Zero‑Return Public Markets Forecast, Yet Investing Still Essential
"Will the public markets return ... 0% over the next decade? Apollo says so. Even so, we probably have to keep investing." The latest with @rodriscoll @HarryStebbings + me https://t.co/rAgT9714X8
Cold Email Investment Fuels Drone Pivot to Defense Giants
We backed @flybyrobotics via a cold inbound email. They built drone delivery for Yale campus students. Since then COVID crushed their plans and they pivoted. They’re now selling US-made drones to Palantir, US Marine Corps, and others. And now this…
2025 Predictions: Strong IPO Surge, Google Leads AI
Every year I make a list of predictions & score the previous year’s. You can find my 10 Predictions for 2026 here. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. 1. The IPO market rips. Score...
US Defense Won’t Trust Chinese Drone Maker, VCs Realize
one of the reasons VCs passed on Shield AI in 2015 was "won't DJI just do this?" We said you're crazy if you believe the US gov/military is going to rely longterm on a Chinese company for NatSec. https://lnkd.in/gcpRNMnA
Keep Growing During Due Diligence, Don't Stall Valuation
Common deal killer I see at @acquiredotcom? Stalled growth during due diligence. When you decide to sell your startup, it’s tempting to shift 100% of your focus to the deal. You stop shipping features. You pause marketing. You start mentally checking out. But buyers...
Parallel Due Diligence Compresses Timeline and Boosts Competition
How long should due diligence take? Ad hoc diligence begins Day One of a process, but the detailed, confirmatory diligence right before closing the deal should last roughly 3-4 weeks (assuming you run a tightly controlled process). If it were...
AI Agents Will Outprice Human Labor by 2026
11 Predictions for 2026 Every year I make a list of predictions & score last year’s predictions. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. Here are my predictions for 2026 : 1. Businesses pay more for AI agents...
Freemium AI Conversions Hover Around 2%—Scale Requires Tens of Millions.
The AI Freemium Math is Brutal — But It Works at Scale 1⃣ChatGPT: 800M users → 15M paid (2%) → $20B ARR 2⃣Gemini: 650M users → Est. 2-3% → Part of Google 3⃣Claude: 30M users → Heavy API/Enterprise → $5B ARR 4⃣Perplexity: 30M users...
2026 IPO Boom Falters From the Start
The 2026 IPO Boom Is Already Off to a Bad Start https://t.co/f7BR2zMb0I
Life After a Game‑Changing Exit: Founder Stories
Founders after a life changing exit on @acquiredotcom: https://t.co/SgKWPn5gwQ
Free 7-Day Access to Molly Graham’s Leadership Essays
Molly Graham 's excellent collection of leadership, operations, and startup advice is changing a little. All new essays will be freely available for seven days, then they go behind a subscription plan where you get everything, forever. i've shared many...
AI Unifies Marketing, Sales, and Support Into One Agent
"AI is converging marketing, sales & support. They are becoming 1 AI agent. Not 10 different pre-AI SaaS products. In fact, it's already happening in e-commerce." The latest with @rodriscoll @HarryStebbings + me https://t.co/Uhpain34qX
Vision Obsession Masks Avoidance of Concrete Details
Founders who obsess over vision usually do it to avoid specifics.
From Skepticism to Success: Truemed Proves Its Worth
I was wrong about Truemed. When Justin first told me about his new co, I was skeptical brands would adopt a new payment solution. ~3 years later, it’s definitely working. Thankfully we bet on him. :)
Show the Incentive, See the Outcome.
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome…” https://t.co/QJAbUuo9bc
Blueprint: Build a Hot AI Startup to IPO
-> https://t.co/NlPWFTrkQ8 is getting there - Found hot AI startup - Pick top accelerator - Poach from other AI start-ups - Build to Series A, IPO, and ... beyond https://t.co/2tS4gKNkhp
2025 Winners Revealed, 2026 Tech Stock Predictions Unveiled
2025 was a crazy year. 2026 will be even less predictable. So at 20VC we thought it was time for @jasonlk, @rodriscoll to do a very special “20VC Big Fat Quiz of the Year”. For 2025: - Best Founder of the Year -...
Learning Shows When Teams Adapt: Design Pressure, Own Outcomes
The fastest way to tell whether a team is learning is to look for moments where someone had to revise their view because reality contradicted it. If those moments are rare, the system is insulated. It may be busy, but it...
Selling Frees Founders to Focus on Design Passion
Selling a business doesn’t mean walking away. Jamm Designs (@jammdotco) sold to a buyer on @acquiredotcom who could scale the business so the founders could focus on what they loved: design. First acquisition with lots of unknowns and having the right advisor...
More Expensive LLMs Aren’t Always the Better Choice
There are times when the very latest LLM is the best, and there are times when the most expensive LLM is the best. And there are times when it isn't. We've run 2,700 VC Pitch Decks through SaaStr AI VC so I...
Influence Extends Beyond Formal Reporting Lines
Org Charts Are Funhouse Mirrors Because Span of Influence is Not Limited to Span of Control https://lnkd.in/g_yhV_mK
VCs Gain IPO Gold While Consumers Miss Gains
"All the leaders from SpaceX to Stripe to Anthropic to Databricks waiting to IPO is the gift of a lifetime to venture capital. Yes, the consumers have been protected from bad news. But they've also been blocked from all the massive appreciation."...
Deep Customer Insight Gets Punished by Organizational Incentives
One more layer that’s worth naming. Even when teams talk to customers with good intent, most companies structurally make understanding hard to sustain. The incentives quietly punish it. Deep understanding creates friction. It slows momentum and introduces ambiguity right when leadership wants certainty. So...
Shield AI’s V‑BAT Survives Jamming, Executes 35+ Missions
"On the frontlines in Ukraine, Russian jammers intersect communications and radio signals, leading drones to veer off course or even fall from the sky and crash. Many U.S. drones haven’t been able to perform. But after an eight-month iteration period...
Founder Cashes Out at Peak to Fund New Venture
ChatFAI was winning. Millions of users, strong revenue, and viral growth. Umar (@heyumarkhan) got acquired when things were going great. Cashed in the chips. He then used the exit to fuel his other startup. Full interview here: https://t.co/tNIE71aLPb https://t.co/htq2TImIUZ
VC Firm Publishes Complete Data on All Portfolio Startups
We're the most transparent in VC in history. So we're sharing full information on all the startups we've backed. Investment size, valuations, current revenues, everything. Including for startups still in stealth. https://t.co/fD3p3Tdaux
Agency, Not Tools, Drives Real Impact
Agency is the scarce resource. Tools are abundant. Information is cheap. Coordination is easy. None of that changes reality by itself. Agency does. Agency is deciding when there is no proof, acting when outcomes are unclear, and remaining accountable after the result shows...
Founders Fail When They Skip Understanding Market Needs
"Make something people want" sounds obvious, but not doing it is the most common mistake founders make. I explained why I made it in the essay where I coined the term. I didn't understand the market I was building for,...
Competitor's Domain Grab Reveals Fear and Amateurism
A startup told me a highly-funded competitor bought the .com of their name. I told them this is good news in a way. It means the competitor is (a) amateurish and (b) afraid of them, both of which suggest the...
Future AI Millionaires Earn Equity, Not Founders' Shares
The AI Wealth Machine is like nothing we have ever seen before. 🔎Nvidia has created ~27,000 millionaires. 78% of employees. Half worth $25M+. Jensen Huang: "I've created more billionaires on my management team than any CEO in the world." 💥OpenAI is catching...
AI B2B Takes Off in 2026 After 2025 Foundations
We are literally >just< getting going in AI B2B. Really, most stuff didn’t even work before Claude 4 and the beginning of 2025. That’s why Lovable, Replit, Cursor, Gamma, etc. exploded. The models alone weren’t good enough — until early...
SpaceX's $1.5T IPO: Who Will Fund It?
"The SpaceX IPO at $1.5 Trillion 1⃣Who will buy? 2⃣Could the valuation get walked back? 3⃣ Will the Big Vision justify it? 4⃣Could Google anchor the IPO for $10B+?" The latest with @rodriscoll @HarryStebbings + me https://t.co/YBJayKYQrp
From CFO to Creator: Building Mostly Media
The tables have turned... my friend and fellow creator Paul Stansik at ParkerGale Capital interviewed me on my business. How did I go from CFO to guy who creates stuff online? And is it worth it? We cover the origins...
Organize Diligence and Keep Competition to Prevent Retrades
One of the most frustrating things for a founder selling their business: A retrade. Retrading is when a buyer tries to renegotiate the terms of a transaction late in a process due to "new" information that arose during final diligence....
Unified AI Regulation Needed to Shield Small Startups
America doesn’t win by making every startup navigate 50+ regulatory regimes. Fragmented AI rules become a moat helping big tech only. A coherent federal framework is how you protect safety and keep US AI advancing. This EO is a meaningful...
Founders' Decision Speed Limits Startup Growth, AI Highlights
Every startup eventually hits the same wall. The company can only move at the speed the founder is willing to make irreversible decisions. AI exposes this because everything else can move instantly.
Remove Mediocrity Quickly to Preserve High‑Performing Teams
A truly high performing team gets brought down by even one mediocre player The better the team, the faster you have to root the mediocre out
VCs Rarely Publish “State Of” Reports Outside AI
Did any VC or LP write a "State Of" report on anything other than AI?
LLM Startup Boom Mirrors 2009 Mobile, 2003 Web
It’s the golden age for startups that turn latent LLM capability and intelligence into actual adoption Will be like working on mobile apps in 2009 or the web in 2003
Beware: Classic Valuation Trick Still Misused
i've seen this too and it's the oldest trick in the valuation maxxer bad practice book
Guard Your Focus: Turn It Into a Competitive Asset
Focus used to be a habit. Now it’s an asset that must be defended. AI constantly invites expansion. Founders who don’t guard focus end up running a portfolio instead of a company.
TikTok US Valued at $14B Amid Political Sale Push
The deal values TikTok U.S. at around $14 billion, a source confirmed to Axios. (ChatGPT says it’s really worth between $50 and $100B) Oracle, Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX will collectively own 45% of the U.S. entity, which will...
AI-Native B2B Firms Surge, Seat‑based SaaS Lag
The Great B2B Bifurcation of 2025 Palantir +142%. HubSpot -51%. Despite the fact both businesses end the year pretty strong. Some patterns from the top 25 B2B / SaaS public companies: What's working: 🔼AI-native infrastructure (Palantir, Cloudflare, MongoDB) 🔼Mission-critical + high switching costs (CrowdStrike, Palo...
2025 Portfolio Milestones Unveiled in Video Recap
Just sent a video-filled 2025 recap to our LPs. Here's a peek at a few slides highlighting portfolio cos and their milestones. https://t.co/VDqBus6eDe
Top CROs Have Already Built 2026 Teams
The best CROs have mostly recruited the teams they need for 2026 already Half the job is recruiting
Lux Funds Frontier; Others Waste on Quantum Hype
1000%. From my partner @Farshchi Lux funds the frontier but some people are funding really stupid shit including Quantum and Photonic compute (photonic interconnect and data relay makes good sense, not compute) nor data centers in space for terrestrial use
Thiel’s Kind Dismissal Leads to SpaceX’s Biggest Bet
"Peter Thiel fired Elon Musk. Be -- he was kind about it. And he left Elon with all his economics (12% of PayPal). Be kind. He did what he had to do, but he was kind. And then Elon...
Shopify Subscription App Generates Predictable $30K Monthly Profit
Recurring revenue is king. Live on @acquiredotcom: Shopify subscription app helping merchants turn one-time buyers into predictable monthly revenue. > $29K ARR > $32K TTM revenue > $30K TTM profit > 190 paying merchants Full listing: https://t.co/zCumfIm8mD https://t.co/wYOQ3FwbAz
Product Strength Beats Capital as True Business Bludgeon
Capital is not a bludgeon The best product is the bludgeon
Truth Social Merges with Billion‑dollar Fusion Startup TAE Technologies
Meanwhile in M&A, TRUTH SOCIAL (last 12 months $400M losses) is merging with TAE Technologies - a fusion power company - that has raised over $1B betting on a beam-driven field‑reversed configuration (FRC), where high-energy neutral particle beams sustain...