Visa's TSR Mirrors Earnings Growth, P/E Stays Flat
Visa total return the last decade or so basically all earnings growth; P/E unchanged while change in EPS estimates roughly equal TSR https://t.co/wYh3Mkz7Aq
Surround Yourself with Allies Who Push, Not Praise
Build relationships that make risk-taking more likely. Choose people who kick you in the pants over those who affirm your excuses. Trust allies who believe in your potential, fuel your courage, and challenge you to get off your butt.
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
Trump Tariffs Add $1,300 Hidden Tax per Household
According to a new report by the Tax Foundation, Trump’s latest tariffs amount to a $1,300 hidden tax per household. US TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/w3pnoqPIdP
BOE's Pill: Rates Slightly Too Low, Should Stay
BOE’s Pill says interest rates are ‘a little too low’ and should be held https://t.co/wMBsLKECUz via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/axOKBgzYCV
China's Massive Surplus Threatens IMF Balance
China's reported current account surplus for q4 was $242b (close to $1 trillion annualized), and the 2025 surplus was $735b -- well over 3.5% of China's GDP. This has big implications for the IMF, for Secretary Bessent and and the world...
Germany Mulls Debt Brake Exemption for Raw Materials Fund
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
Ramp and Rippling Are Less Overlapping Than Assumed
Ramp and Rippling don't have as much overlap as people think. So says @rabois 👀 @eglyman @parkerconrad https://t.co/6Xh1bcpnjw
Rabois Predicts Trump May Block China's Nvidia Chip Access
Here's @rabois saying he thinks the Trump administration may ultimately reverse course on letting China get access to Nvidia's best chips https://t.co/XImO09oRyf
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
Rapid Growth Crushed Margins and Infrastructure
$2M to $9M ARR in one year. Sounds amazing but... Support went from 200 to 20K tickets/month Servers crashed for a full day Gross margin went from 90% to 20% They threw money at AWS because there was no other option. https://t.co/eT4oChv5G3
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Key Differences Between OFAC's New GL
This is actually the best way to describe the difference between GL 49 and GL 50 (the two Venezuela-related General Licenses issued by OFAC today)
US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
Lenders Cut Ties on Deeply Underwater Properties
Valuations are dropping fast. If a deal isn’t performing, lenders try to save it to avoid losses. But when a property is too far underwater, there’s simply no reason to keep the original owner involved. #RealEstate #Finance #cashflowisking
Regulation Entrenches Incumbents, Stifling Innovation and Growth
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...
Boards Must Prioritize Cyber‑Risk Oversight, Says Expert
My comments on the role of corporate boards in overseeing the management of cyber-risk. In today's New York Post. Link on my website... Type JS.TC into any web browser.
Defensive Sectors Exhausted, Market Poised for Broad Correction
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
CPI Slowdown Fuels Falling Yields, Bullish Duration, Utilities, Gold
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Incentive Pay Boosts Advisor Revenue and Client Growth
This #WeekendReading kicks off with the news that @CharlesSchwab's latest RIA compensation report finds that while base salaries remain the largest component of advisor compensation, firms that offer incentive pay have seen more revenue and client growth in recent years than...
Danny Moses Show Returns: Economy, AI, Markets Forecast
The Danny Moses Show returns tonight @scrippsnews at 7PM sponsored by @Kalshi. Great to have @pboockvar join me & we talk about the global & U.S. economy, A.I. stocks/bonds, commodities, the consumer, #FED, Private Credit & make some @Kalshi predictions... https://t.co/vQGLUQMHUc...
Top 50+ AI Governance Predictions Leaders Must Prioritize
Digital transformation is hitting a new phase. These 50+ expert predictions on agentic AI, governance, and security outline what leaders must prioritize now. #DigitalTransformation #AI #CISO https://t.co/zhlbEwiusI
Spot the #1 Sign Management Lacks Business Command
What’s the #1 tell that a management team doesn’t actually have command of their business? I spoke with Paul Stansik , an operating partner at ParkerGale Capital , about the relationship between boards and their portfolio companies. Paul works on...
Bootstrapped Growth Beats VC Hype for True Freedom
I want to be crystal clear: the advice I give on LinkedIn is NOT for founders who think they're creating unicorns, decacorns, or the next Anthropic. If you believe you're building a unicorn or decacorn and you're sitting here reading...
Pivot: Replace Invalidated Strategy Parts, Keep Validated Ones
A “pivot,” as opposed to “throwing shit at the wall,” means that you identified what parts of the strategy have been reinforced with new evidence (the foot that remains planted) and which have been invalidated, and replaced by what precisely...
Markets Trade Transition as Central Banks Hold Steady
Pauses aren’t pivots. Central banks are holding steady, but easing remains conditional. Inflation is cooler, labor is softer, yet not weak enough to confirm a recession. Markets are trading the transition, not the destination.
Explore 100+ Years of Industry Economic Geography Data
If you are interested in over 100 years of economic history and data on these geographic trends for this industry, I have some here for you: https://t.co/kayw0VoAML
China Backs Struggling Cuba Amid Looming US Showdown
As Cuba teeters on the brink of economic disaster, China promises continued support. It looks like a SHOWDOWN between the US & China might be in the cards. https://t.co/rb7Qf0CdN2
Prometheus Macro Impresses; Aahan Delivers Real Quant Success
This is extremely impressive. Congrats to @prometheusmacro and the clients who are using its models If you are looking for Quant Macro That Actually Works, Aahan is your guy
High ROE Fuels Rapid Book Growth and Higher Valuations
"We have shown over the past couple of years that Return-on-Equity readings for companies are very high, and very supportive of equity prices as the high ROE promotes rapid growth of corporate book value, and consequently higher market valuations." -...
AI’s Growth Hinges on How Hard New Ideas Become to Discover
How much economic growth will get from AI? This is massively speculative. However, in a new piece today @ngoldschlag and myself make the case we can learn something about this from an academic economics debate about whether "ideas are getting...
Expensify's $3M Audit Fee Highlights Costly Compliance
Expensify paid $3M in audit fees in 2024. Insane. They had 115 employees and $140M of revenue...They are not complicated. The auditors could have literally redone the books for that much. Hope AI drives audit costs down (but not holding my breath...
Segmented Marketing Unlocks Hidden Revenue Growth
Customer segmentation drives growth. Many businesses ignore it and waste budget on broad marketing. Group customers by behavior, survey feedback, and purchase history. When campaigns match each segment and product decisions follow real data, sales rise. If all customers are treated the same, how...
Founders Must Hire Themselves to Master Interview Insight
A friend asked me recently if he should use a hiring agency to scale his team faster. He's juggling inventory issues, trying to build out his creative systems, and hiring at the same time. Classic founder chaos. I told him “No, do...
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
Assume BRICS' USD‑bypass Plans Are Real; Doubt USD Stability
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
Mid‑Size SaaS Growth Re‑Accelerates, Rule‑40 Slips, NDR Returns
The latest Private Company SaaS Benchmarks are here. How did 2025 finish? TL;DR: 1) Growth is (somewhat) re-accelerating between $5M–$50M ARR 2) Rule of 40 is sad between $5M–$25M ARR 3) NDR is making a quiet comeback For the full...
Last Year's Job Growth Fell Below a Single Biden Month
“.. we had less job growth all of last year than we had in an average month during the Biden administration.”
Robot Money's Scale: Exciting Potential, Unsettling Unknowns
I genuinely don't think we understand the true implications of robot money at scale. Exciting. But also scary.
AI Literacy Means Understanding Organizational Impact, Not Just Tools
"AI literacy isn't just about using tools - it's about understanding how AI impacts decision-making, revenue, and business processes across the entire organization." #AI #OrganizationalLearning #CIO #CHRO https://t.co/unhzqol8gL https://t.co/KzFwg120A5
Decode the LP‑GP Language Gap: Survival vs Longevity
LPs & GPs are often having the same conversation, but not speaking the same language. In my convo w/ @chudson & @miafarnham, we talked about the LP/GP “language gap.” As Charles put it: “Once you learn to decode it, it’s actually quite...
IMMX Gains Momentum as CAR‑T Landscape Heats Up
$IMMX momentum continues >Mizuho analyst initiates $14 PT >Lily acquisition of Orna Therapeutics $2.4 billion >AbbVie acquired Capstan Therapeutics $2.1 billion CAR-T heating up >Next milestone: imminent enrollment completion >Could NXC-201 be an eventual front-line therapy for AL Amyloidosis? >BLA submission projected Q3’26 https://t.co/cPpiiFHQal
Americans Foot ~90% of Trump Tariff Costs
The New York Fed announced that US businesses and consumers paid NEARLY 90% of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs last year. TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/xEEfGxreUm
Scaling Brands Must Eliminate Tax Inconsistencies or Face Audits
At scale, tax mistakes stop being mistakes. They become red flags. Here's what most brands don't realize: States aren't looking for perfection. They're looking for inconsistency. 🚩 When your collected tax doesn't match your filings 🚩 When registrations lag behind where you're actually...
Codex Cuts Code Review Time to Minutes
Head of OpenAI 's API: "Codex is really good at reviewing code. Codex reviews all of our PRs. It makes code reviews go from a 10-15 minute task to sometimes a 2-3 minute task, because you have a bunch of...