RUB Strengthens as Oil Stabilizes, Gold Surges
Macro: MOEX flat as oil steadies and gold spikes; RUB strengthens (USD/RUB 76.65). Key drivers: commodity moves, stable RVI (24.9). Risks: commodity volatility, sanctions. Trade: buy selective energy exporters on RUB resilience. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
AI Wins by Experience, Not Just Vertical Integration
The vertical integration of intelligence is non-negotiable. Control your platforms, models, chips, and data centers or watch providers do to you what you're trying to do to them. Microsoft AI is all-in on this. But they're caught in a bind: vertical...
Russia's Inflation Spike Tied to Excess Money Supply
Russia’s inflation comes in at 6.0%/yr in January. That's ABOVE RU's 4%/yr target. RU's M2 money supply is growing at 10.6%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
More Analysis, Fewer Dashboards: Solve the Real Problem
I've worked as a Sr. Director of BI and Analytics and I had to learn something the hard way. Despite what business stakeholders say, another dashboard is rarely the right answer to their needs. Why? Because what's behind the ask is a misconception...
CIOs Must Reset IT Model for Speed and Resilience
RT For CIOs in 2026, it's not "business as usual with more AI." It's a reset. You?re expected to reengineer IT?s operating model for velocity, resilience, and adaptability while still proving ROI under a microscope. #CIO #DigitalTransformation @Star_CIO https://t.co/KnnrY3Zh58
AI Success Requires Data, Change Management, Not Just Magic
Executives expecting magic wand AI outcomes without funding data quality, change management, and integration work are setting teams up to fail. You can't skip the plumbing and still expect water. #CIO #AI https://t.co/VtuS5rQ0ZG
Poor Nations Double Youth Disengagement Compared to Rich Countries
How rich-country advantages compound. More than twice the share of young people in poor countries are not in employment, education or training. This and more insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/pokvStfn3w
US Ramps up Pressure, Threatens Chinese Oil Imports
Maximum Pressure 2: More max, more pressure, another round of threatening Chinese sanctioned oil imports. https://t.co/UNNBJOFLTx
Venezuela Faces 651% Inflation, Cost of Living Crisis
The FT reports that the cost of living is Venezuelan's top concern. NO SURPISE. Today, I measure Venezuela’s inflation at a 651.5%/yr. Venezuela is the WORLD’S TOP INFLATOR. https://t.co/P4FBBSNdqk
Switching LLMs Wastes Time; Stick to One
I don't really understand devs who jump back and forth between LLM providers. Claude, Codex, Claude, Gemini, back to Codex, then Claude. What marginal improvement can be worth the massive context shift every single time? Pick one and build. You won't have...
USD Poised to Rise if Congress Regains Tariff Control
Wouldn’t that be something: $NVDA earnings 25th with SCOTUS decision on tariffs anytime after 20th… #IEEPA USD bullish in the short term if they hand back tariff control to Congress 🎰 $VIX
Unrealized Gains Tax Threatens New Investments Globally
Unrealized gains tax is a mega-drag on new investments. The same reason why the California Asset Seizure Tax by SEIU-UHW is going to destroy startups is happening in the Netherlands. https://t.co/jMgP3ieI2G
Avoid These 7 Fatal Ops Mistakes to Save Your Business
7 operational mistakes that almost killed my business (and will kill yours if you don’t catch them early) 1. Working with the cheapest partners 2. Not checking supplier invoices at scale 3. No naming conventions on ads or creatives 4. Not understanding China...
Human Expertise Still Outperforms AI in Ad Creation
There is still a net benefit to having someone with an intricate knowledge of the creative and ad buying processes that AI can’t automate.
Burn Rate Equals Risk; VC Burn Rates at Historic Highs
Burn rate = risk. So of course, this is true. These are the highest burn rates in history of VC. Simple fact. https://t.co/IrsIBd0qDC
Decision Provenance and Observability Essential Before Production
If you can't trace what data, tools, and rules led to an agent's decision, you're not ready for production. Decision provenance and observability are critical release criteria. #Observability #AI #DevOps https://t.co/1tg10UmJNv
Cognitive Warfare Already Undermining Western Alliances and Institutions
Cognitive warfare isn’t coming—it’s here. Some Western political leaders are being used to weaken alliances, disrupt decision-making, and fragment institutions. Swipe to see the key predictions, and visit davidmurrin.co.uk for the full analysis. #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #Russia #China #Strategy
Gift High‑basis Assets Now, Transfer Low‑basis at Death
I can think of half a dozen reasons why it is NOT a mistake to gift a house to a child before passing. Why? Because these decisions are fact and portfolio dependent, and always/never advice is rarely reliable when it...
AI Adoption Will Drive Multi‑Billion Dollar Subscription and Corporate Spend
AI market/TAM in midterm 1. Most employees will have a free LLM on their desktop; we are moving top team memebrs to two daisy chained Mac studios ($25k total) — easy investment 2. All major models will free for...
Iran's Inflation Hits 81.5%, World's Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 81.5%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/HcSee4i4O2
Curated Tech Stack Powers Modern Venture Firms
Optimal venture firm tech stack: -Fund Admin: @hanoverpark -Bank/Cards: @FlexSuperApp -CRM: @NotionHQ -Sales tax for port co’s: @numeral -Ski passes: @VailResorts -Travel: @NetJets / @FourSeasons -Everything else: @claudeai
REITs Hit Decade‑Low Valuations: Rare Investor Opportunity
REITs are currently trading at their lowest valuations in decades. The vast majority of investors are not positioned to take advantage of this historic opportunity. 🧵Here's a 'Mini Masterclass' on how to take advantage:
US Job Market Cooler than Washington’s Hype
Don't let first appearances fool you. The US job market is NOT as hot as the Spinmeisters in Washington DC crack it up to be. https://t.co/lKCBOl0rdi
Buy Manappuram on Pullbacks Amid RBI
Macro: PE flows target Indian NBFCs. RBI cleared Bain's up to 41.7% in Manappuram; ₹43.85bn injected. Risk: regulatory scrutiny. Trading insight: buy Manappuram on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
AI Threatens White‑Collar Jobs—Upskill Now
Microsoft’s AI chief says AI will automate most white-collar work in 18 months. He claims AI will handle law, accounting, marketing, and coding at human level. Yet reports show only small productivity gains, and one study found developers took 20% longer with...
Value Tilt Gains as Momentum Spread Widens 16%
Classic monotonic pattern. When you see this pattern you know with a higher degree of certainty that it is one of THE drivers of how investors are positioning their portfolios. We’ve been recommending a value tilt since last fall, as...
Key Signals Founders Need Before Raising Next Round
$40M raised. Series A ready. Episode 232 dives into the real signals founders should look for before raising more capital 👇 https://t.co/0CcjGEIVb9 #SaaS #AI https://t.co/S1vxKwuxiB
ISL Replaces ETL: Intelligence Beats Raw Data Ingestion
Ingest Structure Learn (ISL) is the new ETL. It used to be the case that a company would try to license this kind of data as an “edge”. I’ve seen many companies in SV try to make this claim. That...
EU Boosts Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite
During 2025, Chinese exports to the EU jumped by 6.3%. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = EU PIVOTS TOWARDS CHINA. https://t.co/tkz6F9xAsN
Stocks Are only Cheap During Economic or Business Crises
There are really only two times when stocks become "cheap": collectively, - usually when the health of the economy is in question, - and, more narrowly, when the viability of a business or its industry is in question. You...
Bank CEOs Earn $41M, Dwarfed by Tech Wealth
"Six Wall Street bank chiefs bring in combined pay of $250mn in 2025" On the one hand this is shocking. On the other hand $41m each pa is a marker of quite how far banks have been eclipsed by private...
Energy Leads US Sector Gains; Financials Fall
🇺🇸 US Sector Performance in 2026 📈 $XLE Energy up 22% $XLB Basic Materials up 18% $XLP Consumer Defensive up 16% $XLI industrials up 12.8% $XLU Utilities up 9% $XLRE Real Estate up 8% $XLV Healthcare up 2% $XLY Consumer Retail -2% $XLK Technology -2.5% $XLF Financials -5%
CIOs Must Rethink IT for Real AI Impact
World-class IT in the AI era looks very different. I share provocative lessons for CIOs who feel under fire to transform IT and show real impact. #CIO #ITLeadership #AI https://t.co/VjbvwFzWSu
Bootstrapping Beats VC Hype for Lasting Wealth
Worst ways to build wealth - thinking a $100M valuation means you have $100M - raising money. period - adding features for 5 years instead of admitting your product sucks - telling yourself "we just need more time" at year 7 - calling yourself a...
Fintech Beats AI in European VC Valuations
While AI dominates headlines with mega-rounds, fintech is quietly leading European VC valuations. Median pre-money for fintech reached €12.4m — 29% higher than AI, and well ahead of SaaS and life sciences. In a hype-driven cycle, investors are rewarding revenue, regulation-ready models...
Solo Founder’s Transparent Journey to $1M by Year-End
I’m turning my monthly investor updates into a blog - full transparency of running a business as a solo founder trying to hit $1M by EOY. I’ll share every experiment, every win, loss, MRR, burn, etc. I don’t know everything...
Venezuela Inflation Hits 651.5% Under U.S. Management
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Under Uncle Sam's management, Venezuela's economy continues to CRUMBLE. Today, I measure Venezuela’s inflation at 651.5%/yr. I REMAIN THE ONLY SOURCE OF ACCURATE INFLATION MEASUREMENTS FOR VENEZUELA. https://t.co/MpUeEa9s1S
Privacy Is a Year‑round Leadership Responsibility, Not a Weekly Event
RT Data Privacy Week is over. Lawsuits, breaches, and AI experiments don't pause the other 51 weeks of the year. Privacy is now a leadership accountability issue, not a back office task. #CIO #CMO #CISO #DataPrivacy @Star_CIO https://t.co/Naq82FuMWZ
Great Leaders Give Needed Support, Not Deserved Criticism
There’s a powerful leadership lesson in watching Trae Turner. When you’re in a tough season, people can either give you what you deserve — criticism, frustration, distance — or they can give you what you need — encouragement, belief, support. The best...
Turn Excel Into a Text Mining Powerhouse
Each week I send out a free analytics tutorial to 39,009 professionals. This week is Part 3 in a series on mining free-form text data using Python in Excel. Think about this for a second. Production quality, reproducible text mining inside an Excel...
Emerging Strategies: Agentic Pricing, Nuclear Cloud, Analog Marketing
Strategic Brief: The Agentic Pricing Shift, Nuclear Cloud Grids, and the Analog Marketing Rebellion https://t.co/P5qLllgBGU
2025 State of SaaS Marketing: Insider Data Unveiled
Tired of being left in the dark on how other SaaS companies are doing? Then welcome to the 2025 State of SaaS Marketing mega thread. Buckle up. I surveyed hundreds of SaaS founders & marketers last year, to collect the data that's usually...
Nifty May Plunge to 19k Amid Global Macro Risks
The Nifty Can Crash to 19000 due to Global Macros - Prepare Now - Hindi ... https://t.co/gKdPPrx6C6 via @YouTube The video discussed the current market setup, IT sector view, which sectors are the weakest. Why we got here and where...
Yen Poised for New 2025 Lows Amid
The Yen will keep falling in trade weighted terms in 2025 and make new lows. Two reasons: (i) Japan remains in denial on the scale of its debt and what's needed to fix this; (ii) the Yen will be falling...
AI Threat Looms Over $3.5T Credit Market
Credit markets could be the next AI casualty. A UBS analyst flags the $3.5T leveraged loan and private credit space as vulnerable, with AI disruption moving faster than expected. Up to $120B in fresh defaults this year would turn the AI boom...
Global Data Week: FOMC Minutes to RBA Jobs
Buckle up! Its going to be a VERY Busy Data Week ahead👇 🇺🇸 US -FOMC Minutes -Q4 GDP -Empire State & Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -IP -ZEW -PMIs 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -Retail Sales -CPI -PMIs 🇯🇵 JP CPI & GDP 🇨🇦 CA -CPI -Retail Sales -Trade 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PSI -PPI 🇦🇺 AU -RBA MINUTES -JOBS -PMIS
Modi Leveraged Trump Tariff Threat to Advance Free Trade
My take on PM Modi's clever move to reduce India's punishing tariffs and non-tariff barriers: "Modi used the tariff threat from Trump as cover to push for free trade between India and other countries." MODI = SMARTER THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/aTUbO8em04
AI Widens Gap: Leaders Must Keep Learning
AI is accelerating the divide between leaders who learn continuously and those who fall behind. Standing still is not a https://t.co/fRpFGuoNlH the full episode: https://t.co/niO7fXOQML https://t.co/vMRrQNi6cA
Markets Price 2.5 Fed Cuts as Curve Flattens
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
Warsh Fed Expected to Slash Rates 100bps, Dollar Falls
My forecast is for the Warsh Fed to cut policy rates by 100 bps in the 4 meetings after he takes over (June, July, September, October) ahead of midterms. Markets are moving in this direction, but still price only 63...