Market Prices Accelerating Fed Rate Cuts Through 2026
Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
OneWeb Boost
.@EutelsatGroup: OneWeb rev up 59.7% in 6M to Dec. 31; 600 aircraft have our connectivity hardware; hosted payloads, ground segment seen as fresh revenue sources; cancelling @Thales_Alenia_S GEO sat saves EUR 100M in capex, costs 60M in impairment charges.https://t.co/f8cngyWfes https://t.co/iWpscm5aIi
AI‑driven Spending Masked Recession; Recovery Now Emerging
With this week's jobs revisions, my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the...
9 Unvarnished Cybersecurity Truths CIOs Must Confront
Beyond the Hype: 9 Cybersecurity Realities CIOs Must Face at RSAC 2026 #CIO #Cybersecurity #RSAC #RSAC2026 #AI https://t.co/l36K8t0RcX
Critique without Solutions: The Missing Piece
“My friends tell me that I have a tendency to point out problems without offering solutions, but they never tell me what I should do about it.” Daniel Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness https://t.co/1nPRmS83u4
CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...
Inflation Stays Low as Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...
AI‑First SaaS Lacks Playbook, Creating New Opportunities
No playbook yet for building an AI-first SaaS company — and that’s the opportunity. Episode 232 of The SaaS CFO Podcast with Ben Winter 👇 https://t.co/0CcjGEIVb9 #SaaS #AI https://t.co/62OFBrvp7A
Founders Should Solve Problems They’ve Lived Through
"Build something people want." Focus on solving real problems for your customers. It's best when founders have actually lived the problem.
Warp-Speed Growth Demands Zero Friction to Value and Scale
Going from 0-100M in 5 years used to be called hypergrowth. In the AI era, that’s SLOW. The new standard is going from 0-100M in 12 months or less. I call this WARP speed. Companies that have scaled at WARP...
Coach Nateoats Uses Stoic Wisdom to Build Team Resilience
Shoutout to Coach nateoats for recommending ‘The Obstacle Is The Way’ to his players. Means a lot to see these ideas being used where resilience, discipline, and teamwork matter most. Hope it helps them face adversity the right way.
Five Tech Giants' 2026 Capex Beats Global Oil‑Gas Average
Something scary for Friday the 13th. The planned 2026 CAPEX budgets for just 5 big tech firms in 2026 is larger than the average GLOBAL oil & gas capex between 2022-2025. 🤯🤯🤯🤯 https://t.co/WfwKC00YCY
Add 30% Detail to Make Financial Models Credible
Your Model is 70% There. Here's What's Missing. Most VPs of Finance I work with have a solid financial model. P&L looks good. Balance sheet ties out. Cash flow makes sense. But when the board starts asking harder questions, the model falls short. "What...
S&P Erases Almost All 2026 Gains Amid AI Hype
Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
Bloomberg's Russia Dollar Rumor Likely Misleading, Says Hanke
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
Talent Industry Prioritizes Optics Over Reasonable Judgment
Should a guy lose his company because he sent flirty emails 20 years ago? Clearly no. But in the talent business, optics can matter more than reason. ⬇️⬇️ https://t.co/BOp7Xmhkrh
Stop AI FOMO: Prioritize Vision, Roadmaps, Measurable Goals
Spinning up just one more AI pilot without clear business problems and success measures only adds to AI debt. The hard and necessary shift is from FOMO projects to vision statements and roadmaps. #AI #CIO https://t.co/VtuS5rQ0ZG
AI Cuts Months of Design Work to Hours
1.5 years ago, I spent an entire month designing Theanna from idea to... design. (just design) Last night, I used Claude Code to design and implement a front end for a brand new feature, generate Linear tickets, and assigned to a...
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
Incentives Keep Frontier AI Labs Private, Excluding Public Investors
it's deeply unfortunate that incentives have aligned such that all these frontier AI labs and other tech companies are way better off staying private and the general public cannot invest in them despite desperately wishing they could.
Align Your Messaging Cascade to Unlock Pipeline Growth
SaaS CMO: “How do we get more pipeline?” Me: “First, fix your messaging cascade.” Here’s where most teams go wrong: 1. Scattered messaging. Every channel says something different. 2. No clear core message. ICP’s pain point and your unique solution...
Validate Early, Build Moat Before Hype-Driven Launch
From now on, hype-centric splashy launches will likely be strongly uncorrelated with success. If by the time you launch you don’t have escape velocity, you will likely get Sybil attacked¹. Agents will spin up 10 competing products with your same interface. Start...
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
AI Hype Isn’t Boosting Profit Margins Across the Economy
If AI were living up to its hype, it would be benefiting the ENTIRE ECONOMY. IT ISN'T. Profit margins outside the tech sector would be growing. THEY'RE NOT. https://t.co/GXT1r783t0
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
Political Gridlock Stalls $22B US EV Investment
"Last year companies canceled $22 billion in planned investments in electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries or critical minerals in the United States...." Political sustainability limits industrial policy efficacy. https://t.co/RROrBFwACq
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
AI Spending Lifts some Assets, Hurts Major Stock Valuations
The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
Narrow Positioning and Separate Budgets Beat Industry Giants
My top 5 takeaways from my chat with Gille Berteaux, Livestorm's CEO (nearly $20M ARR, 3,500 customers): 1. Expanding too broadly can kill product-market fit: After COVID, they added meetings and sales demos. Suddenly they looked like a smaller version of...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
World‑class Skill Invisible without Buyer‑centric Packaging
You can be world-class and still invisible. Just ask Joshua Bell, one of the world’s top violinists... In 2007, Joshua Bell played his $3.5M Stradivarius violin for 45 minutes in a Washington, D.C. subway station. Only 7 people stopped to listen. The same...
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
TOST Q4 Margins Surge, Profit Spikes over 200%
$TOST Q4: Operating income +140% YoY, net income +216% YoY. Margins expanding across the board. Revenue came in at $1.63B, up 22% YoY. Growth moderated vs +25% last quarter, but profitability stepped up meaningfully. Gross profit grew 27% YoY with gross margin...
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
NATO Remains Vital Amid Transatlantic Trust Crisis
for all the criticism and hand wringing, nato continues to serve a useful role for all members and nobody is trying to leave it or replace it. there’s a crisis of trust in the transatlantic relationship. but not an existential...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
Most Private Credit PIK Is Bad Yet Labeled Performing
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...