US‑China Gap Lies Beyond Financialization Share of GDP
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/xEHnlcp2ZN
Know Your Scale: One‑person? Plan Your Exit
Are you a "0-1" person or a "2-50" person or a "100-5000" person? Often we don’t know until we’re already in the thick of it. You think you know, only because there’s comfort in the familiar. But maybe you really are just...
FOMC Minutes May Spark Q1 Market Shift
dailyanalysts 🚨 WEEK AHEAD ALERT: Feb 16-21 🚨 Three catalysts could define your portfolio's Q1. Markets closed Monday for Presidents' Day, but Tuesday through Friday is packed with market-moving data. S&P 500 is flat YTD. Nasdaq down 3%. Consumer confidence at DECADE LOWS. Here's...
S&P's Calm Mask Hiding Rising Dispersion and Volatility
The S&P 500 may appear calm on the surface, yet index-stock dispersion has increased dramatically and SPX has now slipped below the critical 6,900 level. With put skew rising and VIX expiration ahead, volatility risk is building. Read our latest...
Prediction Markets Turn Insiders Into Profit-Driven Actors
This is the kind of stuff that I don't understand about g̶a̶m̶b̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ prediction markets: doesn't it not only encourage insider betting, but also insider action? This is the wildest conflict-of-interest-as-a-Service platform I've ever seen. For ANY kind of event.
Volatility Rises, Liquidity Dips, US Premium Deflates
What's on tap for the week ahead? An increased frequency of volatility meets a holiday liquidity gap, while a run of event risk weighs in on the steadily deflating US premium. https://t.co/17IH2lFIn0 https://t.co/AlKhX25xxn
FTSE250 Awaits Breakout Above 23,585 Amid Sideways Trend
#FTSE250 needs Breakout 23585. Doji going sideways. Support 22816, 22226. RSI 62 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Small Up Candle on Weekly and Sideways. Top Bollinger Band 23547. Midpoint Line 23330. Bottom Band 23118.
DAX Poised for Breakout as MACD Bull Cross Nears
#DAX doji Candle and Sideways. Resistance ATH 25508. Support 24272, 23924. On verge MACD Bull Cross. RSI 53 near Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Doji on Weekly and Sideways. Top Bollinger Band 25113. Midpoint Line 24800. Bottom Band 24500.
Cuba's Power Generation Falls Below Half Demand.
ENERGY CRISIS IN CUBA: Granma, the mouthpiece of the Cuban regime, says that electricity generation in the island is covering less than half the expected demand. The island is suffering the largest energy shortages since the collapse of the Soviet...
Warner Bros Eyes Paramount Deal Despite Netflix Matching Right
New: Warner Bros. is considering re-engaging with Paramount following its latest offer + pressure from some shareholders. WB still has a binding deal with Netflix, which would have the right to match any offer. Scoop with @MichelleF_Davis https://t.co/WLdpdeS0gc
Upcoming Week Packed with GDP, PCE, FOMC Insights
Get my newsletter Tuesday morning: https://t.co/dSU3TT2kZX Busy week coming with GDP, Core PCE, FOMC Minutes $PANW $ADI $WMT $DE https://t.co/7mNeUbi7R9
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
Know Ownership, Monitoring, Kill‑Switch Before Launching AI
Before launch, you should know: Who owns this agent? How will it be monitored? What are the kill switch and rollback paths? If that's unclear, you're not releasing - you're gambling. #DevOps #CIO #AI https://t.co/1tg10UmJNv
Deal Success Depends on Info, Not Just Quality
What no one talks about in VC: Getting a deal over the line at your firm requires WAY more than just sourcing a good deal. It requires: 1) Getting the correct information about the startup 2) Pitching that information in a compelling way Many...
US Employment Costs Rise 0.7%, Lowest Since 2021
US employment costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, just under forecasts of 0.8%, and the lowest level since Q2 2021.
AI Hype Persists, yet Macro Data Shows No Productivity Boost
Three years after ChatGPT, AI is everywhere, except in macroeconomic data. If AI’s value is in productivity enhancement, it's still not showing up in the numbers. AI = LOTS OF HYPE. https://t.co/x96Abr0tD7
Tech Pressure Rises, Defensives Gain Amid Market Crossroads
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure. 2. Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels. 3. Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks. 4. Private equity stocks are also coming under...
Outsourcing Code: Does It Diminish Your Thinking?
Question for my technical friends: I'm a big believer that writing is thinking. It's why I'm hesitant to outsource any writing that matters (like an investment memo) to LLMs, slop factor aside. Is coding thinking? And by that I mean, if...
AI Chatbots Turn Into Digital Real Estate for Ads
AI chatbots are becoming the next digital real estate, and ads are moving in. As usage scales and infrastructure costs rise, monetisation models are shifting from subscriptions alone to advertising layers embedded in conversation. The real question is not whether ads will...
Core Skills for 2026: Leadership, Data, EPR, Governance
The most valuable skills for 2026 are not mysterious. Delivery leadership, data literacy, EPR fluency, governance, and communication keep reappearing. These skills survive restructures, tech shifts and policy cycles. Career Navigator 2026 outlines the full skills picture.
Scaling a Startup Is Harder Than Starting One
Why it’s never been easier to start a company, and never been harder to scale one with Brian Halligan Brian is Sequoia in-house CEO coach, long-time CEO and co-founder of HubSpot , and more than anyone I’ve ever met, a...
Revamp Agile Now to Harness AI’s 2026 Edge
Agile was built for a different era. Here are 7 urgent reasons leaders must revisit agile practices if they want real advantages from AI in 2026. #Agile #AI #DigitalTrailblazers https://t.co/RZY9U0X8ws
East Asia, Africa Match West; MENA, South Asia Lag
East Asia has labour-market gender gaps comparable to those in Europe and North America. Sub-Saharan Africa is also surprisingly similar (in the formal labour market). MENA and South Asia have massive gender segregation and LatAm and Carib are surprisingly in-between....
CA VC Diversity Law Burdens Founders with Redundant Data Requests
I'm surprised I'm not seeing more public pushback on California's new "Fair Investment Practices by Venture Capital Companies Act." It applies to *any* VC firm that does business in CA (the bar is met if you've invested in a CA-based...
Founders on Camera Build Trust, Fuel $100M Growth
If you’re a founder of a brand doing sub $100M and you’re NOT on camera making content for organic, ads etc… You’re putting yourself at an extreme disadvantage People want to buy from genuine people - not from brands. Create a brand...
CFOs Embrace Agentic AI for Strategy, Shy From Treasury Risks
How Agentic AI Went From Zero to CFO Test Runs in 90 Days survey by @pymnts https://t.co/6MXgAdb3Fx Enterprise CFOs in the US are interested in using agentic AI for strategic planning, but cautious about using it for treasury, risk and compliance. https://t.co/2NioUOuMrE
Simplify Systems, Not Competition, to Grow Small Business
Most small businesses fail from chaos, not competition. Growth starts with simple systems, clear checklists, and tools for scheduling, invoicing, and bookkeeping. Know your best customers, ask for feedback, and speak in their words. Build a small circle of mentors, track cash flow,...
Consolidate AI Projects for High‑Value, Measurable Impact
If you're serious about AI in 2026, start killing or consolidating scattered experiments and back a smaller set of high-value use cases with clear ownership, metrics, and governance. Less chaos, more compounding value. #CIO #AI https://t.co/VtuS5rQ0ZG
AI Overload Overwhelms Marketers: Find Calm Amid Chaos
We've never been given more tools than ever before to do our jobs in marketing. With the proliferation of AI everything should become easier, faster. And yet, I feel more overwhelmed than ever before in my entire adult working life which...
Shift AI Focus From Pilots to Measurable ROI
RT Boards are asking, Where is the ROI? not How many pilots do you have? This session is about moving from experimentation theater to outcome‑driven AI portfolios. #CIO #AI @Star_CIO https://t.co/xfrVmpSIJN
ROI Works for Pebbles, Not Sand or Rocks
ROI is a good way to prioritize tactical tasks, or 'Pebbles.' ROI is not a good way to prioritize tiny tasks (‘Sand’) nor the most important large things (‘Rocks’). Here’s why: https://t.co/gy7ac3Aqmy
Structure Unlocks Clarity, Stops Rambling
Most people don’t ramble because they lack ideas. They ramble because they lack structure. Before you build slides, write paragraphs or even rehearse. Ask yourself: What pattern of organization best serves my message? Structure is not restrictive, It is liberating. When you choose...
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
U.S. Economy Near Soft Landing Amid Multiple Risks
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
Lagarde: Incentives, Not Taxes, Keep Capital in Europe
ECB President Christine Lagarde says creating incentives for investments in Europe is a better approach to prevent capital outflows to other regions than imposing taxes https://t.co/ULSkU54mw5 via @Rauwald @mcnienaber https://t.co/KxLtLZqWrp
Post‑Purchase Friction Is the Real Brand Killer
Misunderstood Marketing - : The Delonghi-Bosch Pivot: Why Post-Purchase Friction is the Real Brand Killer https://t.co/9vxehhnI4s
ECB Rate Hike Expected to Strengthen Euro, Says Capital Group
The ECB will raise interest rates at least once this year, significantly boosting the euro against the dollar, according to Capital Group, the $3.3 trillion asset manager https://t.co/CFxgbQlz0Q via @Sujata_markets https://t.co/6EBSHD6SYI
Eurasia Holds 81% of Trade‑Linked Jobs Globally
81 percent of employment worldwide that is linked to trade in goods and services is in Europe and Asia. Globalization is a eurasian story. Chartbook 433 just dropped. Check it out. https://t.co/jq1gYjLP4X https://t.co/I3iRrM8XEN
Empower Employees, Not Just Automate, to Meet Expectations
Automation alone is not the answer. Institutions that replace people instead of empowering them will struggle to meet rising customer expectations. https://t.co/3KhyMMpnPe
Consumption, Not Exports, Powers China's Growth
Why smart people say that exports “contribute” to China’s growth rather than “driving” it: almost all the time, growth in consumption is, in fact, a bigger contributor. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/NNNTMiyj6N
Core Services Inflation Stays Tame, No Overheating Signs
There's lots of commentary that US inflation will overheat, but there's no sign of that. My proxy for core services inflation was very well behaved in all of 2025 (purple) and the Jan. '26 data point (pink) was much more...
Hedgeye Nowcast Predicts Slowing Inflation, Yields Drop, Gold Rises
Hedgeye's Models vs. The Fed Reminder on the Hedgeye Nowcast for SLOWING US Inflation (which drove Bond Yields lower and Gold higher late this wk) Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a...
Europe Doubts US LNG Reliability Despite Past Optimism
A decade ago, I wrote an essay @ForeignAffairs about rise of US LNG w subhead "The benign energy superpower." https://t.co/P9r14hfb11 This week @MunSecConf, the Q I got most was whether Europe can trust US LNG to be reliable. And privately, senior...
Repeat Purchases Matter More than High Margins
I lost $13k on a tech gadget with 'insane margins.' Nobody bought it. I tested a consumable with thin margins. Scaled to $70k/month on repeat orders. The market doesn't care about your margin goals. It cares about repeat purchases. Test...
US Controls Slow China, Ignite Homegrown Chip Drive
NYT: "While Washington’s export controls have slowed China’s chip development, they have added fuel to Beijing’s decade-long push to make strategic technologies like semiconductors and A.I. entirely at home." https://t.co/OcHRXob06N
WTO Warns China's $1.2T Surplus Unsustainable, Urges Model Shift
1/2 AFP: "WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Friday urged China to change its growth model, arguing that its soaring trade surplus risked sparking new trade barriers. “The $1.2 trillion trade surplus is not sustainable because the rest of the world cannot... https://t.co/fvOrE6LYBH
Speak Up: Visibility Makes Your Product Real
If nobody talks about your product… it doesn’t exist yet. Build louder. Are you building in public? Yes / No.
Strategists Misread CapEx, Overhype Free Cash Flow
I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever...
Goldman Sachs Makes AI Core of Finance Operations
Goldman Sachs is embedding Anthropic’s Claude into accounting and compliance to automate high volume, rules based back office work. After six months of co building, executives were surprised that AI handled complex financial processes, not just coding tasks. The ambition is clear,...
BOE Holds Rate Decision Pending Crucial UK Inflation Data
BOE on knife edge over interest rates awaits pivotal UK inflation data https://t.co/xROceOBQ9W via @PhilAldrick @CraigStirling https://t.co/H5s8yIIXBQ