Mortgage Insurers End 1Q26 Below Expectations for Volume
Private mortgage insurers posted a 13% quarter‑over‑quarter drop in new business, writing $76.7 billion of insurance in Q1 2026 versus $87.7 billion at the end of 2025, though the figure remains well above the $57.9 billion recorded a year earlier. Lower mortgage rates in the low‑6% range helped the six active underwriters increase total volume 32% year‑over‑year. MGIC stayed on top with $165.3 million net income despite a 11% YoY decline, while Radian integrated its Inigo acquisition to create two non‑correlated insurance lines. Arch Capital added a $2.2 billion non‑GSE transaction, lifting its total Q1 volume to $14.8 billion.
Keep Winners, Cut Losers: Hold TSLA, AAPL,
📺 I SOLD $AMZN & $GOOGL BUT HOLDING $TSLA & $AAPL FOR THIS REASON $TSLA has been a high-momentum trade since the $368 Red Dog Reversal, and instead of exiting, I’ve been scaling: adding on strength, trimming into extensions, and rebuying...
Core Scientific's AI Pipeline Drives Funding, Margin Expansion Expected
AI compute demand drives Core Scientific's 3GW pipeline funded by $3.3B notes; execution and margins lag and CoreWeave concentration raise risk. Trade: buy CORZ on confirmed margin expansion — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
West Asia Crisis a ‘Live Stress Test’ for India’s Balance of Payments, Says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran
India’s chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran warned that the West Asia crisis has become a live balance‑of‑payments stress test for the country, pressuring inflation, the current account and the rupee. He highlighted a 48% jump in Brent crude, a 500% surge...
Homeowner Insolvencies Surge to 2009 Crisis Levels
Why Are Bankruptcies & Insolvencies Growing So Fast? They Have Reached 2009 World Financial Crisis Levels Main Reasons: - The Collapse of Residential Real Estate - Growing Unemployment in Full Time Jobs - Inflation Destroys Affordability This will likely get much worse The most striking aspect...
Indian Markets Lose Over ₹8 Lakh Crore in Two Days
On May 11, Sensex dropped 1,313 pts (1.7%) to 76,015 Nifty fell 360 pts (1.49%) to 23,816 amid global tensions and risk-off selling. Reports show ~₹6.4-8.9 lakh crore erased from BSE market cap that day alone. Cumulative over the...
Inflation Shock: US Stock Futures Drop as Oil Surges Amid Middle East Tensions
U.S. stock futures opened lower as April CPI rose 3.8% YoY, slightly above expectations, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield near 4.45%. The surge in oil prices—WTI at $101.60 and Brent at $107.70—was driven by stalled U.S.–Iran talks and concerns over...
Fuel‑price Shock Persists as SPR Nears Historic Low
Headline inflation increased 3.3 -> 3.8% in April, although Core PCE was 2.6 -> 2.8%. Trump authorized a 53MM bbl release from the SPR yesterday and said that he’ll suspend the federal fuel tax. But assuming that inflation is driven principally...
Home Sale Tax Exemption Stuck Since 1997, Needs Update
The capital gains tax exemption ($250k/$500k) on the sale of your home hasn't been adjusted for inflation since 1997. It would be ~$500k/~$1M today if adjusted. With the housing boom since 2020, should Congress adjust it for inflation?
Sonnenblick-Eichner Company Arranges $110,000,000 of First Mortgage Financing For Hotel Nia, Menlo Park, California
Real‑estate investment bank Sonnenblick‑Eichner arranged a $110 million first‑mortgage loan for Hotel Nia, an 11‑story, 250‑room Autograph Collection property in Menlo Park, California. The non‑recourse, floating‑rate loan carries a credit spread of less than 400 basis points over SOFR and is funded...
Bank of America Revamps Nebius Stock Price Target Ahead of Earnings
Bank of America raised its price target on Nebius Group to $205 from $175, keeping a buy rating ahead of the company’s Q1 2026 earnings on May 13. The note highlights two execution metrics: the rollout of data‑center capacity to...
CME to Launch Compute Futures Market This Year
CME Group $CME just announced plans to launch "compute futures market later this year, pending regulatory review."
Xi’s Leverage Forces US to Rethink Taiwan Policy
FT says Xi now holds most of the cards ahead of the Trump meeting Liberation Day tariffs flopped once China’s critical mineral chokehold started shutting U.S. factories Now the Iran war fiasco has weakened Washington further EXPECT A REVISION OF THE US POSITION...
Scarlet Therapeutics Secures $4 Million Seed Round After Lab‑Grown Blood Mirrors Donor Survival
Scarlet Therapeutics announced a $4 million seed funding round alongside data showing its lab‑grown universal red blood cells survive in the bloodstream as long as donor‑derived cells. The result validates a key performance metric for engineered blood products and positions the...
J.P. Morgan Private Bank Issues 2026 Mid-Year Outlook, Flagging Fragmentation, Inflation and AI
J.P. Morgan Private Bank released its 2026 Mid-Year Global Investment Outlook, "Promise and Pressure," outlining how geopolitical fragmentation, stubborn inflation and artificial intelligence are reshaping portfolios. The report cites soaring defense stocks, a 130% gold rally and low infrastructure exposure...
AI Wealth Drives San Francisco Luxury Home Prices Up 16% YTD, Defying National Slowdown
San Francisco's housing market surged in the first four months of 2026, with median listings up 16.2% to $998,400 and luxury homes climbing 4.7% to $3.84 million. The boom is tied to an influx of AI‑sector talent earning massive compensation, creating...
Complex Recap Unnecessary; Simple Share Buyback Suffices
The company has capex needs, expects minimal growth next year. Costs will rise. Raising ¥250bn to buy back shares raises debt/EBITDA by more than one turn. This is easy. Buy back stock at X. Re-issue it years later at X...
Defiance Quantum ETF: The Infrastructure Of Tomorrow
The Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) provides diversified exposure to quantum computing, AI chips, and machine learning by tracking the BlueStar Quantum Computing and Machine Learning Index. The fund holds roughly 86 securities with a modified equal‑weight approach, capping each at...
AST SpaceMobile Posts $14.7M Q1 Revenue, Reaffirms $150‑200M 2026 Outlook
AST SpaceMobile posted $14.7 million in first‑quarter revenue, driven by U.S. government contracts and gateway hardware sales, and reiterated its 2026 revenue target of $150‑200 million. The company’s $3.5 billion cash pile and a $1.2 billion commercial pipeline underpin optimism, while Alphabet’s stake drops...
Dollar Gains as Oil and CPI Lift Fed Hike Bets, but Risk Appetite Holds Firm
The dollar rose broadly as April CPI jumped to 3.8% YoY and core inflation to 2.8%, nudging Fed‑fund futures toward a 28% chance of another rate hike. Oil prices surged, with Brent above $107 and WTI over $100, driven by...
Brookfield Corp Eyes Strong Q1 2026 Earnings as AI-Driven Real Estate Surge Looms
Brookfield Corp is set to release its first‑quarter 2026 earnings on May 14, and investors will scrutinize REIT income and asset‑sale guidance. The firm signals a rebound in real‑estate earnings, bolstered by strong performance at its infrastructure and renewable units...
AIRR: The Re-Industrialization Alpha
First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF (AIRR) targets U.S. reshoring and manufacturing renaissance themes, heavily weighting industrials and community banks with a mid‑cap tilt. The fund has outperformed peer ETFs by over 5% YTD, driven by fiscal stimulus, expanded...
Markel Canada Leverages AI Pricing, Dip‑Buy Opportunity
Macro: Insurers adopt AI—Markel Canada partners with hyperexponential to modernize pricing. Key factors: current ratio 3.22 funds capex; risk: MKL Q1 EPS/rev miss. Trade: monitor MKL for a disciplined dip-buy. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
USTs Enter Depression Phase, Accept Potential Rate Hike Cycle
Looks like USTs are past denial, anger and bargaining, and well on their way to depression and acceptance of the possibility of a hike cycle.
Ramit Sethi Unveils Ten ‘Money Dials’ to Redefine Personal Budgeting
Personal‑finance author Ramit Sethi released a framework of ten “money dials,” guiding readers to prioritize discretionary spending that matches their values. The model, highlighted on his website and in recent media, aims to help people tune their budgets for a...
Korean AI Dividend Proposal Triggers 5% KOSPI Slide
This is a pretty interesting story from Korea last night. One politicians posted something about establishing a public AI "dividend", and the KOSPI quickly plunged over 5% (before cutting its losses) https://t.co/Xn6m2Oglko https://t.co/DZap3k2hSM
UK Bond Yields Surge to Cycle Highs
CHART OF THE DAY: UK Bond Yields Continue To Ramp To Cycle Highs https://t.co/1BC0xEY8uF via @hedgeye
April Inflation Shoots 3.8% Higher on Surging Prices From War in Iran
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.8% year‑over‑year in April 2025, largely driven by a surge in energy costs linked to the ten‑week war with Iran. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% from March and are now more than 28% higher than a year...
CVEO Uses 75% FCF for Buybacks, Cuts Shares 28%
$CVEO Capital allocation policy = spend 75% of FCF on buybacks annually Shares outstanding down ~28% over past 3 years https://t.co/4sJtQ57Wij
Chinese Nationalists Cite Trump as Proof of East’s Rise
China increasingly casts itself as a superpower poised to surpass America.Chinese nationalists say they have Mr. Trump to thank. America under his rule,they say, validates Xi’s worldview centered on “the rise of the East and decline of the West.”My latest...
Mazda Posts 69% Profit Drop as Production Slows, Rethinks Compact Lineup
Mazda Motor Corp announced a 69% plunge in full‑year net profit to ¥35.1 billion ($226 million), driven by a 2% dip in revenue and weaker production volumes. The decline has spurred the automaker to reassess its compact‑car strategy, especially in markets like...
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
Free May Put Spread: Sell on Strength, Capture IV Drop
$ONON "Trade Idea 1: Buy the May 34/32.50-32 1×2 Put Spread for free." sell to close a 34/32.50 put spread near $1.50 on any strength in stock, let IV fall then can buy to close remaining put or watch
SanDisk’s 2025 Spin‑Off Fuels $200 B Market Cap as AI Storage Boom Accelerates
SanDisk completed its spin‑off from Western Digital in February 2025 and has since surged more than 550% this year, lifting its market value above $200 billion. The rally is powered by exploding AI‑driven demand for NAND flash, while the company locks in...
CME and Silicon Data Launch Computing Power Futures
Big news 🧵: CME Group Inc., the largest US derivatives exchange, and Silicon Data are teaming up to create a futures market for computing power, a key factor needed to help power the AI boom. 1/
Kaltura Posts $44.6M Q1 Revenue, Sees 37% EBITDA Jump Amid AI Push
Kaltura (KLTR) posted $44.6 million in total Q1 2026 revenue, a 5% year‑over‑year decline, while adjusted EBITDA surged 37% to $5.7 million, a record for the quarter. The company credited AI‑powered avatar technology and the recent PathFactory acquisition for offsetting weaker media‑and‑telecom...
AD Lines Break S&P 500 Uptrend Since April
As more stocks decline than advance, the 5-, 21- and cumulative Advance-Decline Lines have all been diverging away from the uptrend in the S&P 500 since April 20th. https://t.co/NFeXr8zs3b
Chevron's Energy Forge Seeks $227 M Texas Tax Break for Gas Plant Powering Data Center
Chevron subsidiary Energy Forge One has filed for a $227 million tax abatement under Texas’ JETI Act for a new gas‑fired power plant in West Texas that will serve a data center. The request, backed by a Pecos‑Barstow‑Toyah school board endorsement,...
PFF: The Rewards Do Not Justify The Risk
PFF’s portfolio is roughly one‑third mandatory convertible preferred shares, a segment that has driven a disproportionate share of its performance. While these securities have added return, the fund’s overall returns still lag the broader preferred‑share category. The heavy exposure also...
GoPro COO McGee Charts New Sales Strategy as Q1 Revenue Falls 26%
GoPro President and COO Brian McGee presented a revised sales and distribution plan on the Q1 2026 earnings call as the company posted a 26% revenue decline to $99 million. The shift emphasizes direct‑to‑consumer channels while the board launches a strategic...
Hedge Funds Snap Up Distressed Litigation Finance Assets at 10% of Value
Hedge funds such as Davidson Kempner and Attestor are buying litigation‑finance claims at valuations as low as 10 cents on the dollar, exploiting a slump in a $20 billion market. The move reflects a broader shift toward illiquid, distressed assets as regulatory...
Fidelity Flags Three ETF Trading Traps as U.S. Assets Hit $13.46 Trillion
Fidelity’s ETF Management & Strategy Team warned investors that three common execution mistakes—ignoring bid‑ask spreads, using market orders, and trading at market open or close—are eroding returns. The alert comes as U.S. ETF assets surged to a record $13.46 trillion with...
Philippines House Sends Vice President Sara Duterte to Senate Impeachment Trial After 257‑Vote Vote
The Philippine House of Representatives approved articles of impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte with a 257‑25 vote, forwarding the case to the Senate. The move comes as Senate President Vicente Sotto III was ousted in a leadership coup, raising...
Barclays Flags Rheinmetall and Leonardo as Undervalued Amid 2026 European Defence Pullback
Barclays retains overweight ratings on German arms maker Rheinmetall and Italy's Leonardo, arguing that the recent 2026 sell‑off in European defence equities has over‑penalised the two firms. The broker points to robust order backlogs, expanding ammunition and vehicle exposure, and...
Krafton Pushes PUBG Beyond Battle Royale, Hits 1 Trillion‑won Q1 Revenue
Krafton reported a 24% year‑on‑year rise in PUBG franchise revenue, topping 1 trillion won ($740 million) in the first quarter. The surge was powered by new cooperative modes XenoPoint and the upcoming PAYDAY heist, signaling a strategic pivot from pure battle‑royale to a...
Babcock & Wilcox Shares Jump Over 20% After Q1 Earnings Miss but 44% Revenue Surge
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises reported first‑quarter revenue of $214.4 million, a 44% year‑over‑year increase, but posted a net loss of $80.7 million, widening from $25.7 million a year earlier. Despite the earnings miss, the stock surged 25% in trading, driven by massive AI...
Global Copper Smelting Nosedives in April
Global copper smelting activity plunged in April, driven by a confluence of factors rather than a single event. Maintenance schedules in China curtailed production, while major smelters in Iran and Australia were offline. Chile's flagship Chuquicamata plant reported patchy operations,...
The Artistic Works Exemption in CIS: What Contractors Need to Know
HMRC’s Construction Industry Scheme (CIS) excludes work that is purely artistic, meaning contractors do not need to apply CIS deductions to items such as freestanding sculptures or canvas murals that have no functional building purpose. By contrast, artworks that serve...
Botswana’s 2026 Growth Outlook Trimmed to 3.7% Amid Diamond Volatility and Fuel‑Price Inflation
Economist Keith Jefferis says Botswana’s GDP is likely to rise only 3.7% in 2026, down from the IMF’s 4.7% forecast, as diamond output volatility, a war‑driven fuel shock and inflation above 10% weigh on the economy. The outlook highlights the...
AI‑Driven Data‑Centre Bonds Surge to $40 Bn, Redefining High‑Yield Market
AI‑related high‑yield bond issuance has exploded to nearly $40 bn, with about $30 bn issued since the start of the year. The new subsector now accounts for roughly 1.6% of the global and 2.6% of the U.S. high‑yield bond indices, prompting active...