SPY Holds Feb Uptrend, March May Test All‑Time High
$SPY has defended this uptrend line since the start of February. Seems to have worked like magic as support for the last few weeks, but hasn't been strong enough to push the index to retest all time high. Maybe in March?
S&P Stagnates Four Months as QQQ Peaks, FANG Falters
The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since October 29. Four months of chop. Small rallies get sold. Small dips get bought. Net = zero. Meanwhile, underneath: → $QQQ peaked 4 months ago, resistance stacking up → NYSE FANG Index down 17% from...
Terraform Lawsuit Exposes Hidden ETF Conflicts of Interest
Below is the AI-assisted summary of today's Spaces discussion on Terraform's lawsuit against Jane Street and the wider questions it invites about the murky behind-the-scenes mechanics of how ETFs function. It also touches on the wider conflicts of interest that...
QQQ Stalled Under Converging AVWAP Resistance
• $QQQ is down 4.78% from its October high. • It peaked 4 months ago and hasn't made a new high since. • The 21-day, 50-day, all-time AVWAP, and 11/24 low AVWAP have all converged as resistance. Four indicators. One ceiling. Zero breakout....
Russell 2000 Shifts From Tech to Industrial/Defense
Russell 2000 $IWM top 25 holdings. Shows a meaningful shift from early Q4 last year. Top holdings have rotated from speculative tech optionality toward industrial/defense/capex cyclicals over the past few months. https://t.co/c24tFJQjc5
Market Makers Add Costs, Not Major BTC Price Moves
In short: no. I was a wall st market maker 15 years ago, explicitly exploiting inefficiencies in products like ETFs. Market makers absolutely do “game the system” in all sorts of ways, but for liquid products like BTC...
ETF Cycle: 2‑3 Day Sell‑off Followed by Buy‑back
we have been seeing the same basic pattern in index ETFs for four months $QQQ $SPY. --after 2-3 days of selling large rug pulls in the other direction --after 2-3 days of buying large rug pulls in the other direction. --it's not happening...
Know the Difference: Choose the Right Fund
If you’re investing and don’t know the difference between: • Index Funds • Mutual Funds • ETFs You might be choosing the wrong one without realizing it. New vid tomorrow is going to breakdown the pros and cons of each so you can pick the...
Semis May Face Bull Trap Above $420
$SMH Daily. Dare I say, the semis are not 4/20 friendly? Possible bull trap above $420 with a steep-on-all-timeframes chart. https://t.co/mTfXGNvwv7
EOSE Drops 40%; Monitor 2x Long ETF EOSU
EOSE -40% on the day. Keep an eye on the 2x long ETF EOSU, especially if we trend towards -50%…
ETFs Reveal TradFi Faults, Spark Bitcoin Financialization Debate
DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD of #ETFs + #WallSt manipulation of myriad fault-tolerances built into #tradfi--this👇is an example of what I've long discussed. It's also why @TraceMayer & I had big debates about whether his 6th network effect for #Bitcoin--financialization--was a good thing.
Doomer Hype Fuels Clicks, Not Market Moves
Agree, Citrini got a massive debate going and increased subs, but. $IGV, $QQQ up big in past two days. And ETF flows are pouring into US equity ETFs (as usual). It only reinforces my view that doomerism is what sells...
Record $50B ETF Put Wave Signals AI Fear
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
Inside How Liquidity Providers Power ETFs and Markets
Join me at 2pm GMT today on Spaces to discuss what’s really going on behind the scenes when liquidity providers like Jane Street support key ETFs and markets. https://t.co/a9uhteuOzP
Big‑Cap S&P Leaders 50% More Volatile Than Index
The top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 50% more volatile than the S&P 500 itself right now. Important for risk... but more important for alpha right now. https://t.co/yqBR2QU8nK
QQQ Holds Above 100‑Day MA, Eyes NVDA Earnings
$QQQ - Closed above the 100 day MA after a big up day. This marginal close above the 100 DMA with a big gap is fishy but it remains to be seen what happens tomorrow after NVDA earnings. If it...
Gap-Fill Speed Reveals Underlying Market Trend Strength
$SPY would have to decline to 688.35 and $QQQ to 608.99 to fill this morning’s gaps. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is. https://t.co/jdkTxguib0
Chip Surge vs Software Lag Sparks Profit‑Seeking Unwind
One of the biggest divergences in the market overall & tech trade specifically...has been the outperformance of semiconductors & underperformance of software...being long chips & short software has produced a massive return since June 2025. What is the potential catalyst for...
Beaten‑down Stocks and Crypto Rally as IWM Stalls
Interesting day so far. $IWM gives up its pre-market gains. We are seeing some of the most beaten-up names rally a bit: quantum, $COIN, $HOOD, $BTC.X
Buy the Dip, Sell the Rally: Disciplined Growth Rules
I’m 62 years old and previously worked as a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley. After decades in the market, here are my simple rules for beginners: 📉 If it drops 5% → Hold 📉 If it drops 15% → Add 10% 📉 If it...
Broad Market Wins: Can't Beat VOO Long-Term
This AI is gonna kill software trade echoes the "Death of the Mall" trade from 10yrs ago which was to go long $AMZN and short $XRT (brick and mortar). ProShares made $CLIX, $EMTY and $ONLN to do trade for you....
International ETFs Hit June 2023 Highs
International vs US stocks... fresh highs back to June 2023 on $VEU vs $SPY @stockcharts https://t.co/aAmaYUIj34
Financials Post Worst Two‑day Underperformance Since March 2025
From @soberlook: The underperformance of the financials sector relative to the S&P 500 over the past two days was the worst since March 2025. $XLF https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/J5cJSM8UE3
Tech XLK Stagnant for 106 Days, Unchanged Since 2025
technology $XLK stocks are trading where they were on September 22nd, 2025 and are flat on 106 days... https://t.co/Bvlgo1pYA5
Seek Stocks That Outperform Both Market and Relative Index
i think that having a security/stock/ETF hit new highs while at the same time, hitting new relative highs against the relatively strong market (i.e., Canada $TSX vs. U.S. $SPX) is what any investor should want - at least what a...
Tech ETFs Battle: Green Shows Winners, Red Losers
here's a bunch of technology ETFs shown as an @Optuma ratio pairs grid... you can see the performance of each against the others... [hint: green/positive numbers show strength = good vs. red/negative numbers = weak] $PTF $SMH $PSCT $ARKQ https://t.co/GRkWjAK3x6
Nasdaq QQQ Endures Second Weakest Week of Year
we're in the midst of the second weakest week of the year for Nasdaq $QQQ stocks and '26 has been no exception... #seasonality https://t.co/xa65cuEhCz
Industrial ETF Climbs 14% Q1, Near Record High
Long Industrials $XLI up another +1.2% (back towards all-time highs) yesterday and already +14.1% in Q1-to-date
Vanguard's New Crypto ETF Triggers Massive Market Drop
Since Vanguard allowed spot crypto ETF trading on its brokerage platform Dec 1st… Btc ↓ 30% Eth, sol, & xrp ↓ around 40% Brutal timing after Vanguard waited nearly 2yrs to open up access.
US Mega Caps and International Stocks Yield Identical 55% Gains
US mega caps and international stocks... same return since the start of 2024 $XLG $VEU +55% https://t.co/ivvWB6wtEx
Equal‑Weighted S&P 500 Beats Mag 7 Amid Market Dip
The chart below shows that the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the Mag 7 by 12% over the past 3 months. The last time that happened was in the fall of 2024, and the time before was the spring of...
QQQ Likely Bottomed Feb, Bounce to 614 Ahead
$QQQ - The low for February is probably in though the low of the downtrend that started on January 28 probably isn't. I expect it to bounce to at least the 100 day MA at 614 before we get another...
13F Filers Dumped Bitcoin ETFs, Selling ~25k BTC
What did 13F filers do with the Bitcoin ETFs in Q4?? In what should not be much of a surprise -- they were sellers. Advisors and Hedge Funds (the two largest holder categories) were the biggest sellers. Overall 13F Filers sold...
Ritholtz Launches First Trend-Following ETF: A Watchlist Pick
Interesting… Ritholtz filing for first ETF. Trend following strategy. I like the Goaltending name/concept (a la Granny Shots another bball metaphor). Ben and Mike are the PMs. One to watch.
50‑Day MA Misleading in Rangebound SPY Market
There seems to be a lot of talk about the 🔵50 day moving average for $SPY If you recognize the market has been stuck in a range, you expect price to cross above and below the 50, that is a...
Leveraged ETFs Fees Rising, Unaffected by Vanguard Effect
Leveraged ETFs: The Last Stronghold of the 1% Fee.. check out how the asset-weighted avg fee of 2x ETFs is actually going UP. Only category totally immune from Vanguard Effect, which explains the $1b in ann revenue and the torrent...
QQQ Likely Stuck $600‑620 Amid Nasdaq Indecision
$QQQ Daily. Sideways for 5-6 months and now Nasdaq becoming even more indecisive short-term with pennant forming. $600-$620 rough range https://t.co/EP70gR3L5H
Growth-Value Pullback Persists Amid Long-Term Uptrend
i've been pointing out the various moving average changes on a variety of time frames with value $IVE vs. growth $VUG... all said, this 20+ year chart still looks like a growth vs. value pullback in the context of an uptrend......
Pullbacks Signal Buying Chance Before 5% S&P Drop
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
SPY Holds $
$spy morning glance as $680 range support helps again while we get a few RDR tactical buys in broken areas for cash flow https://t.co/avz7fuVMj0
Unpredictable Trades, Not Routine Patterns, Drive Outperformance
“…its limits may be more revealing than its success. The trades the system failed to anticipate — roughly 29% — were, on average, more closely associated with outperformance. In other words, the activity that falls outside routine, detectable investment patterns...
Bitcoin ETF Flows up $55B, Still #5 Overall
Yes, altho if you look at flows since Jan 2024 it STILL ranks #5 overall (only superhuman Vgrd ETFs did more), even after all this destruction. All told bitcoin ETF flows are still net net +$55b altho you'll be hard-pressed...
ETF Inflows Hit $304B, Doubling Record Pace
ETF inflows up to $304b YTD, which is DOUBLE the all-time record pace from last year. $VOO at $30b, also ahead of its record pace by 6b while Vanguard as whole is already at $100b, a $3b/day pace, and double...
Watching QQQ: Will Early Strength Hold Above $604.50?
$QQQ Now we watch to see if early strength holds or fades — key question is whether $604.50 now rejects price. https://t.co/2w0irZyLwP
High Yield Holds Steady While Financials Remain Short
While we're short the Financials $XLF , liquid High Yield $HYG hasn't signaled get out yet https://t.co/NhKXuZMmrb
Staying Short Financials XLF and XLY in Quad3
SECTORS: we remain short of the Financials $XLF and $XLY during a MONTHLY #Quad3 https://t.co/VUVE8GW3B6
Risk‑Off Wave Hits Financials, Sets Stage for NVDA
We started the week in full risk-off mode. $XLF broke support near 51, $MSFT continues to deteriorate, and $SPX is back testing 6800. Meanwhile gold surged and Bitcoin broke down. I walk through financials, defensive rotation, and key levels ahead of $NVDA. Watch...
ThemesETFs Files 30 New 2x Single-Stock ETFs, Targeting Smaller Caps
More 2x single stock ETF filings from @ThemesETFs. 30 on this filing. Issuers going further down the market cap spectrum. https://t.co/jWescSJO9t
Kurv Launches Income ETFs Targeting 2026 SpaceX, OpenAI IPOs
New: Kurv files options based income ETFs on a bunch of likely 2026 IPOs. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic https://t.co/D7HkiQNfBo
USCF Launches Iron Ore Index Fund for Futures
New: @USCFInvestments files for a an Iron Ore Index Fund. Will invest in Iron order futures contracts. https://t.co/RHtnD2joQb