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Polymarket, Kalshi Contract Limits Demonstrated in Latest U.S. Government Shutdown Fight

The U.S. government is set to enter a partial shutdown at midnight Saturday after the Senate approved a funding package that still requires House approval. Prediction‑market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have launched contracts betting on the shutdown, each defining the event differently, most notably tying resolution to an Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announcement. Odds on both sites have surged to around 90‑plus percent, reflecting market consensus despite the House’s absence. The episode underscores how contract wording can shape market pricing in politically volatile situations.