Leverage Boosts Stock Volatility, Not Business Quality
"Financial leverage increases equity volatility, not business quality." Leverage doesn’t make a business better — it just makes the stock wilder. ⚠️📈 Financial leverage amplifies equity volatility. When debt is added to the capital structure, small changes in operating performance translate into much larger swings in shareholder returns.
Severe Unemployment & Stock Crash Trigger Major Fiscal Response
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
Founder-Product Fit: Solve Your Own Problem
I was building products nobody wanted, burning money on APIs, and watching SaaS after SaaS stall out. So yeah, not my finest chapter. And when you're stuck in that loop, you start asking different questions. The one that changed everything: "Am I solving MY...
S&P’s Calm Mask Hides Software Slump, Rising Defaults
The S&P 500 looks calm, but look under the hood. Software stocks are DOWN ~30%. Defaults are CLIMBING. Private credit is AT RISK. https://t.co/qJPf95n11Z
BofA Survey Turns Ultra‑Bearish on Dollar, Go Long
The BofA fund manager survey has never been this bearish on the dollar. It is time to bite your lip and start being a lonely dollar long. I have a sample size of one here, arguably a sample size of...
Paramount Submits Upgraded Offer to Acquire WBD
New: Paramount has made a new and improved offer for WBD. Expect WBD to respond soon. https://t.co/CW7caCn4xm
New Brand Boosts Profitability, Prepares March Scale
First month on with a new brand - already improving profitability overall and looking to scale moving into March. New Offer + New account Strategy. Next week we launch first round of UGC we curated and first large batch of ad creative....
Mega‑fund Focus Forces Niche Managers to Specialize
LPs wrote $50 billion in checks to 6 firms. Andreessen Horowitz → $15B Thrive Capital → $10B Lightspeed → $9B General Catalyst → $8B Founders Fund → $4.6B Dragoneer Investment Group → $4.3B Meanwhile, new fund closings dropped nearly 50% in one year from 2,100 to 1,117. LPs...
Annual Returns Converge Across Correlations, Volatility Varies
I vibe coded a widget to show the idea of the blog post below. It simulates yield curve evolutions and equity market returns. Then it plots the distribution of annualized returns and volatilities over a given horizon using...
Big $400M Firm Forgets Favicon, Obvious SEO Slip
$400M software company. No favicon in the SERPs. Took me 3 seconds to find the problem. 🤣🤦♂️ https://t.co/KAHXJpjGXY
Offices Evolve Into Performance‑Boosting Social Ecosystems
The office is no longer a "container" for desks ... it’s a catalyst for performance. As we hit 2026, the workplace has shifted from static square footage to a dynamic ecosystem built on social health & hospitality.
Iran's Inflation Hits 79.1%, World’s Second‑Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 79.1%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Z869QfIwJT
Hims Beats EPS, Guides Revenue Above Estimates
HIMS Q4 2025 earnings: • Revenue $618M vs $617M Est. • EPS $0.08 vs $0.05 Est. • Gross Margin: 72% vs 74% Est. • Subscribers: 2.5M (+13% Y/Y) FY26 Guidance • Revenue $2.8B vs $2.7B Est.
Why Connecting AI Everywhere Fails, Embrace Autonomous Agents
Built an MCP server recently? Did developers actually use it, or is it collecting dust? 😵 I'll be speaking at @theleaddev London (June 1-2) about why "connecting AI to everything" doesn't work and what actually does when building tools that...
Old AI Giant Falls as Young Startup Takes Over
IBM, a 115-year-old company, pioneered AI with Watson a decade ago. Today, a 3-year-old startup (Anthropic) just wiped $28 billion off IBM’s market cap. Mercy is for the weak.
SEO Agency's AI Hype Hides Paid Self‑promotion Tactics
Another SEO agency that claims to be a great partner to lead clients into the AI search era This one not only uses self-promoting listicles, but clearly pays to be listed on everyone else's "best of" listicles too I'd be a bit...
Gold Tops Global Reserves, Outshines All Assets
Gold is officially the most popular reserve asset in the world. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/A7A3qj1YGx
Global Imbalances Drive International Payments Problems
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
RBA Holds Quarterly Trimmed Mean, Shorten AUD Duration
RBA probes monthly inflation gauges but sticks to quarterly trimmed mean; policy shift distant, volatile. Risk: noisy swings. Trade: shorten AUD duration until monthly series confirms trend. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
AI Is Redefining How We Build Software
The first recording from The Pragmatic Summit is available to watch for anyone: How AI is Reshaping the Craft of Building Software. With @thsottiaux (Head of Codex, OpenAI) and @vijayeraji (CTO of Applications, OpenAI) A very good one. Watch it here: https://t.co/apNHGykKbg...
Google’s AI Detection Triggers Ongoing Traffic Drops
Wow, the Jan 21 unconfirmed update was a bloodbath, and impacted sites are still dropping to this day This is another one in the marketing space; lots of AI-assisted content, self-promotional listicles, who/what/when content, etc. I think Google is getting better at...
Launching SaaS Mastermind for $40K+ MRR Founders
I’m thinking of starting a SaaS mastermind ✨ Other SaaS founders ✨ Over $40,000 MRR ✨ Bootstrapped or seed only ✨ High intent / dialed in Any #buildinpublic people interested?
Insider Take‑Private Looms as Settlement Clears Weedmaps Squeeze‑Out Path
No Cheap Squeeze-Outs: My Process Letter to the Weedmaps Board The settlement AIP cleared the path for insiders to strike. With a renewed take-private looking imminent before the proxy, I just served formal notice to the $MAPS Special Committee. See full presentation,...
Top 10 Early‑Stage VC Funds for $250K+
If you're EARLY, 10 pre-seed VC funds to target for $250K+ for your company: - Precursor Ventures - Hustle Fund - Outlander - Y Combinator - Initialized Capital - Pear VC - Zeal Partners - Notation Capital - Liquid 2 Ventures - First Round Capital Connect with the partners of the...
Buy VITL on Weakness: Target $44‑$50
Macro: VITL hits 52‑wk low $25.47; -22% Y/Y, -47% 6m. Fundamentals: LTM profit; analyst PTs $44–60. Risks: demand, ERP, guidance cuts. Trade: buy weakness to $44–50. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
CIOs Won’t Replace Core Enterprise Apps with AI
Not one CIO we are talking to is vibe coding a replacement to $NOW or $SAP or $ORCL or other critical business apps. It simply isn’t happening and it won’t. 👀 This doesn’t mean AI isn’t disrupting some software, but this...
Master These 5 Essentials to Boost Clothing Sales
If you’re going to sell clothing, you need to understand these 5 things. This is why your content flops and your sales stay stuck.
Checklist to Safely Deploy AI Agents Without Hallucinations
RT How do you really know when an AI agent is ready for production and not about to hallucinate, overshare data, or torch your UX? I lay out a practical release checklist. #AI #DevOps @Star_CIO https://t.co/1tg10UmJNv
AI Governance and Cybersecurity Frameworks at Virtual Summit
I'm excited to be speaking today at the Virtual AI Summit on the cybersecurity implications of AI! I'll be talking about practical frameworks for AI deployment and oversight. If AI is on your roadmap, governance join me there today: https://buff.ly/6C9RTgu
Simplify GTM: One Goal, One Audience, One Offer
If your GTM feels stuck, run this experiment. It will take you 30 days: 1. Pick ONE growth goal. Pipeline, activation, or expansion. Not all three. 2. Pick ONE audience. Not "SMB + mid-market + enterprise." One. 3. Pick ONE...
AI Success Depends on Retrieval, Not Just LLMs
People think AI apps are just “prompt → answer.” Real AI products use RAG. DoorDash: retrieves past support cases + KB articles, adds guardrails, and an LLM judge checks quality. LinkedIn: uses a knowledge graph from tickets to solve issues faster. Bell: employees query...
CBO Update Shows No Near-Term Deficit Solution
This month the CBO released their first updated budget projection since January 2025. In short, there is no solution in sight to reduce the fiscal deficit. https://t.co/r8ycIrViqQ
Green Tech Production Quadruples, Outpaces All Consumer Goods
Technology production (green) * ~50 in 2000 * ~190 today Nearly a 4x increase over 25 years This is the only category with powerful long-term structural growth. It recovered strongly after 2008 and exploded again post-2020. Everything else? Mostly flat. Industrial Production: Consumer Goods (2017...
We Can Cushion Job Losses, Yet Resistance Persists
This is why I think the @Citrini7 scenario is plausible: We demonstrated that we have the power to minimize employment disruptions associated with big supply shocks and shifts in demand... ...but everyone decided they hated it.
Open Cosmos Seeks $200M for European Ka‑band Broadband
.@Open_Cosmos seeks ~$200M in financing ahead of June & Sept deployment deadlines for its Liechtenstein-licensed Ka-band broadband constellation. Co says Europe should rally around it. @defis_eu @aee_gob. https://t.co/0cbcoHxGVq https://t.co/OZBFODhK9v
Beyond ARR: Key Metrics for Usage‑Based SaaS
What financial metrics do usage-based companies track when ARR isn’t the North Star? From revenue growth to NRR, AI adoption signals & RPO — here’s what truly matters 📊 Watch the full breakdown ➡️ https://t.co/g5IoWwadNz #SaaS #UsageBasedRevenue #SaaSMetrics https://t.co/hz15OquSg6
HZO Faces Activist Pressure, $35 Bid and Strategic Review Demand
$HZO continues to face pressure from Donerail. - Activist/bidder is opposing the CEO’s re-election at the upcoming AGM. - Donerail has reiterated its $35/share offer. - Levin Capital (~3%) is also calling for a strategic review after HZO failed to capitalize on...
Chinese Investors Surge Gold ETF Holdings by 52%
The Chinese are buying gold ETFs like HOT CAKES. According to the World Gold Council, China’s gold ETF holdings rose from 188.8 tonnes at the end of August 2025 to 286.3 tonnes by the end of January, a 52% increase. BUY GOLD,...
AI Boosts Engineer Efficiency, Driving Higher Demand
It is becoming clearer that Jevons paradox applies to competent human software engineers. If AI makes them more efficient and more productive, demand for their work will increase.
Wispr Flow Delivers Near‑perfect, Instant Multilingual Transcription
Holyshit.. when did Voice Al get so good? This voice Al called Wispr Flow just transcribed Eminem's fastest without missing a single word. It has >> 90% zero edit accuracy >> 500 ms response time >> works in 100+ languages >> works in all apps >> understands...
Gilead Deal Validates FDA One‑Trial Path, Boosts IMMX
$GILD $ACLX $7.8 billion acquisition 68% premium, Ph3 just starting. Validates new FDA policy for a single pivotal trial validated by BLA acceptance. Large pharma moving faster, de-risked. $IMMX thesis and data grows stronger, 95% (CR), same parallel strategy, and clear...
Strategic Choices, Not Platitudes, Uniquely Align Your Company
ICYMI: Fresh new article dropped: Strategy is an integrated set of choices that uniquely positions your company. But what kinds of choices? Not the crappy platitudes like “We put customers first.” The kind that actually aligns everyone in the company to win,...
Seena Labs Defends Against LLM Prompt Injection Attack
Very proud moment of our architecture so far at Seena Labs. We got someone asking the Seena interviewer agent to reveal some code and attack us and this was Seena's response. If anyone has good advice/ resources on how to...
AI Hype Overstates Marketing Team Replacement Potential
I am bullish on AI but let's call a spade a spade: these silicon valley pricks promoting "we replaced 80% of our marketing team with AI agents" are full of dog shit. Sure, this is a buzzy "cool" thing to...
Energy Firms Ramp up Lobbying for Venezuela Opportunities
👀 #Energy-related companies' interest in opportunities in #Venezuela is starting to show up in lobbying reports. Expect to see more of this K Street action, as we reported in this morning's @axios Future of Energy newsletter. #OOTT (1/3)
Data Center Staffing: The Hidden Bottleneck for AI Success
The Most Limiting #AI Success Factor Maybe… #DataCenter Staffing (Why #AIDC recruiting is so difficult) @DrJohnSullivan https://t.co/XrhHIFDeWe #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #CPO #Hiring #Recruitment #PeopleManagement #Culture #Change #FutureofHR #HRCurator
Rupee's Fall Fuels 349% Surge in Gold Imports
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
Virality Doesn't Equal Follower Growth on X
If you're chasing virality on X, it does nothing for your followers. Here are analytics from two days, side by side. One with 30k views, and one with over a million. The 30k day saw a lot more followers. The viral post?...
June 13 2026 Deadline Ends Tariff Refund Protests
The key deadline your company needs to be aware of to make sure you're eligible for tariff refunds is June 13, 2026. After that date you will not be able to file protests for entries filed on February 4th,...
Britain’s Chagos Choice Signals Resolve to China
Britain’s decision on the Chagos Islands is more than politics. It shapes how strategic rivals — especially China — interpret UK resolve, alliances and influence. This analysis explains why this matters in the context of great-power competition and what it reveals about...