 NEW EPISODE DROP 🚨 CEO of Oura Ring You can't force two cultures into one monoculture 🇫🇮 +🇺🇸 Tom Hale has half his @ouraring team in Finland, half in the US. Two very different worlds. His take: let them stay different. The...
BoE Doubts Iran War Will Spark UK Inflation
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
AI Benefits Evolve to Year‑Round Support with Guardrails
Contributor Spotlight: LaJoi McClendon — AI-powered benefits moving beyond enrollment to year-round support, with the right guardrails. Read LaJoi's take on p. 26 of our eBook. https://t.co/x6mbQ6zZKz #AI #Talent https://t.co/udEnGmVMon
New AI Platform Uncovers Hidden Cancer Targets, Raises $10M
Most cancer drugs go after the same targets: EGFR. PD-L1. HER2. Not because they’re the best targets. Because they’re the only ones we’ve been able to see. RyboDyn Inc. is going after what’s been invisible. The San Diego team, led by Imad Ajjawi, PhD,...
Vetted $16M HVAC Roll‑Up Offers 30% IRR
"I strongly believe there are many high net worth people in finance (IB, hedge fund, PE, etc) who have a desire to allocate some money to LMM deals/roll-ups but don't feel like they have access to vetted deals." How about an...
Essential 80/20
Your $200K/year survival kit. Don't have time to read them all? Here's the 80/20 concepts (a thread🧵):
Plan Monthly, Film Weekly, Repurpose Daily for Efficiency
My new content workflow... 📆 Monthly: strategy + planning only. No creating. 📆 Weekly: film + edit same day. Done in under 2 hours. 📆 Daily: 1 hour on supplemental content from that video.
Two Red Flags Equal Unqualified Founder Leads
Founders: Discovery call red flags checklist: 🚩 No clear pain metrics 🚩 Can't name decision maker 🚩 No similar tool spend 🚩 No timeline pressure 🚩 Won't share budget range Any 2 flags = unqualified. Save your time.
Weak Dollar Fails to Lift Emerging Markets Amid Rising Yields
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
OpenAI’s Promised Rapid Shifts Clash with Economic Weight
"Please expect a very high rate of change from us" Sam Altman told us six months ago. But OpenAI isn't a plucky startup. It's a giant, deeply tied to our current and future economy. Maybe take a breather on the changes...
Unconstitutional Tariffs Deliver Costs Without Revenue—A Lose‑Lose
A wry aside (inspired by @stanveuger): Implementing unconstitutional tariffs ensures you get all of the distortions and costs of tariffs, and (assuming refunds are required) none of the revenue. Lose lose.
5s30s
5s30s just took out the low from Monday. Back end flattening aggressively post auction https://t.co/KwTSaaxDhY
Budderfly Secures $550M to Expand Energy-as-a-Service
Budderfly raises $550 million to scale its Energy-as-a-Service platform #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: https://t.co/mVu3KQ8ZPN
Administration to Submit FY2027 Budget Request Next Week
Confirming recent rumors that the Administration will send the FY2027 budget request to Congress next week, Sen Approps Cmte chair Susan Collins tells Politico it's supposed to arrive at the end of next week. https://t.co/eF2p9GpD3K Vought to testify to...
Regain Ad Control, Boost Sales 69% in 10 Days
I spoke with a founder in November who had her sales get cut in half almost immediately after hiring an agency. She had no idea what they had changed or why it was happening, and the agency couldn't give her a...
CIOs Shift to Variable AI Budgeting Amid Token Volatility
#CIOChat Q4: Endgame: If more IT workloads consume tokens, budgeting shifts from fixed to variable, a major $ issue. How are CIOs adapting financial models like FinOps for AI, chargebacks, or automated guardrails? How do you manage volatility while still enabling...
Network Authentically: Ask Black Peers About Their Experience
If you're a Black person you should look to network with other Black people. If you reach out to Black professionals at companies you're targeting, skip the pitch. Lead with something real. Ask how their experience has been as a...
Google Revises Shopping Ads Political Policy Worldwide
ICYMI: Google will update its Shopping Ads political content policy in several countries https://t.co/YI3Sj141FI https://t.co/5WbKVkbuZl
War Prolongs Oil Price Surge Despite SPR Release
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
Instagram Launches Reels Ads for TV, Movies, Cultural Events
Instagram to Sell Reels Ads for Viral TV and Movies Content, ‘Cultural Moments’ Like NFL Games and Black Friday https://t.co/yxkIQNZSec via @variety
Sharpie Maker Warns Tariffs Threaten Tennessee Reshoring
The maker of Sharpie - praised by Trump & other US protectionists - says its "investments in production in Tennessee rely on imported equipment, and the company worries that higher tariffs on those machines could make reshoring and local production...
Most B2B Deals Closed Before First Call
The Game is Rigged: Why 80% of B2B Deals are Won Before the First Call by @Timothy_Hughes https://t.co/PsZtzMt7s4 @DLAIgnite #SocialSelling #DigitalSelling #Sales #SalesTips #SalesLeader #Salesforce #Marketing #Leadership #MarketingStrategy #MarketingSuccess https://t.co/fpL3ieWFvG
U.S. Real Median Household Income Peaks 2024
U.S. real median household income 2017: $71,870 2018: $74,030 2019: $78,250 2020: $81,580 2021: $81,270 2022: $79,500 2023: $82,690 2024: $83,730 Calendar-year 2025 income report (which will contain the official 2025 median household income) should drop around September 2026) Source: U.S. Census...
AI Token Usage Hidden; Teams Need Clear Visibility
#CIOChat Q1: AI token spend is now embedded in everyday work, such as copilots, agents, but often without clear visibility. Where is token consumption growing most in your org? How are you making it measurable/visible at team and workload levels? https://t.co/tnw9OYIb9f
JPMorgan Unveils CDS Basket to Short Major Tech Debt
JP Morgan has launched a basket of credit default swaps designed to let hedge funds bet against the debt of $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ORCL, $META, and $MSFT 👀 https://t.co/snSNwBvm2p
Iran War Forces Asian Airlines to Add Surcharges
Airlines are being hit HARD in Asia by the war in Iran. Both KLM and Air France have added SURCHARGES on long-haul flights while airlines cancel HUNDREDS of other flights. KLM & AF SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
KLAR's Efficiency Gains Outshine Loan Loss Concerns
Investors focus too much on $KLAR loan losses provisions because of strong loan volume growth. They should focus more on $KLAR becoming a more efficient business by improving operating leverage. - Revenue per employee 3.6x from $344K to $1.24M. - The number of...
Ignore Office Politics, and They'll Control You
You are a manager now. If you do not play politics, the politics of the organization will eventually play you. THE HARSH REALITY:
Israel Builds Buffer Zone, Illegally Occupies 8% of Lebanon
In an attempt to ANNEX southern Lebanon, Israel is now setting up fortifications & creating a so-called “buffer zone” between Israel & Lebanon. Israel is already ILLEGALLY occupying about 8% of Lebanon’s territory. https://t.co/9FEQdXkvKH
United Flight Attendants Secure $100‑plus Hourly Wage After 5.5‑year Freeze
United Flight Attendants Reach Deal — Top Pay Would Exceed $100 An Hour After 5.5 Years Without A Raise - View from the Wing https://t.co/kKjjYrMT4u
Goldman Sachs Cuts India Rating, Nifty Target to 25,900
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Asian Nations Dumped
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
Join Tuesday Demo of New Metrics Engine Software
I'm providing a quick overview of my new metrics engine software on Tuesday. Save your seat here: https://t.co/8LmsFlZ8bu If you can't make it, a replay will go out. https://t.co/CDzvmA4cIP
From Near-Shutdown to $40M: Bolt's Rapid AI Pivot
On April 16, I'm sitting down with Eric Simons, co-founder & CEO of @boltdotnet, for an in-depth chat on how @boltdotnew went from near-shutdown to $40M in 5 months. We're gonna go deep on the pivot, the decisions, and how...
Spot Real Adoption, Not Just Early Interest
Execution is visible. Adoption is not. Many teams are active in the market, but unclear on where real demand is forming. In AI-driven categories, this becomes harder. Strong demos and early interest can mask a lack of commitment from the...
Choose Freedom over Unicorns: Bootstrap Your Tech Lifestyle
The advice I give is NOT for founders who think they're creating unicorns, decacorns, or the next Anthropic. What I care about is showing that beautiful tech lifestyle businesses can be built outside the VC ecosystem. I'd rather...
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Stop Marketing Money Leaks with a Deep‑Dive Audit
Hello Thriends- I am gauging interest in a multi-day marketing leak audit. I’d use my investigative journalism skills to find where you’re marketing and comms are bleeding, and map out a plan with you 1-1 to plug said leaks. It’s a...
Iran Clears Friendly Bulk Carriers Through Hormuz, Trade Resumes
Iran shepherds friendly bulkers through Hormuz ▶️Evidence the Islamic Republic is allowing its own trade through the Strait of Hormuz ▶️Increase in westbound transits after weeks-long lull ▶️Other bulkers that have waited in the Arabian Sea are now on the move towards the...