Oil Spikes in Response to Trump's Iran War Stance
My comments on oil's reax to Trump's Iran war declarations in conversation with @AJEnglish earlier today.
Spring IPO Surge Attracts Billionaire Investors
Looks like this spring is shaping up to be a "Billionaire Bonanza" what with Musk, Lucky, Ackman, and others lining up with IPOs...
Sean Hannity Launches Free Podcast Beyond Fox Subscription
Sean Hannity says he's taking a different tack on his new podcast, which will make one of Fox News' truly signature personalities available to consumers off its traditional subscription-based platforms.... https://t.co/y28oaycPhx via @variety
Southwest Restricts Jumpseat Rides to Specific Staff
Southwest Airlines has updated its policy regarding which type of employees can fly in jumpseats. There's an interesting backstory to this policy change. https://t.co/Z9VIBO9xn0
Massive USO Flush Restores Trend in Final Hour
the massive $USO flush in final hour ystdy just brought it back to trend... https://t.co/qZjWtShXON
China’s Integrated Strategy Beats Fragmented Western Approach
🎯“China treats electricity, critical minerals, manufacturing, defence and infrastructure as one strategic system. Credit, permitting, refining, fabrication and demand scale together. Western systems fragment the same problem across central banks, markets, regulators and election cycles, assuming price signals will coordinate what...
United Slashes Mileage for Non‑Cardholders, Ads Devalue Passengers
United Is Cutting Mileage If You Don’t Have Their Credit Card — Now It’s Running Ads That Say You Matter Less - View from the Wing https://t.co/kOlqIZQIHx
Scale Exposes Weak Assumptions; Test Bets Early
Most strategies fail before execution. They fail when the bet is made. While in Paraguay preparing to speak on strategy, I reflected on a conversation with Brett Hickey of Star Mountain Capital about why scale exposes weak assumptions and how...
Fix Funnels Now or Rebrand First? Choose Wisely
I was in a discovery call this week with a large charity that's got two fundraising products in decline. Both showing appetite from users, but conversion rates are dropping. One product launched strong a few years back but has been falling...
Telecom Sector Grapples with Regulation, Competition, and Ownership Changes
■ @ATT CEO Desroches Sees Strong Growth Ahead for FWA ■ @RepGuthrie, @FrankPallone Write @POTUS Trump Concerned about China’s Telecom Influence ■ @NCTAitv Leader Wants to Avoid 50-State AI Regulatory Regime ■ IBT Official Disputes ACLP’s BEAD Location Count ■ City of Norway,...
Oil's Real Upside Remains Unpriced Amid Ongoing Tensions
$WTI hit $111 intraday. Pulled back to $97. Still up 70%+ YTD. Markets priced in a ceasefire that hasn't happened. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Unpopular opinion: the high for oil is not in yet. https://t.co/Ag4wJnGVhR
Investors Skeptical of OpenAI's Profitability Ahead of IPO
Investors are concerned about OpenAI's ability to turn a profit -> OpenAI’s IPO Hopes Face Skeptical Investor Community "The mood is mixed. Investors expect the company to raise tens or potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in its initial public...
Ukraine National Guard Adds Air Defense, Assault, Drone Regiments
Ukraine’s National Guard is forming air defense, assault, and unmanned systems regiments in its 1st and 2nd Corps.
MSC Halts Gulf Voyages, Adds $800 Surcharge Amid Iran Conflict
Iran war leads largest shipping line to terminate Mideast Gulf voyages, levy $800 charge: MSC diverting shipments to safe ports https://t.co/pnC0RAgj2Y
DIRECTV Urges FCC to See Nexstar's TEGNA Economic Data
D.C. Memo: @DIRECTV Claims Nexstar Needs to Provide @FCC with Economic Data Supporting @TEGNA Deal; The satellite TV operator says Nexstar withheld from FCC certain economic studies it provided the Justice Department. Nexstar had no comment |$NXST $TGNA https://t.co/Z0PKwvWRqH
Procurement's Shift: Speed and Partnerships Drive Innovation
For decades, procurement meant cutting costs. Negotiate a few cents off the unit price and move on. But in today’s procurement renaissance, speed and supplier relationships determine innovation and competitive advantage. Here’s why: https://t.co/7zkEo6RJ6H #supplychain https://t.co/VuiasOxP6U
America’s Iran Policy
If the war is “very complete”, what then has happened to “unconditional surrender”? Are we beginning to see a new TACO trade because Iran has successfully weaponized the oil price? Was this always only about decimating Iran’s military capacity, to then...
WWII U.S. Spare Capacity Went Negative, Oil Overproduced
For the history enthusiasts like my friend @Andrewtabler: During WWII US spare capacity actually went negative. In 1944, the oil industry pushed the fields beyond MSC to produce fuel for the final major offensives in the Pacific and Atlantic.
Bypasses and SPR only Buy Time; only Hormuz Reopening Solves
Oil bypass pipelines buy time, but don't solve the problem. SPR/IEA release would buy more time, but doesn't solve either. Ultimately, only one thing solves the problem: re-open the Strait of Hormuz. But rather than hitting the wall this...
Berkshire Targets Major Operating Ratio Boost for UNP, BNSF
Operating Ratio comparison for UNP and BNSF Greg Abel, 2025 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter: "The gap to the industry’s best remains too wide... We will be disappointed if we do not deliver a substantial [operating ratio] improvement over the next few...
Middle East Strikes and Oil Surge Amplify Global Risks
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
Trump Vows ‘Death, Fire, Fury’ over Hormuz Closure
Trump threatens ‘Death, Fire and Fury’ if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz The US President claims the war on Iran is "very complete" but also hasn’t ruled out taking over the Strait https://t.co/xy4DfQoYYm
New Risk Factor Makes Strait of Hormuz Too Costly.
"There's another big reason why shipping companies and insurers aren't willing to risk the Strait of Hormuz" https://t.co/vQRVNaMtNL https://t.co/xPjkCzHB0U
Eight Experts Analyze Today’s Oil Market Landscape
8 experts express their views about current oil market conditions. 👇👇👇👇 click on the link, then change the language in your browser.
From Human Review to Full Automation: AI’s Oncology Journey
Today, I gave a virtual talk to a leading pharma company's team about the future of oncology. As they asked me to focus on AI's role in that, I'll describe real-life and some hypothetical examples of how the 5 levels...
Officials Avoided Saying “Vaccine” For over a Year During Measles Outbreak
https://open.substack.com/pub/pauloffit/p/the-v-word?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web More than one year passed before a public health official said the "V" word during a recent measles epidemic. Why?
Higher Shipping Costs Prompt Longer Delivery Incentives, Works
With shipping costs on the rise, e-commerce companies like Amazon and Gap are incentivizing consumers to wait longer for packages. It’s working. https://t.co/wjlNTZ282g via @WSJ
Waymo Robotaxis Burden San Francisco with Hidden Costs
Uncovered records reveal the hidden costs of Waymo robotaxis on San Francisco streets https://t.co/4a5xP3IMq9 via @fastcompany
Iranian Official Warns Trump of Personal Elimination Risk
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - A top Iranian security official tells Trump: 'Be careful not to get eliminated yourself.'
Berkshire Vows Massive Energy Investment, Confident Future Record
2019 Berkshire Hathaway meeting Warren: "We will put a lot of money into energy... In 10 or 20 years, our record [at BHE] will be looked at and there will be nothing like it." Charlie: "We're in marvelous shape in this department......
Flatbed Spot Rates Surge; Reefer, Van Stabilize Near Peaks
Flatbed spot rates continue to surge with no sign of slowing, while reefer and van catch their breath near cycle highs https://t.co/NAcnZUr2rv
Trump Praises Putin as Ukraine Faces Renewed Snubs
1. Ukraine promptly answers a U.S. call to help with drone interceptors and sends its top experts to the Middle East. 2. Russia helps the Iranian regime with intel to kill Americans. As a result: 1. Russia and Putin gets praised and cherished...
Pershing Square Launches $5B Closed‑end IPO, Offers Management Shares
Pershing Square has filed for a $5 billion IPO of a closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA $PSUS. Additionally, Pershing Square Inc. will go public under the symbol $PS. Buyers of the closed-end fund IPO will also receive shares in the management company. Interesting...
December Crude and Corn Futures Poised Below $55, $4.60
Massive Short Cleansing or New Bull Market? Crude May Follow Gas - The invisible hand can be quite efficient in autocorrelated commodities, and crude oil and corn producers may have just received a chance to hedge and bring on more...
Copper Emerges as Critical Mineral Driving Global Growth
It was a pleasure to talk about ‘The Dawn of the Age of Copper’ at the U.S. Capital Access Forum in Singapore. It’s never easy to follow a keynote from @DonaldJTrumpJr, but copper is always a show-stopper… Many thanks to Hall...
Iceland and Norway React as Trump Eyes Greenland
As Trump has been screaming into the void about acquiring Greenland, the wheels over in #Iceland and #Norway are starting to turn. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wGaex4mPph #eu #europeanunion #geopolitics https://t.co/7SEnZinGjq
Market Hopeful Trump Hints Iran War Ending, but Caution Remains
The market is hopeful that President Trump signaled the war on Iran may be nearly over. Still, more than a grain of salt ought to be given to public pronouncements as the Strait still seems mostly shut and Europe...
Strategic Air Command Marks 80 Years at RAeS
This Thursday (12 March) at RAeS HQ - 'Strategic Air Command An 80th Anniversary Retrospective' given by Robert Hopkins #avgeek #history #aviation https://t.co/jmALGABT21 https://t.co/QH7KMZ5kbs
December Corn Caps Near $5 Amid Rising Stocks
Did December Corn Peak Near $5? Corn's $5-a-bushel ceiling may have solidified due to the Iran war. When December corn (Dec26) began trading in 2022 at about the same price as on March 9 near $4.85 a bushel, US ending stocks...
Media Silence on Israeli Displacement versus Lebanese Coverage
If three-quarters of a million Israeli civilians had been driven out of their homes by Lebanon's army and left with nowhere to go, this would be headline news in every Western media outlet. But when the Israeli army does this...
Hedge Funds Keep US Gas Bets Low After Iran Attack
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers had cut bullish positions in U.S. natural gas to the lowest for more than 18 months before the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Even after the attack and the closure of the Strait...
Singapore Logistics Costs May Jump 50% Amid Middle East Tensions
Singapore logistics firms could face 50% cost surge as Middle East cargo stalls amid tensions https://t.co/lsmWGoECEs
US Retail Container Imports Set to Decline Amid Tariff Uncertainty
U.S.-bound retail container import volumes are expected to see annual declines over the first half of the year, due to ongoing tariff-driven uncertainty & potentially the Iran conflict according to the latest Global Port Tracker report. https://t.co/hASNRjFabC
European Gas Prices Plunge 17% After Trump’s Market Reassurance
European gas prices drop after Trump’s effort to calm the market 📉📉 Dutch TTF futures fell as much as 17%, the biggest intraday decline since 2023 Prices had been steadily rising over the last week following the closure of the world’s largest...
Earn Lifetime Executive Platinum with AAdvantage Million Miler
American AAdvantage offers a million miler program, which can earn you up to Executive Platinum status for life. Here's everything to know about how this program works. https://t.co/Opg7F2rQle
Exxon Shifts Legal Domicile to Texas to Dodge Shareholder Abuse
SCOOP: Exxon is planning to leave New Jersey to make Texas its legal home, the latest company to flock to the Lone Star state. I spoke to Exxon CEO Darren Woods about the decision; he said Exxon wants to guard...
Diesel Prices Jump yet Remain Below COVID Highs
Diesel prices have surged, but still far lower than the peaks set during COVID https://t.co/WJoutp3QcO
Export Routes Matter More than Production Amid US‑Iran War
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
Angry Ambulance Chaser Called Out as Societal Leech
Ambulance chaser getting angry because I called them out for being what they are: leaches to society
Flatbed Rejection Hits Record 48.74%, Boosting Industry
Flatbed rejection rates go hyperbolic, at 48.74%, a new all time high. This is a sign of further strengthening of the industrial economy. https://t.co/PTalyYhFiO